NCAA Preview Through the Eyes of: an unbiased observer

Buckle up your seat belts, ladies and gentlemen, because this is going to be a long one. Before I get into each region, let’s take a quick step back and look at the NCAA selection process:

– Though the NCAA and ITA are completely separate entities, the NCAA publishes the ITA rankings on their website for the first 19/20ths of the year. Draws like this one make it obvious that the NCAA rankings don’t even remotely resemble the ITA rankings, and by publishing the ITA rankings on their website, they not only avoid any and all transparency, they knowlingly misrepresent what the selection committee is actually thinking.

– They allow conference to compete until the Sunday that the draws are supposed to be announced. Then they actually don’t announce the draws until the following evening when teams are notified of where they are going. Teams like Tyler, Dallas, and Whitman are then forced to make flight reservations on 36 hours notice, but the NCAA refuses to pay for expensive flights, forcing these teams to go to great lengths just to get to their matches on time. For Dallas and Whitman, getting there on time involves crossing multiple time zones and traveling 1000’s of miles, which is hard enough if you don’t have to wake up at 5 AM to drive to a distant airport to get to where you’re supposed to play the match.

– The publish rankings and selection criteria, then completely ignore them and basically just throw teams into a bracket at random. Hmmm, Elmhurst and Coe are kinda close to St. Louis, let’s just throw them there and see how things work out. Let’s not forget last year when Wash U was one of the last teams in and still got rewarded with a cakewalk to the Elite Eight.

– They also create brackets that are blatantly more expensive than brackets that would’ve involved fewer flights and been more fair. What was wrong with a Trinity, Whitman, Tyler, UT-Dallas region? Wash U would’ve at least had to go through GAC to get to the Elite Eight, and pretty much everything else would’ve been exactly the same. Even if you want to keep Emory as a host site, you can fly one team there and still have fewer flights than this disgrace of a bracket.

I’m sure I could rant a little more, but in all honesty, this is about what we’ve come to expect out of the NCAA. If you want to get a little angrier, look at the DIII tournaments for men’s and women’s basketball. Is the NCAA making any money off DIII basketball? Absolutely not. Are they willing to pay for approximately 60 different teams’ flights to make that tournament happen? Absolutely

Anyways…

Region 1

Intriguing Matches

Pretty much all of them. You see, this is one of two regions with five ranked teams in them. As far as likely match-ups that provide the most intrigue, look no further than that Round of 32 match between #5 Cal Lu and #10 UC Santa Cruz (That’s right, two top 10 teams are playing in the Round of 32).

These two teams played this year in Santa Cruz, and the Slugs came away with the victory despite falling down 1-2 after doubles. UCSC dominated the middle of the lineup in that one, winning 2, 3, and 4 singles in straight sets, to go with another relatively easy win at #6. The good news for them is that Littlejohn is playing great and should be good for another point at #6 this time around. The bad news is that they can’t expect things to be so easy in the middle this time around. Worley probably won’t go down like that to Halabi again. Look to the seniors to play a 3-setter in this one, because I see this likely being the deciding match. Rodgers, as always, has been a rock for Cruz this year, and I expect the senior to win the rematch with Treacy. Treacy was coming off an injury in that one, and has been playing better lately, but I’m still expecting the Cruz seniors to come up big in this match. A possible swing match will take place at #3 singles. Bettwy cruised by Nichols last time, but that was on Cruz’ faster courts where his forehand could take full effect. CMS’ courts are nice and slow, and I think that could make this a long one. Despite the doubles loss against CMS, I don’t think Ballou will have much problem with Koenig. All told, I’m predicting wins for Cal Lu at 1 and 5 and Cruz at 4 and 6.

Doubles will probably swing this match one way or another. As well as Littlejohn has been playing, Cruz must be really hoping that he and Bettwy can steal a match at #2 doubles because they got beat pretty handily last time. The Slugs can’t count on a point at #2 doubles, and, honestly, they were lucky to come away with #3 last time around. Regardless, I think this one plays out much the same way, with the Kingsmen taking 1 and 2, and the Slugs taking #3. Like I said, I think this match will almost certainly come down to the wire, but as fired up as their seniors are bound to be, the Slugs really haven’t been all that great away from home, and I think the Kingsmen will eek out a 5-4 thriller with a win at #3 singles.

Redlands vs. UT-Dallas could be a really close match, especially if the Comets bring it in doubles, but I don’t know enough about the Comets, they’ll be traveling, and they lost 7-2 to the full-strength Patriots, so I’m just going to assume Redlands gets through this one. Chalk that one up as an upset special, though. The Dawgs didn’t exactly finish the year strong.

