2014 Season Preview: Bates Bobcats

Overview: Bates has been a bit of a mystery over the past few years. For the better part of the last decade they have had a lot of talent including a national singles runner-up and a championship doubles pair, a national singles semifinalist, and 4 All Americans, but have failed to break into the NESCAC elite. In the last couple of years, they’ve become slightly deeper (but only slightly) and have brought in a couple of nice recruiting classes. This year is no different, but every coach knows that the arrival of a new recruiting class means the departure of some important seniors. Besides Williams, I believe the team in the region that will be most impacted by graduation will be the Bates Bobcats. Bringing in a recruiting class of three 3+ star caliber players should make any coach smile, but in some cases the addition three talented freshman just doesn’t add up to the departure of two vital seniors. With the departure of Crampton and Bettles, Berg and Planche do have the ability to step into the #1/2 spots, but the move will further weaken the Bobcats’ depth.. If Berg and Planche move up, I don’t believe Bates will win most matches at 3&4 and they will likely continue to drop matches at the historically weak 5&6 spots as well. However, luckily for Bates, doubles is still played first. Berg/Planche will be one of the strongest teams in the region, and likely have a shot to do some damage at NCAA’s. After that, Yanofsky and Ordway are both giants with big serves. Nothing from the fall would suggest them playing together, and history would tell us that Coach Gastonguay has a good eye for doubles teams, but man would that be a fun team to watch! This will likely leave Bates in a similar hole to years past when their 3 doubles was considerably weaker than their top 2. Unless either a senior or a freshman steps up (and the Bobcats might need more than one), the front loaded Bobcats will continue to champion NESCAC mediocrity.

Head Coach: Paul Gastonguay (18^th year)

Location: Lewiston, Maine

2011 Regional Ranking: 9^th (National Ranking: 26^th)

2012 Regional Ranking: 5^th  (National Ranking: 16^th)

2013 Regional Ranking:  7^th (National Ranking: 23^rd)

2014 Projected Regional Ranking: 7^th 

2014 Projected National Ranking: 25^th     

Best case scenario: The freshman really take the off-season seriously; one of the seniors anchors the bottom of the lineup; Bates wins all of their “toss up” matches and finish the season with losses only to the NESCAC top 4, Hopkins, and CMS; finishes the season as the #5 seed in the NESCAC; and stuns a Polar Bear team in the first round of NESCACs that will have been looking ahead to its matchup with the regular season conference champion. That win finally gets the Bobcats over the NCAA hump and they fly into the tournament as a #2 seed in a northeast region with a beatable #3 team (eg MIT/Skid). They win a round of the tournament before getting blanked by Midd or Amherst.

WORST CASE SCENARIO: Bates discovers that losing 4/6 singles spots is not beneficial towards beating the middle of D3 tennis let alone the elite. The Bobcats go 0/4 on their Cali trip and drop close matches to Wesleyan, Tufts, Mary Wash, NC Wesleyan, and even Trinity. They finish 8^th in the NESCAC and Berg graduates without ever making any type of nationals.

Key Additions: Chris Ellis, Pat Ordway, Adam Schwartz, Brent Feldman, John Neufeld

Key Losses: Rob Crampton, Matt Bettles, Dylan Reffe, Kyle Desisto (graduated)

This is a top notch recruiting class, but unfortunately it came a year too late for the Bobcats. While all four seniors played in the Bates’ lineup at different points over the past years, the important losses are obviously Bettles and Crampton, or the Brit and the Twit (realistically this was the nicest of nicknames they had, and I don’t want our anonymous reader to turn on me for using expletives). These two were consistently one of the best doubles teams in the country and have really carried the program’s torch since the days of Stein and Rupasinghe (great name). The current question is whether these new freshmen can help ease the transition to the Berg/Planche era of Bates tennis? I don’t know what the deal is with Adam Schwartz. He a Cali 3-star who hasn’t played a lick this fall (see more in my lineup analysis later on) and he’s a big question mark. Ellis is the highest rated freshman, but the Bobcats also landed one of the top Maine recruits in the big Pat Ordway. Feldman has been a bit of a pleasant surprise this fall while Neufeld hasn’t done all that much. All in all this is a great recruiting class for Coach Gastonguay; however, they’re going to need another class that’s at least as good if they’re going to make a push to the top 15 a la spring of 2012. Let’s take a look at the lineup possibilities…

LINEUP ANALYSIS

            Timmy Berg, senior. Best case scenario #1, worst case scenario #2.

