To Everybody,
I’m going to do a Stag-Hen preview tomorrow, but I want to make sure I have the match-ups right. I believe the seedings were set before all of this craziness happened, but I want to make sure I have all the right teams in the right places before I do a preview for no reason. I’m pretty confident, but here’s what I got for the matchups:
#1 Emory vs. #8 Skidmore
#2 Wash U vs. #7 Bowdoin
#3 CMS vs. #6 Johns Hopkins
#4 Kenyon vs. #5 Pomona-Pitzer
P.S. Rankings come out tomorrow… I shouldn’t even try, but here’s my best guess
1. Amherst
2. Emory
3. Williams
4. Middlebury
5. Whitman
6. Johns Hopkins
7. NCW
8. Kenyon
9. Cruz
10. Wash U
11. Cal Lu
12. Skidmore (I know it’s just one win, but they don’t have losses)
13. Trinity (TX)
14. Pomona-Pitzer
15. Redlands
16. Bowdoin
17. Mary Washington
18. Case Western
19. Carnegie Mellon
20. Trinity (CT)
21. Whittier
22. Swarthmore
23. CMS
24. GAC
25. Chicago
26. Kalamazoo
27. Whitewater
28. MIT
29. Bates
30. Tufts
30. Depauw
That 1-10 region is a little murky. JHU could go at 4, but I don’t think wins over NCW and W&L are better than Cruz, MWU, and Zoo. Other than that, I think it’s pretty reasonable.
After that, you get into the real cluster**** zone. Is Skidmore the 12th best team in the country? Probably not, but they don’t have any losses that justify keeping them behind Trinity, and you pretty much have to have Trinity ahead of P-P and Redlands. Then there’s Mary Washington. They have one great win, and they could probably be placed ahead of Bowdoin, but Bowdoin has already moved down two places without having lost to anyone ranked below them. Case moves ahead of CMU for lack of losses. Trinity (CT) moves down without playing.
Then, there’s the Swarthmore, Whittier, CMS thing. You’ll notice that the #23 ranking is a little low for CMS, but it’s hard to justify putting them higher. Neither of these teams have wins over anyone in the top 20. You could drop them in above Case/CMU/Trinity(CT), though.
After that, the rankings are the same as before except shifted down to make room for Skidmore, Whittier, and Swarthmore. I dropped Rhodes, Tyler, Oxy, and Denison out because none of them have done anything.
Don’t worry, bias like that expressed above will protect some teams from falling as far as they should and prevent others from rising as high as they should. The rankings appear to based on reputation as much as actual performance.
They beat Santa Cruz and Mary Wash. Have no bad losses and indirects over Trinity-TX, Wash U., Cal Lu, CMS, etc. What’s not to understand? With so few results and so many weird ones, the rankings are going to look strange for a while.
I can’t understand Whitman’s top 10, let alone top 5 ranking
Can’t argue with CMS at #23. That is sure to bring a smile to your partner’s face (D3Tennis), who used to gag every time he gave even a back-handed compliment to the Stags. Win or lose, I say let’s not talk about the Stags for the rest of the season. By your measure, only SCIAC powerhouses Occidental and Cal Tech are now ranked below them in conference. Cal Tech plays its matches in lab coats, so their position is understandable, but you may as well have put Oxy above CMS too. I suggest, therefore, that there is nothing newsworthy about the Stag’s quest for their 7th consecutive outright SCIAC title or their ongoing 58 consecutive SCIAC match win streak. Instead of meaningless speculation about what is going on in Stagsville, let them win and lose in solitude while they recover. Maybe, check back in after the West Regionals.
I don’t think anyone is disputing where CMS actually is versus where they have to be for rankings purposes. Everyone knows how good they are. That being said, this start certainly puts some chinks in their armor and makes that SCIAC win streak and consecutive title streak you were so quick to brag about certainly in jeopardy. Cal Lu is much improved and Redlands and Pomona are also just as dangerous. They are still the unquestioned favorites but they certainly look more human than ever before.
Before responding, I do want to say you are doing a great job with this website – a lot of work well done.
I agree with all of your observations noted above. In fact, it is not beyond the realm of possibility that things could get worse for the Stags this weekend. But, I wasn’t really bragging on the SCIAC win streaks per se; I was just alluding to the fact that spring-time is a time of renewal and return to health, and come mid-April to early May, let’s see what happens to the Stags in SCIAC play.
Those are indeed the matchups for Stag-Hen, should be a lot of fun.
I think you did a good job with the rankings, thats pretty much how I see them as well. Skidmore will be there for at least this ranking period, if they end up playing Pomona and or Bowdoin for whatever reason in the tournament and don’t back it up then they would move down but the win over Trin Tx is impossible to ignore resulting in a short-term catapult.