Sunday Preview! Trinity/Kenyon and CMS/CMU

As we always do, we will be coming together to give you guys some previews for some HUGE matches this weekend. Tomorrow, we get to see Trinity TX vs. Kenyon, which we saw at Indoors, as well as CMS/CMU at Biszantz Tennis Center, which will be an absolute doozy. Shoutout to everyone that contributed to this article including D3West, The Guru, D3Midwest, and of course myself. Let’s get to the previews, because there is a lot to read below. Kick us off WEST!  By the way, we’re using Power Rankings in the rankings below.

#16 Trinity TX vs #24 Kenyon

Trinity Power 6: 70.52. Wilson Lambeth (12.06), Chas Mayer (12.62), Jordan Pitts (12.26), Liam Crawley (11.66), McKenna Fujitani (11.16), Tilden Oliver (10.76)

Kenyon Power 6: 70.18. Nick Paolucci (12.25), Jake Zalenski (11.98), Michael Liu (11.75), Weston Noall (11.51), Mike Roberts (11.65), Max Smith (11.04)

D3West: Interestingly, the last match these two teams played was against each other at Indoors, with Trinity coming away with a 6-3 victory. The match was not without drama, but Trinity was never in serious danger of losing after taking two of the doubles matches comfortably and winning five first sets. Don’t let the UTR discrepancies at the bottom of the lineup fool you, a couple weeks ago Fujitani beat Roberts 4 and 0, while Oliver beat smith 5 and 0. I don’t see how a change in scenery could possibly be in Kenyon’s favor. Whereas before Trinity was traveling warm-to-cold to play on unfamiliar indoor courts, the Tigers will now be in comfortable territory, climate-wise. Other than Lambeth, none of the Tigers’ games are particularly well suited to indoor tennis, and I think Trinity will only be getting stronger as the year goes on. That being said, I’ve been burned by Kenyon before, and I know never to underestimate them. They have a ton of talent that they haven’t quite put together yet, and if they can find some answers on the doubles court, they will be a dangerous team moving forward.

One thing to look for in the lineups is whether or not senior Chas Mayer will move ahead of Lambeth for the #1 spot for Trinity. He was certainly stronger at Indoors, he’s more experienced, and his game is better suited for outdoor tennis. Mayer also was the top-seeded Tiger at ITAs in the fall and played ahead of Lambeth last season. I would be a little surprised if he doesn’t end up at the top line by the end of the season. Speculation aside, let’s get to some more speculation. I see Trinity starting their Spring Break hot with a doubles sweep followed by wins at 1, 3, and 6 singles for another 6-3 win.

D3Midwest: Last time the Tigers and Lords faced off in the coveted 7th place match at Indoors, Trinity took a 2-1 lead heading into singles. Unfortunately, Kenyon hasn’t been off to the greatest start in doubles this season. Against every ranked team they’ve played, the Lords have faced 2-1 or 3-0 deficits. The lineup has changed a few times, but I think the top doubles team of underclassmen Paolucci/Zalenski has a lot of potential. The other doubles teams are steadily improving. Yet, as West pointed out, Trinity is better suited for outdoor tennis, while Kenyon is more of an Indoor team. Realistically, the Lords are down again 2-1 after doubles.

One of Kenyon’s biggest problems is a lack of depth in singles. In their last four matches, including when they played Trinity at Indoors, the Lords lost at 5 and 6. Given that, and how well Chas Mayer has been playing for Trinity, I think the Tigers take another win, but I’ll go with 7-2 this time.

Guru’s Thoughts: This is an interesting match for three reasons. The first which both West and Midwest touched on, is that these two teams played virtually two weeks ago. Most bloggers predicted this as the 7th place Indoors match and most bloggers predicted the outcome correctly. The second reason is that these are two teams who traditionally get better as the season goes by and we should disregard that #14 is playing #20. While that was not the case for Trinity TX last year, Kenyon’s season started in the exact same fashion. They lost to Whitewater, finished 8th at Indoors and ended in the NCAA quarterfinals. This year they lost to a similar sneaky good Midwest team and then went 0-3 at Indoors. I feel like most people learned from their mistakes last year and are not writing Kenyon off yet. Which brings me to my third point that both of these teams are used to be being ranked far above where they are right now, so this is an important match for momentum and confidence reasons. If either of these teams gets confident and starts clicking, they have the ability to get hot and surprise Amherst after this match. That is especially true for Trinity who has very strong doubles and can ride sweeps to upsets.