The Final

Like I said, I think Cal Lu takes that one and heads to the final for a rematch with CMS. The key to the rematch will be doubles again. Cal Lu was mere points away from a 2-1 lead last time, and doubles has really been a stronghold for the Stags all year long. Lane and Marino won’t play another stinker like that one, so the Kingsmen will need points at #1 and #2 doubles if they want the lead. Though Wood and Dorn won the last time they played Ballou and Worley, history says I should go with the Kingsmen. Unfortunately for Cal Lu, I think the Stags will flip #2 doubles this time around for a 2-1 lead.

After that, it’s only a matter of time before CMS wins. The Stags have seniors in Lane and Johnson anchoring the lineup, and they will make quick work of their opponents. CMS’ fifth point could come at either #3 or #5 singles where they will be heavy favorites again. Cal Lou is definitely favored at #1 and #2 singles, so if a lower-lineup Stag gets tight, this match could get really interesting, especially if Cal Lu takes a doubles lead. It’s awfully tough to beat a good team three times in a row, but I think the Stags are just that good. 5-2 Stags in the regional final

The Winner

CMS

Region 2

Intriguing Matches

As much as Kenyon could be upset with their draw just by looking at Wash U’s region, they should be because there’s only one more good team in their region. Appropriately, the only good match will be the final. I think you’ll see that’s a theme in some of these regions…

The Final

The Sweet Sixteen match in this regional will definitely be Kenyon vs. Case Western. This regional final is also a rematch of one that happened earlier this season, but Case Western is likely to hit Kenyon with a bit of a different look. Last time they played, Ye and Heerboth saved the Lords from disaster by saving a couple match points at #3 doubles to avoid the dreaded doubles sweep. The two teams proceeded to play four 3-setters, with the Lords taking three of them to earn a 6-3 victory.

This is around the time of year Kenyon usually gets hot on the doubles court, so I don’t think the Spartans will threaten to sweep this time around. Ye and Heerboth have been too solid at the bottom of the lineup to lose in a big time situation, so chalk up at least one point for the Lords there. In doubles, it appears as though Kenyon has reverted to the “Put Williams and Raz at #2 and put a ton of pressure on the opposing team’s #1’s to win” strategy. I think this will pay off, and the Lords will take a 2-1 lead with wins at #2 and #3.

If that happens, the match could be over relatively quickly. The senior C.J. Williams will likely be going up against a resurgent junior in Klawitter. Williams has seen the pressure of an NCAA match many times before, and should come away with a close one there. At #3, Heerboth will be taking on Gerber again. Kenyon’s lefty can go three sets with just about anybody, but he seems to come out with a win in the end pretty much every time. May means it’s time for Burgin to play lights out, and I expect him to roll past the freshman in Kimbrill. If one of those matches takes to long, Rosensteel and Huber have been money for Kenyon deep in the singles lineup.

If Case is going to engineer this upset, it starts and ends with doubles. They are clearly capable of taking a 2-1 lead on Kenyon, but can they do it when the Lords are on the prowl, so to speak. The Spartans need to be ready for a whole new type of purple intensity in this one, but if they can absorb the initial blow Kenyon is going to throw at them and come away with a 2-1 lead, they just might take this thing. Kimbrill can play at an extremely high level, and we all know what Drougas can do. I think a Case win involves victories at 1 and 3 doubles, 1, 2, and either 5 or 6 singles. Make a senior-heavy team nervous, and you just don’t know what could happen.

The Winner

Kenyon

Region 3

Wow, look at the region we have here. We’ve got Williams and perennial NEWMAC powerhouse MIT. The Purple Cows absolutely cannot look past their Round of 32 opponents, Colby-Sawyer/Nichols, both those teams won their conferences and stuff.

Intriguing Matches

Unfortunately, this region does not have an intriguing final. They do have an intriguing round of 32 match between Skidmore and MIT on the horizon. Even without Loutsenko, the Thoroughbreds managed to push Middlebury on the road (though they did lose to Vassar shortly thereafter). Judging by their doubles performances against Kenyon, Case, and Middlebury, this is clearly a dangerous team, and they just might be due for an upset.

