Where We Stand: Team-By-Team

I think the easiest way to talk about the big picture is by going through each team and looking at their individual situations, so that is what I’m going to do. Although they are no longer accurate, I’m going to do this in the same order as the last ITA rankings. I’m going to discuss the top 27 teams as well as Washington & Lee and DePauw, because they are both important. I’ll obviously have more to say about some teams than others.

Amherst – Haven’t started season

Emory – It’s a shame for that the Eagles didn’t get a chance to play the match they wanted in California. For the time being, and with the match being canceled yesterday, they are an unchallenged #2 in the country. They clearly asserted their dominance at Indoors. They have the last really big match on their schedule this upcoming week when Hopkins comes to Atlanta. Hopkins obviously looked very tough in their win against NCW and at Stag-Hen, so this will be a serious test for Emory. I like the Eagles in a 6-3 win, and given what looks to be a very weak UAA (by its regular standards) this year, I see no way Emory doesn’t win this conference. If the Eagles beat Hopkins and win the UAA tournament, I see no way you can seed them lower than #2 overall in NCAAs, therefore avoiding a match with Herst until the final. The Eagles, despite their youth, have been fantastic this year and if they are firing in doubles, they will be very tough to beat, even for Amherst.

Williams – Haven’t started season

Johns Hopkins –  They won’t be ranked this high when the next rankings are released, but I would definitely say Hopkins has met the high expectations set for them this season. The NCW win was huge to get them on the right track, and they did a great job taking out a desperate Wash U team after a heartbreaking loss to CMS. At the moment, you probably have to call them the 3rd best singles team in the country after Herst and Emory. They took 6 from NCW and 4 from both Wash U and CMS, so they are obviously very dangerous. I think 1-8 in doubles in their last 3 matches speaks for itself, and if they don’t fix that, as I mentioned on Twitter, they won’t be in the Final 4 this year. It’s obviously difficult for freshmen to adjust to college doubles, but with all of their talent I would think they could improve on what they are doing at the moment. I circled the Emory match this week for Hopkins at the beginning of the season, so after seeing what they do there, I will re-evaluate. For now, this is obviously a top 10 team who should have a top seed in their region in NCAAs, but I’m not completely buying them as a threat to win it all at the moment.

NC Wesleyan – A great start to the season with a dominant win over Case and an upset of Kenyon, but a disappointing loss to Hopkins after sweeping the doubles. If in fact they have fixed their doubles issues, they will be a serious force in NCAAs. The next week will be their last true tests of the season, but it’s a brutal stretch. They have to take on Mary Wash on the road, as well as Chicago and Carnegie Mellon, both of whom are absolutely desperate for a win to get back in the Pool C picture. If NCW can come out of these matches 3-0, I think we’ll see them as a top seed in their region in NCAAs and depending on what happens, they could even find themselves in the Final 4. This is an excellent team and from the looks of it the best team they’ve ever had, but they’ve had some discipline issues in the past. The important thing for the Bishops is to remain focused over the next 7 days and they will thank themselves in about 2 months.

Kenyon – Up and down from the Lords so far this season. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance with wins against Wash U, Cruz and Bowdoin, but they’ve also shown vulnerability in losses to NC Wesleyan and Cal Lutheran, which was the one that really bothered me. Kenyon has met and maybe even surpassed expectations this year, and they’ve established themselves as a solid 5-8 team in the rankings. So far they have done what they needed to do even though the results haven’t been consistent and they have one more real test on their schedule when they go on the road to Carnegie. DePauw still waits in a potential conference tournament final and the Tigers will be very desperate in that match. Along with a lot of other teams this year, I would say Kenyon isn’t good enough where you can automatically give them a win against a top 30 team, but they are good enough to beat anyone on the right day. I expect a 2nd consecutive NCAA quarterfinal appearance from them and the Final 4 rides on their eventual draw in NCAAs.

Middlebury – Looked impressive in their opening matches, but haven’t truly started their season yet.

Whitman – Whitman just finished beating Whittier and Trinity (CT) in the same day, and coupled with wins over Cruz, UMW and Kzoo, they have put together a resume that will keep them in the top 10 for the rest of the season. I don’t see any way they don’t get a top seed in their region for NCAAs and I can see a scenario where they may fly to St. Louis again except this year they would be 1 and Wash U would be 2. I could also see them traveling to somewhere like Gustavus and having Trinity (TX) fly there as well. One thing is for sure and that is Whitman is very tough and they will successfully avoid the California region again. The Whitties will have a golden opportunity to make the Final 8 this year.