Before I get into more trouble in the comments section, let me reiterate that when I said Berg was a “glorified pusher” I did not mean anything negative by it. It was merely an observation about a style of game. Furthermore, I believe that this “pusher” has the ability to beat any player in the NESCAC, and is more ready to take the #1 spot now than he was as a sophomore. Last year, Berg went 10-5 at #3, and 8-3 after Bates’ super early trip to California (more on this during the schedule analysis.) He beat Hwang, Glickman, Yaraghi, King (Bowdoin, not Wesleyan) and split with Rudovsky. The wins against Yaraghi and Hwang are enough for me, but the fact that in Berg’s super losses he took Micheli to 11-9 and Marino to 10-8 show that he can hang with anyone in the country. He’s going to get plenty of stiff competition this year, and some of the stiffest might come from his doubles partner…

            Pierre Planche, junior. Best case scenario #1, worst case scenario #3.

UNDERRATED (CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP CLAP). How good was this kid last season? He had the best season on the team, though he did benefit from playing behind Crampton, Bettles, and Berg. At #3-4 Planche went 11-4 during the regular season. He fell twice at the hands of Legunn (who started last season at #1 for the Cards), and lost to Lane and Fife. Not too shabby considering he also had wins against Fife, Rodgers, Campbell, Lim, and Big Weiss. Planche has a bit of a make-or-break game style, as evidenced by the fact that he averaged almost one set per match of either 0, 1, or 2 games lost. I expect big things out of Pierre at some point during his career, and the only question in my mind is how will his fall away from tennis affect his game? Like most NESCAC juniors I’m going to assume that Pierre has been abroad this fall, but if this is not the case someone please comment as to why he hasn’t been playing. Last year Berg came back from abroad and played some good tennis and the season before that Crampton did the same thing. Berg and Crampton strike me as two who would’ve worked on their game while abroad, so let’s just hope Planche follows in their footsteps. If he plays to his potential I believe he’ll have a strong case to play #1 by April; however, if he comes back fat and slow then there’s a chance that one of the talented freshman could start the season playing above him. Ok, this season preview has started off way too positively; I feel my heart swelling 3-sizes and I feel the need to be grinchy. Enter the rest of Bates’ singles lineup…

            Chris Ellis, freshman. Best case #2, worst case #4.

Chris is likely the best of the Bates freshman (depending on what the deal is with Adam Schwartz). Ellis is a rare 4-star commit to Bates,, and was a somewhat sought after recruit. Despite the early hype, his results this fall have been only so-so. Although Chris did win a round at Middlebury and take Carpenter to a super, he got smoked by Astrachan in the 1^st round of ITAs and fell in the 2^nd round of the dubs (paired with Berg) again to Astrachan (this time with Schidlovksy). Then he and Berg played in the Dick Vitale Tournament in Florida (I didn’t even know this existed, but how awesome is that??). This tournament is usually a D1 field, but for some reason the Bates duo got into the tournament (maybe Gastonguay is well connected?) Unsurprisingly, Ellis lost in the 1^st round. While I do believe Chris will become an eventual #1 for the Bobcats, I don’t think he’s ready to come in and start winning immediately as a “Diaper Dandy” at #3. He’ll have to deal with the likes of Campbell, Harron, and Fife from the NESCAC elite, and the next class of #3’s (S. King, Jacobson, Rudovsky, Traff) doesn’t get much easier for the freshman.  For the Bobcats to compete with the middle of the NESCAC this spring, Ellis will need to defy freshman expectations and win some (if not most) of the matches against the middle class of the NESCAC.

            Peter Yanofsky, senior. Best case #4, worst case #Doubles.

Yanofsky is a tennis player in a basketball player’s body. Peter, I’ve never heard you speak and I’m sure you’re a nice guy, but you win the award for NESCAC player I’d like to least meet in a dark alleyway (a close second would be Sam King). This guy has a monster serve, and always seems to play more doubles than singles. While the reasons seem self-explanatory, I’ve never understood why Peter doesn’t play more singles. Obviously I’ll defer to Coach Gastonguay, but this kid seems like a wasted weapon. The fact that it’s his senior year should only spur Peter on, which is why I have his ceiling listed all the way at #4 even though he hasn’t played singles in a conference match since his freshman year. Realistically, it’s possible that Yanofsky is just a doubles player and won’t break back into the singles lineup; however, if he does, he has the firepower to be a big upset waiting to happen.