The Engineers are the higher ranked team in this match, and are definitely a slight favorite. They have a win over Bates on their resume, but that comes with the Crampton asterisk. Tufts was able to beat them by taking a lead in doubles, and Skidmore could be able to do the same thing, so the Engineers will have to be on guard in the first 60 minutes. If they take the lead in doubles, the match is over, as Skidmore cannot compete with MIT’s depth. If it weren’t for Skidmore’s terrible performance against Vassar, I would pick them in this one, but I’m not going to go with a team that has a history of blowing big matches. MIT 5-4 onto the Sweet Sixteen.

Look, this is just another joke of a region. MIT is obviously very solid in singles, but there’s just no way they can even challenge the Ephs here. The Ephs are coming off a 5-4 road victory over Amherst, they have five seniors in their starting lineup, and they are playing on their home courts. MIT just lost to Tufts, who Williams beat 8-1 when they played. As underrated at the Engineers probably are, this is not going to happen for them.

The Winner

Williams

Region 4

Well, I’m not really sure how Emory pulled the #4 overall seed in this one after barely beating both NCW and CMU before losing to #7 overall seed Wash U. I would harp on that some more, but I’m pretty sure Emory would rather have fucking anyone else but their draw (except, of course, CMS).

I guess a tough draw is the price they pay for being able to sleep in their own beds. For the first time in Emory history, they are hosting both the men’s and women’s regionals. I look forward to hearing both the men’s and women’s coaches complain about being jerked around so the Emory teams can play all their matches on the main courts, while everyone else is relegated to the scub courts. All joking aside, this is far from a gimme region for Emory. There are more intriguing match ups in this one region than in all the other regions combined, so back up. I need room to spread my arms…

Intriguing Matches

Interesting note, these are the exact same five teams that made up the Emory region last year, just in a different order.

Washington & Lee vs. NCW

Here’s an upset special if I’ve ever seen one. The Battling Bishops may have lost to the Generals 7-2 during the season, but that was then, in Lexington, and this is now, in Atlanta. Last time these two teams came to Atlanta for a regional, W&L got off to a rip-roaring start by getting swept in doubles by the lowly UT-Tyler Patriots. Meanwhile, NCW took 2 of 3 from a tough Whitman team before cruising to a 5-1 win.

The Generals won’t be able to pull the same shenanigans with refs on every court, and the Bishops will be in their comfort zone on Emory’s courts. The Bishops have also been out of school for about a month, and are likely to have been playing two-a-days. The Washington & Lee players have not been doing that.

Last time, Shamshiri and Holt beat Kjellberg and Prostak in a tiebreaker. That will not happen again. Look for White to take over the #2 doubles match, but Hviid will dominate the #3 doubles match to give NCW a 2-1 lead.

In singles, White will not be able to repeat the feat against Kjellberg, as the #2 player in the country will give NCW a 3-1 lead there. Shamshiri will have a better match against Prostak, but I think he will ultimately fall. Pola in particular has been playing very good tennis of late, and I think he will provide NCW’s 5th point if nobody else does first. 5-3 NCW.

Tyler vs. Whitman

With Ybarra coming back from injury and Tyler coming off a loss to UT-Dallas, smart money here would probably be on the #3 seed Whitman, right? Come on. I’ve never picked Whitman before. You think I’m going to start now?

The Squirrels have never performed well in a national tournament, and now they have to travel several thousand miles over two time zones to play a tough team during their finals week. Tyler has already beaten Whitman once this year. It was 5-4 then, and that was moments after Tyler finished a brutal 6-3 match with Cruz (during which time Whitman was mopping up the courts with an exhausted Pomona-Pitzer team). Tyler will be fresh. Whitman will be tired. Even if Ybarra is hobbled, that won’t make much difference in doubles, and the Squirrels haven’t done anything on the doubles courts all year. In order to win this match, the Squirrels will have to flip a match they lost last time, and I think it’s much more likely that this match will be even more one-sided.

At #1 doubles, you’ll have Ybarra and Brown taking on La Cava and Malesovas. La Cava has already proven that he can win in doubles with anyone, and the two have had a phenomenal year. If Whitman is going to flip a match, it will happen here. I still think Brown and Ybarra will be able to blast their way to a 9-7 win. At #2, you’ve got Singer/Spencer vs. Roston/Riggs. Singer and Spencer have been far from the locks the Patriots imagined they would be at #2 this year, so give the edge to Whitman there. Tyler has been extremely suspect at #3, but so has Whitman. Whitman will have a pair of seniors there, so they could easily come away with that one, but edge Patriots with Martinez for a 2-1 lead.