Cal Lutheran – They’ve been a mystery for most of the year, but at the same time they’ve done what they needed to do to put themselves in position to make the tournament. After the NESCAC teams that haven’t started their seasons but are projected to be top 8, I see Cal Lu as the #3 team in Pool C right now. They have an important match against Trinity (CT) that they have to win, but besides that it would take a massive meltdown for them to not make NCAAs. They have wins over their conference foes and will get a shot at CMS and Cruz in a few weeks. Most weren’t projecting them to be good this year, but they’ve significantly improved their depth and if they stay healthy they have an outside shot at being the representative from California in the Final 8.

Cruz – The Slugs loss to Whitman doesn’t look all that bad anymore, and since then they have been very solid. Cruz had a great Indoors with wins against 2 top 15 teams, and despite a loss to Kenyon, they won the most important match of their season against CMS. What Cruz needs to focus on in the next few weeks is “holding serve” so they get the NCAA regional on their home courts. This means beating Redlands and Cal Lutheran. They also have a match against Williams, but that match is fairly irrelevant for what they are trying to accomplish. Unless CMS turns it around in the next few weeks, it will be difficult to not call Cruz the favorite in the California regional. They beat the Stags comfortably the first time around and if they take care of business they will be sleeping in their own beds during NCAA regionals.

Wash U – A very surprising down year for the Bears. I thought that they may slip a little, but I didn’t see this nosedive coming. They really haven’t done anything this year since they don’t have a win over a top 20 team on their resume. Wash U is probably hovering between 12 and 15 in the rankings at the moment, and if they slip when they play Case and Chicago, it is very possible that they will miss NCAAs. We were talking a few weeks ago about them getting to their 5th straight Final 4, but the pieces are not falling into place for the Bears at the moment. I expected them to take out Bowdoin in Stag-Hen and they failed to do so, so now they need to get wins over Case and Chicago and follow it up by getting 2nd at UAAs. That may or may not be enough to get a top seed in their region, but it definitely should be enough to make the tournament, which has to be their main concern at the moment given how things have gone.

Trinity (TX) – As always, Trinity has put themselves in a good spot and they are pretty much done with tough D3 play until their conference tournament. The Tigers will sit around 11 or 12 and this season is extremely similar to the last 2 years. I would suspect they will be the 2 seed in a region, maybe matching up against Whitman, Kenyon or possibly NC Wesleyan. Whatever the case may be, the Tigers will have an excellent chance to make their 3rd consecutive Final 8. This is a complete team that is dangerous against anyone, although they have definitely shown signs of weakness in losses to CLU and Skidmore.  I have yet to hear any news about their #2 player Jacob Straus, and he will be an integral part of their success during the tournament given his outstanding junior career. TU needs to focus on getting better over the next 6 weeks and hoping for another winnable NCAA region, which I think they will get.

Pomona-Pitzer – I think it has become clear that PP played over their heads last year. They should technically be better than they were last year, but instead they have reversed course and moved back into double digits. What they don’t have this year is that signature win. All of their wins are against teams that I consider inferior to them, but at the same time their losses have come against teams they could easily be beating. The Hens have to battle for an NCAA bid this year and their plethora of matches against ranked teams has to help their cause. These guys fight very hard, but they haven’t been as clutch as they were last season. If they want to compete against the top teams in California, they have to go back to the drawing board. They have some good chances remaining this season, but I see one must win match on their schedule and that’s Redlands. I’d be confident in saying the loser of that match will not make the tournament.

Bowdoin – Even though they probably end tomorrow with a 2-4 record in D3 play, Bowdoin has put themselves in an excellent spot to make NCAAs during their first few matches. They have played a very difficult schedule, but more importantly they picked up 2 wins against Pool C competitors and I would expect them to sit somewhere between 11-13 when the next rankings are released. Barring any unforeseen losses *cough* Trinity (CT) *cough*, they are in an excellent spot at the moment. I think this is a very good team, and on the right day they could take out a Middlebury or Williams. They showed a lot of fight in the match against CMS, nearly coming back to win after being swept in doubles. This looks to be Bowdoin’s strongest team in quite a few years as first year coach Conor Smith is doing an excellent job.

Redlands – At the moment, when it comes to NCAAs, Redlands is on the outside looking in. They had some good chances, but lost key matches to Trinity (TX) and Cal Lutheran. They will have chances for redemption against Williams and Cruz, but the match that is an absolute must win will be against Pomona-Pitzer. I think Redlands has the team to finis 2nd in the SCIAC this year and they have shown flashes of brilliance, but they are currently in a spot where they need to make something happen or they will miss their 3rd consecutive NCAA tournament. There is no way the SCIAC gets 3 Pool C spots, so this means Redlands must use their opportunities and pull an upset.

