Tuesday
#3 Williams vs. #10 Santa Cruz
This is another one of those matches that Cruz has absolutely no business winning on paper. D3tennis thinks that Williams, Amherst, and Emory are just way better than everyone else, but crazier things have happened this season. In reality, I don’t think the Slugs can win this one. The Ephs are stronger where Cruz is strong: they have the best doubles team in the country and very good 2 and 3 teams, Sun should beat Koenig, and Williams should be the deeper of the two teams. Still, anything can happen, especially in a doubles pro set. If Cruz has a chance, they will have to sweep the doubles, which is a very difficult task against Williams. In the end, I think Williams will take 2 of 3 doubles, and roll to a 6-3 win.
#5 NCW vs. #30 Christopher Newport
CNU pushed Cal Lu to 5-4, but they just don’t have the depth to beat NCW in singles. The Battling Bishops have had a bit of a doubles relapse of late, and if we’re going to see another crazy upset, it will be because CNU wins all three doubles and then takes 1 and 2 singles. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Even if NCW continues to struggle in doubles, they are basically a lock at 3-6 singles, and they should be able to win 2 and 3 doubles. I’m going to take NCW 7-2.
Wednesday
#3 Williams vs. #9 Cal Lutheran
The Ephs continue their brutal Spring Break schedule against Cal Lu on Wednesday. It’s really difficult to predict what will happen with Cal Lu this season, but this should be a very close match. At #1 doubles, we have a rematch of the Small College final. The Williams duo won in Alabama, but on Cal Lu’s home courts, that one could go either way. Williams is probably favored at 2 and 3 doubles, but, again, we all know how pro sets can be. Meyer has looked good, and Ballou has been a little inconsistent, but if he shows up, Cal Lu would be favored there. Sun is the favorite at #2, and #3 singles should be close. I’m still not really sure what I think of Cal Lu’s depth, and Redlands was just able to take 4 and 6 singles from Williams. I don’t really want to make a prediction, but I’m going to guess that Cal Lu will win the odd numbered singles matches, but Williams will win at 2 and 3 doubles, 2, 4, and 6 singles for the 5-4 victory.
#10 Santa Cruz vs. #15 Redlands
This is an absolutely massive match for Redlands. As repetitive as this is beginning to sound, a win would put them back in the driver’s seat for Pool C. Redlands is a very difficult place to play, but Cruz has already beaten Trinity with Straus, and Trinity beat Redlands on their home courts without Straus. For that reason, I think you have to pick Cruz, but this match could honestly go either way. I didn’t mention this in the Williams preview, but will we get a Larsen sighting? I’ll take Cruz in a 5-4 thriller.
Thursday
#30 Depauw vs. #26 Wisconsin-Whitewater
Neither of these teams have been in action for a very long time, and both are coming off disappointing results in their last big matches. After beating Chicago, Whitewater failed to show up against Kalamazoo and lost, and Depauw’s only decent win is over Luther. It’s hard to imagine Depauw getting knocked out of the rankings, but that’s probably what would happen if they lose this one. I’ve been extremely critical of Whitewater in the past, but they have shown that they are great competitors. My brain tells me to pick Depauw just because they’ve been good for such a long time, but Whitewater’s body of work has been better this year, so I’m going to have to pick them in another 5-4 win. I think the Warhawks will take 2 of 3 doubles and win at the heart of their singles lineup.
#7 Middlebury vs. #13 Pomona-Pitzer
I should just put matches where one team has a chance to put themselves in the Pool C driver seat in red font or something because this is another one of those matches. A win would give Pomona-Pitzer a direct win over a Pool C competitor, and Middlebury hasn’t played a significant match yet this year. The Panthers also could struggle with California weather and the West time zone, and they might not be ready for P-P’s intensity. Middlebury, however, will know that they don’t really have a good win on their resume yet, and if they start off their trip with a loss, they could put themselves in an uncomfortable position with Pool C. I have no idea where Middlebury is strong or weak, but I know that they are really good, and Hansen will have his players ready for their first bid match. Pomona plays great doubles, and they are looking really good at #2 and 3 singles, but I’m guessing Middlebury will take care of business 6-3.
Friday
#7 Middlebury vs. #18 CMS
New rankings come out on the 29th, so by the time these two play, it will probably be a matchup of top 10 teams. Hansen may have moved to Midd, but I don’t think that’s going to put much of a damper on his and Settles’ “friendly” rivalry. We don’t really know anything about Middlebury yet, and we’re still waiting to find out what kind of team CMS is. This will also be the Stags’ first match in which they could potentially play their other two stud freshmen. I’m going to wait to see how Midd does against P-P to make a prediction, but I invite everyone to comment below. I hope CMS has their live video feed for this one.
