Through the Eyes of D3West: Abridged version

Like D3ASouth, I’m going to keep this short. I don’t know much about the non-regional teams, and I’m not going to waste my time making up predictions for players I don’t know. Unlike D3ASouth, I am going to complain about the bracket because it feels good.

Region 1

Just so you know. This region is going to take up about half of this post’s text. Someone pointed out that it’s been a while since a West region team has won a national championship in a while. I would argue that one of the chief reasons for this is that all the best West region teams have to play each other. For the past several years, the two best teams in the West region have been CMS and Santa Cruz. Imagine if Wash U and Kenyon had to play each other just to get to the Elite Eight every year, what about Williams and Amherst? Emory and Hopkins? Yeah, they would have a harder time winning a national championship too. It’s a miracle the West region has won as many national championships as they have. (Thanks, Cruz).

Anyways, this is one beast of a region. Let’s just do short break downs by match.

Redlands vs. UT-Dallas: The Comets are the huge underdogs here, and I think their NCAA experience will be cut short pretty quickly. Their strongest positions are #3 an d #4 singles. Coincidentally, Hyde and Hunt have been two of Redlands’ most consistent winners. The Dawgs win at least one of those matches to neutralize that strength. The Comets are also strong at #1 and #2 doubles, but the Bulldogs have shown flashes of brilliance at both of those positions, as well. I think Redlands will take #1 and #3 doubles for a 2-1 lead heading into doubles. The best chance for a miracle upset starts with wins at #1 and #2 doubles. After that, Lipscomb should quickly put Redlands up 3-1, while Brewer and Hunt provide the 4th and 5th points for a 5-1 or 5-2 win.

Cal Lu vs. UC Santa Cruz: Let me get this straight, D3ASouth just pointed out that Cruz has been overlooked and proceeded to pick against them because Cal Lu has a pair of seniors at #1 and #2 singles. Let’s see if I can think of another team with a couple seniors at #1 and #2 singles? Oh wait, you’re looking at them right here. Koenig hasn’t had a great year, but he’s a proud player and a hard out. He’s due for a big win in either singles or doubles, and he basically has the match in his hands. If he can win either match over Ballou, the Slugs will win, hands down. Even if he doesn’t, there’s a chance the Slugs come away with the victory without him: Cal Lu has another thing coming if they’re expecting the same doubles lineup as last time. Halabi and Rodgers are clearly inferior to Halabi and Goetz, and Goetz didn’t give much a boost to #1 doubles. I would expect them to go back to something like before. Anyways, that makes it really hard to predict, but I think Cruz will lead 2-1 after doubles with wins at #2 and #3. Cruz needs Littlejohn to build on his momentum from Ojai and provide a win in this one, but Ballou and Worley will be too tough at #1 no matter who they play.

With a 2-1 lead, UCSC will get wins from Rodgers at #4 and whoever they play at #6 (probably Rosner), but I’m not sure where they can get that 5th point. Nichols has his swagger back, and I think he’ll take #3 singles, and UCSC hasn’t been able to win at #5 all season. Look for Littlejohn to jump in the 5 spot and give them a boost. That takes things down to #1 and #2 singles where a quartet of seniors will be squaring off. Last time, Halabi absolutely slammed Worley, but it won’t be that easy this time around. Nevertheless, I think that’s a poor matchup for Worley and Halabi will come away with the win to give Cruz a 5-4 victory. I concede that Ballou will probably win pretty quickly at #1 singles.

Cruz vs. CMS: This could be the final installation of perhaps the greatest rivalry in DIII tennis (Wash U and Emory have a damn good one going, so I won’t make any blanket statements). Unlike everyone else, I actually think the Slugs can make this one close. The last two regional finals have been very close, but the Stags were able to shake a huge monkey of their back in Santa Cruz a few years ago, and they were able to repeat the feat last year. Unfortunately, CMS matches up with the Slugs very well (they are superior anyways, but match-ups aren’t good either). CMS has a huge edge at #1 doubles, and their beasts Lane/Marino neutralize Halabi/Goetz if they’re together at #3. Cruz hasn’t done much at #2 doubles this year, so I’m not sure where Cruz gets its point, but I think they’ll get one on raw emotion. 2-1 lead for CMS heading into singles.

The senior Johnson is pretty much a lock for CMS as #6. The rest of the matches will be close. Koenig is due, and I think this is the match he finally comes through at #1 singles. Halabi got crushed by Dorn last time, but the transfer’s confidence has to be low right now, so I think the Ice Man will take that one. With the match tied at 3-3, CMS’ depth will take over. I think Lane will avenge himself at #4 and Butts will continue to occupy Clutch City to give CMS their 4th and 5th points and a 5-3 victory.

