Pool C Update #1 – Bubble Watch

Well, I gave you a look at the historical Pool C data when I posted earlier this week and now I’m going to hit you all with some Pool C stuff.. for the CURRENT time period.  How relevant! This article is going to be another step in me building towards our first bracketology of the year, which I admit is a bit late.  I’m literally reading my Pool C article from last year and it says we already had two bracketologies out by this time! Man, we’re slacking aren’t we. I hope you don’t agree, otherwise I’d be mad.  Last year, I wrote a big Pool C article detailing everything all our contenders have done this year.  I will be doing the same thing this year because it worked very well last year.  I hope you are all okay with that logic.  This is going to be a long article, so let’s get straight to it.

As a refresh, this year there will be 5 Pool C or “At-Large” bids for the NCAA tournament.  These will consist of non-winners of the Conference Tournaments.  There are really three conferences to look at when looking at Pool C bids – the NESCAC, the UAA, and the SCIAC.  Don’t look anywhere else.  If you’re a longtime follower of the blog, you should already know this stuff! If you’re a first-timer, ask whatever questions you like in the comments section!  It’s time for me to list out your Pool C contenders, their chances of making it in this year, and what they need to do the rest of the year to get into the Big Dance.  Without further ado, let’s get started.

Assumptions:

• Please note that one of the five UAA teams listed will win the UAA and be removed from the Pool C discussion. Please note that one of the six NESCAC teams will win the NESCAC and also be removed from the Pool C discussion.
• Please note I am assuming CMS wins the SCIAC, because that’s probably what’s going to happen.
• Please note I am assuming that a random conference winner like Hopkins won’t screw everyone over by losing in their conference tournament.
• Right now, my thoughts are that the Pool C Breakdown will be 2 NESCAC spots, 2 UAA spots, and 1 SCIAC spot. This is not set in stone obviously.

Okay, that’s all the assumptions.  What’s the first team, ASouth?

Almost Guaranteed – 95% In

Emory Eagles – ITA Ranking #2

Remaining Schedule – #28 Skidmore, #23 Tufts, #6 Middlebury, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #3 Wash U, #9 CMU

Notable Losses – #7 Trinity TX

My Thoughts – Much to the chagrin of the rest of DIII, Emory has done what they needed to do at Indoors to put themselves in a good position for Pool C if they don’t win the UAA tournament.  They are highly likely to win this whole thing anyways, which is why they are in the 95% group.  To knock themselves out, they’d probably have to lose to Middlebury, lose in the semifinals of the UAA, and then lose in the 3^rd place match.   Or, they’d have to randomly lose to Skidmore or Tufts.  Yeah, I’d say 5% might be a little high for that, but whatever.

Verdict – Emory is going to be in the tournament.  What is yet to be determined is whether or not they will get a top #1 seed or a lower one, based on how they do against Middlebury and the UAA Tournament.  I think they are the front runner in the UAA and have the best chance to win it right now.  They are currently projected to be the second #1 seed, which is a good place to be.

Pomona Pitzer Sagehens – ITA Rank #4

Remaining Schedule – #1 CMS, #17 Redlands, SCIAC Tournament

Notable Wins – Everyone? Kidding. #9 CMU, #8 Bowdoin, #12 Case Western, #7 Trinity TX, #5 Amherst, #6 Middlebury, #14 Williams, #13 Chicago, #21 Cruz, #31 CLU, #23 Tufts, #28 Skidmore

Notable Losses – #26 Bates, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Pomona should be in the 100% bucket, but I put them in 95% for formatting reasons.  PP has beaten every single notable Pool C team other than Wash U and Emory, and they don’t even need to worry about one of them.  Pomona is basically in and playing for their way out of the CMS region.  As the Guru mentioned, they are the rightful #2 team in the country and will need a major collapse (losing all their remaining matches basically) to miss the tournament.  That’s not going to happen.

Verdict – Pomona will also be in the tournament.  They have done it all this year and have been the most impressive team outside of CMS.  One of my goals for this year in the blog is to make a strong push for getting Pomona out of the CMS section, because it’s only fair.  Let’s see what happens, because the verdict for Pomona’s playoff hopes are already set in stone.

Highly Likely – 90% In

Washington University Bears – ITA Ranking #3

Remaining Schedule – #14 Williams, #5 Amherst, #20 UT-Tyler, #13 Chicago, #27 UWW, #38 Coe, UAAs

Notable Wins – #11 Kenyon (2), #10 Hopkins, #12 Case Western, #7 Trinity TX

Notable Losses  – #2 Emory, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Despite a year that hasn’t necessarily reached expectations, Wash U sits pretty at the #3 spot in the country and the first Pool C spot due to their wins against Case, Kenyon, Hopkins, and Trinity TX.  They have a stranglehold on the second seed in the UAA tournament.  However, unlike Emory, they have many more matches to play, which brings their Pool C chances down to the 90% I’m showing above.  They need to be wary of the Williams match because that could throw a wrench in their playoff hopes.  The Amherst match will be a doozy, but I think the loser comes out of that unscathed in terms of playoff hopes.  The most important matches by far for the Bears are the Williams and Chicago matches and the UAA Tournament.  If  they get out of those matches with 2 wins (Williams, CHI, Semis, Finals/3^rd( they will be in.

