Pool C Update #6 – Crunch Time

It’s Pool C Update time, once again.  After another fun-filled weekend where the bloggers (mostly D3West and I) go at it with each other in the blogger group text, we have another Pool C Update on our hands.  I never know to post this before or after the bracketology (probably before) considering the two are so intertwined, but this weekend the Guru had some time on Sunday while I made the bloggers jealous with some NYC food trends. Anyways, something big happened this weekend and what was probably the biggest upset of the season.  That would be Tufts over Bowdoin (indoors) by the score of 5-4.  I think the last Pool C article worked really well and it was able to map out for everyone how the tournament is going to look based on all the different scenarios we could have. I think I will do that again because it was helpful, plus it’s really easy for me to copy paste the format into Microsoft Word.  We’re all about efficiency, folks. Shout-out to all of you GoT fans by the way. Another great week this week.  If you would like to reference the last Pool C article, please do so here.

Assumptions

• CMS wins the SCIAC and does not get dropped into Pool C.
• Middlebury wins the NESCAC.
• Emory has already won the UAA, this is just a fact.
• All other conferences do not get any Pool C bids.
• Spoiler alert – The UAA has locked in what looks to be 3 bids already. The teams are Wash U, CMU, and Chicago/Case. Again, we do not know which of those teams are in.

Quick Rundown of Teams

Bowdoin – Despite the loss today, Bowdoin is too strong to not get in the tournament via Pool C.  With their wins over CMS, Wesleyan, Williams, and others, Bowdoin has been dropped into Pool C with the loss but will not be in danger of losing their bid.  They can affect their seeding by losing in the NESCAC, which we will see later, but they will not be out.  Bowdoin fans rejoice.

Wash U – Wash U is in the tournament as the 5^th or 6^th overall seed at this point with a strong UAA.  You can make your arguments about their resume, which is fine, but they are in.  Just deal with it.

CMU – CMU is also in as either the 4^th or 5^th or 6^th overall seed with their strong UAA.  They have a fairly strong resume overall as well.  CMU’s regular season is over and they are now training for the NCAA Regionals.

Chicago – I’m going to take an excerpt from last article because it’s easier.  Let’s take a look at Chicago’s resume.  They currently have wins against Case Western, Wash U, Stevens, Tufts, Kenyon, UW-Whitewater, and Gustavus.  Notice how their only big wins have come against Case Western and Wash U.  However, they have also lost to both of those teams, and those losses have come most recently.  Chicago has also lost to CMU, CMS, and Emory on the year. They do not have any other losses outside of those teams.  Chicago overall has a strong resume of wins and that is the argument for them.

Case – Case got absolutely shafted by UAA seeding and now have to wait for the NCAA to review their resume before they get that NCAA call.  They have wins against Wash U, CMU, Gustavus, Coe, Brandeis, and Chicago.  However, they have more recent losses to both Wash U and CMU that is really hurting them.  They are helped by the fact that they beat Chicago most recently.  However, they are hurt by the fact that they don’t have a ton of resume wins and were unable to schedule Kenyon for the 5^th place Stag-Hen match.  They also had a match against Hopkins that was dropped off the schedule, which is mysterious but hurts them.

Williams – Williams is right now holding on for dear life in a season where they’ve beaten everyone they should, but no one they shouldn’t have.  They have wins over Pomona, Redlands, Wesleyan, Amherst, and Tufts.  Notice how the highest win there is against Pomona.  Anyways, Williams resume is basically one where they have no top 10 losses but don’t really have the wins.  You can say all you want about the UAA but yea, it’s tough to put Williams ahead of any of them right now.  Williams also has a loss to Bowdoin which now looks a little bit worse now that Bowdoin got upset by Tufts.  To me, it kind of shows that Bowdoin can be beaten, which Williams was unable to do the first time.  However, we will see that Williams has some more chances left in the schedule.

Tufts – Many of you might ask about Tufts now that they have a top 5 win in Bowdoin.  However, many should not forget that Tufts lost to unranked MIT literally two days before that.  Without that loss, we might be talking about a potential miracle bid by Tufts to make Pool C.  I do not believe that is going to happen at this point.  Tufts only way into the tournament is to probably win the NESCAC Tournament and gain a Pool A spot.  That would be nice for the whole NESCAC, to be honest.

