I took a backseat role this season and I’m not sure whether I’ll be back at all next season, but I want to say that I am shocked at how far the site has come since I started a little blog that no one read in the Fall of 2007. All the readers don’t how hard it is to follow all the action every day, write about it and deal with annoying commenters, all for no real reward. You all have no idea how lucky you are to have this kind of tool, so I hope that you appreciate what each of these guys does on a day-to-day basis so that you have some material to entertain you. My hat goes off to the bloggers.
Now, I have decided to write another cameo article focusing on the Final 8 and what I think will happen. I’ll go team-by-team below, but first some big picture stuff. I think you’ve got a heavy favorite in CMS, a trendy pick in Williams and two teams lurking in Kenyon and Amherst, despite both taking their bumps in their respective regionals. I just don’t think Emory has what it takes to win it all this year and the other three teams are slightly overmatched by the two big guns. All signs are pointing to a CMS-Williams final, but after what happened last year in North Carolina, we know that anything can happen. Lastly, I want to say that Kalamazoo is a very special place to play tennis that is filled with history, so I hope it brings out the best in all of the competitors. Let’s jump into this and look at where each team stands.
CMS – Without a doubt the biggest story of 2013 NCAAs. The only undefeated team, and one who was truly dominant the first half of the season, almost to the point of the 2007 Cruz team or 2010 Midd team. Both of those teams went on the win the national title, and if this was anyone but CMS, almost everyone would be picking them to win it all. But let us not forget the history. Until 2010, CMS was very close to a title, but typically beaten by a better team. Starting in 2010, their travails became comical. The Stags squandered 7 team match points in the 2010 semifinals, 7 team match points in the 2011 quarterfinals on their home courts and didn’t really show up to play doubles in the 2012 quarterfinals in a 5-0 loss to Kenyon. No matter how mentally tough they think they are, those memories will be with them at Kalamazoo. The question is, are they so much better than everyone else that it doesn’t even matter? Judging by the fact that I picked them to win it all, my answer is yes. This is a complete team top-to-bottom, and to me the only way they won’t win is if they don’t want it. Granted, they may be up against Amherst or Williams and and have their back against the wall, but all season long they proved they were the best team in the country. Seeing what I saw for the past 3 months, I couldn’t pick against them. I don’t think they will have much trouble with Middlebury, but after that they get into some tougher teams in the semis and finals. Their skill must overcome their mental shortcomings. If they can’t win a national title with this team, I don’t know what else they can do. They are the favorite; the kids deserve it, the program deserves it and seeing them lose this year would be very tough.
Middlebury – I picked against Midd in the Sweet 16 and in my opinion their entire season was being judged by today’s match, so congratulations on a dominant win. I won’t mess up this writeup with Hopkins bashing. Middlebury obviously had a very difficult 2012 campaign, missing the Final 8 for the first time in many years and for a large portion of this season, it looked like 2013 may end in the same manner. The Panthers were good, but not great, the entire year, with their most embarrassing moment coming in a 5-4 win against Tufts. Heading into the NESCAC tournament they did not have much momentum, but I think they got some life back in a 5-4 loss to Williams in which they had multiple chances to win. Despite losing, it showed them and the rest of the country that they could be competitive with top 5 teams. All of that led up to today’s 5-1 win against a tough Hopkins team, and most impressive was the Panthers dominance in doubles as well as their resilience during several first sets in which they were down. I know I was convinced of my prediction in the 1-8 match last year, but I’m just as convinced this year. Midd did well to get to this point, but all signs point to them not going any further. They lost 8-1 to CMS earlier this year and didn’t win more than 4 games in any doubles match. In my eyes, making the Final 8 makes the 2013 Midd season a success, but I know they want more and I definitely know their coach wants more.
