Whew, what hard work it is to be D3Northeast. Luckily for me, I get two top 20 matchups this weekend, both of them involving DIII’s resident enigma, Amherst. We will find out what kind of team Amherst is this weekend, I guarantee it. In addition to the D3NE matches, I also have the pleasure of previewing CMU vs. Kenyon, as D3Central is swamped with all of his regional matchups.
#17 Amherst College at #20 MIT
Rankings wise, this match is supposed to be close. But it seems as if everyone believes this one is going to be a blowout in Amherst’s favor. I can’t really say that I disagree. I’m a huge fan of the strides MIT has made this season, but I simply think they will be outclassed by the Lord Jeffs. As always, this is assuming that Amherst brings their full team to MIT, considering they have another match at the same time against a lesser team. Judging from the results against Bates, I just have no faith in the Engineers’ doubles right now. They lost the top 2 spots pretty easily against the Bobcats, and even though they won at 3 doubles, Bates is notoriously weak at the bottom of the lineup. Against Amherst, that’s anything but the case. Amherst is simply too strong up and down the doubles lineup for a team that isn’t refined in doubles right now. Unfortunately, I expect a routine sweep by the Lord Jeffs. Maybe one of the top 2 spots can make this thing close with the variability of pro-set doubles, but that’s really MIT’s only chance here. If they’re unable to get any doubles points, this one is going to be over quick. Moving onto singles, I think MIT will be able to make it close at spots 1-3. Zhang, Pang, and Wang are all solid players and they’ll be able to match up decently against the Amherst top 3. However, I just don’t see them pulling all those out, and even two of them will be a huge challenge. What’s going to be interesting to see is who plays 1-4 for Amherst. Right now, I believe it’ll be Joey Fritz at 1, Kahan at 2, Yaraghi at 3, and Ben Fife at 4. This will really be a nice test individually for each of these guys. At the bottom of the lineup, I simply think Amherst will be way too strong. Any combination of Dale/Reindel/Cypers/Rezvin/anyone else is just intimidating. Overall, I’ll take Amherst winning this 8-1 to get their season fully rolling. Sorry to MIT for “disrespecting” but I have way too much faith in talent right now.
#16 Carnegie Mellon University at #2 Kenyon College
This is a rivalry match that occurs every year, and this year happens to be at the hostile home courts of Gambier, Ohio. If you look back at historical matches, this match has almost always been close. I expect more of the same this year. Kenyon is looking to continue on their road to a high #1 seed in NCAAs as well as regional hosting, and this may be a matchup we see in the Sweet 16, actually. CMU is obviously trying to remove all doubt from their Pool C resume with a win here. As with most potential upsets, I think this match will be determined in doubles. Kenyon has been weak so far in doubles, especially at the top 2 spots. Fortunately for them, CMU is still trying to find their way at #1. I think CMU will definitely take #2 doubles, and Kenyon will take #3 if Heerboth/Ye are out there. #1 doubles will be a huge swing match – and it’s got a lot of talent. Raz/Williams vs. Heaney/Miller will be fun to watch and if Kenyon wins this one, the match may be over. However, I think CMU will come out on top here and go into singles 2-1. Now comes the hard part. The Lords are one of the most gritty, workmanlike teams out there, and they will not go down without a fight at every position. I’m really focused on the top 2 singles matches – Burgin and Raz both went three sets last year against CMU to pull out a 5-4 win, and I think if Miller plays 2, we’re looking at two three setters again. At 3, we have Alla of CMU vs Heerboth, and I’m going to go ahead and say it’s going 3 because that’s what Heerboth does. I give the edge to Alla here. At 4 and 5 singles, I think the combo of Williams and Rosensteel have clear advantages over Kumar and Rao, but Rao could turn the tables if he’s playing well. At 6 is a real toss up, as it looks like Yu will be playing against Huber/Ye. Should be a long match and great battle down there, and I give a slight edge to CMU. Overall, you can see I’m predicting battles at 1-3 and 6, all of those could go either way. Problem for CMU is that I think 4 and 5 will be relatively smooth for the Lords, and in the end I can’t go against their workman mindset. 6-3 Lords, on their home courts.
#5 Williams College at #17 Amherst College
This is definitely my match of the weekend (I hope the schedules are right). Amherst will be hosting their strongest NESCAC rival, on their home courts. All of this is happening just after the new national rankings continue to post Amherst at #17. So obviously, this is the Lord Jeffs first shot to prove us all right and break into the top 5. I sure as hell wish I was at Amherst to watch this, and who knows, maybe I will be! The fireworks are sure to explode in this one. Starting off as always with doubles, this is where Williams can really come out strong and start putting some doubts in Amherst’s minds. Williams always has been strong at doubles, and I think they have one definite win at #3 doubles with the experience of Chow/Astrachian over the young duo of Yaraghi/Fife. Historically it just isn’t smart to go with a pair of freshmen in college doubles, there’s always a learning curve and I’m sure the Williams team will be eager to show them the ropes. I think Williams also has a slight edge at #2 doubles with Sun/Micheli, who are a very fundamental team that know each other real well. They’ll be going up against Kahan/Solmiano, who I really haven’t seen play too much. Both of these teams look to be solid teams, so this is a toss up. I’ll take Kahan/Solmiano in a semi-upset. At #1, I think the Ephs have an advantage with Meyer/Schlidivosky against Fritz/Rezvin, given that I don’t have too much faith yet in Fritz’s doubles play. He’s a good player but the Ephs just play great fundamental doubles. I think this match will be another close one, but I go with the Ephs because doubles is what they do. 2-1 Williams moving to singles.
In singles, this will be a dogfight at most matches. At #1, we’re looking at Fritz vs. Meyer. I’ve said before that it’s tough for Meyer to pull huge upsets, and especially on Amherst’s home courts, I’ll take Fritz in two tight sets. Kids got some mean groundstrokes, especially on the backhand side. At #2 is a potential match of the day, with Sun going up against Kahan. Both these guys have the experience, the desire, and the games to compete with each other. I’ll save this match for the decider at the end of the paragraph. At #3 we have Micheli of Williams vs Yaraghi of Amherst. It’s been a while since Micheli has come up bigtime, and here is his chance to shine over the budding freshman. I expect Micheli to muscle shirt his way to a gritty straight set win. At 4 we have freshman Fife of Herst vs. the older Weiss. I think Fife is a more talented player, and Weiss is more of a slightly above average 4. I’ll take Fife routinely if he catches fire. At #5, “Captain Clutch” Chow goes against Dale of Amherst. Take Chow to the bank, this is where he really shines. Lastly, I think Amherst has the clear advantage at #6 singles no matter who they throw out there. Not that the younger Weiss is bad, because he’s clearly not. I just think the Jeffs have enough depth to counter him with the right game style and will take this one. If you haven’t noticed, that leaves it to 4-4, with Kahan and Sun the last guys on. In a heated battle, I’m taking Kahan 7-5 in the third to put Amherst back on the map and potentially the #1 seed in the NESCAC tournament.