SCIAC Preview

It’s time to start thinking about the two huge events of the weekend: the SCIAC and NESCAC tournaments.

The SCIAC tournament is being hosted by Redlands this year, and as far as I know, the seeding for the SCIAC tournament goes as such:

1. CMS

2. Cal Lutheran

3. Pomona-Pitzer

4. Redlands

5. Whittier

6. Occidental

7. Cal Tech

Redlands vs. Whittier

Before I get to the important semifinal matchups, I want to try using the Universal Tennis Rankings to preview the Redlands/Whittier match. Conventional knowledge would say that Redlands is going to win the match, but it was close last time, and Whittier could win on the right day.

#1 Singles: Patrick Lipscomb (11.25) vs. Julian Seneviratne (10.77)

#2 Singles: Nick Cummins (10.92) vs. Patricio Carregha (10.19)

#3 Singles: Mark Bloom (10.00) vs. Chris Schommer (9.70)

#4 Singles: Anish Nanda (10.55) vs. Matthew Herron (10.00)

#5 Singles: Taylor Hunt (10.13) vs. Andrew Hanson (9.22)

#6 Singles: Jack Reynolds (9.47) vs. Shogo Shimizu (9.19)

You never know who Redlands is going to throw out there at the bottom of the lineup (so I just went with their lineup from the Pomona-Pitzer match, but I’m not sure what happened to Dahl), but UTR seems to think that Redlands is favored at every singles position, which is probably the case. Unfortunately, the system doesn’t cover doubles teams, but UTR aside, I think this match will play out a lot like the Kenyon/Denison rematch. Redlands will know that they have a fight on their hands and come out stronger than last time. They will take at least two out of three doubles matches and roll to a 8-1 or 7-2 victory. If Whittier is favored at any position, it’s #6 singles where Shimizu has put together a great season. Reynolds has been equally impressive for the Bulldogs, however, and Redlands just seems to be stronger at every other singles position. The SCIAC tournament is also being held at Redlands, which could make a difference in the score of this rematch.

Semifinals

CMS vs. Redlands

These two teams played each other just a few weeks ago. Since the result wasn’t even close that time, I don’t really think Redlands can pull off the upset, even on a good day. Redlands’ only chance is to sweep the doubles, but CMS is going to be a way stronger at #3 with either Wei/Kotrappa or Marino/Wood there. I think the Stags come out of doubles with at least a 2-1 lead and then roll to an easy 5-1 win in singles by winning at 2, 3, and 4. Hunt and Reynolds have been playing great for Redlands, and Bernhardt had a disappointing Ojai, so there’s upset potential at the bottom of the lineup. I think CMS will put this one away, 5-1, before that has a chance to happen, though. After the match is decided, I think the Stags will run away with an 8-1 victory.

On the individual side of things, one interesting aspect of this match is to see if Erani and Lane play #1 doubles to try to consolidate their Ojai win into a #4 regional ranking. I think the Wood/Marino team is currently on the outside looking in, and Erani/Lane probably has a better chance to make it. Obviously, Settles is going to go with whatever he thinks is best for his team, but that will be one thing to look for, especially since Bloom/Lipscomb are currently on the outside looking in and will need wins against CMS and whoever they play in the 3rd place match to get into nationals.

Pomona-Pitzer vs. Cal Lutheran

The arc of this year’s Cal Lutheran season reminds me a lot of their 2010 season. They got hot around Spring Break and beat several good teams. Then, they either got tired or injured and cooled off a little bit. The 2010 recipe for success for the Kingsmen was to sweep the doubles and win at #1 and 2 singles because they didn’t really have the depth. This year’s team is much stronger top-to-bottom in singles, but they still have the same recipe (except it’s 1 and 3 singles, they don’t sweep doubles as often, and they’re more capable of getting wins at the bottom of the singles lineup).

Pomona-Pitzer is very similar, except they aren’t as strong where Cal Lutheran is strong, and they aren’t as weak where Cal Lutheran is weak. The last time these two teams met, the Kingsmen took advantage of some poor clutch play in doubles by the Hens and fought their way to a 5-4 victory. If Cal Lu is going to win this match, I think they will need to win at least two doubles matches because they won’t be able to win #6 singles again with Singh in the lineup this time. As far as a match-by-match breakdown goes, I think Cal Lu wins #1 doubles, but Pomona-Pitzer takes the other two to get a 2-1 lead heading into singles. Cal Lu wins #1 and 3 singles, but Weichert wins at 2 for Pomona-Pitzer. #4: Hudson over Treacy. #5: Millet over Allinson. Then, the difference in this match will be Singh winning at 6 for the Hens to give them the 5-4 upset win.