#3 CMS vs. #8 CMU

CMS Power 6: 76.28. Glenn Hull (13.09), Daniel Morkovine (13.00), Daniel Park (12.38), Patrick Wildman (12.83), Julian Gordy (12.44), Max Macey (12.54)

CMU Power 6: 73.29. Daniel Levine (12.67), Michael Rozenvasser (12.89), Chaz Downing (12.60), Kenny Zheng (12.15), Mark Prettyman (11.15), Kunal Wadwani (11.83)

D3AS: This is by far the match of the weekend despite a few other good matches, including Bowdoin/Skidmore and Trinity/Kenyon as seen above. Given that this is really the only big match from my region’s standards now that Swarthmore has essentially pooped the bed (they’re a whopping 0-9 on the season after today’s loss to CMU). As the Guru will mention below, this is an absolutely massive match for the Tartans, because this is the only way to improve their ranking prior to the UAA Tournament.  They currently sit at 4th in the UAA standings but with CMS’s schedule and a lot of potential indirect wins, they could move up. CMS has the Stag-Hen soon where they will play Wash U most likely, so who knows.  I feel like this match deserves a match by match breakdown so I will go through that, but first want to give my thoughts because both these teams have played matches recently.

The most telling is that both these teams have played Swarthmore in the past two days. CMS boxscore is here – http://www.cmsathletics.org/sports/mten/2016-17/releases/20170310j4jd95

The CMU boxscore is not available yet as they just finished yesterday, but CMU swept doubles and then won 4 singles matches, with two matches being lost in super tiebreakers at #4 and #5 singles (Prettyman and Arora). CMS is clearly trying to figure out their doubles teams, but they’ll have a studly #1 doubles team in Morkovine/Gordy to face off against the Levine/Arora team that CMU has to offer. It’s funny because CMU also seems to be trying some new teams as they’ve thrown out different combinations of Zheng/Chen/Rozenvasser/Downing/Calzolano at the #2 and #3 doubles spots. It will be very interesting to see which doubles teams they throw out there.  In singles, CMS has the UTR advantage at almost every spot, but I don’t think that’s a reasonable way to determine this match. They may have inflated UTRs and I think CMU has some big time players that can really challenge them at most spots. Let’s go to the match by match preview to check out what’s going on.

#1 Doubles – Morkovine/Gordy (CMS) vs. Levine/Arora (CMU)

This is a freaking heavyweight bout. A great match that might end up being the difference between CMU having a real shot in this one and them just coming up with a close loss instead. There are three players on this court who I know have great doubles skills – the other one being Julian Gordy who seems to be the question mark here at least on the doubles court. I do love the fact that CMS is on their home courts and they almost always play well there. This is going to be close, let me take CMU here. CMU, 9-7.

#2 Doubles – Hull/Yeam (CMS) vs. Downing/Chen (CMU)

Interesting team here for the Tartans as I don’t see the match here but that being said I don’t get paid to make the teams. Hull/Yeam took a tough loss to Swarthmore, who has a decently sneaky #2 team. Given today’s CMU doubles performance (a sweep) some of us might think that CMU has the advantage here, but they will not sweep the Stags on their home courts. Let’s go with CMS, 9-7.

#3 Doubles – Berber/Park (CMS) vs. Rozenvasser/Zheng (CMU)

This is a powerhouse team for CMU with a lot of top talent versus a team that has been relatively unheard of up until this year.  This is a match I feel really confident about the Tartans taking, given that they are the same teams and Rozenvasser is playing well.  CMU 8-4

#1 Singles – Glenn Hull (CMS) vs. Daniel Levine (CMU)

The UTR tells me that Glenn Hull should be winning this match easy, but the gut check in me says differently. Levine has won basically his past 5 matches, some of them with UTRs higher than Hulls, and he’s playing damn well. His UTR is hurt by his earlier matches against DI opponents, but he’s playing lights out right now as D3West will mention later. Color me crazy, but I’m going with Levine here. CMU 5-7, 6-3, 6-3

#2 Singles – Daniel Morkovine (CMS) vs. Michael Rozenvasser (CMU)

A senior versus a freshman on the senior’s home courts as he’s playing well. Rozenvasser is back to what looks like full strength as he’s played a ton of matches this Spring Break already (Whittier, Wabash, and Swarthmore) so this should be a doozy. If Rozenvasser steps up here then this match could swing heavily in CMU’s favor. But I have to go with my first round fantasy draft pick over my fifth round fantasy draft pick. Gimme gimme, gimme gimme MORK. CMS 6-4, 6-4.

