A D3West Weekend

There are a couple gems in my region this weekend, headlined by tomorrow’s tilt between #1 CMS and #4 Cal Lu. At the behest of the almighty Nicolas, I thought I would throw some previews your way. Let’s go in chronological order. I’m no Tarantino.

#1 CMS at #4 Cal Lu

We all know the story with Cal Lu, so let’s avoid beating a dead horse and keep it short. They have a really good top 4 when Treacy is in. Millet is capable of winning matches at 5, but he mostly just loses. Whoever they throw in at 6 (looking like Belcher these days) is pretty bad isn’t about to win a match against CMS. In doubles, they’ve put together a very strong top two doubles teams, but still struggle at #3 even though they’re more capable of winning there than at #6 singles.

CMS is obviously solid top to bottom. They don’t have any definitive weaknesses, but each individual player is capable of laying a stinker on any given day. Butts has been a model of consistency, playing #5 or higher when injuries make it necessary. Johnson has performed admirably at #6, but hasn’t been nearly as consistent as the freshman. Let’s get to the breakdown.

In my head #1 doubles is a tossup. Wood and Dorn have lost just two DIII matches this season, and have looked indomitable at times. Ballou and Worley have lost just one match, and have mostly cruised in their other matches. They are especially tough to beat on their home courts, so slight edge to Ballou and Worley if anything. At #2, you’ve got Butts and Kotrappa vs. Millet and Sousa. This could be a huge swing match. Millet and Sousa have been very good, but they’ve had a lot of close calls. If the CMS boys play well, it’s their match to lose. At #3, I think it’s very unlikely that Lane and Marino would lose to Nichols and (Treacy, in all likelihood). I think I’ll take a 2-1 lead for CMS after doubles, with #2 being the swing match.

Singles is pretty straightforward. Wood can put this match away by beating Ballou at #1, but that’s not small order. Ballou crushed Wood the last time they played (finished a match), but I have a feeling this one will be different. Wood has been more consistent lately, and could definitely win if Ballou doesn’t go to Slap City. Dorn has been shaky compared to Worley, so I’ll take the senior on his home courts, even though that one could go either way. Marino vs. Nichols is another swing match. Marino’s mental game could be better, and Nichols is pretty solid, so I could definitely see this going Cal Lu’s way. If Marino gets his serving going, he will roll. After that, the news is considerably less positive for Cal Lu. Lane is starting to get his form back, which should neutralize Treacy coming back from injury. Butts is almost a lock here at 5, and I don’t see how Johnson loses to Belcher. That would give CMS a 5-4 or 6-3 victory depending on #1 singles. If Cal Lu is going to win this match, they’re going to need to follow the same recipe as their match against Williams: 1, 2 dubs, 1, 2, 3 singles.

#22 Whittier at #4 Cal Lu

I’m gonna approach this match thinking Konstantinov is in because with him out, Whittier has no chance. Still, they have very little shot at actually winning, but I think it is possible if Cal Lu plays a  long, long, long match with CMS the day before. The Poets will need to win at a few key positions, because frankly, they match up pretty terribly with Cal Lu. Seneviratne and Konstantinov need to beat Ballou and Worley, no small task. They need to win #3 doubles, which I think they could or should with Herron down there. They need a healthy Shimizu to get them a win at #6, and they need their freshman Farmer to come through at #5 singles. Even if all that goes right, they’ll still be looking for a fifth victory, and I don’t see where that comes from.

Ballou will almost certainly beat Seneviratne. Konstantinov has been good at #2, but not nearly as good as Worley. If Whittier is going to steal a match, this could be a position where it happens. I’m still taking Worley. Even though Schommer’s results show that he is capable of playing at an extremely high level (wins over Cummins and Lipscomb) I don’t see Schommer beating Nichols. If Treacy is healthy, he has the definite edge over Herron, but #4 is a strong spot for Whittier, and that could be another opportunity for Whittier to steal one. We all know Cal Lu can lose to anyone (i.e. Mary Washington) if their doubles goes wrong, but I don’t see it happening here today. I like Ballou and Worley at #1 doubles and a sweep of the top 4 singles spots at the least for a routine 6-3 or 7-2 win.

#12 Redlands at #1 CMS

Again, this match gets much, much more interesting if CMS and Cal Lu play a marathon the day before, but I still don’t see how this one goes Redlands’ way. On the right day, Lipscomb could beat Wood, but you gotta go with CMS’ sophomore there. Hard to take Cummins over Dorn. Hyde could definitely steal one for the Dawgs if Marino is off. Hunt is in the middle of a long winning streak, but it’s kinda hard to see him beating Lane. There’s another strong spot for Redlands, though, which they will need if they want to pull off the miracle upset. Then they have Brewer and Lousche. If Johnson is having a bad day, I could see Lousche winning that one, but Butts should definitely beat Brewer in straights.

Redlands has a really strong #1 team, and they will need that match if they’re gonna beat CMS. The Dawgs’ 2’s have been their least consistent spot, by far (losses to Mary Wash and Depauw), and I think CMS will come away with that one. Redlands has been trying out Licona and Jones at #3 to mixed results. So far they’ve lost to Williams and Middlebury, though, so it doesn’t seem as though they are capable of beating a high-level doubles team like Lane and Marino. In this one, I will take CMS with a 2-1 lead in doubles, at least, with victories at #2 and #3. Then, the Stags will roll in singles with singles wins at 1, 2, 4, 5, and maybe 6. 7-2 CMS.