Even if Whitman manages to take the lead, I think Tyler will find a way to win this one. It took a pair of 3-setters for Whitman at 4 and 6 to keep the thing close last time, and I don’t see them being as lucky this time. Spencer will be much fresher this time around, and I think he’ll swing one for the Pats at #4. Roston has been playing too well to go against him at #5, but Singer wasn’t even in the last time these two teams met, so who knows? At #6, you gotta concede that Whitman has the edge with either Lee or Huskey. Importantly, I think Tyler will sweep the top of the singles lineup again this time. Brown has been playing better and better, and La Cava hasn’t shown even a glimpse of his former form. Martinez has also been rock solid for Tyler, and, as good as Riggs has been, it’s hard to imagine him out-grinding Martinez in the Atlanta heat. If Whitman is going to steal this match, it will involve a win for Malesovas at #1 singles. Even coming off an injury, I just can’t go against Ybarra there.

One thing to keep in mind for this match is that Bizot might switch Brown and Ybarra with the latter coming off an injury. I don’t really think that changes anything. Brown won’t lose to either Squirrel, and Ybarra isn’t any less likely to lose to La Cava than he is to Malesovas. Anyways, 5-2 Tyler.

Emory vs. NCW

One of the surprise results heading into the conference tournament season was Emory’s 5-4 win over NCW. Nothing in either team’s past would have suggested that that match would be close, but NCW has developed into a sort of poor man’s Cal Lu. They have two good players who are capable of taking three matches off just about anyone, which can make any match appear close.

Make no mistake, the last meeting was very close. That’s the nature of a Cal Lu-esque team. If the top two can take care of their three matches, one more doubles team can force the rest of the opposing team to get tight. That’s exactly what happened to the Eagles, the Bishops had a 2-1 lead, Emory’s bottom four looked over and saw their top two getting thrashed, and one of them got very, very nervous. Credit Kahler for pulling that one out, and don’t even think about doubting Emory’s heart. Even the best player gets nervous every now and then.

Anyways, NCW will need to follow the same formula to keep this thing close. Their #1 doubles team is their lifeblood. If they lose, the match is over. If Kjellberg loses, the match is over. If Prostak loses, the match is pretty much over. If NCW has to empty the tank to beat W&L, the match is over. All told, the Bishops are going to need a gutsy performance from one of their lower lineup guys to win this thing, and I’m just not sure if it’s possible. Emory is almost as strong at #5 singles as they are at #1, and if Emory takes a 2-1 lead, the match will be over very, very quickly.

I think that’s exactly what’s going to happen. Emory will get comfortable wins at #2 and #3 doubles and roll at #3, 4, and 6 singles to clinch a 5-1 win. Kahler has been a little suspect for Emory, but Wagner, Mosetick, and Adams have been money all season. No reason to think they’ll start losing now.

The Final

In the final, you’ll probably have Tyler and Emory. Tyler is another Cal Lu wannabe that thrives off the success of their top two singles players. Like Cal Lu, Tyler also has a #3 singles player that has been almost as reliable as their top two. Unlike Cal Lu, Tyler hasn’t been able to win at #2 and #3 doubles with any sort of consistency. Fortunately for them, Emory’s doubles has been a little suspect lately. This could make for a very interesting regional final if they can take advantage of that.

If Emory wins at #1 doubles, this match is pretty much over, so let’s just assume Tyler wins there for the rest of this discussion. The last time Tyler played a full-strength match (against Trinity) they went with Karsten and Ward at #3 doubles. Previously, they had had some success with Karsten and Martinez (wins over P-P and Whitman), and I hope for their sake that they go back to that combo. There’s just no way Karsten and Ward are going to beat Halpern and Adams, which is where Emory is most vulnerable, it seems. If they can’t get that one, the Pats will have to pray for a good performance from Singer and Spencer because they can’t win this thing without a 2-1 lead.

With a 2-1 lead, this thing suddenly becomes a match. Emory has been most vulnerable at #1 and #2 singles, which just so happens to be where Tyler is the strongest. I expect Brown to win in three sets over Ruderman, and a lot will depend on whether or not Ybarra is healthy enough to take down Halpern. Halps is one of the best players in DIII tennis, but he hasn’t returned to full strength yet. After that, Tyler will have to pray for a win somewhere else in the lineup. Martinez would be the most likely source for that magical 5th win (Spencer and Singer are certainly capable as well). Emory has just always been money on their home courts, however, and I really don’t think they’re going to get beat here. Instead, I think they win at 2 and 3 doubles (again), and ice the match early with wins at 4, 5, and 6 singles (Martinez will keep Wagner out there for a while). Brown may finish before the match is decided, so 5-2 Emory. On to the Elite Eight, again.

