Preseason Individual Predictions: Ayeeeeee South

A D3AS article before the wee hours of 2AM on a weekday?  That’s right, I’m putting down some effort and giving you guys some reading material for your day off (if you live on the East Coast).  Unfortunately, that means taking a page out of the newbie D3Northeast’s book and getting out my predictions for the Atlantic South Individual rankings.  Since he worked it so well last time, I’m going to use the same format and hope the sharks of the ASouth like it just as much.  Again, the players are listed with no order whatsoever within each tier.  Even though those words are bold, I expect there might be some outrage.  I won’t respond to that.

Locks

Eric Halpern (Emory), Abhishek Alla (Carnegie Mellon), Tanner Brown (Hopkins), Robert Kjellberg (North Carolina Wesleyan)

Comments: I’m not going to provide you all with the crazy “Most Likely” scenarios.  I’ll just give you some more detail in the comments sections.  These four players are clear locks in the ASouth to make individuals in the ASouth, obviously barring injury.  We all know Alla was the Fall Nationals Champion, and his game is way too good to lose every single one of his matches and drop out of the top 8.  After all, he is currently the #1 player in the nation.  He’s also coming off a win over Duquesne #1 (Division 1) which shows he can clearly compete with the best again after the winter off-season.  In regards to Halpern and Brown, I really don’t think there is any doubt that they’ll be in the tournament either.  Halpern continuously makes nationals and placed 5^th in the Fall National Circuit, while Brown lost to Mark Kahan last year in Individuals.  Both guys are bona-fide #1 players, and belong in the top 15 at least in the nation.  With plenty of in-region opportunities, neither player will come close to missing out on the Big Dance.  Lastly, Kjellberg seems to be an interesting case.  He had a rough Fall ITA, but he is the Fall National Runner-Up from just last year.  He’s also the only true legit player on NCW, and you know that they’ll do their best to make sure he makes NCAAs.  He has two VERY IMPORTANT matches against UMW (Carey) and Hopkins (Brown).  He takes one of those, he’s in.  I say he does.

Very Likely

Tyler Carey (Mary Washington)

Comments: I just didn’t feel comfortable putting more than 1 person in this section.  D3Northeast essentially filled out this section with the rest of his field, which I think is super nuts.  There’s no way we can predict the season, especially on an individual basis.  Carey makes this list for two reasons:

1)      He has the talent to go to nationals and certainly deserves to be there.

2)      He is in a good position to make them, playing #1 for a ranked team that has a lot of in-region matches.

Combine those two reasons, and you get a guy that is very likely to make nationals as a #4 or #5 out of the region.  He showed us in the fall that he could take down Shamshiri of Washington & Lee, and given that he plays #1, he probably won’t see many of the other guys chasing him.  He may run into some trouble if Emory/CMU/Hopkins all throw a #2 at him and they all win, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen that in my time blogging or playing.  If I were to make some bets right now (don’t worry, I’m not) I’d bet that Carey makes it in with pretty good odds.

Likely

Taylor Shamshiri (Washington & Lee), Alex Ruderman (Emory), Christian Heaney-Secord (CMU), Ian Wagner (Emory), Ben Hwang (Hopkins), Rafe Mosetick (Emory)

Comments: D3 Atlantic South, this math doesn’t add up! You have more than 8 players that are either guaranteed, most likely, or likely to get into individuals at the end of the year!  Yes – I’m well aware, readers.  However, I simply couldn’t take any of these guys out of the likely category.  I actually did want to add two more guys, but I simply couldn’t (you’ll see later).  Let’s start with Shamshiri, who I’ve notoriously been tough on throughout his career.  I think he’s a good bet out of these guys in the Likely scenario, simply because he plays #1.  He has matches set up against UMW, CMU, Emory, and Hopkins.  If he takes any one of those matches, he most likely gets into Individuals.  However, he sat out of W&L’s first match, albeit it was against Methodist, so there’s some doubt as to where he is right now.  I hope he comes back and takes one of those matches so we can see what he can do in the singles individuals.