Amherst – It’s amazing how one loss or one win can change your perception of an entire program. Exactly one year ago, Amherst was the favorite to win the national title and carried the reputation of raising their game in May. Today, people are questioning whether they will get out of their quarterfinal against Emory. The loss to Wash U last year certainly changed people’s perception of the Jeffs, but whether it actually changed the Jeffs themselves remains to be seen. This is the same program that made the final from 2009-2011 and put together an undefeated 2012 regular season. They have definitely not been impressive enough in 2013 to make me think they are going to beat Emory, CMS and Williams on consecutive days, but you never know. This team is loaded with top notch recruits and certainly has the firepower to put together a national title run, which is why I’ve labeled them as a wildcard. I think this is the type of team who could beat a CMS team with shaky confidence because they may be the only other team in Kzoo who can truly match the Stags skill level. My projection for Amherst is a 3rd place finish, but I wouldn’t think all that much of a quarterfinal loss to a tough Emory team. If they get past that quarterfinal, they have nothing to lose. I just have an uneasy feeling that Herst is coming into this tournament being under-appreciated, and I fully expect them to make some noise in the Final 8 this year and avoid another quick exit.
Emory – If Emory loses in the quarters and people start talking about the “downfall of Emory’s program,” I will flip out. They are the defending national champions and have a very young team. They are coming off the loss of two of the best players in program history as well as an unexpected transfer, and given those circumstances they have pretty much met expectations this year. They lost heartbreakers in the Indoors final and the UAA final, and because of that everyone knows that Emory will battle until the end no matter how far behind they are. One thing that I think this team has that past Eagles teams have lacked is heart. However, that heart combined with the weakest Emory roster since I’ve been covering D3 may end their streak of consecutive years finishing in the top 5, which I believe stands at 12. I know I’ve used the phrase “anything but a national title is unacceptable for Emory,” but this team lacks some big pieces and to me a victory over Amherst should make them happy. The Eagles will be a very tough out no matter who they play, but I just can’t imagine them toppling CMS. Their path to a final would be the same as Kenyon’s last year: benefit from an upset of the top seed. Emory’s 2014 squad should be very tough and the experience for their current sophomore class is there, but I don’t think the talent is there this year and that’s something you rarely find yourself saying about an Emory team.
Trinity (TX) – Today’s match reminded me of the 2011 Sweet 16 match between Trinity and Chicago where the Maroons surprisingly led 2-1 after doubles and then Trinity blew through singles. Everyone knows I’m a big fan of TU, and this season proves why. Before the emergence of Skinner as an elite player, I had these guys at about 16 in the country heading into this season. After his fall win, they moved up to 11 or 12 for me, and they now enter the Final 8 as the 6th overall seed. If you want to talk about a model of consistency, look at the historical ITA rankings in which Trinity has finished 10th 3 years in a row. The amazing thing about these guys is that they don’t get the recruits that the rest of the Final 8 teams get, yet they still manage to compete at a high level every year. Cruz used to employ this program model to perfection, but with their decline, I wonder if Trinity will be the new program that lower-ranked teams aspire to be. I can’t say enough good things about these guys and I’m 100% sure that the Ephs will not take them lightly. TU has the tools to pull this upset, I just don’t think they can do it against a hungry and experienced Williams team. As nice as their regional was is as tough as their Elite 8 match is. I think the Tigers put up a great fight as they always do and they will push Williams, I just don’t see them being able to pull out a victory. Trinity is in line for a 4th consecutive top 10 finish and is on to their 3rd Final 8 in 4 seasons. If some of the talented teams ranked in the teens and 20s picked up their heart and desire to half the level of where these guys are, they would be competing for national titles.