Region 5

We’re pretty used to the NESCAC Powerhouses getting cupcake draws by now, but just because it’s the norm doesn’t mean it’s not f***ed up. This region features Amherst, Mary Washington, and two 30-40 ranked teams in Stevens and TCNJ. Since it’s pretty obvious that no team here can really even threaten Herst, I’m just gonna keep this short.

Intriguing Matches

Mary Washington vs. Stevens

Mary Washington is missing one of their key performers in Rizzolo. That didn’t prevent them from going 5-4 with W&L, but suffice it to say that they’re vulnerable. The Stevens Camp was all excited about “their first nationally-ranked win” over TCNJ the other week, so let’s see if they can get an actual nationally-ranked win. Stevens has been good in doubles, so the Eagles will have to watch out for that first and foremost. They are also formidable at the top of the singles lineup. Carey has been playing great, so I think he can neutralize that strength. The bottom of the singles lineup should be all Eagles.

Final

Mary Washington vs. Amherst

No disrespect to Mary Wash, but I don’t think even they believe they can win this match. Their only decent wins this year are W&L and Swat, and they had to go down to the wire to get both of them. Amherst just put away Bates with ease, and, despite losing the NESCAC final, has recent wins over Williams and Middlebury. Mary Wash’s best chance for a point comes at #3 doubles where Blahkin can really take over a match. If they don’t get one in dubs, this one will be over 5-0 before any of the Eagles singles players gets a chance to win a match. I’m thinking Amherst probably sweeps this one on their home courts. 5-0 Herst.

Region 6

Region six is about the only decent region out of the bunch. There’s a legitimate #1 seed, strong #2 and 3 teams to test them, and it doesn’t have 5 ranked teams. Well done, NCAA. This region also features a blooming rivalry and a rematch with a change of scenery. Should be interesting.

Intriguing Matches

Gustavus vs. Whitewater

This match is D3Central’s jam, so I’ll leave most of the pontificating to him and just throw in my two cents. I think Gustavus is the better team here, but the talent gap isn’t so huge that Whitewater can’t win. The Warhawks also have the advantage of playing this one on their home courts; they NEVER get to play big matches at home, so that could be a big deal.

As far as lineups go, this thing seems pretty straightforward. Whitewater has the edge at #3 with McGlashen slappen da base. GAC has the edge at #2 with Johnson and Leisner playing solid fundamental doubles. #1 doubles is the swing match. Smith-Dennis and Donkena are one of the best doubles teams in the country, but they’ve got some pretty stiff competition on the other side of the net. Shkylar and Osborne can be extremely dangerous when they get their returns down, and they really know how to close. Last time, the Gusties pulled this one out in a tiebreaker, but the Hawks will need this one if they want to flip the script.

These guys will know what’s coming in singles as well. The only definitive favorite is whoever plays #2 for GAC. The Gusties have banked on that position all year, and I think they’ll get it today. Both teams are deep in singles, but Whitewater’s #4 and #6 didn’t show up last time. Whitewater’s seniors McGlashen, Osborne, and Bayliss went 1-2 in the last match, and their team will need them to win at least two matches here. I’m going to go edge Whitewater at the odd positions, but I think GAC takes #1 doubles to win the match 5-4. Whitewater hasn’t been great in crunch time this year, and I think GAC is more experienced with pressure situations after Texas, Indoors, and California.

The Final

Gustavus vs. Trinity (TX)

The Tigers have already beaten GAC once this year, and the score was 7-2. That was a long, long time ago, but both teams have been improving. Is there some sort of major, uncontrollable factor that could favor one team over another?  I just can’t think of anything that could make a big difference in this match… (one looks to the heavens and single rain drop hits one in face). Oh yeah. The forecast is for rain on Saturday and sun on Sunday. If these two teams play on Whitewater’s faster indoor courts, GAC could keep this thing close. Otherwise, I think it’s all Trinity.

Outside, Skinner and Moreno will roll at #2 doubles. The GAC #2’s are good, but Skinner can really take over a match if serving doesn’t become too much of a factor (like it might inside). GAC has switched their #3 team since the beginning of the year; now they have Al-Houni and Entwistle. They’ve come together nicely, but you can’t go against proven winners in Dunn and Haugen. GAC absolutely needs their #1’s to come up big in this match. I think they definitely win if the match is played inside, but if they have to go outside, Meyer and DelaFuente could win the rematch. Overall, I would say 2-1 Trinity after dubs again. If it goes indoors, I think GAC goes up 2-1.

