Man, I had myself a WEEKEND. But y’all aren’t here to hear about my doings, y’all are here to hear about some Pool C action because DIII Tennis had itself a weekend as well. If you want to reference my old Pool C article for assumptions on rules, teams, etc, please visit it here. I will not be repeating my rules every article because I doubt you would want to spend half an hour of your time writing, formatting, and editing the same stuff over and over. Okay, let’s make like a carnivore and get to the meat of this article. Below are some assumptions as always, which are important. The rest is team by team. You know the drill boys and girls. Also, I used the same template as last weeks and didn’t update to the newest ITA rankings. Maybe I should do that. FINE.
Assumptions:
- Please note that one of the five UAA teams listed will win the UAA and be removed from the Pool C discussion. Please note that one of the six NESCAC teams will win the NESCAC and also be removed from the Pool C discussion.
- Please note I am assuming CMS wins the SCIAC, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
- Please note I am assuming that a random conference winner like Hopkins won’t screw everyone over by losing in their conference tournament.
- Right now, my thoughts are that the Pool C Breakdown will be 2 NESCAC spots, 2 UAA spots, and 1 SCIAC spot. This is not set in stone obviously.
Okay, that’s all the assumptions. What’s the first team, ASouth?
Almost Guaranteed – 95% In
Emory Eagles – ITA Ranking #2
Remaining Schedule –UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #5 Wash U, #10 CMU, #26 Skidmore, #30 Tufts
Notable Losses – #7 Trinity TX, #6 Middlebury
My Thoughts – Emory didn’t have the weekend they wanted up in Vermont, but still sit at a 95% chance in because they have wins over their two UAA competitors for Pool C, have a winnable match against the Chicago/Case first round, and the name of their school is Emory. The only way I think they miss the tournament is if they either lose first round and some crazy stuff happens in other conferences, or they lose to Case/Chicago and also the third place match. They will probably sit at around #5/6 in the nation or so. If they win the UAA tournament, they will go into the whole thing with that overall seed most likely. Emory put the UAA in a precarious position losing to Middlebury but that’s no skin off their backs. Last time I checked, this is the last team that cares very much about how their UAA competitors are faring.
Verdict – Emory is going to be in the tournament. What is yet to be determined is whether or not they will get a top #1 seed or a lower one, based on how they do in the UAA Tournament and how everyone else does in theirs. I think they are the front runner in the UAA and have the best chance to win it right now. They are currently projected to be a top #1 seed, which is a good place to be.
Pomona Pitzer Sagehens – ITA Rank #3
Remaining Schedule – SCIAC Tournament
Notable Wins –#10 CMU, #8 Bowdoin, #12 Case Western, #7 Trinity TX, #4 Amherst, #6 Middlebury, #14 Williams, #13 Chicago, #21 Cruz, #31 CLU, #30 Tufts, #26 Skidmore
Notable Losses – #20 Bates, #1 CMS (x2), #17 Redlands
My Thoughts – Pomona has done absolutely no one any favors this year. They have beaten all the top Pool C teams and have gone out and lost to two Pool C teams that are currently the first teams out. They are making this difficult for everyone, but again, who cares? They only care about themselves. The thing is, with their loss to Redlands, we can all throw the “Let’s send Pomona outside of California” scenario out the window. I was a bit turned off by the “Regular Season Championship” comment on their twitter and hey, there was a reality check. Nick Ballou must have taken over the twitter account for a second. Pomona is in the tournament barring a loss in the first round of the SCIAC and some crazy stuff happening in other tournaments.
Verdict – Pomona will also be in the tournament. Last edition of this Pool C, I said I would make a strong push to get Pomona out of the CMS region. Unfortunately, I don’t think there is much point anymore. This team had to be perfect to get that #2 ranking in the nation and really giving the NCAA a situation they have never had before. Nowadays, I expect Pomona to fall in the rankings to the bottom #1 seeds, which means the NCAA will most likely put them as the #2 seed in the CMS region. Tough luck for the Sagehens and I feel for them, but hey, at least they know they are in the tournament.