Williams – My gut tells me that if CMS is going to lose, this is the team that’s going to beat them. At the end of last season, I pegged Williams as 2013 champions, and their opportunity has finally arrived. They have every piece necessary to win a national title and my guess is if we do get the final we are hoping for, it will come down to a few points. More so than anyone else during the regular season, Williams pushed the Stags and had chances to win. However, let’s not get ahead of ourselves because Williams has two tough matches before that potential meeting. Trinity will be a great test for the Ephs, and in my mind their seniors are too focused to lose to a team who isn’t as good as them. After that, they will get the Kenyon-Wash U victor, and besides CMS, I see Kenyon as the only other team who can match Williams desire heading into this tournament. If Williams loses before the final, it will be because they couldn’t handle the pressure of trying to win this for their amazing seniors. Those guys have been through some incredible matches during their 4 years and this is the culmination of their college tennis careers. They probably are not as talented as CMS, but they weren’t as talented as them in 2011 and look what happened. I’m betting on CMS’ talent, but plenty of people are betting in Williams’ desire, and I can’t blame them. It’s all or nothing for the Ephs this year and that’s a lot of pressure, but they have to recognize how close they were last year and recognize the fact it’s going to take several more seasons to build up this strong of a team again. While I think CMS is going to win, I’m definitely rooting for Williams.
Wash U – The good old Bears are back again, coming up huge late in the regular season just like last year. They entered the UAA tournament as the 3rd seed ranked about 15th in the country and left it with a 1st place trophy and a top 8 overall seed in NCAAs. Wash U is looking for their 6th consecutive Final 4 appearance which is an impressive feat given the depth in D3 now. I almost wrote a cameo article titled “What’s Wrong with Wash U?” after they lost to Case 3 months ago, but of course the Bears would have made me look stupid, which is why I’m picking them in the quarters against a Kenyon team I think very highly of. In 2011 and 2012, something just seemed slightly off for the Bears. While they were finishing in the top 5, this program measures themselves based upon how they do against Emory, and they were getting beaten badly every time they stepped on court with the Eagles. After the UAA performance this year, I feel like they got their mojo back and are very dangerous heading into the Final 8. After Kenyon struggled today, I feel even better about my pick, but it’s really because I think so highly of Wash U. After the quarterfinal last year, I learned to never doubt them no matter what the circumstances are, so they have me on their side this year. All that said, they simply do not have the talent to beat Kenyon, Williams and CMS on consecutive days. I think Wash U makes their 6th consecutive Final 4, but I also think they wind up in their 5th consecutive 3rd place match.
Kenyon – In 2 weeks, I may be kicking myself for underestimating Kenyon. This is almost the same exact team that had a match point to go up 3-0 in the national final last year, and that is exactly why I have them listed as a wildcard who could win the entire tournament. Desire-wise they are where they need to be, but I think they need to get a few too many lucky breaks to win it all because they aren’t quite there from a talent standpoint. The draw broke their way last year and they lucked into a great opportunity, but the chances of that happening two years in a row are slim. I love this team and I think they are clutch as shown by Indoors, but winning it all would take an absolutely massive effort that I don’t think they are capable of. Hopefully, today’s scare reminded their seniors that they need to bring their A game, especially against a Wash U team that is tough as nails. Wash U took out Kenyon in 2011 and Kenyon returned the favor last year, so let’s call this the rubber match for the chance to earn a likely date with Williams. After Williams, seeing Kenyon win the tournament would make me the happiest, but their depth and their doubles worry me. Coach Thielke and his team will have 9 days to relax after nearly losing today, and for the sake of all of D3, let’s hope Kenyon gets in the same state of mind they were in last year, because as much as I love Wash U, seeing a Williams-Kenyon semi would be a lot of fun.
The traffic on this website will only get bigger…keep up the good work, it is very much appreciated. Think over opening up a “donation” option.
warren wood is out! mind blown. draw open
how do you know??
Looking forward to the finals, and thank you for your excellent work this season. I look at 5-10 websites a day, and this one is at the top of the list.
A philosophical question for the D3 writers: What do you think about big research universities such as Emory and Wash U competing in the same league as small liberal arts colleges such as Middlebury and Pomona? I guess the success of Amherst et. al suggests that it’s not unfair, but you look at a conference like the Centennial, where Johns Hopkins is so much bigger than every other school in the conference and wonder, how can any one else compete? How can schools with enrollment of 1,000 to 2,000 compete with the recruiting resources of schools five times as large? Curious about your perspectives, and thanks agains for one of my favorite sites on the Web.