This one could obviously go either way based on last match’s result. A lot depends on Pomona-Pitzer’s ability to win #2 and 3 doubles. #1 doubles is by no means a lock for Cal Lu, but when Ballou/Worley play well, they can win fast. If that happens, the Hen 2’s and 3’s would feel a lot of pressure to get the lead heading into singles because I’m not sure Pomona-Pitzer can win if they have to come from behind. Regardless, the Hens have shown themselves to be one of the best doubles teams in the country, and I think that will lead them to victory in this match.

3rd Place

Redlands vs. Cal Lutheran

When Cal Lutheran beat Redlands 6-3 earlier this spring, Patrick Lipscomb wasn’t in the lineup. If him being in the lineup is going to make a difference this time around, he’s going to have to actually win one of his matches, because I don’t think the effect of pushing everyone down one spot would be enough to put them over the top. Whereas Cal Lu’s lineup has remained completely static over the year, Redlands has made some pretty significant changes, so the Kingsmen will be playing a completely different team.

The #2 and 3 doubles matches will be rematches. Since the Bulldogs won those matches comfortable last time, I would have to pick them again in this one, though anything can happen. Having Lipscomb instead of Burchett in at #1 doubles is pretty significant improvement, but I don’t think it will make a difference, and Cal Lutheran should win there again. In singles, you have Lipscomb vs. Ballou, which I think Ballou should win easily. Then, you have Cummins vs. Wilson. Counting Ojai, Wilson has now beaten Bloom twice, so this match could make a huge difference for the Bulldogs. Cummins was playing well going into Ojai, but he lost in the first round, and I think the experience and confidence that comes with playing two extra matches will lift Wilson to the victory. (Plus, he’s due and is capable of beating a lot of #2’s). Worley has to be favored to beat Bloom at #3, but then things get interesting. Nanda vs. Treacy is no sure thing for the Kingsmen, but Nanda hasn’t really been able to come up with a big win the for the Bulldogs this year, and I think he’ll fall short again. I like Hunt to beat Millet at #5 because the matchup is favorable, and Reynolds beat Sousa comfortably last time, so there’s no reason to go against that. Add it all together and you get a 5-4 Cal Lutheran victory, which would be a fitting end to the regular season for them after all of their 5-4 matches.

The interesting thing about this match is that the Bulldogs really could (and maybe even should) win this match. Unfortunately, their two biggest wins came in February, and they haven’t been able to put it all together since then. The reason I’m picking Cal Lu is because when things have gotten tight this year, Cal Lu has occasionally been able to raise their level and pull out the victory. Between Trinity (TX), Pomona-Pitzer, and Santa Cruz, the Bulldogs have shrunk from the big moment every time this year. With the exception of the Whittier match, they only win when they’re comfortably ahead the whole time. Going back to last year with their matches against Trinity (CT), Pomona-Pitzer, and Middlebury, they haven’t been able to win a truly big match in quite some time. If they can break the pattern, I would have thought this year would have been a good time for it with three freshmen in their starting lineup now, but it hasn’t been the case. D3tennis seems to think I like that Redlands is currently in the 7th Pool C spot. That’s not really true. Their resume makes it so that they deserve the spot, but they could have done so much more, and a 5-4 loss in the 3rd place match would be a fitting end to a disappointing season if they ended up getting knocked out of Pool C.

Final

CMS vs. Pomona-Pitzer

Remember the beginning of the year when I picked CMS to win every match they played comfortably? After their month-long hiccup, I’m back to that stage. They should have been dominant the whole time, but with their whole team healthy now, they haven’t been seriously tested by a team since March 30th.

To echo my sentiments from above, they have three doubles teams that are capable of winning at #1 doubles, so whoever they throw at #3 is essentially a lock. I predict they’ll go with Erani/Lane at #1, which finally gives them a combo that can consistently win at the #1 spot. I don’t think they’ll drop Marino/Wood all the way to 3, but those streaky freshmen are capable of beating anyone at #2 doubles (though they can also lose to just about anyone). That bumps Wei/Kotrappa to #3, which is just too good. Pomona-Pitzer is a great doubles team, but I think they will find themselves outmatched this time around. I like CMS at #1 and 3 doubles, though I would expect Pomona-Pitzer to win at 2 to avoid the sweep.

In singles, Wood vs. Meyer is a bit of a tossup. Wood won last time, but when he’s off, he’s really off, and Meyer would be able to take advantage. Weichert is a great 2, but Lane usually finds a way to win, so I’ll pick him. Erani is pretty much a lock at #3. The Stags are also heavy favorites at the bottom 3 positions, but I expect the Hens to come out fighting, and I think they will find a way to take one of those matches. Still, I think the Stags will come away with a hard-fought 7-2 win again.