#17 Whittier vs. #13 Pomona-Pitzer
This is a poor match up for Whittier. The Poets are strongest at #1 doubles and #1-4 singles, but P-P has 3 really good doubles teams, and they are probably stronger at #2 and 3 singles. Seneviratne vs. Meyer has individual implications, but I don’t think it will effect the outcome of the team match. Even if Whittier manages to win #1 doubles and #1 singles, I don’t think they will find 3 more wins elsewhere in the lineup, and Pomona-Pitzer will escape with a 6-3 victory.
The live stats “real time” scoreboard AND live streaming video are both available for the Middlebury vs. CMS match at 2:00 PM Pacific Time. To access either one, click on the CMS Tennis link on this website, open the Schedule/Results, find today’s match and click on either Live Stats or Video.
Another time where P-P comes up just short. They’ll push anyone in the country but just can’t seem to break through on those top 10 wins this season. Curious to how they respond tomorrow in a potential trap match. They’ve been great avoiding those in every other shortcoming this year but at some point you have to think they’ll hit their breaking point.
Cruz beats Redlands 6-3.
Cruz up 2-1 over Redlands after dubs
4-4 CLU v. Williams. It comes down to #5 singles – Williams up a set there.
Cal Lu up 4-2, but struggling in their remaining matches
To be totally honest, I think this blog in general overrates Middlebury. I understand Hansen is a great coach, but we don’t know anything about how well they are playing at the moment and they have their 3 from last year (Parower) playing 1 now, which probably means they are a similar team to last year or maybe even weaker. Let’s see how this plays out and see if Midd steps up this year.
Completely agree. I don’t think Middlebury belongs to top 10 this year. They did beat Bates 7-2 before heading out west, but it was indoors at Middlebury. They have also played against couple of NAIA teams (Vanguard and Concordia)and I’ve not been impressed. However, we’ll see their real strength when they play PP and CMS this week. I’m taking PP 5-4 and CMS 7-2 in those matches.
I’m gonna play devil’s advocate here and say that I don’t think Midd is being overrated because I think everyone has been treating them as an unknown. On paper they are dropping off a little off last year if you take that as a black and white BUT remember that they were still a pretty big step ahead of the rest of the NESCAC crew that wasn’t Amherst and Williams and they were VERY young. So while they lost some talent you also have to assume they have matured and grown talent as well. This is all before the Hansen effect. To say he has none would be incredibly short sided. He turned Cruz into a perennial contender with incoming guys with far less junior experience and baseline levels of talent. I think everyone is giving them credit because they are imagining the possibility of what he’s doing with guys that are so much farther along all ready. Plus if there’s a coach in the country that can get his guys up for a match and somehow find a way its Hansen. Finally, yes they are completely unknown but also remember they are going to be as high as they are because the teams in front of them have done nothing to hold down a spot. Lets wait for some results to happen before we jump to conclusions either way on them
I definitely agree with this. Yes, Parower certainly won’t be the best #1 out there, nor is Angle an ideal #2… But check out Midd’s 3-6. Those guys will be tough outs for absolutely any team. I’ve seen Pomona this season and Midd a lot in the past, and it seems to me like P-P will likely have to sweep dubs to win this.
I think Meyer and Wiechert can definitely win singles, but it’s hard to give them any matches 3-6. Sabel is solid and a great competitor, but I’m just not sure he can take down Jones at 3. Allinson’s a technically solid player for P-P and always looks like he’s playing well, but his results have been horrible this season. Hudson is an excellent freshman, but despite his huge forehand, smart opponents figure out how to break down his backhand. Singh is a very good competitor at 6, and with his experience, he should win. That said, the guy can be beat by any aggressive opponent – and Bruchmiller fits that bill.
So as I see it, unless P-P gets crucial wins from 3, 5, or 6 singles, they will need a dubs sweep to beat Midd. I won’t even try to predict the CMS-Midd match since we never know how the Stags will show up. Erani and Johnson really need to up their level of play for them to win, though.
Interesting win by Cruz over UC San Diego 6-3. San Diego is pretty good D2 competition. Williams must be quite good to handle Cruz relatively easily.
UC San Diego has really dropped off. A couple years ago they were definitely a good D2 team but in this last year, they have lost players and haven’t maintained that same powerful team.