Amherst Lord Jeffs – ITA Ranking #4
Remaining Schedule – #14 Williams, #22 Wesleyan, #20 Bates, #6 Middlebury, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #26 Skidmore, #30 Tufts, #10 CMU (Fall), #11 Hopkins (Fall), #5 Wash U, #8 Bowdoin
Notable Losses – #4 Pomona
My Thoughts – Last time out, I had some qualms about putting Amherst so high in the rankings and had them at 70% in, but after a great set of matches against Wash U and Bowdoin, they have now fallen into my good graces. The rest of the way, they have winnable NESCAC matches and then their annual tilt with Middlebury. That will be their toughest test and the decider if they get a top 1 seed or a bottom 1 seed. The winner of the NESCAC will probably take the top spot and potentially the #2 overall seed. Their loss to Pomona can be chalked up now to first match jitters and the tough time it is to play against a Cali team in your first outdoor match. This team is now my biggest threat to CMS and rightfully so.
Verdict – Amherst is my favorite to win the NESCAC with the way they have been playing lately. Moving Solimano up to #2 was a good move and it puts Zykov in a position to be the best #3 outside of CMS. These guys have had a history of improving as the season moved on and we are seeing the start of that right now. I don’t expect many losses if any for Amherst the rest of the way.
Middlebury Panthers – ITA Ranking #6
Remaining Schedule – #9 Bowdoin, #20 Bates, #4 Amherst, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #21 Cruz, #17 Redlands, #26 Skidmore, #14 Williams, #30 Tufts, #2 Emory
Notable Losses – #4 Pomona, #1 CMS
My Thoughts – Last time out, I said that Middlebury was in the same boat as Amherst and I simply wasn’t sure how good the NESCAC was. Well, just like Amherst, this team has gone out and proven me to simply be a hater. Middlebury took it to Emory on their home courts (heard the crowd got rowdy) and are now another lock for me to make it via Pool C. They do have a good amount of important matches coming up, especially for OTHER Pool C candidates. The resurgent Bates team will want another win to give the NESCAC an even stronger case to get 3 Pool C spots and Bowdoin will want to strengthen their case as well. Then of course, the tilt with Amherst and the NESCAC tournament where the two teams will play for seeding in the NESCAC and then the NCAA tournament. I could have basically re-written my Amherst post for Middlebury.
Verdict – I am now sold on this Middlebury team! D3NE will probably rejoice because he doesn’t like how I hate on his teams. It’s not my fault your season starts late and no one knows how people have improved or gotten worse over the offseason. Anyways, I am not convinced that this team can beat Amherst twice in a row and I just feel that the Jeffs will beat them in the NESCAC tournament to take that coveted #2 overall seed. Worst case scenario, Middlebury loses both and ends up with a low #1 seed. Some worst case scenario, huh.
Highly Likely – 85% In
Washington University Bears – ITA Ranking #5
Remaining Schedule – #38 Coe, UAAs
Notable Wins – #11 Kenyon (2), #10 Hopkins, #12 Case Western, #7 Trinity TX, #14 Williams, #19 UT-Tyler, #13 Chicago, #25 UWW
Notable Losses – #2 Emory, #1 CMS, #4 Amherst,
My Thoughts – Does everybody realize how big of a match that Chicago/Wash U finish was? If Wash U lost that match, it would probably bring their percentage down to like 65% and Chicago’s up by 20 points. It would have affected every other Pool C competitor in the race, including CMU and Bowdoin. Since they avoided that loss, Wash U essentially avoided any direct or indirect losses to all of the teams below them and that is why they sit at 85%. The way they could miss the tournament is if they get third or below at the UAA and then the NESCAC tournament heats up to where we have to give them three spots. The way that could happen is if Bates beats Bowdoin or Midd or whoever and the other guys don’t lose to any really bad teams. It definitely could happen and it’s something to keep an eye on. Also, if Chicago or Case makes a run to the UAA final while Wash U finishes 3rd or lower (assuming CMU is the #3 seed and Case/Chi is 4/5). Are these things likely to happen? The NESCAC scenario is certainly possible and Wash U has not looked like a sure bet to get 2nd in the UAA. It will be interesting but I have always had faith in the Bears.
Verdict – Wash U is a team that steps up at the end of the year and this year will be no different They’ve scared me a bit with that near loss to Chicago but if you remember correctly, Pomona did the same thing against the Maroons. The blowout against Amherst is tough but it was also on weird NE Indoor courts. Wash U will face no problems in terms of circumstances down at the UAA tournament where they will play the #7 seed and the winner of CMU/Brandeis. Assuming it’s CMU, that is a massive match in terms of seeding for the tournament as well as potentially making it. The winner of that guarantees they are in the tournament. The loser of that has to win the 3rd place match and hope their resume holds up against whoever finishes 4th in the NESCAC. I think Wash U gets the job done and takes at least 2nd place in the UAA to cement their place as a lower half #1 seed in the NCAA.