Region 2

That’s pretty much it from me. The rest of this is gonna be quite short…

This region obviously comes down to Kenyon vs. Case. These two teams have already played on this very court, with Kenyon narrowly avoiding a doubles sweep and eventually winning three 3-setters in a 6-3 victory. Last year, much was made of Kenyon’s doubles struggles, but you know what? Their doubles came together at the end of the season, and they were one point away from sweeping Emory in the National Championship match.

Now, do we say that their doubles coming together was a fluke (as is often said of the Wash U Bears when they beat Amherst last year), or do we try to make a pattern out of it? Personally, I’m going to give Kenyon the benefit of the doubt in this match, but if they don’t get things going, they will go out in the Elite Eight. With Raz and Williams reunited at #2 doubles, the Lords will take a 2-1 lead in doubles and cruise to a 5-2 win here. Together Williams and Raz will get Kenyon two more points in singles: Williams has gone through too much as a senior to lose before the Elite Eight, and Raz is really coming into his own now. The fifth point will come from either Burgin or Huber, as Heerboth’s match will be too long to finish. If Case is going to keep this thing close, they need two points in doubles, but Kenyon is easily one of the top three deepest teams in the country, and the Spartans won’t be able to keep up with their depth in this one.

Region 3

This is essentially the same Williams team that saved seven team match points in a colossal comeback against CMS two years ago. With experience like that, there’s no way they’ll let a bunch of upstarts take them down on their home courts. Whether it’s Skidmore or MIT, Williams has locks at #2 doubles, and #3, 5, and 6 singles. Don’t get me wrong, they are very strong everywhere else, but there’s basically no way they lose at any of those positions. Beyond that, they’re huge favorites at every other position, and I expect them to sweep doubles and pick up two quick victories at the bottom of the singles lineup to ease their way into the Elite Eight again.

Region 4

Naturally, this is the other region that piqued my interest. Somehow, two of the top six teams in the West ended up in Atlanta, and I don’t think either of them should be completely counted out from pulling off the upset against Emory. The only problem: they have to play each other first.

Last year, two really good teams in Whitman and NCW ended up in Atlanta. Either one of them could have pushed the national champions, but they had to go to war with each other the previous day. I know for a fact that NCW’s #5 and #3 singles players were cramping by the time they clinched it at 5-1, even though it was headed to 6-3. Unfortunately, I think the same thing will happen to my guys this year:

It’s no secret that the last time these two teams played, the match included four 3-setters and a marathon at #2 singles for Brown to clinch it. A couple things have changed since that match: UT-Tyler will be fresher than they were last time, and Ybarra is playing his first competitive tennis in over a month. If Whitman is going to reverse the result, they’re going to need to take full advantage of the latter fact without giving up anything because of the former. The best chance for Whitman to do so comes at #1 doubles where La Cava/Malesovas take on Ybarra/Brown. If any rustiness were to show, it would be most apparent in a fast-paced doubles match, but neither La Cava or Malesovas have the serves to throw Ybarra off and I think the DI transfers win that one 8-6. At #2, you’ve got Roston/Riggs vs. Spencer/Singer. It’s a new combo for Whitman, so I’m not really sure, but the Squirrels have historically been strong at #2 doubles. I think Tyler takes the lead at #3 doubles again this time around, purely because Tesmond hasn’t won a significant doubles match this year after playing a good #1 last year.

With a 2-1 lead, I think Tyler pretty much has it locked up. Ybarra is bound to be able to work his way into a singles match, even if Malesovas takes the first set again, and Brown would be a good #1 on any team. From there, I think the Pats will be able to find at least one more point, if not at #3 where Martinez will be taking on another transfer in Riggs, then at #4 singles where the senior Sadeghi hasn’t done much all year for Whitman. I’ll take Whitman at 5 and 6 singles to make the final score 5-3 for Tyler when the match is decided. This whole thing changes if the Squirrels can take either match from Ybarra, but Whitman hasn’t won a nationals match in 5 years, so I don’t think they’ll pull anything out tomorrow.

As I’ve expertly foreshadowed, I think Emory will take advantage of an exhausted Tyler team on Saturday. With NCW gassed from today’s battle, the Eagles probably won’t have to work as hard to beat them this time around. All they need to do is take #1 doubles and the match is over because the Eagles are simply too deep for the Bishops. In the regional final, Emory’s depth will overwhelm Tyler.