Verdict – Wash U is a team that steps up at the end of the year and this year will be no different.  I honestly think they have a legit shot at the UAA Tournament and can win that whole thing and not worry about this article.  I’m pretty sure they don’t worry about these articles anyways, but whatever.  I’m counting on Wash U winning against Williams, Amherst, and taking at least 2^nd in the UAA tournament to put them in the tournament as a top seed.

The NESCAC Trio – 70% In

Amherst Lord Jeffs – ITA Ranking #5

Remaining Schedule – #3 Wash U, #8 Bowdoin, #14 Williams, #18 Wesleyan, #26 Bates, #6 Middlebury, NESCAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #28 Skidmore, #23 Tufts, #9 CMU (Fall), #10 Hopkins (Fall)

Notable Losses – #4 Pomona

My Thoughts – Amherst has done nothing this year to tell us how good they really are.  They are currently at #5 in the country based on a national championship win last year as well as their two fall wins against CMU and Hopkins.  The CMU win is pretty big for Pool C, but the thing is that no one really looks at those matches anyways.  We saw this in my Pool C historical article when CMU’s win over Amherst didn’t mean anything two years ago.  Amherst needs to come in the top 3 of the NESCAC, which seems like it should be a guarantee for a defending national champion.  If they can survive Bates and Wesleyan, Bowdoin has already done the heavy lifting for the NESCAC when they beat a ton of teams on Spring Break.

Verdict – Amherst should make it, considering they are a very talented team and they should be better than their last challenger in the NESCAC, Williams.  Coach Doebler is in question right now considering the Lord Jeffs have taken a step back, but it’s probably not his fault considering they had no recruits this year and lost a few key cogs.  Not to mention, the Pool A bid for the NESCAC is still up for grabs and I think the Jeffs win this one anyways.  I think they lose to Wash U, but they take win the NESCAC tournament (regardless of how they do in the regular season) and make the tournament via Pool A as a middle #1 seed.

Middlebury Panthers – ITA Ranking #6

Remaining Schedule – #14 Williams, #23 Tufts, #2 Emory, #9 Bowdoin, #26 Bates, #5 Amherst, NESCAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #21 Cruz, #17 Redlands, #28 Skidmore

Notable Losses – #4 Pomona, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Middlebury is in the same boat as Amherst, as they are riding off their great performance in the NCAA tournament last year to a #6 ranking (which is a bit ridiculous).  They have beaten Redlands and Cruz to solidify their potential Pool C spot considering Redlands is one of their direct competitors for the spot.  However, there are only 5 spots this year and they run the risk of being upset by Williams and getting knocked out of the tournament picture.  I don’t think Middlebury is going to be knocked out, but they really need a strong performance against the bottom NESCAC teams (Williams, Tufts, Bates, Wesleyan) to keep them afloat.  They can make things a lot better for themselves by beating Bowdoin, which would give them a leg up on their Pool C competition.  The whole NESCAC is a question mark considering they start their season so late, so this is a lot of bluster at this point.  They also have a HUGE match against Emory at home and I think if they win that they are in the tournament.  I’ll obviously be keeping my eye on that match considering the potential Pool C implications.

Verdict – Is it just me or am I just not sold on this Midd team?  I don’t think they are good enough to go undefeated against the Bowdoin/Williams/Wesleyan trio, let alone beat Amherst twice with one being in the NESCAC tournament.  The Emory match is going to be massive and I think it will be really, really close especially on the home courts.  It could define the Panthers season.  I personally think Emory will come out victorious but it’s a toss-up.  At the end of the day, my gut tells me that Midd will split with Bowdoin and take care of their other NESCAC foes to come away with the NESCAC #2 spot and a Pool C berth.

Bowdoin Polar Bears – ITA Ranking #9

Remaining Schedule – #26 Bates, #5 Amherst, #6 Middlebury, #35 W&L, #23 Tufts, #14 Williams, NESCAC

Notable Wins – #9 CMU, #17 Redlands, #15 Whitman, #22 Trinity CT, #18 Wesleyan

Notable Losses – #4 Pomona

My Thoughts – Bowdoin has had a stellar year so far with their only blemish coming against the revelation that is the Sagehens.  With great singles play but suspect doubles play, Bowdoin is a threat to beat any of the NESCAC teams they have on their remaining schedule.  They run into trouble randomly and are also the team in the top 3 of the NESCAC that is most prone to an upset.  I said this last year, but there always seems to be one upset at the end of the year that throws a giant wrench in things and makes choosing the Pool C teams so hard.  Bowdoin is my prime candidate to be that team that messes up, not because they aren’t good but because they are so easily swept in doubles for some reason.

