2014 Season Preview: CMS

Hey, so I went shark diving yesterday, and had a near-death experience. I realized that I absolutely had to get this preview out before some other heretofore unforeseen circumstance befell me, so I went straight home, called my mother, and wrote this. You’re welcome.

Coach: Paul Settles, 11th season

Location: Claremont, CA

2010 Ranking: 3

2011 Ranking: 5

2012 Ranking: 6

2013 Ranking: 2

2014 Projected Ranking: 1

Overview:

I’m gonna try to get through this thing with less than three Harry Potter metaphors, but I’m not making any promises. We all know the story with CMS. In 2010, we were all like, “This is the year, guys. It’s on their home courts.” Seven match points later, Amherst was on its way to the finals. Then in 2011, we were all like, “Alright, I’m serious, guys. This is the year. Just look at all those seniors.” Seven match points later, Williams was on its way to the semis. In 2012, we were all like, “Ok, I’m seriously serious this time. How could a recruiting class like that lose,” and they pretty much wet the bed against Kenyon. Last year, it was like, “Come on, I’m dead fucking serious. There’s no way in hell they don’t win the national championship.” It turned out, “no way in hell” translated to “they lose their #1 singles player days before the Elite Eight and have to play a team of destiny from Massachusetts on indoor courts.” Despite all that, I’m going on record and saying: this is the year CMS wins the national championship. It’s kinda like the first three Harry Potter books where you’re thinking: how is Voldemort gonna try to come back this time. SPOILER ALERT: he makes it back in the fourth one.

The narrative for the last half-decade worth of national championships has been pretty much exactly the same. They get close, then they get closer, then they break through. Amherst (finals, finals, championship). Emory (semis, finals, championship). Williams (semis, brutally close semis, championship). It actually goes farther back than that. The only thing the Stags don’t have going for them is the senior-heavy lineup, but I’m just gonna give it to those juniors with all the experience they’ve gained the last couple years. They’ve got the schedule. They’ve got the talent. They’ve got the coaching. And guess where nationals is again this year? All they gotta do is want it.

And in case you were wondering, I did just compare CMS to James Potter and Voldemort in back-to-back previews. NO ONE MAN SHOULD HAVE THIS MUCH POWER!!!!

Lineup Analysis

Key Losses: Alex Lane (4 singles, 3 doubles). Alex Johnson (6 singles)

Key Additions: (Cameron Bernhardt), Glenn Hull, Maxwell Macey, Daniel Morkovine, Rohan Shankar, international guys

Wow. Much talent. Very grindy. So doubles. Wow

Lane is a serious loss, but Johnson was a bit of an energy vacuum, and I think they might be better without him. That’s not a knock on him as a player (because he’s excellent and won almost every match he played), but in an intense team atmosphere at the end of the season, I think they’ll do well with a fiery freshman at the bottom of the lineup.

I’m just not sure what to make of this lineup because they have at least three #1 singles players. Between Dorn, Wood, and Butts, Settles is going to have a tough decision to make, but we’ll chalk that one up under the “good problems to have” category. My guess is that those three make up the top 3 in whatever order. After that, they have to choose from Marino (speaks for himself), Bernhardt (took Butts to 3 after slaughtering Schommer), Morkovine (beat Weichert), Macey (beat Wilson and Nichols), Hull, Seifert, Pereverzhin, Yeh, and – former ITA singles champ – the Brown Fucking Mamba (who is probably better than Kobe at both tennis and basketball at the moment. Ohhhhhhh).

Anyways, they’ve got those nine guys to choose from for three spots, so let’s get down to the best and worst case scenarios for all of them.

Nick Marino 

Best Case Scenario: #3

Worst Case Scenario: trips on a dime on the way to practice, suffers a Lisfranc tear, has to go to the hospital where – under the effects of high-dose oxycoton – he falls in love with a voluptuous nurse only to find out that she’s 47 years old, married, and has eight kids.

That’s the absolute worst case scenario and it’s probably not gonna happen, so let’s slot him in at #4 where he belongs and move on…

Then there’s some other guys who get some other spots, and let’s talk about doubles for a second. To start things off, you gotta stick with Wood and Dorn at #1 doubles. I mean, those guys are like Ron and Harry together, and, in case you were wondering, I’m taking the over on “OVER/UNDER 2.5 lefty overhead winners per match from Wood” with that doubles combo. As for the rest of the doubles lineup, they pretty much got cleaned out at ITAs, so look for them to shuffle up their pairings come Spring. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Butts/Kotrappa combo back at #2 when the Mamba returns.

Schedule Analysis

It’s just too bad they dodge everyone with their schedule.

Alright, they get things started with an easy win at home over Bates before making their second annual trip to the Pacific Coast Doubles tournament, which I can only assume they play because the Woods/Bernhardts/Marinos put them up or something. They also pick up a nice match against Villanova while they’re down there, and it’s always nice to see the DIII studs take out a DI team, so I’m looking forward to that one. After that, SPRING BREAK WALLA WALLA!!!!!

Nice scheduling from Coach Settles here. By making the trip to Walla Walla, they avoid a long drive up to Cruz for a match against a no-longer-good team, and pick up a neutral-court match against Trinity by doing so. The Stags should pick up easy wins over Whitman and Cruz, but the big match is the Saturday evening tilt against Trinity. It’s no mystery who I think is going to win, but TU is one of the few schools in the country that has the guns to pull off an upset on these guys. If the Tigers can take a 2-1 lead with some emotional doubles play, Deuell and Skinner could pick up a couple singles wins to make it really tight. I think CMS has the advantage deep, however, and will pull out a tough 6-3 decision.

After that weekend, the Stags work their way back to Claremont for the Stag-Hen. Interestingly, the Stags and the Hens are on the same half of the draw this year. Bowdoin has given CMS headaches in the past, but I’m looking ahead to a potential final round match with Emory. The Eagles are one of the few teams with the guns to go shot-for-shot with CMS deep in the singles lineup, but the Stags should be stronger up top and in doubles, and should win that one, another 6-3, I think.

As far as SCIAC matches go, I think I’ve made it perfectly clear that I think they will sweep those without too much difficulty, leaving matches against Williams and Amherst standing in their way of a perfect season. Last year, Williams took CMS to 5-4 on their home course, and had opportunities to close out a couple 3-setters, but Marino came up huge. The Ephs are depleted this year, but they’re far from being bad, so look for that to be another battle, especially if Williams can bring their doubles mojo. I’m going 6-3 for the Stags yet again. I think CMS’ toughest match of the year will be against Amherst. The Amherst boys had an underwhelming Fall tournament, but they’re probably not feeling too bad about back-to-back wins over Hop and CMU. The Jeffs are one of the other teams that can go 6-deep with CMS, but I’ll still take the Stags 5-4 to complete another undefeated regular season.

After that, it’s just a matter of playing well at the right time. The Region of Death is greatly depleted this year, and I truly believe that this is their time to wrench King Kong off their collective back and pile-drive him into asphalt.