2014 Season Preview: UC Santa Cruz

UC Santa Cruz

Coach: Christian De Jesus Nazario (1st season)

Location: Santa Cruz, CA

2010 Ranking: 5

2011 Ranking: 6

2012 Ranking: 9

2013 Ranking: 12

2014 Projected Ranking: 26

Overview: 

The last four rankings tell you a bit about what direction this program is headed. Coaches Hansen and Parmelly did a phenomenal job working around the total lack of institutional and financial support on the part of the University. They recruited on the beauty of their campus and the enormity of their tradition alone, but Coach Bryce Parmelly is gone, and with him went the last tie to UCSC’s glory days.

In Parmelly’s place steps Coach De Jesus Nazario. His backstory doesn’t inspire much confidence, but he’s certainly a great player, and, judging from his team’s performance in the ITAs, he just might be the right man for the job. Moving forward, he returns just one singles starter and two doubles starters from last year’s squad. The good news is he’s got a good schedule and players that know how to work hard to improve.

Lineup Analysis:

Key Losses: Erich Koenig (1 singles), Andre Halabi (2 singles), Bryce Bettwy (3 singles), Sam “Discount Doublecheck” Rogers (4 singles), Erik Rosner (utility)

Key Additions: Garrett Deguchi, Jake Taylor Ashdown, Sean Hollister, Derek Levchenko

I’m going to skip the prose version of speculation and go straight to a projected lineup. I’m just spit-balling here, but this is my best guess as to what the UC Santa Cruz lineup will look like.

1. Scandalis (Quarters)

2. Deguchi (5 and 6 to Maassen)

3. Littlejohn (won round and retired in a close one with an ‘injury’)

4. Hollister (beat sousa, lost to dancu)

5. Goetz

6. Soper

Dubs:

1. Deguchi/Littlejohn

2. Scandalis/Goetz

3. ????

That’s a far cry from the Nuremberg, Koenig, Halabi, Larsen, Bettwy-ish lineup from a couple years ago, but the theme for this year’s UCSC season is “lower your gaze.” If you try not to think about this team the same way you would think of UC Santa Cruz, that’s a respectable DIII lineup.

I’d feel pretty uneasy about turning over my #1 singles spot to someone with double faulting fits reminiscent of Maria Sharapova circa 2009. Nevertheless, Scandalis’ passing shots and groundies are good enough to keep him in just about any match. Maybe all he’s ever needed is an underdog mentality, and I wouldn’t be stunned if he ends up in the top 8 at the end of the year. Let me rephrase: I would only be slightly more stunned to see the Cubs win the World Series than see him make NCAAs. Even though Deguchi lost in the first round at ITAs, Maassen is a solid player, and he must have improved immensely to win the doubles tournament. Littlejohn did well at the bottom of the singles lineup at the end of last year. Again, he’ll be overmatched at #3, but it will definitely be a growing year for these guys. Cruz’ real strength should be at the bottom of the lineup. Hollister, Soper, and Goetz have all been improving rapidly in classic Cruzian fashion, and the Slugs should be able to out-depth a lot of lower-ranked teams.

In doubles, the most pleasant surprise for the Slugs was the emergence of of the Littlejohn/Deguchi TEAM OF DESTINY. Don’t expect them to be a dominant #1 team throughout the year, but if they can steal wins against top teams at #1 here and there, Scandalis and Goetz can win at #2, and all the sudden the Slugs will have the lead going into singles. As is the case with any overmatched team, talent-wise, Cruz will be relying on doubles to spur them to upsets.

Schedule Analysis:

As much crap as I give the UC Santa Cruz SID, at least s/he got the team’s schedule online. Like any West-region team not in the SoCal hot zone, Cruz is geographically challenged. Hansen’s teams got around that by being so good that teams were willing to come to them. That might go away in the coming years, which is sad because the Slugs are tough on their home courts. This year’s schedule offers just three big home matches, but with eight total matches against currently ranked teams, Cruz has put together another great schedule.

Their best chance to beat a ranked team comes on March 1st at home against Whittier. The Poets aren’t looking especially deep this year, but Cruz will need a great match to beat them. If they don’t get that one, they certainly aren’t going to beat P-P or Amherst at home on Feb. 8th and March 22nd, respectively. The Slugs are actually going to Walla Walla for their big Spring Break trip for matches against CMS, Trinity, and Whitman (because when I think Spring Break, I think Walla Walla). Their best chance there will be against the hosts. The Slugs will get thrashed by the Tigers and Stags, but the Squirrels will have some long matches in there, and Cruz might be able to take advantage of an exhausted opponent.

Cruz finishes the season with road matches against Redlands and Cal Lu. Redlands should easily beat the Slugs, and it appears as though the Kingsmen have reloaded enough to win that one in Westmont. All told, wins against Oxy and Whittier would be enough to keep them in the top 25, and that’s what I think is going to happen. Either way, UCSC will get into NCAAs through Pool B to fill out the Region of Death, which is looking distinctly less Death-y this year.