            Pat Ordway, freshman. Best case #4, worst case #Doubles

Another of the talented freshman class, Ordway was #2 in Maine (although I don’t know how much stock we can put in that) and had a record of .500 or better against 3 and 4 stars as a junior. This fall though, Ordway hasn’t really put it together. He lost to Einbinder (fighting for Amherst #6) in a super at the Bates tournament, and lost to Hudson (fighting for Wesleyan #6) at the Middlebury Invitational. I’m sure there will be a learning curve, but here’s another big guy with big upshot who could very realistically end up as solely a double player. Bates will need one of their giants (either Yanofsky or Ordway) to step up and win some matches towards the bottom of their lineup.

            Brent Feldman, freshman. Best case #4, worst case #7+

Feldman has been the surprise freshman for the Bobcats this fall. Although he was not nearly as heralded as his classmates, Brent has played some close matches this fall. He fell in supers to fellow freshman Granoff and Matingo and dropped a close straight set match to Roode (Nichols #1) at ITAs. Having never heard of him before this fall, I’d say that even though he didn’t win those matches his level of play must’ve come as a bit of a surprise to Coach Gastonguay (although he was put in the A flight at the Bates tournament, so he must at least be a good practice player). Feldman also has a high ceiling of #4, but as I keep writing down #4 as a ceiling I’m beginning to realize that none of these guys will consistently win at #4. Trouble for the Bobcats…

            Ben Bogard, senior. Best case #5, worse case #7+

Bogard is another Bates senior (it seems this team is completely made up of seniors and freshman) with a mostly disappointing track record. Ben seems to have both played his way into and out of the lineup in each of the past couple of years. His best results, however, have come in doubles this fall (splitting with Middlebury’s #2 team and beating what could be Amherst’s #3 team). If Bogard and Yanofsky can put together a little senior magic, this doubles pair could finally evolve into a dangerous #3 team. As for singles, Bogard is another grinder who toils away at the bottom of the lineup (and loses most of his matches). Again, using some senior fire to fuel his game, my guess is that Bogard will make others beat him at #6 and win a few matches here and there.

            Henry Lee, junior, Best case #5, worst case #7+

One of two juniors on the team, and like most of the rest of his teammates, Lee has had a disappointing fall. He has lost to some good competition, but the scores indicate that it hasn’t been that close. Lee played #4/5 for the majority of last year, his best win came against Blau (in what might have been the shortest combined height of any NESCAC match last year), and was out of the lineup for the stretch run. Maybe he was hurt at the end of the year because he was also out of the doubles lineup at the end of last spring? Either way, Lee needs to produce a few more wins if he is to remain a fixture in a youthful lineup. My guess is he does so and plays a lot of 5/6 for the Bobcats this spring. Although the Bobcats will struggle at the bottom ½ of the lineup, the good thing is they have a variety of options for plug and plays.

            Cosmin Bardan, sophomore, Best case #5, worst case #7+

One of those “options” is the Romanian sophomore Cosmin Bardan (I thought his first name was Bardan, but the ITA website has him listed as Cosmin? Then again, he could be vampire for all I know.) Cosmin was a bust last year but the rumor is that he has the potential to break out this year. The fall results don’t necessarily support this hypothesis as I don’t believe Cosmin won a match all fall. I’m a man of results, so my guess is that Cosmin doesn’t sink his teeth into the lineup just yet, but he could be someone to look out for.

            Eric Ruta, senior. Best case #5, worst case #7+

Man, does Bates seem to have a lot of the same type of player. Here’s yet another senior who hasn’t proven himself and will look to do so this spring. Ruta has won one NESCAC singles match (dual match) in his career, and played more 5/6 last spring than anything else. When he’s playing well he can definitely hang with the 5’s/6’s, but he is a streaky player with more career downs than ups. I’m sure he’ll get his chance this spring (so should most of Bates’ team) and he could be someone that cracks the lineup for a while as well.

            Adam Schwartz, freshman. Best case #3, worst case #not on the team?