The next section of “Likely” candidates poses to be the most interesting.  All of these guys have the potential to play #2 singles for their teams.  (Note: Emory has three #2 players. FYI to all you national haters)  I list them all as likely because I honestly don’t know who is better between all of these guys.  If I were to choose right now, I’d probably choose Heaney-Secord and Mosetick out of this pack.  Heaney-Secord made nationals last year, and he beat almost everyone in the region, Halpern included.  He has the game to make it back and has key matches against Hopkins, UMW, and W&L.  He also potentially has Emory at UAAs if it comes down to that.  The reason why I am choosing Mosetick is because he had an absolutely stellar fall ITA.  He’s currently ranked #3 in the region (lulz) but he absolutely needs to play #2 to make this tournament in my opinion.  If he breezes through #2, which any of the Emory guys should, then he’ll make individuals.  Unfortunately, this means that two Emory guys and Ben Hwang are left out.  That doesn’t seem fair.  It’ll be extremely interesting to see these #2 battles happen throughout the season.  After writing this second part of the paragraph… I feel a lot worse about Shamshiri’s chances.  Let’s throw Hwang in my picks instead.

Maybe if they played in the Central

Will Duncan (CMU), Erik Lim (Hopkins), Michael Holt (W&L), Evan Charles (UMW), Whoever plays #2 for NCW, EDIT: Anthony Collard (Swat), Luis Acaba (Haverford)

Comments: I’m taking digs at everyone here.  But honestly, out of this group, I wish Duncan/Lim/Holt got the chance to go to nationals.  Holt probably has the best shot considering he’s definitely a very solid player, he plays #2, and he probably has the best chance at playing #1 by the end of the season.  He took down Miller of Methodist just this past week.  Although that’s not an amazing win, it’s an in-region win over a #1 player.  If Shamshiri goes down or gets demoted for any reason, Holt is the next man up and I think he can steal a match to sneak in.  The other guys, I don’t have as much hope for.  There’s only so many opportunities you can get a #3 guy, and that’s the case for Duncan and Lim.  Both are probably in the top 5 #3 players in the nation.  But being the best #3 doesn’t get you anywhere from an individual perspective.  That’s the story of the rankings.  Charles is an interesting case because I personally don’t think that he has the ability to pull off enough upsets to make nationals.  He’d have to pass Carey, who seems to have solidified himself as the true #1 on Mary Washington.  It’ll be tough to make the tournament as a #2 for Mary Washington – he’ll have to beat one of the scary Emory trio, Heaney-Secord, or Hwang.  All those guys have more proven track records.

EDIT: Adding Collard of Swarthmore and Acaba of Haverford into this section.  These guys play #1 for their respective teams, but I simply don’t believe they will be in national consideration by the end of the year. Collard got beaten by Duncan of CMU, and Acaba got beaten handily by Zheng of CMU, who plays #5.  Neither of those guys will most likely make it, and I highly doubt that either of these two will make it as well.  They will have some opportunities as #1 players, but the chances are low that they make it into the dance.

If Coach Browning is drunk when he does rankings

Duncan Miller (Methodist), Johan Ljungdahl (NCW), Jeremy Novick (Washington College)

Comments: These are guys I just felt like mentioning, but don’t really have a true chance of making nationals.  I’m not even sure if Ljungdahl even plays for Wesleyan anymore.  Miller basically lost his chance of making it by losing to Holt of W&L.  Novick won the B5 Draw at Fall ITA’s so there’s that.

Well, that’s that y’all.  I’m unbelievably excited for what this season brings for us, especially for those last few spots of nationals.  There are probably 11-12 deserving candidates to make it, and it’s going to be a dogfight.  And always remember – Emory has that Browning advantage (kidding, but really).  Look out for an Indoors preview from an old friend soon, as well as some thoughts from our new writers. #killinit