IF, by some miracle, Tyler is able to get past Whitman without expending too much effort, we’ll have a match on our hands. As others have stated, Brown and Ybarra could get their team three points by expoiting Emory’s relative weakness at the top of both lineups. A fresh Spencer could really give Mosetick some headaches, and Martinez doesn’t seem to be capable of getting tired either way, but I have a hard time imagining Tyler winning at either 2 or 3 doubles, so they would really need everything to go their way to win this one. I really really really really really want to take the Patriots in this one, but I can’t go against the history of the Eagles’ program. My heart is telling me Pats, but my brain says Eagles.

Region 5 and Region 7

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I’m sure those other teams don’t appreciate being overlooked, but I’m doing it anyways. I’ll talk these two more when we do an Elite Eight preview.

Region 6

This is an intriguing region, but there should be no doubt about who I’m picking to come away with this one. Trinity has traveled this path to get to the Elite Eight before, and I don’t think they’ll have to break much of a sweat doing it again this year.

GAC is much improved since TU beat them in the Round of 32 two years ago, but even their top combo of Donkena and Smith-Dennis won’t be able to save them here. Against the Gusties, the Tigers would repeat their performance from February and come away with a 5-2 win. For starters, DelaFuente is far too strong for anyone GAC has at #4 singles, and TU has one of the best players in the country at the top of the ladder. There’s 2 points right there. GAC also isn’t deep enough for anyone to take out Curtis, even with Entwistle finishing the season strong. So there’s 3. Anyone remember the last time TU didn’t win at least two points in doubles against a lower-ranked team? (I think it was against Skidmore last year, and that won’t be happening again). Skinner and Moreno with throttle Johnson and Leisner again, and Trinity will be able to take either 1 or 3 to make it 5-2.

If their opponent is UW-W, it’s really just more of the same. The Warhawks have a very similar makeup as the Gusties, perhaps a little more depth in doubles and a little more weakness in the heart of the singles lineup. Regardless, Skinner, DelaFuente, and Curtis will win; #2 doubles will win, and they will find a way to put something together for a 5th point. The only difference is that UW-W could have a big crowd at home that could propel them to two doubles points at #1 and #3. Bayliss is perpetually dangerous at #5 singles, and Balkin is a proven #2 singles player. Even if everything goes the Warhawks’ way, they’ll fall short at #3 singles where Moreno is on a tear.

Perhaps I’m underestimating GAC and UW-W out of ignorance, but I’ve got faith in TU’s doubles. Doubles almost propelled them to the Final Four a couple years ago when they were barely in the top ten in terms of singles. Rain or shine, Trinity will extinguish the flame of hope with their exemplary doubles and win this region.

Region 8

You all might be wondering how I could possibly bring my West region bias to a match between Middlebury and Johns Hopkins. Most of you will have figured it out by the end of that sentence. BOB HANSEN FTW!!!

Even after a very disappointing season last year, Hansen had his team ready to take two doubles matches from a very dangerous Hopkins team on the road. Now they’ll be playing at home, and you know they’ll be excited to avenge themselves. The Jays may feel like they have a chip on their shoulder, but, as you can see, more people expect them to win than not. Moreover, they expect themselves to be competing for a national championship in two weeks, and they will be playing with the burden of expectation on their shoulders.

I think the key to this match is Spencer Lunghino. The man was Middlebury’s only consistent winner last year; he’s also the only senior in their starting lineup. We know the Jays will be getting some serious fire from their senior captain Andy Hersh, and the two will be facing off at #3 doubles. Hersh is the better singles player and a very good leader, but I think Lunghino’s game translates better to doubles and he and Campbell will provide a key tiebreaker victory at #3 doubles. Johnston and Lebovitz will continue their tear with a 9-7 win at #1, while Garcia and Joachim will get a point for Hop at #1.

In singles, Middlebury is one of the few teams that has the goods to hang with Hopkins deep in the lineup. Hersh will beat Jones at #2, but everything else is up in the air. I think Johnston’s experience with a tougher schedule this year will push him over the edge in a 3-setter against Brown, while Hopkins will continue their dominance of the #6 position with whoever they slot in there (most recently, Weissler). Frons will then steal one from Garcia, while Hwang rolls over Cambell at #3 to bring the match to 4-4 with #4 singles still on. Lim has been incredibly good for the Jays this year, but this time, Midd’s senior will eek out a 3-set win and earn a Gatorade shower for sending his team back to the Elite Eight.

There you have it, folks. Thank you very much for your time.

Oh, and P-P got jobbed