Second to Last In – 75% In
Bowdoin Polar Bears – ITA Ranking #8
Remaining Schedule – #6 Middlebury, #32 W&L, #30 Tufts, #14 Williams, NESCAC
Notable Wins – #10 CMU, #17 Redlands, #15 Whitman, #23 Trinity CT, #22 Wesleyan
Notable Losses – #3 Pomona, #20 Bates, #4 Amherst
My Thoughts – Bowdoin was a team trending up on a Tuesday, but their late week performance is leaving some things to think over. Their loss to Bates really throws a wrench in things (I called Bowdoin as the team most likely to be upset by a lower contender) because Bates now has two great wins on their resume, with two terribad losses. Enough about Bates though. Bowdoin can really help their case for the tournament by taking out Middlebury, Williams, and finishing 2nd in the NESCAC tournament. That would be a guarantee. If they lose to Middlebury, but beat Williams, Tufts, and get 3rd in the NESCAC, I think they are sitting pretty as well. The only way they will run into trouble is if they lose to Williams and lose in the 3/6 match of the NESCAC, which is looking potentially like Wesleyan. Maybe I should have improved Bowdoin to an 80% chance but this is a team prone to upsets because of their doubles. I feel good at this rate.
Verdict – Is Bowdoin the team we saw at the beginning of the season or is it the one that just lost to Bates pretty handily (albeit Indoors) and got spanked by Amherst? I hope it’s not the last team, because Bowdoin is a very good team that I think deserves to make it in. They have their Pool C wins (CMU most importantly) so the Polar Bears really need to mess things up to miss the tournament. Do I think Bowdoin has the goods to upset Middlebury anymore? Probably not. I do think, however, that they will take care of business and defeat Williams/Tufts/Wesleyan and get 3rd/4th in the NESCAC to cement their place in Pool C. They need to keep watch on the ITA Rankings, because with their loss to Bates, they may drop out of #1 seed contention or potentially get the last #1 seed. That means they would get CMS if they advance to the Elite 8. Losing hurts, man.
Last In – 70% Chance In
Carnegie Mellon Tartans – ITA Rank #10
Remaining Schedule – UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #16 Gustavus, #7 Trinity TX, #12 Case Western, #11 Johns Hopkins, #18 Mary Wash
Notable Losses – #2 Emory, #9 Kenyon (x2), #8 Bowdoin, #3 Pomona
My Thoughts – This is truly a tightrope team. After losing to Kenyon (who is looking surprisingly strong, by the way) I thought this team was going to be on the brink of falling out of the tournament. However, they came back this weekend by taking two extremely important matches against Mary Washington and Johns Hopkins. The reason these are so important is because Bates is the team that poses the biggest challenge to them outside of the UAA. Bates has lost to Hopkins and UMW while beating Pomona and Bowdoin. Indirect cancellation! CMU is a team that hasn’t lost to anyone outside the Top 10 and that makes a case for a good resume. If they finish #3 in the UAA tournament they will most likely make the tournament barring a Bates/Williams upset special. If they finish 2nd or higher, they are automatically in to the tournament. If they are 4th or lower, they run the risk of getting knocked out. The only way they make the tournament if they are 4th is if Case beats them and Bates loses to someone with a lower ranking than them that isn’t Williams. Oh, and Redlands loses to Pomona.
Verdict – The Tartans are the last team in in this 5 Pool C world, and it’s a nerve-wracking place to be. I think they are the most talented team out of the bunch and their demolition of Hopkins and UMW this weekend in doubles leads me to believe they can handle their business. They have a ridiculously big match against Wash U in the semifinals of the UAA Tournament that could ease all Tartans fans minds. However, while that match will be close, I am a stronger believer that this team will go status quo and get third in the UAA, which will put them in as the other teams don’t do enough to upset a team that has 0 losses outside the top 10.
Down but not Out – 35% Chance In
Bates Bobcats – ITA Ranking #20
Remaining Schedule – #6 Middlebury, #30 Tufts, #4 Amherst, #14 Williams, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #3 Pomona, #22 Wesleyan, #8 Bowdoin
Notable Losses – #34 NC Wesleyan, #18 Mary Washington, #11 Hopkins, #1 CMS
My Thoughts – Oh, Bates! This team is the official DIII Wild Card this year as they now have two top 10 wins floating their resume. It’s even against Pool C competitors, what a boon for the Bobcats. I listed this team as a less than 5% chance last time out and I guess that was wrong because things are happening right now. Bates needs the following things – take care of Tufts, Williams is the first thing. The second is to upset either Middlebury, Amherst, or someone in the NESCAC tournament. For some god knows what reason, the NESCAC doesn’t play a third place match and that hurts Bates chances because they might be the #4 seed going in. Honestly, it would be better for Bates to be the #6 seed and play Bowdoin, because I’d rather play Bowdoin and Middlebury and get two shots at an upset. I think Amherst is too serious to get upset right now. Bates needs one upset and they also would need the committee to ignore their “bad losses” to NCW and UMW. CMU has none, and that is who they need to overtake. If CMU gets 4th in the UAA and Bates pulls an upset, they will be in.
