National Indoors Predictions: Day Three

I’m ready to go to bed. Cruz stunned everyone by beating Wash U. I think we can officially set aside the doomsday predictions for Slug tennis for at least two more years. Coach Parmelly did a great job pulling his guys together after a disappointing upset. The only danger for them heading into the final is that they might feel satisfied with their two victories, come out listless against Emory and get rolled. I’m feeling good about Cruz. They’ve won Indoors every even year for the past four years.

If that’s going to happen this year, it’s going to take a monumental effort. After looking subpar yesterday, the Eagles really picked it up today in a comprehensive victory over Kenyon. The Lords avoided getting blanked by picking off a 10-pointer, but Emory won four singles matches pretty routinely, and after the doubles, the result was never really in doubt.

#2 Emory vs. #6 UC Santa Cruz

I’m trying to figure out how Cruz can win five matches against Emory and I just don’t see it. The Slugs came out firing on all cylinders in doubles today, including their #2 team, which had looked horrible. If they want any chance of winning this match, they probably need another doubles sweep. Emory will know this, and I don’t think they let it happen. In singles, Pottish is the clear favorite at #1. If Cruz is favored at any singles position, it has to be #2 with Koenig. Halabi played a grueling match today, and I don’t think he will have enough gas left to grind out a victory tomorrow. Rosner has looked great, but Halpern has probably looked a little better, so I think he’s favored to win that one. Bettwy could beat Lavoie-Perusse, who could be drained after back-to-back three-setters. Ruderman has to be favored over Rogers after his win over Griffin today. Griffin is one of the best 6’s in the country, and Ruderman managed to beat him pretty soundly. Overall, I think Santa Cruz digs deep to win a couple matches, but Emory is just better, even without Goodwin in the singles lineup. I’m going to take Emory for a “never-in-doubt” 6-3 victory.

#3 Wash U vs. #7 Kenyon

Wash U hasn’t been playing up to their ranking so far this tournament, especially in doubles. Sure, they fought their way past a talented Chicago team, but the #3 team in the country should never have been in that position in the first place. Their questionable doubles play came back to haunt them against Cruz. They lost the match despite winning 4 of the singles matches. Who knows what would have happened in full third sets if the match had been on the line, but they were definitely favored. If they want to win tomorrow morning, they absolutely have to avoid the doubles sweep.

Fortunately for Wash U, Kenyon hasn’t been playing very good doubles in the past couple weeks. After narrowly losing 2 out of 3 against NCW last week, they narrowly avoided a sweep against Pomona and got swept by Emory. They need to do much better tomorrow morning because I think Wash U is pretty clearly favored at most of the singles positions.

Adam Putterman is playing like an absolute man at #1 singles, and he has to be favored over Burgin. Ross, on the other hand, has struggled, so I would say Razumovsky is favored at 2 for Kenyon. Parizher, Farah, and especially Haywood are all favored over Williams, Heerboth, and Rosensteel, respectively. And 6 singles is probably a coin flip. Doubles is unpredictable, but I don’t think there will be a sweep either way. I’m going to predict that Kenyon will play with a lot of heart and take two doubles matches, but Wash U will eventually win four of six singles matches for the 5-4 victory. I really want to pick Kenyon in this one, and I would have if they had looked better against Emory, but they really got beaten pretty badly. I don’t think they’re a top 5 team this year.