Mary Washington – Mary Wash actually started their season very well, but have fallen off a cliff since their win against Cal Lutheran. At the moment, one good hour of tennis is keeping UMW in the top 25, and I’m not sure how much of that was actually UMW being good versus CLU being awful. They’ve dropped 4 matches in a row and have a key weekend coming up where they host 3 beatable teams. On paper, as always, this should be a good team, and if I were them I would focus on winning the conference and getting their rankings as high as possible so they could potentially get a 2 seed in their NCAA region and make their 2nd consecutive Sweet 16. As of now, I see no way they pull an upset in NCAAs to make it back to their first Elite 8 since 2008.

Whittier – Maybe I’m missing something, but I just don’t see why people think so highly of this team. Yes they beat Swarthmore, but they lost 8-1 to Whitman yesterday. I don’t see them as a legitimate top 25 team this year. Maybe they will prove me wrong ans knock off PP, CLU or Redlands, but until then I don’t buy them as a Pool C contender or a team that should be talked about in the same breath as the other top 20 teams.

CMS – We don’t need to discuss their rocky start anymore, but rather we can focus on their outstanding resilience in the Stag-Hen. After sweeping doubles, they were pushed to the limit by both Hopkins and Bowdoin, and came away victorious in both. In the next week, they’ve got matches against the top 3 NESCAC teams, which will prepare them for their important conference matches in April. I’m still convinced they can lose to anyone in the top 20 on any given day, and I will continue to believe that until they address the issues with the bottom of their singles lineup. At the same time, I also think they are a legitimate threat to win the national title if they get hot at the right time. At the moment, they are step behind Amherst and Emory, but that’s ground they can make up in the next 2 months. I doubt they would have beaten Emory in the SH final, but maybe its best the match wasn’t played for the purposes of CMS confidence. They ended the tournament on a high note and go into these NESCAC matches with nothing to lose.

Trinity (CT) – They missed a golden opportunity to get a leg up in Pool C by losing to a tired Whitman team yesterday, but a win over Kalamazoo today was a start. They have another chance tomorrow against Cal Lutheran, and a win over the Kingsmen could throw Pool C into disarray. Their last really good chance will be against their main rival Bowdoin. I don’t see any other matches on their schedule that I consider winnable and would help their Pool C resume.

Swarthmore – One of my least favorite things to do is call wins lucky or a fluke, but that’s the case with Swarthmore and everyone knows it. They have done nothing to back up their win over CMS and have lost to every other ranked team they’ve played. They are in Hopkins conference so they would need a Pool C bid to make the tournament, and I don’t see that happening. They most likely remain in the top 25 for the rest of the season because of their CMS win, but I don’t know if its necessarily well deserved. I will never be able to figure out how that result actually happened. This is not a bad team, don’t get me wrong, but they are probably in the 30-40 range in reality.

Carnegie Mellon – The pre-season perception that they lacked talent may end up being very accurate. They had chances to win both big matches in California, but they failed to do so and their backs are against the wall. They are down, but not out, in Pool C, especially when you consider their upcoming schedule. They have UMW, W&L, Kenyon and NCW over the next 2 weekends, and I’ll say if they can go 3 for 4 in that stretch, they are back in the Pool C mix. Couple that with a wide open UAA tournament with Wash U being weak, and I could see CMU potentially making the tournament if they pick it up significantly in the 2nd half of their season. Beating DePauw like they did is no easy feat, so the ability is there, they just have to figure out a way to pull an upset. In reality I don’t think this is a tournament team and they belong in the 17-20 range, but a couple big efforts could change my mind.

Skidmore – Something that no one has noted yet, and I’m surprised about it, is that Skidmore was missing their #2 player from the Trinity TX match, Jimmy Sherpa, in their following 3 losses. I doubt he could have turned any of those losses to wins, but the point is they are a much better team with him, probably a top 20 and potentially top 15 quality team. The bad news for Skidmore is their NCAA fate is probably already decided. I don’t see them knocking off any of the top 3 NESCAC teams, and therefore they most likely end up as the #2 seed in the NCAA region of Amherst or Williams. Skidmore probably wins their conference and they have a shot at finishing in the top 20, but it’s a shame that Trinity TX win won’t carry them further because it was a flat out impressive performance. I feel like this is a team on the verge of becoming a true national power every year but they aren’t quity there yet.

Case Western – Case got themselves into the Pool C conversation with an early season win over DePauw. This team thinks very highly of themselves and they went into last weekend in Virginia as a very confident bunch. The win over Mary Washington was huge and the loss to Washington & Lee was equally as big. If somehow Case would have gone 2-0, they could have argued they belonged in the top 15 and could have potentially been sitting 6th in Pool C right now. But the fact remains they lost to a W&L team that was missing their #2 player and the full strength W&L team lost to Redlands, a team Case needs to beat out to make the tournament. Despite the W&L loss, Case still controls their own destiny. If they can beat Wash U and Chicago in a couple weekends, we could see them enter UAAs as the 2 or 3 seed, and those are huge spots because you can avoid Emory in the semis. Similar to Carnegie, Case has their backs against the wall but they still have chances.