My take: if the larger schools do have an advantage, it’s only an advantage if the admissions departments are more lenient with athletes because of the larger enrollments. Even so, it doesn’t really matter.
In my head, a school like Amherst is just attractive to a high school senior, on average, than a school like Emory. I can’t see more tennis kids wanting to go to Emory than Amherst, on average, and most of the smaller schools have equivalent tennis facilities, so the only advantage would be if a coach at a bigger school could more easily “tip” a lesser student in. I don’t personally know what the case is for each individual school, but I know that many smaller schools have very strict admissions departments.
Arguing something like this, however, is really opening up Pandora’s box. Does Tufts have an advantage over Kenyon because Tufts is in Boston and Kenyon is in Gambier? Does P-P have an advantage over everyone because they can draw with both prestige (Pomona) and laxer admissions (Pitzer), at least compared to Amherst? Do schools with more money have an advantage over schools with less money? Yes, yes, and yes. Are these advantages unfair? No. Every DIII school has strengths and weaknesses. It’s up to the coaches and players to overcome the weaknesses and succeed anyways. They’re all in the same division, and that’s not changing, so we might as well just play ball.
One of the best elite 8 ever? I dont know about that as this year seems a lot weaker than previous years. I dont think middlebury stands a chance against CMS unless CMS chokes majorly. The emory amherst match is going to be close as anything could happen in doubles and in singles emory might have the advantage 4-6. The kenyon/washu and williams trinity side seems far weaker. I expect williams to make it to the finals with some difficullty against washu or kenyon. Amherst probably matches up better against CMS than emory but CMS is so deep. The only teams that I think can beat cms is amherst or williams on a very good day.
I actually agree with many of your criticisms of my post with this exception: I believe the overall quality of D 3 tennis gets better every year. And in that sense I think the overall quality of talent in the final 8 is better than ever. I saw many of the elite 8 teams play in person and it is stunning what is happening in men’s D 3 tennis. I actually coached along side the legendary Bob Hansen very briefly in the early 80’s and remember the early stages of D 3 tennis. Thanks to coaches like Bob Hansen, we now watch a different level of tennis played with intensity and passion. I will admit to being a Stags fan and tend to agree that if they want it, it is there for the taking. From watching the Stags this year, this seems like a team which has the talent AND really wants it. So far, they have responded to every challenge. So like ” Anonymous “, I like the Stags to win it all but until they win three more, there is a lot of talent out there and a bunch of great kids who love their schools and want it too…..Love to see Coach Settles and his guys get that first one….Again, thanks for this site…here’s to a great final 8.
Can we talk about how even this Elite 8 is? You could argue that there are favorites in every match, but it wouldn’t be that shocking if Midd beats CMS, or Trinity tops Williams.
There were years not too long ago where some of the matches in the elite 8 were not even a question. This year we have the potential for four (at least) great matches. Hopefully I’m not jinxing this, but its exciting to have a tournament where teams are going to really have to work to win.
Yes!….Some terrific match ups….the winner of the event will have really earned it….one of the best Elite 8’s ever.
emory doesnt have the firepower to win it all this year. will lose to amherst 5-0.
Seriously?
How will emory lose 5-0 to amherst when Stevens got a match off of Amherst? Amherst doubles hasnt been that strong this year. Anything can happen there. Amherst probably has the the advantage 1-3. 4 Im not sure. 5 and 6 emory might have a small advantage. The Amherst Emory match and the the Washu/Kenyon matches will probably be the closest.
While I’m obviously a Stevens fan, and I think Amherst’s doubles are in fact strong, I too have a hard time seeing Amherst beating Emory 5-0. In fact I think it’s going to be a pretty close match (ending 5-3 is my prediction). Anyone left at this point is going to be pretty darn good and really the “8th best” team could beat “the best” team at this point without raising too many eyebrows.
I’ll also add that Stevens hasn’t lost worse than 7-2 to anyone this season, including the #1 (Kenyon) and #5 (Bowdoin) teams and several others, so saying that Amherst is weak because they only won 5-1 isn’t as strong of a statement as you may think.
