Indoors weekend is typically the kickoff to the season but this year so much has happened already that I feel as if we’ve already gone into the heart of the season. Indoors is always a great event and I’m so glad that Gustavus has decided to host once again. That said, Gustavus is in way over their heads this weekend as they were a couple years ago when they ended up finishing 8th at their own tournament.
Emory is even a more heavy favorite this year than they were last year and I don’t see any scenario where they end up losing this weekend. Chris Goodwin actually hasn’t been in the lineup for Emory’s first few matches, but I don’t even think they need him to win this tournament. That’s how much better they are than everyone else here. Unless I’m vastly overestimating Emory’s freshmen, they win with ease this weekend. However, 7 other teams are competing so let’s discuss some potential outcomes.
I think Emory wipes the floor with Gustavus 9-0. The Gusties may be able to steal a doubles match with some excellent fan support but I’d be surprised if they take a set in singles. Not much to discuss about this match, Emory moves on to the semis. I think Kenyon and Pomona-Pitzer is the most interesting match of the first round and potentially could be the best match of the weekend. These teams have extremely similar make-ups with a sneaky good #1 singles player and strong doubles. Kenyon is probably stronger at the 1-4 spots and used to indoor tennis so I like them to win this match. I’d be surprised if either team sweeps the doubles, but whoever takes that 2-1 lead may be well on their way to a win. Kenyon was down 4-2 against P-P on the road last year and came back to win 5-4, and I like this year’s Kenyon team better than last year’s team. The one thing that worries me about Kenyon is depth and that got them in trouble against NC Wesleyan. I mentioned a few weeks ago that a loss against NCW could hurt the Lords heading into Indoors, so we will see how they respond because their confidence could certainly be shaken. Filling out the next matches in the top half, both of them are no-brainers. Emory beats Kenyon, I’ll say 7-2, and P-P beats Gustavus 8-1 or 9-0. I think the loser of the Kenyon-PP match definitely goes on to finish 5th barring a miraculous upset by Chicago over Wash U in the first round. One could make the argument that Kenyon and PP are the 2nd and 3rd best teams in the tournament, so I’m interested to see how the winner does against Emory. If I was forced to pick someone who I think could beat Emory, it’s probably P-P. They match up well with the Eagles and last year’s 6-3 loss against Emory after the emotional win against Trinity (TX) shows that the Hens are not intimidated by the often intimidating Eagles.
Moving to the bottom half, I just hate Chicago. I want them to finish 8th. Wash U should clean up fairly easily and you bet the Bears will remember last year’s loss against the Maroons, which is certainly the worst loss for Wash U in the last 5-6 years. Chicago doesn’t have their head on straight at the moment and I can see them slipping out of the top 16 teams in the country and missing an NCAA bid. While they shouldn’t lose to Gustavus in a potential 7th-8th match, I could see them tanking at 8pm on a Saturday night against a fired up Gusties team. Chicago has to hope for Cruz to lose in a dogfight to Trinity and be distraught in a potential backdraw semifinal. I can’t imagine any of the teams in the bottom half beating Wash U, because despite losing their top 2, Wash U is deep and will play good doubles. That’s enough to beat Cruz, Trinity and Chicago, none of whom I consider top 10 teams this year. The Indoors field the past two years has actually been fairly weak, as you had 3 teams competing last year who ended up finish outside the top 15. If Cruz continues to slip, which is doubtful, we could have a similar scenario this year. For the last couple weeks I liked Cruz to beat Trinity even after the Whitman loss, but I had a change of heart this week after I realized I’m worried about Cruz getting swept in doubles. Trinity has new faces on their team and I like the intangibles going in their favor despite them being the underdog on paper. Whitman was the underdog against Cruz on paper also and they ended up almost losing 8-1, so on paper doesn’t really matter with this year’s Cruz team. If Parmelly can pull some magic and pump his guys up to beat Trinity, that would be a huge step for the program. As I said a few weeks ago, this match is massive for Cruz, and it’s even bigger after the Whitman loss. Cruz’s spirits are crushed if they lose this and a team with Trinity’s fire is not who you want to be playing when your confidence is wavering. Cruz should manage to beat Chicago but will lose the 5th-6th match against the Kenyon-PP loser. I think Wash U beats Trinity fairly easily, most likely 7-2 or 6-3.
Wash U unfortunately looks well on their way to losing their 4th Indoors final in a row as I don’t see how they beat Emory. Their doubles isn’t good enough this year that they can sweep and Emory is too good again at the top in singles. Wash U had chances for a doubles sweep in last year’s Indoors final, but I would expect a result this year that’s closer to the result when these two played in the NCAA semis. I’ll take Kenyon over Trinity 6-3 in the 3rd place match as they are just stronger everywhere. Burgin has to be the most underrated player in the country right now. I can’t think of anyone else with the exception of Andrew Peters who went from being a decent bottom of the lineup player to a very good #1 as quickly as Burgin has.
As far as other thoughts on the season so far, I don’t think we know a whole lot with the surprising results that have come in. NCW looks like a top 10 team, but I’m not buying them as a Final 4 contender until they get their doubles in order. Yes, they beat Kenyon 2 of 3, but let’s see some consistency before we talk about them in the same breath as Wash U and Williams. I see both NCW and Kenyon as teams in the 7-10 range this year because I don’t think their quite ready to compete with Wash U, Middlebury and Williams, who I see as the 4-6 teams this year in no particular order.
This weekend will determine how Cruz will do the rest of the season. The Whitman loss is unacceptable for that program, but they can rebound with a good showing this weekend, even if they end up finish 4th. I’m worried that their guys will just stop believing after all that has happened with the program and with the depth in D3 now, that could be slipping out of the top 15. Congratulations to Whitman on their wins, as they now get to sit back and watch everyone else battle it out. They are only tested by a top 20 caliber team once more this season when they play Trinity (CT) on the road, so Whitman may very well spend the rest of the season in the top 15. They have to be pulling for Cruz and I’d actually be interested to see where Whitman ends up in the rankings if Cruz bombs this weekend.
Mary Wash has their best team since the ’09 season and I think they can crack the top 20. Whitewater is incredibly dangerous and could be a top 15 team. They should take care of an improved Kalamazoo team this weekend on the road, but will have to be careful when they play DePauw in Hilton Head in a few weeks. I’m disappointed in DePauw’s loss to Case and maybe I overestimated them and I’m not sure they are going to beat Carnegie. CMU is typically known as the talented underachievers, but people aren’t buying this year’s team and I wonder if they will take advantage of that underdog role and put a top 12 quality season together. Case is going to be a tough out against anyone and they should make a run in Pool C. I think the NCAA picture will get very interesting the next few weeks with Bowdoin, Case, Redlands, Chicago, CMU and DePauw all competing for what I think will be 2 spots.