Gustavus – If I could think of any team outside the top 10 who I wouldn’t want to play in NCAAs, it’s definitely Gustavus. The Gusties have been rock solid thus far, but their true test will be the California trip when we get to see what they do away from home. With Whitman’s rise this year, I can see an NCAA scenario where Whitman, Gustavus, Trinity TX and Whitewater get thrown into a region, and I wouldn’t hesitate to pick Gustavus to come out of that region if they host it. As crazy as this sounds, I think this team is good enough on their home courts to potentially win an NCAA regional and make the Elite 8. I would be petrified to have to travel there. I’ll save judgment on how good this team actually is until after their California trip, but if the NCAA Gods give them a favorable region, watch out.

Kalamazoo – Kzoo, as usual, has been up and down this year. By far their most impressive performance of the season was an 8-1 win against a tough Whitewater team. The other personality of the Hornets lost to Trinity (CT) yesterday and the Bantams proceeded to get destroyed by Cal Lutheran today, struggling to even win games. Kalamazoo also managed to lose to Mary Washington 8-1. This is a less extreme case of Gustavus Syndrome, where they are really tough at home and can’t play anywhere else. Kalamazoo is always a threat to pull an upset in the tournament, but I see them as a 25-30 team and don’t think they could threaten any potential regional top seeds.

Whitewater – These guys are also a mystery, but one thing we know is they have the luxury of qualifying for NCAAs through the Independent Pool B, so they don’t have a whole lot to worry about. Knowing this, they are a very dangerous floater in the tournament because I think they have the potential to play some great doubles and they have strong enough players at the top of their lineup to give highly ranked teams trouble. This is another team to watch out for in the NCAA tournament, as they may come in under the radar as a #3 seed in a Midwest region just like last year and pull an upset. The talent is obviously there as shown by their win over Chicago, and I’m anxious to see what they do against DePauw next week in Hilton Head. They will also have a good test against Gustavus in mid-April.

Chicago – If I’m not mistaken we were in a similar spot with Chicago last year, maybe the circumstances weren’t quite as bad, but the Maroons came out of nowhere, beat Wash U who was ranked in the top 5 at the time, and ended up with a top seed in their NCAA regional. While I don’t see that happening again this year, don’t count out a team as talented as Chicago, ever. They took 2 of 3 doubles from NCW yesterday and played the Bishops tough in a 6-3 loss. They have a weekend with Case and Wash U coming up, and if they want to have any chance at making the tournament, they absolutely need to go undefeated. It’s not that much of a stretch, because they already were points away from beating Wash U at Indoors. Chicago’s season is a perfect example of how little margin of error you have when competing for a Pool C bid. They’ve fallen quickly and are down to their last breath, but somehow they’re still alive.

DePauw – The only reason I include DePauw in this is because they are the most likely Pool C spoiler. By this, I mean if they beat Kenyon in their conference tournament final, the Lords will take one of the Pool C spots because DePauw would get the automatic bid from their conference. There is no way DePauw is the 30th best team in the country, especially when you take into account a nearly identical DPU team finished 16th in the country last year. It’s tough having your biggest matches in the first couple weeks of the season, but the Tigers didn’t take advantage of their opportunities. Kenyon is very good, but DePauw definitely has enough talent to beat them. I may be counting out Denison too soon in this conversation as well, but one thing I know is that Kenyon will not have an easy time winning the NCAC this year.

Washington & Lee – This is hands down the most underrated team in the country. The Generals have five excellent players who can match up with anyone in the country. They showed this in a near upset of Redlands and wins against Case Western and Mary Washington this past weekend. I assume they will move into the top 25 and the last test on their schedule will be an away match against Carnegie. They should win their conference with relative ease, and I would assume they will be grouped with Emory, Hopkins or NCW for NCAAs. These are 3 teams who they could potentially give significant trouble, so pay attention to W&L in the postseason this year and they are definitely a team to watch next year.

As a wrap-up, I won’t publish a full NCAA prediction, but I’ll take a guess at the top seeds in order and Pool C. This is obviously subject to change as some NESCACs have yet to start their season and there is a lot of tennis left to be played.

1. Amherst

2. Emory

3. Williams

4. Kenyon

5. California (Cruz, CMS, CLU, PP, Redlands, etc.)

6. Middlebury

7. Hopkins

8. Whitman

Had no idea until I started doing this that NCW didn’t get one of these spots. Maybe they need to beat out Hopkins to make Final 8. Wow.

Pool C – 1. Williams 2. Middlebury 3. Cal Lutheran 4. Bowdoin 5. Pomona-Pitzer 6. Wash U 7. Redlands 8. Case 9. Whittier 10. Carnegie 11. Swarthmore 12. Trinity (CT) 13. Chicago