I’m not saying Oh stevens sucks and if they got a doubles point than emory can too. I’m just saying I think emory is a stronger team than stevens and I’m basing doubles off of the performance amherst has had all year. They went down 1-2 cal lu, got swept in doubles by williams the first time and then went down 2-1 to williams the next time. Obviously their doubles was different by the time they played williams and we could say that williams doubles is just very strong but amherst hasn’t been ” dominant” in doubles and anything can happen in doubles as we saw last year. Amherst would have won it all had they not gotten swept. We’ll see who comes ready to play. Either team could go up 2-1. I feel like its impossible to predict which team will go up in dubs though
Emory lacking talent is an interesting statement… They have all four star players from 1-6 exception of 5, however, Elliott Kahler was technically a 2 star but finished in the 4 star range plus he is a senior with d1 experience… From their results it is obvious they are getting stronger as the year nears its end… Barely beating NCW a few weeks ago to then beating 5-1…. And U T tyler had a decent roster and they were beaten 5-0… I wouldn’t count them out…
Quick question: What happened to Razumovsky? His recent results leave me wondering if he’s playing hurt. I mean, 2012 Raz would have blown Drougas off the court last weekend. Despite all of his success, he hasn’t been dominating like he did last year. Am I making something out of nothing, or has he taken a step back?
Razumovsky has lost 3 Division 3 matches this year. 16-3. Those 3 matches he lost were on two days. March 15-16. Without those 2 days he has had a great year. Beat Worley, White, Sabada, Prostak. All of these guys are going to Nationals. He had two bad days. He hasn’t lost since Mid-March. Pretty sure he is fine.
maybe drougas has gotten a lot better eh? cause he has
I agree Williams should have beaten Nichols at 1 dubs and 1,2 singles, but lets give Nichols a little credit. I know most won’t agree with what I am saying, but Roode / Irizzary were both 3 stars, and beat MIT earlier this year. Again, Williams should have won, but these guys were not push-overs
yeah, let’s give Nichols some credit – Williams probably came out flat at one dubs, and Nichols took advantage. Credit to them
Let’s also not forget that this Williams team has saved something like 14 team match points at nationals over the past two years. They come to play in big matches as D3TG said
I appreciate you comment. Tennis is different than many sports, and Nichols is far from a pushover. Nichols 1 being up big, split at 2(who earlier in the year beat Crampton from Bates), 3(who beat Amherst “5” earlier in the year)dealing with cramps all match and going on a 2-0 40-love run as match ended against Sun shows that Nichols could have tested a possible NCAA champion with a 5-4 match.And a 8-4 win at 1 doubles is a little more than a bad day for Williams, maybe Nichols can really play. Hopefully they get more recognition as time goes on from the writers of this site, and the NCAA in general! Pull for the little guy!
Thanks for the insight, maybe now that I have heard of them I will follow them more. From a casual observer standpoint that match makes me think Williams was off, but maybe I just don’t know what I am talking about.
Now back to talking about the teams who can win it. Herst….
Seriously, not sure why everyone keeps saying Williams can win it all.
Their “seniors” were pushed pretty hard by Nichols. Not sure how focused they can be if they are going to be tested by teams like Nichols and Skid. Nichols was way up at 1, and just split at 2. This makes the Williams lineup look a bit vulnerable.
To all the bloggers you guys are awesome, thanks for taking the time to do this.
First, thanks a ton for the support, we really appreciate it.
To your Williams point, I think people may be overreacting a bit to the Nichols score. While it wasn’t a great result, I do not think people should be basing Williams chances on a 5-1 Nichols win. We should be basing it on a 5-4 Amherst win recently and team structure, which has been noted as in their favor. People can doubt their 1 doubles team that recently beat Amherst and has multiple big wins throughout the year. Remember how volatile doubles is.
Meyer also recently beat Johnston of Midd and Fritz of Amherst. Micheli had huge wins in the NESCAC tournament. I’d say that is much better data than the Nichols win in which they were cruising to a victory anyways.
