D3Tennis National Indoor Thoughts

I know the NCAAs determines the national champion and encompasses the entire D3 field, but there’s always been something about Indoors that was appealing, so I decided to write a cameo preview. This is always the true kickoff to the season, the first time when top teams meet. I think it’s great the tournament will be at a new venue this year. Historically, I have looked at first round matches when doing this preview, but instead I will go with a brief team-by-team overview since the matches this year are difficult to predict.

Wash U
The Bears lost in the finals of Indoors for 3 consecutive years and inexplicably decided to skip this tournament last year. Wash U’s performance here has traditionally been just like their NCAA performance: very solid but they are not the best team. This year is particularly interesting because of the Bears’ young team. Wash U has has always seemed to have an experienced roster and this plays to their benefit late in the season, but this year it looks like to the Bears will have 4 first time starters in singles. I think that they will be pushed, but not defeated, in a first round match with Redlands. This sets up a blockbuster match with a Trinity team that everyone is very high on this year. Trinity hasn’t always been the best team at Indoors, so despite what make look like a weaker roster, I’m going with history in this one. Unfortunately, I don’t see Wash U toppling whoever comes out of the bottom half in the final. I’m projecting a Wash U-Emory final which is always a great match, but the Eagles are going to be too talented for this Bears team. It’s important for Wash U to get a good finish at this tournament because they have not started their season well the past couple years and were forced to come up with some miracles late in the season.

Redlands
I was very surprised when I saw Redlands was going to attend Indoors. Since I’ve been covering D3, the Bulldogs have not attended despite being eligible numerous times. That said, they’ve also had a string of disappointing seasons, so maybe they are looking for a change this year and have decided to get some good competition in an uncomfortable environment. I’m a believer that teams should always attend Indoors budget permitting, so I’m glad to see the Bulldogs in this tournament. They have a tough first round match against Wash U and will most likely find their way into the tough Saturday consolation bracket with a probable match against conference rival Cal Lu. I’m going to go with Redlands due to their depth. No matter who they take on in the 5th and 6th match, I think it’s going to be a little too much for them to handle. I expect Redlands standard mid-teens finish this year and I think their performance at this tournament will represent that well.

Cal Lutheran
I can’t think of another player besides Nick Ballou who can change the outlook of a team so drastically. I’ve been informed by the bloggers to operate under the assumption that he is not playing. Despite having some solid players at the top of the lineup, I have trouble believing the Kingsmen can compete at this tournament without him. Unless they have some hidden weapons that I’m not aware of, I don’t think they can beat Trinity or finish any better than 6th. Their best bet at a victory will most likely come in the consolation when they take on Redlands. This could have potential NCAA and SCIAC tournament seeding implications, where avoiding the 4 seed in the conference tournament is crucial. My pick is still Redlands due to their depth and doubles and I think Cal Lu winds up the 7th place match, where they most likely face Hopkins or Case. Both teams overmatch the Kingsmen. I hate picking the last place finisher at Indoors, but I think the Kingsmen match their 2011 Indoors finish.

Trinity TX
A lot of people are high on Trinity heading into the season and understandably so. They have all the necessary parts to make a run at the top 5 this year, but I have been down this road before with this team and it backfired. There’s no doubt that the Tigers have established themselves as a solid #7-10 team each year. What people forget is that the leap from that area into the top 5 is a very big one. It requires consistency and it’s probably going to require a very good finish at Indoors, a place Trinity has historically struggled. The Tigers will have too much depth for their first round opponent, but the real test will come in the semis. Wash U is a vulnerable team this year, and if Trinity really thinks they are going to compete with the big boys, this is a match they should win. However, history tells me to go with the seasoned powerhouse so I’m going to lean in favor of the Bears. Trinity will probably meet the Kenyon-Case winner for 3rd, which is a match they should win. A 3rd place finish is very good, but I’m not sure if its worthy of a #5 national ranking with CMS and the NESCAC missing at this tournament.

Kenyon
People are sleeping on the Lords this year and that’s a big mistake. They got hit hard with graduations, but the last time that happened and people (myself included) were counting them out, they made their way to the final 8 and finished with a top 10 ranking. I expect a repeat performance of that this year. Their first match at this tournament will be a true test for them. Case is hungry for a big win, especially after letting a golden opportunity slip away in the last year’s Sweet 16. The Spartans would love nothing more than to knock off the defending Indoor champions at home. For Kenyon, this is an important match to get back on track after a disappointing end to last season. I have to pick Kenyon in this because of history, but I think the Lords fall pretty easily to Emory in the semifinals. The 3rd place match against Trinity will be another good test for Kenyon and we will see how much gas they have left in the tank. Kenyon has usually performed well at this tournament. I can’t remember them ever losing in the first round and keeping that trend going this year is very important.

Case Western
This is an amazing opportunity for Case and they have nothing to lose. Their results the past several years have cemented a spot in the second tier of teams. What’s difficult is further upward mobility. Case still lacks a signature and memorable victory, and although they did beat Wash U last year, they gave that win back at the UAA tournament. Case is going to battle against Kenyon and I know they want it badly. They will have their chances and this will be a tight match, but it all depends on who comes through at the big moments. In last year’s match between Case and Kenyon, it was the Lords who were tougher, and because of that I have to go with them again. A win in this quarterfinal is crucial because the loser probably has a consolation date with Hopkins after a very difficult match the day before. I have to go with Hopkins over Case in the consolation semifinal, but the Spartans should be able to salvage a disappointing tournament with a victory in the 7th place match. Once again, a great opportunity for Case, but it all depends on the opening match.

Johns Hopkins
Two years ago when JHU made their breakthrough into the Final 8, I thought they had finally put the pieces together. Judging by their performance last year, I’m not sure that’s entirely true. JHU turned in pretty mediocre 2013 performance which began with their shocking loss to CLU where they were embarrassed in doubles. It ended with a weak effort against a beatable Middlebury team. The 2014 Hopkins squad is a big question mark for me, but they will be tested immediately against Emory, a team who they have never beaten. I don’t see that streak ending in this match, but Hopkins should have the benefit of getting the loser of what will be a war between Kenyon and Case. This consolation semi is a match Hop should definitely win, putting them in the 5th place match against a team that will probably be from California. A 5th place finish will be a good performance for JHU given their unlucky draw and we will see if they can take some Indoors momentum and keep it going into March.

Emory
Kenyon was somehow able to end the streak of Emory, GAC or Cruz winning Indoors for 12 consecutive years, but you can bet that made the Eagles angry. Emory is fresh off a down year. They didn’t win Indoors or the UAA title, they lost in the quarterfinals of nationals a year after winning the title, and their streak of 13 consecutive years finishing inside the top 5 ended with a #6 finish. Let’s put all of that behind us because the Eagles are back and I see them as the favorite to win this tournament. Last year’s inexperienced team now has an additional year under their belt and when you combine that with a great freshman class as always, you get the best roster at this tournament. The Eagles had battles with Trinity and Kenyon last year, and I think they are going to have to grind their way through 3 matches this year. Eric Halpern hasn’t been in the early season singles lineup, but the hope is he will be ready to go for Indoors. I think the Eagles win all of their matches 6-3 or closer, but the important thing for Emory is to remember the bumps they took last year and not enter this tournament overconfident.