Weekend Preview – Big ASouth Weekend

It’s been a while since I did any actual previews, simply because I hate doing the regular preview format and also because my colleagues are really awesome.  However, we have a big weekend in ASouth this weekend, surprisingly, and it’s my non-paying job to get these matches some love.  This weekend we have Swarthmore, Washington and Lee, NC Wesleyan, CMU, and Hop all getting out there for some early spring/late winter (fuck you, Punxsutawney Phil) action.  And we’re off!

Johns Hopkins at Swarthmore

At first glance people will see this matchup and simply brush over the fact this is even being played.  You can do that, BUT THAT WOULD BE IGNORANT.  It’s what I would have done beginning of the season.  However, Swarthmore has proven to be a tough singles team (not really in doubles) and if Hopkins shows up not ready to play, they might be in for a bit of a surprise.  Problem for Swarthmore, however, is that they are really bad at doubles.  I don’t have any other way to put it.  Actually, I just checked their results.  Against their past 6 ranked opponents… they have won… 0 DOUBLES MATCHES.  That’s 0 for 18, for those of you that are struggling in calculus.  The smart prediction here is that Hopkins will sweep doubles.  They’ll win at 2 and 3 for sure based on their lineup.  Maybe Swat can take #1 against Joachim and Garcia.  But, I’m not going against the streak.  Maybe they can beat the Heat’s streak now that it’s over.  Moving onto singles, I think the matches to watch here are 1-3 singles.   Brown will go up against Collard, who has notched wins over Ruderman, Weichart, and Krimbill this year.  It should be a nice test for Brown in his new spot.  Then we get to Hersh and Hwang at #2 and #3, and as I mentioned, both have struggled this year.  Hopkins should in theory take both, but I feel like someone will disappoint.  Overall, I’m taking Hopkins 8-1.  However, the singles should be close and a good test before Hopkins match on Sunday.

CMU at Washington & Lee

True to form, CMU will also be playing a mid 20’s opponent before what I have dubbed the best rivalry in the ASouth (ya, we’re not really an intense region).  At this point in the year, my experience is that Washington & Lee basically goes through the motions against good teams.  I actually can’t remember the last time they pulled a huge upset.  Spoiler Alert: It probably won’t happen here.  My positions to watch in this match are as follows: 1 and 2 doubles as well as 1, 4, and 5 singles.  CMU has been mixing and matching teams all year, and it seems as if they don’t have a true #1 team.  They don’t use the “screw 1, lets win 2 and 3” strategy that a lot of top teams do, so that makes them vulnerable at all positions.  White for W&L at 2 doubles makes this thing even scarier.  However, CMU did sweep Tyler and had a lead against Bowdoin, so I’ll have them taking 1 and 3 doubles, and being up 2-1.  #1 singles should be a really great matchup.  Heaney-Secord has struggled as of late, and White is a tough out for any 1 singles player.  He’s got the game, the antics, and the fight to win these type of matches.  I think he takes it at #1, continuing Heaney-Secord’s (I hate typing that every time) slump.  #2, #3, and #6 will be CMU, should be pretty easily.  CMU has deceptively struggled at #4 and 5, Kumar and Hasegawa have not had any big wins other than Amherst in the fall, and Kumar was blown out over spring break.  I think they win these matches, but it would be a telling sign if they struggle.  Overall, I take CMU 7-2.

NC Wesleyan at W&L

You know what I just realized? Has anyone ever played on the NCW courts?  Do they even have courts?  I really want the answer to this question.  I know I just killed any thoughts that you may have had about me being from NCW, but seriously, this blog is in English.  Shouldn’t have been your thoughts anyways.  Moving to the match, W&L is the perfect matchup for NCW.  Good at the top, semi-weak at the bottom, and not really about that regular season shit.  NCW should definitely take 1 and 2 with the rise of Ljungdahl as a legit 3 singles player and 2 doubles player.  #3 is up for grabs, as I think the NCW team is really weak, and with the way W&L’s doubles is set up – they should be able to come away with that one.  With a 2-1 singles lead in hand, I think Kjellberg will beat White – he doesn’t really get affected by any BS that happens on the court.  2 and 3 should go NCW’s way with Prostak and Ljungdahl both playing really well.  That makes it 5-1, and with both bottom of the lineups being weak, it’s a tossup at most spots.  I’ll take W&L at 5 and 6, and NCW at 4 to round out a 6-3 NCW victory.

CMU at Johns Hopkins

Let’s get the blood flowing for this one!  I described this as the best AS rivalry on Twitter, mostly by default but also because these guys always gut it out at ITAs.  You can tell from watching these teams play that they hate each other.  And the stakes really couldn’t get any higher for this match.  If Hopkins loses, they almost guarantee losing a 1 seed and regional hosting for NCAAs.  If CMU loses, they put themselves in a position where they need to beat Kenyon to get higher than a 4 seed in UAAs.  With their remaining schedule, they’ll probably need to get the #2 in UAA to make Pool C, or take #3 and hope for some help.  If you didn’t know, a 4 seed would get them Chicago 1^st round and Emory in the semis.  And that really sucks.  So, you can see how important this is.

Despite being two good programs, this matchup has not been close in probably 3 years.  That’s mostly due to Hopkins getting out ahead with their “weak doubles,” and CMU playing out the match with 0 confidence after that.  This time around, it could get interesting.  I give CMU the advantage at 1 doubs with Miller/Heaney, and clearly Hop with the advantage at 2 with Brown/Lim.  #3 is a huge swing match.  Hersh/Camei are a good 3 team but have their struggles.  CMU hasn’t put the same 3 team out there in a while.  To me, if CMU goes down 2-1, they’ll lose this match after doubles.  Personally, I think they lose at 3 due to Hersh/Camei’s familiarity with each other and the fact that Hersh is a gamer.

With a 2-1 lead in hand, it’s time to battle.  Brown/Heaney-Secord was a pleasure to follow last year, as it went 3 sets and Brown won in a close third set.  Both players have obviously improved.  I expect this one to go three sets, and Brown winning – he’s been playing exceptional, he’s on his home courts, and Heaney hasn’t won in a while.  At #2 is Alla vs. Hersh, which is a rematch of an ITA beatdown by Hersh.  This gets me into questioning (once again) why Alla is playing 2 and Miller is not.  Either way, I’m taking Hersh on home courts and game style.  For #3 singles is Miller vs Hwang, which will be an incredible matchup of great ground strokers.  Hwang is solid all around the court, and Miller has big shot abilities.  In his senior season, I have Miller posting up big and taking this one.  #4 singles will put Lim vs Kumar, and this is my easiest pick of the match.  Lim is already a seasoned veteran, with huge wins under his belt, and Kumar is struggling a bit.  Lim in two easy sets.  Given Hopkins courts, #5 and #6 will go on after the first two matches finish, and it could still be a match at this point.  #5 is another swing match, especially if it’s Weissler/Hasegawa.  Limited big match experience for both, and I’ll take Weissler based on recent results.  At #6 it’ll be Reiter/Rao, which I believe happened last year as well – where Reiter destroyed him.  Reiter hasn’t been playing at tip-top form, but I’m not going to go against past results here either.  However, Rao is a senior and has been playing decently as of late, so I wouldn’t be surprised if he pulls one out.  Add everything up, it’s a close 7-2 win for Hop, with #3 doubles, #1 singles, #5 singles, and # 6 singles up in the air.  If CMU is going to win this, they have to step up for once this season.  I see Hopkins just being too strong on their home courts.