CMS over Midd 5-1
Amherst over Emory 5-3
Trinity over Williams 5-3
Kenyon over Wash 5-2
CMS over Amherst 5-3
Kenyon over Trinity 5-1
CMS over Kenyon 5-2
My first predictions, and I was tempted to go with Emory over Amherst, but I couldn’t!
Thanks for a fun season of d3 tennis!
Ugh. 2/4 is pretty awful. The wash u one I feel terrible about. Trinity was close to a breakout in the match, but I still underestimated Williams (not all to do with Nichols.)
As a player, I will say that I have much much appreciation for this site. My family has been able to follow me thanks to this site Thank you bloggers. Love you guys. Don’t understand why people say things like the above but that is okay. Many appreciate it.
I think I have some idea how lucky I am “to have this kind of tool.” Pretty lucky, but not that lucky–I assume you’ve done this blog because you enjoy following and writing about d3 tennis, not because you’re selflessly providing a thankless, unremunerative service to an audience some fraction of which is “annoying.” I have certainly enjoyed the blog, but the tone of this post rubs me the wrong way.
Pretty lucky is better than not lucky at all. I think the goal of the statement was to give some recognition to us. Yes, we enjoy writing about d3tennis. And we also are thankful for you guys as followers and appreciate most of your feedback. However, there are some comments that “rub us the wrong way.” And considering we do this for both our enjoyment AS WELL as yours, d3tennis thought it would be nice to give us some recognition. If I were to take a cross-country road trip, and offered you a ride, I think you’d be pretty grateful to accept. I think overall you totally missed the point of the paragraph, considering he ended it by saying “my hat goes off to the bloggers.”
Thanks.
Agreed, that comment was extremely stuck up. At the end of the day, I am sure that a majority of D3 tennis players like myself really appreciate this venue and we hope that there is enough interest from the writers side to continue it in years to come
My point was that the emphasis seemed to fall at least as much on the failings of the readers–unaware of how demanding the job is, given to annoying comments–as to the achievements of the writers. I’m sure that d3 tennis is plenty appreciative of the writers’ work; I just didn’t appreciate his characterization of the readers.
Well, sorry that you feel that way. Hopefully we can keep the focus on the 8 amazing teams in the Elite 8 now.
As we all well know, I have enjoyed this website and twitter accounts quite a bit. But this comment is F***ing stupid. These guys are absolutely amazing and i had boat loads of money, I would pay each of them thankfully for all the great work they have done. They certainly deserve it with all the man hours, reading, watching, looking up stats that they have put in. Thank you to all of you bloggers and D3Tennis your the MAN for starting this blog and for everyone who has joined in to make it so successful. I assume this website will get better and better with time. D3tennis isn’t the biggest but this site makes it feel like it’s the real deal in the college world.
If this really is your last year on the blog, you have my thanks for everything you’ve contributed to fans of d3 tennis over the years. Won’t be the same without you, but we’re lucky to have a young, entertaining crop of writers to fill your shoes. Love this site!
Thank you all for your hard work, this blog is fantastic and I hope it continues for many years to come.
In the 6 years I’ve been covering D3, the number of years each has made the Final 8:
CMS: 5 of 6
Middlebury: 5 of 6
Amherst: 5 of 6
Emory: 6 of 6
Trinity: 3 of 6
Williams: 5 of 6
Wash U: 6 of 6
Kenyon: 5 of 6
Don’t think we could get a more experienced group. 48 total teams have appeared and I just counted 40 of them.
Thank you for a wonderful post and all your hard work in supporting D 3 Men’s Tennis. I like CMS’ chances. I think their win over CLU made a statement that this team really wants it all…a CMS-Williams final could be a classic especially in storied Kalamazoo.
i can assure you that after the lords subpar performance today, there will be no relaxing in gambier for the next nine days
love it #fireitup
Thanks for starting and writing the blog. I hope you continue on. I’m sure it is a lot of work. Your reward? Thousands of interested readers.
Thanks again.