Verdict – Unfortunately, I think Bates might be Bad Luck Brian this year. With Schwartz in and out of the lineup (I’ve said this kids name way more than I need to this year), I never know if Bates has a chance to upset the top teams. The remaining teams on their schedule are super tough to beat especially after Middlebury’s performance this weekend. Williams is not a huge win right now. They are CMU’s biggest enemy and they are hoping for the Tartans to get 4th so they can potentially sneak into the tournament. I don’t think Bates has the guns to pull the upset on Amherst or Midd and I have them finishing as the first team out.
Looking Up at a Berth – 30% Chance In
Redlands Bulldogs – ITA Rank #17
Remaining Schedule – SCIAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #18 Mary Washington, #19 UT-Tyler, #21 Cruz, #22 Wesleyan, #31 CLU, #3 Pomona
Notable Losses – #15 Whitman, #8 Bowdoin, #6 Middlebury, #14 Williams, #1 CMS
My Thoughts – Patrick Lipscomb! Redlands finally got their close win against a good team in the most unbelievable of ways, where they took out the most battle tested team in the country by the score of 5-4. Does this put Redlands in the tournament? No. They are again a team that is CMU’s biggest enemy, because they really want them to finish 4th in the UAA and leave the door open for another team. Redlands would still have to pave their way into the tournament, which means beating Pomona as well. They would ALSO need Bates to not pull an upset because that would give them a better resume than Redlands. Lots of things need to happen.
Verdict – I am personally a fan of Redlands because they do get a bad rap, and seem to be a bunch of pretty good dudes. However, I am not a fan of the chances of the above happening for this Dawgs team. They beat Pomona 5-4 after Yasgoor was pulled and we know that he has been the Sagehens MVP this year. I wouldn’t be betting on the Dawgs in a pro-Pomona setting (CMS courts) at the SCIAC tournament. Even if they do win, do they even get in with losses to Williams, Middlebury, and Bowdoin? I just don’t see it happening for the Dawgs despite a fairly solid season.
Williams Ephs – ITA Rank #14
Remaining Schedule – #4 Amherst, #30 Tufts, #22 Trinity CT, #8 Bowdoin, #20 Bates
Notable Wins – #17 Redlands, #16 Gustavus, #26 Skidmore, #22 Wesleyan
Notable Losses – #1 CMS, #4 Pomona, #3 Wash U, #6 Middlebury
My Thoughts – As a wise man once said at a press conference, you play to win the game. My fellow bloggers seem to be high on the Williams train, but I am not. This team still has chances against Amherst, Bowdoin, and Bates. Thing is, a win over Bowdoin or Bates does not get them in. They are currently placing #5 in the NESCAC tournament which means a date with Bowdoin or Bates once again. Over those three matches, I believe they would have to win 2 out of those 3. Obviously, they could make this all moot by beating Amherst and gaining indirect wins over Wash U and CMU, but this is the more likely scenario. If they lose two out of three against the Bates/Bowdoin duo, I can’t say that they are in. They simply don’t have enough wins.
Verdict – I had thought that Williams would be the one to pull the upset on Bowdoin this week and I wouldn’t be writing this article, but Bates got to it first. Bates is clearly a pretty strong team this year while Williams is leaning towards more of an average team right now. Williams almost lost to Skidmore and hasn’t really proven to us that they can breakthrough for that big win. These next two weeks will obviously determine Williams season and I think they have the goods to get one upset, but not enough to get the two upsets they probably need to get into the tournament. Bates’ success has drilled into Williams Pool C hopes, which is a sad thing for this previous champ.