W2W4

Ah, what to watch for.  What you basically need to know is that the regular season is coming to a close.  That means the NESCAC Tournament is next week.  We basically have our participants down pat and I believe the seeding system is going to be as follows:

#1 Middlebury

#2 Bowdoin

#3 Williams

#4 Wesleyan

#5 Tufts

#6 Amherst

This means that the first two seeds get byes and the other 4 play first round matches.  Williams/Amherst will be on one side of the draw and Wesleyan/Tufts will be on the Middlebury side of the draw.  Please note that the NESCAC does not play a 3^rd/4^th place match.  This favors any team that is in the top 2 and hurts any team fighting for Pool C.  Williams is the team that is most hurt by this rule.  They lose another chance to get a resume win because of conference rules.  Man, conference rules are really hurting the Ephs this year.

Scenario Work!

Let’s get into some scenario work about the NESCAC that will kind of map out for you who could possibly get in.  Most of the scenarios will be about Williams, because they are the only team that really has a shot at Pool C at this point.

If Williams def. Amherst in first round, Bowdoin def. Williams in semis

This is probably the most likely scenario out of all the scenarios with the way things have been going.  I still don’t believe Williams beats Bowdoin outdoors, but as Ellie Goulding would say, anything could happen.  So, if this happens, we would have Williams with their best win being Pomona and two losses to Bowdoin.  You will see that this is why Williams probably wishes there was a third place match in the NESCAC. Now that Bowdoin has been knocked down a notch, I believe this means Williams misses the tournament, making Chicago and Case the last two Pool C spots.

If Williams def. Amherst in first round, Williams def. Bowdoin in semis, Midd def. Williams in finals

Here is where Williams takes the resume win that is Bowdoin in the semifinals of the NESCAC. With a win over Bowdoin (who has beaten CMS this year), Williams notches a win over a team that is very comparable to the UAA teams of Wash U, CMU, Case, and Chicago.  This would seem to give Williams enough ammunition to get into the tournament coupled with their multiple resume wins of Amherst x2, Tufts, Wesleyan, and others.  In this scenario, I believe that Williams earns a Pool C bid, knocking one of Case/Chicago out.  Notice how I am not choosing between either Case/Chicago because I really do not know which of them get in at this point.  The argument is subjective and while I personally believe that Case should be the one to get in, every side has a pretty damn good argument.  We shall definitely see.

If Amherst def. Williams

Williams season is over.  Case and Chicago make it in.  This one is pretty explanatory.

If Tufts def. Wesleyan, Tufts def. Middlebury, Bowdoin def. Tufts in finals of NESCAC

I wanted to add this fun scenario of Tufts beating two teams ranked ahead of them but not getting the Pool A bid that they wanted.  This would give Tufts wins over Wesleyan, Amherst, Middlebury, and Bowdoin on the year.  However, Tufts also has losses to MIT, Chicago, Wesleyan, Redlands, and Williams on the year.  You can see why Tufts probably still doesn’t get in if they do all of these things.  If this somehow happens, I believe that Case and Chicago still get the final two spots. Williams is left out to dry as well as Tufts.

Crazy Scenario – Pomona wins the SCIAC

I’m not going to go into all the scenarios where Pomona wins the SCIAC.  But, it’s something to take note of.  If they win the SCIAC that means CMS gets a Pool C bid for sure.  That knocks one bid out of the hands of either the last UAA team or Williams.  The scenarios above apply, BUT whoever is up for the last spot will not get it. If this happens, Williams absolutely has to beat Bowdoin.  They will then be in a contest between themselves, Chicago, and Case for the final spot, which would be crazy.  One spot for three deserving teams.  In this scenario, I believe Chicago/Case will be the final spot-getter.  Williams still gets left out to dry.

ASouth, who am I rooting for?

If you are either Case or Chicago, you are rooting for Amherst to take out Williams in the first round of NESCACs.  If they don’t, then you root for Bowdoin.  You also root for Middlebury to win the whole damn thing and you root for CMS to win the SCIAC.  If all these things happen, you are both looking pretty good to make the tournament.

If you are Williams, you don’t need to root for anyone but yourselves.  It’s on your rackets, so to say.  Pretty damn simple.

Anyways! I was able to write this article in about 20-30 minutes, which is a world-record for me.  I’m happy to get out Pool C articles for you guys by the minute because at this point I’m really, really, well-versed in what’s going on at least with these teams.  Don’t ask me anything about any other teams though.  I don’t know much about them. I can’t wait for the next Matt Heinrich email where he asks me all the scenarios of where Stevens goes about 10 minutes after I post this article.  As always, if you have comments or arguments you would like to air out, please do so in the comments.  I have gotten feedback from my fellow bloggers that my arguments are too polarizing, so I will do my best to keep an open mind.  I do have a strong point of view due to all the research that goes into this, but I will be open, I promise! And without further ado, ASouth, OUT.