Weekend Preview-ish

Sorry, everybody. I meant to post about this weekend’s festivities, but I ran out of time yesterday. Wash U beat Carnegie Mellon in the UAA semifinal after getting swept in doubles (they really need to learn how to play doubles). Emory cruised through the whole tournament, pretty much as expected. Middlebury and Amherst are already playing, and if you want to know my thoughts on that match, just look at last week’s preview. They haven’t really changed. I think the Panthers are going to get soundly beaten. Then there’s this:

#3 Williams vs. #9 Bowdoin

Bowdoin has been successful so far this year because they play phenomenal doubles. I think they are going to struggle in this match because they are going up against a team that also plays fantastic doubles, and they won’t be able to keep up with them in singles. I’ll take Williams at #2 doubles. #1 and 3 doubles are both tossups in my mind, but Bowdoin needs both of them if they want a sliver of hope to win this match. I think Chow and Meyer take care of business at 1, giving the Ephs a 2-1 lead heading into singles. After that, #1 singles should be a battle, but Williams will definitely win at #2. Lord can beat just about anyone at 3, but Williams should dominate the bottom of the singles lineup. I think they’ll win this one 7-2 or 6-3, depending on how #1 singles goes.

I will do a more extensive writeup on this weekend’s action later today, but right now, I’m pressed for time. If anyone has match previews, results, or thoughts, please don’t hesitate to post them below.

Starting up again.

#3 Williams vs. #15 Bates

Bates was re-exposed this last week in their matches against Bowdoin and (to a lesser extent) Trinity. They just don’t have the depth to beat the top 4 NESCAC teams, and that will definitely prevent them from winning this match. The Cows are basically guaranteed to win 4, 5, and 6 singles. With Sun at 2 and their #2 doubles team, that’s five matches that Williams should win 9 times out of 10. After that, I would say 1 and 3 singles are probably tossups. Williams is the definite favorite at 1 and 3 doubles, but I’ll predict that Bates will take one doubles and one singles match for a 7-2 win.

NCAC Championships

I think it’s pretty safe to project Kenyon into the final and that Depauw and Denison will play each other in the semis, so let’s start from there.

#29 Denison vs. #30 Depauw

These teams played literally a week ago. I don’t know what would have changed in the last week that would change the result, but it’s difficult for a team to beat an equally good team twice in a row. Denison should come out fired up and ready to avenge their loss; but Depauw will know that their season is on the line, so there shouldn’t be much risk of a let down. Denison absolutely lives and dies on their doubles play, and they will need to win at least two matches to beat the Tigers. Depauw has the better, more experienced team at #1, and I think they can be counted on to pull out the big match. After that, the two doubles matches are tossups, and it’s more a question of whether either team will get tight in the big moment. I’ll take the classic “#1 singles player playing #3 doubles” to pull that team through, giving Depauw the 2-1 lead after doubles again. In singles, I would have thought that Denison would be stronger, but that didn’t prove to be the case the last time these two teams met. Depauw won the two three-setters last time, and if those had gone the other way, Denison would have won (obviously). I’m guessing there will be at least three 3-setters in this match, and Depauw will have to win two of them to win the match. I’ll take Depauw to win 5-4 with victories at 1 and 3 doubles; 1, 4, and 6 singles. That’s more of a guess than anything else, but I would rather see a Depauw/Kenyon final.

#4 Kenyon vs. #30 Depauw

I’m going to preview this match without knowing the result of the semifinal because Kenyon/Denison has already happened. If the two teams were to meet again in the conference final, Kenyon would “bring it” much harder and win the match handily, knowing how close they came to losing the last time they met the Big Red. With Depauw, the Lords are dealing with an unknown. The Tigers definitely haven’t had the season they wanted, but they can rectify everything (and ruin Redlands, CMU, or Wash U’s season) by winning this one match. If they do get to the final, they will be heavy underdogs, and just about the only way I see them winning against the Lords is if they manage to sweep doubles. I think the Tigers are actually favored at #1 doubles, but Kenyon is way stronger at #2 and probably a little stronger at #3 also. If the Depauw can two doubles matches fast, the last Kenyon team on might tighten up a little bit. In the end, I don’t think there’s any way Depauw can actually win this match. Kenyon is more vulnerable than any other top 5 team, especially if Razumovsky is still injured, but this is the same Depauw team that almost lost to Luther. Kenyon will win #2 doubles, #1, 3, 4, and 5 singles to win this match, but if they take more than one doubles match, it could get ugly fast. I’ll take Kenyon in a 6-3 win in the final (if Raz is out. 7-2 if he is in).