Singles is where Trinity is really much stronger. Skinner and Haugen were able to completely neutralize GAC’s strength at the top of the lineup last time, and I think Skinner is probably a slam dunk to win at #1. If the match is played inside, Smith-Dennis wins at #2, but the rest of the matches will probably go to Trinity. If the match is played outside, I think Trinity takes their 2-1 lead and gets quick wins from the senior DelaFuente over Luis Chu at #3, the sophomore Curtis over Entwistle at 6 and Skinner over Donkena at 1 for a 5-1 win. If the match is played inside, I think Skinner still wins at #1, but Smith-Dennis pulls away quickly to make it 3-2 GAC. The remaining matches would be close ones, but I still like Curtis at 6 and Moreno at 4 to make it 4-3 Trinity. Then it would come down to #5 and #3. MacGibbon has some good results for GAC at #5 this year, but, in a familiar refrain, I think DelaFuente’s experience will allow him to clinch a 5-3 victory for Trinity in a close three-setter.

Though GAC hasn’t done much lately, this one could get really, really close if played inside. The Gusties are clearly vulnerable outside, but at Indoors, they were able to take down Cruz and were perhaps a match misconduct away from beating Johns Hopkins. Trinity, Hopkins, and Cruz are clearly in the same realm, so obviously an upset is possible here, but the Tigers are the proven winners, and I think they’ll advance to the Elite Eight, even if the match is played Indoors.

The Winner

Trinity (TX)

Region 7

I refuse to dignify this region with a response

The Winner

Wash U

Region 8

As is usually the case, the final region provides easily the most fascinating Sweet Sixteen match outside of the California region. This year, there will be a rematch between Middlebury and Hopkins. None of the other matches will be all that interesting, so let’s just skip to the final.

The Final

Middlebury vs. Johns Hopkins

It seems as though the NCAA went against the ITA rankings on this one, and gave Middlebury hosting privileges. That could be the difference here, as these two teams are very evenly matched. When Hopkins dominated Midd in Baltimore last year, they swept through the bottom half of the singles lineup with relative ease after surrendering a 1-point lead in doubles. These Panthers are a very different team, and the Jays can’t expect to be able to do that again.

After looking beatable for a couple weeks, the Panthers really picked things up in the NESCAC tournament, and are looking good heading into NCAAs. Most recently, they dropped a 5-4 nail biter to Williams when Captain Clutch won a 3rd-set tiebreaker at #5 singles. With wins at #4 and 6 against the Cows, the Panthers are clearly much deeper than they were last year, but I’m really more impressed with their doubles. They were able to take two against Williams and were points away from doing the same against Amherst. You know Coach Hansen will have his team ready to go in doubles, but the question is whether or not they’ll be able to maintain that same level of intensity for what promises to be a long team match.

The Jays have moved Brown and Lim up to #1 doubles, which was the right thing to do, but could be dangerous against the Panthers. Johnston and Lebowitz have been looking phenomenal at #1 doubles, and if they can win there, Middlebury could easily sweep this thing. Unfortunately for the Panthers, they’ve been a bit inconsistent at #2 and #3, and I think Hersh will be able to get his team at least a point at #3 doubles.

With Middlebury leading 2-1 heading into singles, this match will be an absolute war. With Brown at #1 and Hersh at #2, I think the two teams will probably split the top two singles positions. Johnston has been a really tough out against anyone at #1 this season, but he’s far from a lock. Jones has had his struggles. Regardless, at least one of them will bring their A game in this one to make it 3-2 Middlebury. After that, the news is a little less rosy for the Panthers. Hwang has been brilliant at times, and Campbell really hasn’t done much for Middlebury recently. I think Middlebury takes #6 with Mountfield, but Hopkins is really solid at #4 and 5. This is where I think home court matters, and Middlebury will be able to pull the upset at one of those positions to get the 5-4 win. I’ll be looking for Lunghino over Lim at #4 personally.

Honestly, I have absolutely no confidence in this pick. We tend to forget about Hopkins because they don’t play any big matches after their Spring Break, but Middlebury is more battle-tested, and this match is being played on their home courts. If the Hansen effect exists, he’ll be able to get his team past the tough-as-nails Blue Jays in this one.

The Winner

Middlebury

Elite Eight

CMS vs. Middlebury

Kenyon vs. Wash U

Williams vs. Trinity

Amherst vs. Emory

Notice these are the #1 seeds. It’s possible Emory, Trinity, and especially Middlebury lose, but I’m going with the favorites