#3 Singles – Daniel Park (CMS) vs. Chaz Downing (CMU)

Downing has now moved ahead of Zheng to #3 singles, which is where he had a lot of success last year. This is a huge match here. Downing beat John Larkin (also another one of my fantasy picks) today, 0 and 4, which is a real good win. Downing is playing well and I like him to come up big against the relatively inexperienced Park. CMU 6-3, 6-2

#4 Singles – Patrick Wildman (CMS) vs. Kenny Zheng (CMU)

Young Wildman is someone we’ve been wanting to see consistently on the court for the past couple of years, and we finally get to see what he can do. Zheng is a tough out for sure and he’s another guy CMS better be pretty ready for, because Zheng is always ready. I like the talent of Wildman here in probably what’s going to be a 3 set match. CMS 6-4, 4-6, 6-3

#5 Singles – Julian Gordy (CMS) vs. Mark Prettyman (CMU)

Man, Mark Prettyman can’t catch a break. He lost today at #4 singles against Swarthmore in a third set after winning the first and has struggled a bit to finish matches so far this year. Gordy is playing real well and made quick work of the Swarthmore #5 just two days ago. I think he does so again against Prettyman. CMS 6-3, 6-4

#6 Singles – Max Macey (CMS) vs. Kunal Wadwani (CMU)

This is a guess here about who plays #6 singles for the Tartans and I think they’ll go with the senior here in such a big match. Arora has clearly regressed a little in singles (according to the Guru) and Wadwani can come up with some big wins with his experience. However, Macey playing #6 is just a really damn tough time as CMS seems extremely deep this year. I think Macey gets enough balls in the court and beats Wadwani in straight sets. CMS 7-5, 6-4.

Count that all up, you get CMS with a 5-4 victory. This one is going to be so extremely close that it’s hard to call who’s going to win.  Honestly on a neutral court, I think this is a 50/50 match especially since CMS is missing Parodi. In a 50/50 match, I’m going with the home team with a bit more experience than the other. This is going to be a tough match either way and I’m looking forward to 1PM ET tomorrow.

D3West: I completely agree with AS’ assertion that this is the match of the weekend. Last year (http://www.cmsathletics.org/sports/mten/2015-16/files/CMU-CMS.xtg), CMS needed a couple three-setters and a doubles tiebreaker to hold off the Tartans, and that was when they were playing well. So far this season, the Stags have been struggling on the doubles court, as exemplified by their doubles deficits against Bates, Brandeis, and Swarthmore. The team of Hull/Yeam really hasn’t put it together, and Settles is still looking for answers at the #3 spot. Gordy was a welcome addition to the doubles lineup this past weekend, when he rejoined Morkovine for a victory at #1 dubs over Swarthmore, but the Stags really seem to be missing the presence of freshman phenom Nik Parodi.

CMU has been playing well, but, as is often the refrain for them, hasn’t been able to come up big in clutch moments. After taking doubles leads against both Emory and Case, it’s very possible, likely even, that they will be playing from ahead after the first hour again this weekend, but I don’t envy their chances in a close match with an experienced team. Both Prettyman and Rozenwasser (the freshman all-Names team #1 and #2) are still experiencing some growing pains, and, while Levine played lights out at Indoors, whether he is able to maintain that level throughout the season remains to be seen. CMU is also dealing with the question of who is going to play #6 singles, with former lineup stalwarts Wadwani (Sr.) and Arora (So.) both shaking off some rust early this season. Ultimately, I can’t pick against CMS despite their shaky start to the season, and I think they recover from a doubles deficit to win 1 doubles, 1, 2, 4, 5, and 6 singles in a 6-3 win (with three-setters at 2, 4, and 5).

Guru’s Thoughts: The thing that pops out to me about this match is that it is CMU’s last opportunity until UAAs to improve their ranking. They’ll really just be defending from here on out against the same ASouth teams they play every season. And not only is it about ranking improvement, it’s about confidence and announcing to the country that they are a new team who is going to contend for a quarterfinal berth. CMS is a team that looks to be near the level of a Wash U or Emory, so CMU has to play an A+ match all the way through to win, and they have rarely been able to do that, both two weeks ago at Indoors and in years past. For CMS, this is their first true challenge of the season. It is a tuneup for the Stag-Hen and the start of what could be four matches against Top 10 teams in four days if they end up with the absurd S-H gauntlet of Wesleyan, Wash U then Bowdoin. The Stags are clearly still working out some early season kinks, so this is going to be a match where their younger guys need to step up against a tough opponent and play a little better than they have during the past few weeks.

And there you have it, the two big matches of the weekend. D3Northeast briefly touched on Bowdoin/Skidmore the other day in a NE preview, but just remember that that match is happening this weekend. Looking forward to tomorrow – stay tuned!