UCSD has had good recruiting the last few years, and they beat Redlands and Whittier convincingly earlier this year, beat UC. Riverside, and are no. 16 in D II. They would be top 10 in DIII or thereabouts, so it is a very solid win for Cruz, on par with the win over CMS (without two of their three excellent freshmen).
Probably too early for this since tomorrow and thursday’s matches have yet to take place but since I won’t be in town then I’d like to take a stab at this weeks ranking release and encourage feedback. I will note that a lot of my placements are based on where they already were so teams won’t leapfrog or move down unless a direct win or loss warrants such.
1. Amherst
2. Emory
3. Williams
4. Kenyon
5. Middlebury
6. Whitman
7. Cal Lutheran
8. UC Santa Cruz
9. Trin Tx
10. NCW
11. CMS
12. Hopkins
13. Pomona-Pitzer
14. Bowdoin
15. Washingotn University
16. Skidmore(Didn’t jump last time for Trin Tx win when they should have)
17. Carnegie
18. Redlands (They will finish better than this I’m sure but for now I don’t see how to get them higher)
19. Bates
20. Whittier
21. Trinity Ct
22. Swarthmore
23. Case Western
24. Mary Wash (Still clinging to the Cal Lu win)
25. Gustavus (Looking forward to seeing what they do in California)
26. Kalamazoo
27. Wisconsin Whitewater
28. Chicago
29. MIT
30.1 Christopher Newport
30.2 Depauw
That’s my look at things, obviously there will probably be some controversial ones because hey how could there not with the way things have gone. I’m also sure I probably just triggered another week of upsets to blow these predictions to shreds.
I simply tried to do the rankings objectively and how I think they will be put together. I didn’t reward Bowdoin as much but rather moved WashU down and kept that cluster sort of in the same order. I also jumped Bates but not ahead of Redlands who holds the direct win. Also CMS jumps but only ahead of Hopkins because they still lack the wins above them. These are just my thoughts and in by no ways an absolute science so feedback is absolutely welcome but there was logic behind each spot, all I ask is that when you do constructively criticize, please provide your reasoning behind such argument.
I’m glad you threw these out there because it will spur some debate, and I honestly have no idea what the rankings will look like
Also, CMS will probably be ranked ahead of NCW, as they will be the beneficiary of the Carnegie loss. If Skidmore didn’t jump last time, they won’t jump higher now without having won any more matches. There’s a definite cluster@#$@ in the 10-20 range, but 21-30 looks good in my opinion, except you missed Washington & Lee, who will be in there somewhere, probably ahead of both Case and Mary Washington at 23
Ooh thanks yea I definitely spaced on Washington & Lee good catch. True on the CMS benefitting but my logic behind keeping them just behind NCW was the Swarthmore loss is worse than the Carnegie match and Kenyon is still in top 10 where the CMS wins aren’t. Again it can be argued so many different ways and that was just my opinion but I totally understand your logic.
As for Skidmore, I just assumed the rankings committee had already finished rankings before the Skidmore win over Trin Tx so they didn’t include it. Otherwise I don’t understand how they didn’t gain from the Trin Tx win with their worst loss being WashU this season. I could be wrong again but in my opinion I can’t put them behind Whittier when they have a direct win over a top 10 team.
Why Cal Lu ahead of Cruz before they play?
I had Cal Lu ahead of Cruz because of the Kenyon result and because of CMS not being higher in rankings. If this were a year where CMS hadn’t lost to Swarthmore then the Cruz win would have put them way ahead obviously but these are the times we live in. You could certainly argue it the other way because of Cal Lu’s Mary Wash hiccup but I chose to overlook it because they followed up the next match with another top 10 win that Cruz didn’t have.
Re the new rankings: How did Whitman move down after beating two top 20 teams back to back on the road since the last ranking period? How does Cruz move ahead of them, or Cal Lu and CMS move ahead of them?
shouldn’t Carnegie be ahead of Wash U and Skidmore now?
Yes you’re right Carnegie should be in that spot right ahead of WashU but behind Bowdoin. Good catch. I forgot to move them because the original way I put this together was a little different before realizing this way made more sense to me.