Like I previously stated, I’ve heard nothing about this kid. Perhaps he’s been hurt, but I’ve also heard nothing about him being hurt and in my line of work where the phone is constantly ringing with gossip and rumors that’s a bit strange. My guess is that something is wrong. Maybe Bates ended up losing him to another school or maybe he deferred, either way the fact that he didn’t play at all this fall cannot be a good thing for the Bobcats moving forward. If he does play this spring, he should be expected to compete for a lineup spot (and likely start in the top 4). That being said I’m going to base my predictions on the likelihood that he doesn’t play.

SCHEDULE

SCHEDULE ANALYSIS

            I’ve always been confused as to why Bates gets to play matches in February when the rest of the NESCAC has to wait until March. After doing a little research, it seems that Bates has found the loophole in the NESCAC system. The rule is that teams can play matches on their “spring break”. While the middle of February is hardly springtime in Maine (pitchers and catchers will have barely reported), Bates uses their spring break to take on some of the best of the West. In the recent years the Bobcats have started the trip with losses at Santa Cruz, but this year they are staying in southern California, playing the New Bellettos, the Old Bellettos, and CMS along with a throwaway match against the D2 Cal Poly. Last year Bates started their season with a (then) big win over what looked like a top 10 Pomona team. However Pomona fell off the map and then they lost Crampton for the MIT/Midd matches and their season was basically shot. This year their California trip might yield another win, but not of the caliber of their Pomona upset from last February. My guess is that Bates wins their 1^st match and drops the latter two matches of their trip (I know nothing about Cal Poly, and their website says their last match played was 2010 so I’m gonna leave that one alone.) I’ll defer to D3West and go with his 5-4 over Whittier, but as for the two losses, I’ll take a reversal and a 6-3 loss to Pomona and an 8-1 loss to CMS with Bates’ lone point being Berg/Planche over Dorn/Wood. Losing matches in California each of the past couple of years begs the question, is it really smart for Coach Gastonguay to schedule big matches when his team hasn’t been allowed to practice in the weeks before? I’ll leave the full debate for another article, and move on to take a look at the rest of the Bobcat schedule.

            If you have read my previous team previews, or just have some common sense concerning d3 tennis, then you’d know that Bates’ season will likely boil down to two matches, April 15^th vs. Tufts, and the season finale April 27^th @ Wesleyan. Don’t get me wrong, there are plenty of other “HUGE” matches that Bates will play this year. Their annual bloodbath with MIT has quietly turned into a mini rivalry, and the last two years the Bobcats are up 11-7 on Hopkins (in aggregate match score). Bobcat fans will undoubtedly claw and scream that they’ve also lost to Midd and Herst 5-4 in one of the past 2 years, but unfortunately Bates fans, that was simply a different team. Without predicting the two aforementioned crucial matches, I’ll take Bates to beat Babson, Hamilton, MIT, Colby, take one out of their 3 A-South matches (probably Mary Wash), Brandeis, Hamilton again (they can’t really play Hamilton twice, no team wants to endure playing Hamilton once), and Trinity.  This means losses to Hopkins, NC Wesleyan, Amherst, Williams, and Bowdoin. That sounds like the making of a top 20 team, but remember that they will have lost to Pomona, and unfortunately for Bates I believe all the teams listed under the “W” category will not be top 20 caliber. A lot of decent teams, but no really good teams. Now to the good stuff…

            Bates, and Tufts, and Wesleyan. Wesleyan, and Bates, and Tufts. Tufts, and Wesleyan, and Bates. Any way you look at it, these three teams should be in the hunt for the final 2 spots of the NESCAC tournament and a shot to prove themselves NCAA tournament worthy with an upset win. While I don’t think it will happen, we’ll leave that for another day. I’m sticking with what I said in my Jumbo and Cardinal team previews. Bates will eek out a win agasint Tufts, and fall @Wesleyan at the end of the regular season. This would put them as the #6 seed in the NESCAC tournament and a likely date with Williams/Midd/Amherst (HA! You’ll have to check back to see who I believe will be in each of the top 3 spots). While I think that on the right day this team can compete with the NESCAC elite, I think that’s all they can do. This Bates team is similar to past Bates teams, with the only caveat being that if the stars aligned the last two years Bates teams could’ve beaten any team in the country. If the stars align for this current Bates team, I think they can take any team to 5-4.  That’s the sad reality the Bobcats will face this spring. Let’s hope they push their way to glorified success (see what I did there?) and prove me wrong.