The UAA Afterthoughts – 15% Chance
Case Western Spartans – ITA Rank #12
Remaining Schedule – UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #15 Whitman, #13 Chicago, #16 GAC, #22 Wesleyan, #24 Stevens
Notable Losses – #9 Kenyon (x2), #11 Hopkins, #5 Wash U, #3 Pomona, #10 CMU
My Thoughts – Case has not played a match since my last Pool C update, which means not much to change for their write-up. They were one of the biggest losers of the win by Bates over Bowdoin because Case’s way of making it in was to beat one of the top 3 UAA teams. Now since the NESCAC is proving it’s strength, upsetting a top 3 UAA team in the third place match might not be enough for the Spartans. They simply don’t have any wins outside of the conference (Chicago is their best) to give them a better argument against a NESCAC power if it comes to it. What they can do, is beat one of the top 2 seeds in the UAA tournament to make the finals. If they do that, they will make everything super interesting because that means a big win over Emory or Wash U. Either one of those wins would give them a nice resume win but it’s still not even a guarantee.
Verdict – This is a Case down year right now and they will need to reload for next year. They’ve already lost to CMU and Wash U and there is no reason we should believe they can beat a top 10 team in Emory/Wash U in the main draw. A third place win just weakens the UAA’s case to another Pool C spot, so again, they need that main draw win. I put the chances above at 15% and I think that is definitely fair considering they haven’t beaten any top 10 team yet this year.
Chicago Maroons – ITA Rank #13
Remaining Schedule – #16 Gustavus, UAA Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Kenyon, #33 Depauw, #31 CLU, #19 UT-Tyler, #25 UW-Whitewater
Notable Losses – #12 Case Western, #3 Pomona, #5 Wash U
My Thoughts – Chicago gave it a pretty inspiring run against Wash U which would have seriously increased their Pool C chances. The Case Western loss really hurts them considering Case has lost to a few direct competitors. Now, Chicago will have to grind out the 4/5 match against Case, who revels in these type of matches and will be playing for their tournament lives as well. Chicago simply hasn’t gained the faith that’s needed to win multiple big matches in a row. They are in a similar situation as Case in which I think they have to win two matches in the main draw to make the tournament. They can obviously do it and have a better chance than Case at a one day upset, but their chances go down because they play Case in that first match. Case has the intangibles, Chicago the talent. If you combined both, you might get a Pool C contender. Oh, and Chicago obviously has to beat Gustavus. If they lose that they are out.
Verdict – Chicago really disappointed me when they took those four first sets and were on the brink of making the Pool C picture even more interesting than it already is. But, they faltered in the clutch and really need to figure out what needs to happen so they can win these big matches. Like I said in my thoughts, this is a team that can pull one upset, but not multiple in a row. I think the Maroons bide their time and wait for another chance next year.
Basically Out – < 2% Chance
Wesleyan Cardinals – ITA Rank #22
Remaining Schedule – #23 Trinity CT, #4 Amherst, #32 W&L, NESCAC Tournament
Notable Wins – #10 Kenyon
Notable Losses – #17 Redlands, #1 CMS, #12 Case Western, #8 Bowdoin, #20 Bates, #14 Williams
Trinity CT Bantams – ITA Ranking #23
Remaining Schedule – #4 Amherst, #29 Brandeis, #22 Wesleyan, #14 Williams, #20 Bates
Notable Wins – #31 CLU, #35 Denison, #26 Skidmore, #30 Tufts,
Notable Losses – #3 Pomona, #8 Bowdoin
Looking to Next Year – 0% Chance
The following teams are not going to make it.
Tufts Jumbos – ITA Rank #30
Brandeis Judges – ITA Rank #29
Swarthmore Garnet – ITA Rank #27
Cal Lutheran Kingsmen – ITA Rank #31
Depauw Tigers – ITA Rank #33
It’s been a seriously crazy weekend on all parts and I’m glad that everyone is involved in the discussion. To recap, there’s a huge fight for the last two Pool C spots. Currently, one UAA team holds one (CMU) and one NESCAC team holds one (Bowdoin). Those two teams are the front runners right now and basically control their own destiny. However, if one of them slips up it opens up arguments from all contenders, especially Bates. Also, keep an eye on some of the traditional UAA powers (Emory, Wash U) because if they bomb their conference tournaments (4th place) they would potentially be knocked out in a huge surprise. Everyone should be playing their best at this point in the game so the conference tournaments are really going to bring some huge drama. I’d love to hear y’alls comments about Pool C and your predictions so please feel free below. We’ll also be doing our Bracketology #2 very shortly so stay tuned for that as well. ASouth, OUT.
Nice job as always! You guys are absolutely killing it this year. Quick note on men’s SCIACs–they’re at a neutral site in Caltech this year; CMS is hosting the women’s side.