Weekly Preview: March 12-16

There are a number of matches with huge Pool C implications happening this week before the Stag-Hen gets under way. Here are my predictions with a little bit of rationale. Please take them with a grain of salt.

Monday

#14 Bowdoin vs. #16 Carnegie Mellon

The Polar Bears put their Pool C spot on the line in their first match of the season. I think the fact that it’s the first match of the season will come back to haunt them.They also don’t have the luxury of a near-automatic victory at #1 singles this year. CMU has already played a very significant match against Depauw, so they will probably be more ready to play at a high level right away. I’ll take the Tartans in a comfortable 6-3 victory.

Vassar vs. Whittier

Neither team is ranked, so I’m not sure why I’m writing about this, but Whittier will be ranked soon… unless they lose this. I don’t think they will, but this is a definite trap match. These teams have the same strengths and weaknesses, so if the Guzicks can pick up three points, Vassar could find another two in the other 6 positions. I think Whittier will find a way to get a win against a Guzick and ride that to a 5-4 win.

#11 Trinity (TX) vs. #30 Skidmore

The Thoroughbreds are probably better than their ranking indicates, but I don’ t think they are good enough to beat the Tigers. Trinity can sometimes lay an egg if they don’t have the right energy, but I think they will pull from some of their disappointing experiences from last year and win this one comfortably. 7-2 Tigers.

Tuesday

#11 Trinity (TX) vs. #14 Bowdoin

This match is another opportunity for Bowdoin to gain Pool C positioning, but Trinity beat them last year, and I think they’ll do it again. Bowdoin probably good weaker, and Trinity looks at least as strong, if not stronger. This is a total guess because Bowdoin hasn’t played yet, but I think Trinity beats them 6-3.

#30 UT-Tyler vs. #15 Redlands

Tyler actually played Whittier tougher than I thought they would, which indicates to me that their freshman class is strong. That doesn’t mean they’re about to beat the Bulldogs on their home courts. 8-1 Redlands.

#16 Carnegie Mellon vs. #12 Pomona-Pitzer

The Hens are absolutely reeling right now, and they desperately need a victory. I think CMU could be a perfect opportunity for them to pick up what could end up being a signature victory come selection Sunday. CMU could be tired from their match with Bowdoin, and they still won’t be quite used to the heat. Pomona will be playing on their home courts, and they should come out firing in doubles. I like their chances to take two out of three (at least) doubles matches and find enough wins in singles to pull of what I would consider an upset right now. CMU needs this match almost as much as Pomona does, but if they beat Bowdoin on Monday, they won’t be as desperate as the Hens, and that could make the difference. 5-4 P-P.

Wednesday

#10 Wash U vs. #30 Skidmore

The Bears should be eager to hit the courts after their disappointing Indoors performance. They won’t let this one be close. 8-1 Wash U.

#6 Kenyon vs. #14 Bowdoin

I don’t think it could be any more obvious that I have no confidence in Bowdoin. The only hope they have rests in the possibility that the Lords will be tired, but even that is a slim hope, as they played extremely well after driving all the way up to Cruz. If Bowdoin can take advantage of Kenyon’s shaky doubles, it could be trouble, but I still think the Lords will win 5 singles matches. 6-3 Kenyon.

#2 Emory vs. #20 Cal Lutheran

Make no mistake, Cal Lu is way better than their ranking. They’ve already beaten Trinity, Kenyon, and Pomona, but that doesn’t mean they’re ready to beat Emory. If Gustavus can push them that hard, though, Cal Lu definitely has a chance. Emory, however, gained steam as Indoors went on, and I think their slow start can be attributed to the conditions. They will be used to hot weather, though, and the Eagles beat Kenyon much more comfortably than the Kingsmen did. That’s why I’m going to pick them to win this match 6-3.

Thursday

#30 Texas-Tyler vs. #20 Cal Lu

No way this upset is happening. 7-2 Cal Lu.

Friday

#17 Case Western vs. #19 Mary Washington

Which Mary Washington will show up? The one that beat Cal Lu and dominated Kalamazoo, or the one that got scorched by P-P and Redlands. Which Case Western will show up? The one that got rolled by Kenyon and NCW or the one that beat Depauw soundly. This prediction is more of a guess than any other match, and I have been wrong about a lot of matches that I’ve felt more confident about, but I’m gonna go with Mary Washington on their home courts. 5-4.

#15  Redlands vs. #20 Cal Lutheran

These two teams appear to be very evenly matched. Cal Lu beat Trinity who beat Redlands. Redlands beat Mary Washington who beat Cal Lu. The only difference is that Cal Lu’s wins have been much better than Redlands’. Also, the Bulldogs haven’t had to play a significant D3 match away from their home courts this year. I think Redlands takes 2 out of 3 doubles, but ends up losing another 5-4 thriller. Cal Lu has played so many of those. Why stop now?