17-18 Redlands, Carnegie (maybe even Bates) should be over 15-16 Wash U and Skid
Redlands wins: WashLee, Bates, Swarthmore, MW
Bates wins: Hopkins, MW, MIT
Carnegie: NCW, MW, Depauw
Wash U wins: Chicago, Skidmore
Skidmore: Trinity
Wash U did beat Skidmore who beat Trinity who beat Redlands
but
Redlands beat Bates who beat Hopkins who beat Wash U
Carnegie has better wins than Wash U
Bates has better wins than Wash U
With all of the teams in the 10-20 range so close this year it will very likely come down to who has the best wins. Close losses don’t have nearly the value of good wins.
I completely understand your logic behind those points and respect it. I viewed things a little differently and tried to go off the quality of the win over the quantity. Because of some results of these teams I felt restrained when ranking them in terms of how much wiggle room I had because as you said Skidmore beat Trinity who beat Redlands. I tried to keep the degree of separation to 1 here rather than going off teams who beat so and so and then went on to beat another. This is why I had both Redlands and Bates behind WashU but agree that Carnegie should be ahead because they don’t have a reason not to be. At the same time I think you make very valid points and I could definitely see it looking like:
15. Carnegie, 16. Redlands, 17. Bates, 18. WashU, 19. Skidmore
I think either the way I did it after the Carnegie correction or this way are entirely plausible scenarios. Who knows how they will come out but thanks for the feedback!
NCW over CNU 6-3
Whittier doesn’t really have much of a chance. They would have to take 2 of the 3 doubles for ANY chance what so ever. #1 would have to win along with #2. if they dont get those 4 matches. I dont see Whittier winning this match what so ever. Home or Away.
Whittier’s best chance is a Pomona-Midd dogfight that leaves Pomona’s guys physically wrecked and even then I think they face a very uphill task. Whittier is no doubt better but everywhere they are good, Pomona is better. I’m sure Whittier will come to battle but they have a tough task and need to probably sweep to pull it off. I’m going to go 7-2 P-P. They will either be riding a high from a Midd win or playing angry and use that as fuel like they have in a lot of their matches thus far.
Where has Larsen been for Santa Cruz this year?
Cal Lu vs. Williams on Wednesday. Ballou is back, and better than ever. I saw the last two matches he played. His opponents didn’t have a chance. If he brings that to the table on Wednesday, along with Worley being the solid and dominate #3 and #1 doubles with Ballou you can flat out count on 3-0 from that pair. I believe that #4 singles Treacy will win his match and Millet who is looking better and better as the season goes on has a good chance to win as well. Treacy is grinding his opponents down to the ground and cant handle his “make every ball” type of game. I am hoping for an upset at #2 or #3 doubles for Cal Lu. They are finally putting things together and are having very close matches regardless of what the actual final score is. They are playing well. I think Cal Lu has a very good chance at taking this match 5-4 or 6-3…..but the Kingsmen have got to show up on Wednesday to make that happen.
I think you are wayyyy too quick to give Cal Lu #1 doubles. I’m guessing you’re not too familiar with Williams’ lineup. Worley is a great #3, but Williams is also loaded with talent. That won’t be an easy win by any means
8-2 CLU at #1 Doubles……..talent does not automatically make you a force in doubles. We will see how the rest of this prediction turns out here in a little.
That’s a great win, but I didn’t pick Williams to win at #1 doubles because they are talented. I picked it because they had already beaten Cal Lu’s team. Obviously, I was wrong, but there’s nothing wrong with the reasoning. Anyone got any updates on this match?
Don’t have scores but CLU has first sets at 1 and 3. They have lost the first set at 3 of the other singles and I am not sure about the last singles match. Going to be tight as we thought.
yeah, Cal Lu is up 4-2 with wins by Ballou and Worley in straights. However, 2,4,5 are all down a set and down in the second. Gonna be a battle.
This is from Cal Lutheran’s Twitter.
I think the Williams Cruz match won’t be as one sided as predicted. Remember Cruz crushed them last year and while Williams is no doubt better, I don’t think Cruz will be doubting their chances at any spot against them. I’m picking the opposite actually with a 5-4 Cruz win only because its being played on the CMS courts or I would have gone 6-3 them.
Actually with Larsen back I feel even better about a 6-3 Cruz win. Being able to put Nerenberg at 3 doubles makes them an absolute force.
3-0 Williams over Cruz after dub’s
7-2 Williams.
Looks like that 6-3 prediction was pretty far off for Cruz to beat Williams. just like D3tennisguy said. Cruz had NO business winning it on paper, or on the courts.
4 three-setters in singles. It’s pretty hard to come back from a doubles sweep, but that’s pretty rude to say they don’t have any business winning on the courts.