Verdict – As I mentioned in my thoughts, this is a team that I think will be upset.  However, I think they will also upset Middlebury, so it’ll give the NESCAC a really good case for FOUR teams in the tournament.  That doesn’t mean they will get it, but it means they have a chance.  My prediction for Bowdoin is they take care of Bates and Tufts, but they split against Middlebury.  Luckily for Bowdoin, they have a win over CMU under their belt and will make them have a great case for the NCAA tournament.  I say Bowdoin is in, but things can go downhill if they lose to Middlebury and Williams.

Looking Over Their Shoulder – 65% Chance In

Carnegie Mellon Tartans – ITA Rank #9

Remaining Schedule – #11 Kenyon, #10 Hopkins, #19 Mary Washington, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #16 Gustavus, #7 Trinity TX, #12 Case Western

Notable Losses – #2 Emory, #11 Kenyon, #9 Bowdoin, #4 Pomona

My Thoughts – Right now, CMU is the last team into the tournament based on ranking as well as general resume.  They have two direct losses to Pool C competitors, so they are Bowdoin’s biggest fan.  Their worst case scenario is if Bowdoin/Midd/Williams all start beating each other and the NCAA committee deems the NESCAC a stronger conference than the UAA, bringing the UAA down to 1 Pool C spot.  This is a definite possibility to CMU needs all the resume wins they can get to make the tournament.  They did well beating Case Western today to stave off a Pool C loss, but they have two more big matches before the UAA tournament – Kenyon and Hopkins.  These aren’t Pool C competitors but both teams are within the top 11 and would be considered big resume wins.  They also have the UAA tournament where they could cement their tournament berth with a 2^nd place finish.  A third place finish will probably get them in, but it would be a question mark depending on what happens in the NESCAC.

Verdict – I have been high on the Tartans this year and I think they will end up being the last team into the tournament with a Pool C berth.  They are currently favorites against Kenyon tomorrow (or later today) and will be a slight favorite vs. Hopkins considering they are playing at home.  No matter what, the UAA tournament is their biggest set of matches and I think they have a shot to make a guarantee by winning a semifinal match, but the more likely scenario is they get 3^rd and move onto the NCAA with either a low 1 seed or a high 2 seed.

Down but not Out – 45% Chance In

Williams Ephs – ITA Rank #14

Remaining Schedule – #28 Skidmore, #6 Middlebury, #18 Wesleyan, #5 Amherst, #23 Tufts, #22 Trinity CT, #9 Bowdoin, #26 Bates

Notable Wins – #17 Redlands, #16 Gustavus

Notable Losses – #1 CMS, #4 Pomona, #3 Wash U

My Thoughts – You can’t say that Williams hasn’t had their chances, as they went to Pomona and played the Sagehens while also hosting Wash U this morning.  Both were big matches and the Ephs could not pull through against either Pool C competitor.  I still don’t know what to think about this Williams team because they’ve been dealing with a random bout of stomach viruses, unknown injuries, and other things.  Williams is a well-coached team that needs to do a few things to make the tournament.  They need to beat Middlebury or Bowdoin, clean up against Wesleyan, Tufts, etc, and get 2^nd in the NESCAC.  They start with a handicap because of their not so great year last year and that’s hurting them with the NCAA changes.  Bowdoin has increased their rep with their CMU win, meanwhile Williams has done nothing out of the conference except beat Redlands and GAC.  Midd and Bowdoin both have those wins as well.

Verdict – There’s something in my gut that makes me think Williams will pull the upset on either Middlebury or Bowdoin.  They will then meet one of those teams in the NESCAC in what will potentially amount to be a win and in match.  Also, watch out for that Wesleyan match because Williams is the better doubles team by far, but Wesleyan can really push them in singles.  They need to start putting it together or it will be too late for their Pool C hopes.  I think this team has the goods to pull one upset, but not the two they need to get into this 5 Pool C world tournament.

Looking Up at a Berth – 35% Chance In

Case Western Spartans – ITA Rank #12

Remaining Schedule – UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #15 Whitman, #13 Chicago, #16 GAC, #18 Wesleyan, #24 Stevens

Notable Losses – #11 Kenyon (x2), #10 Hopkins, #3 Wash U, #4 Pomona, #9 CMU

My Thoughts – Today’s loss to CMU was a crippling loss, considering the only remaining match on the schedule for Case is the UAA tournament.  With their two losses to Kenyon, they will fall even farther behind CMU if the Tartans beat the Lords tomorrow.  Case’s wins unfortunately are all against the Pool C hopefuls as well as some lower ranking Pool A teams.  They had their chances against three different direct competitors in Wash U, PP, and CMU, and were unable to come through in any of those matches.  What they need to do is get at least third in the UAA tournament and hope that the NESCAC teams don’t beat each other.  If Case gets third and Williams takes a match against Midd or Bowdoin, they are still probably out.  So, it’s third and help or 2^nd place and in for the Spartans.

Verdict – I’ve learned never to count the Spartans out because they have great resolve and a great coach.  However, I don’t think this year is in the cards for this team, especially after today.  Case is going to have to play the first round against Chicago, who we know isn’t an easy out.  In Florida, they’ll play their most important match on the third day (assuming they are in the third place match) and they will definitely be a little gassed.  Today’s match was so big for them because they could have moved up in Pool C AND the UAA Tournament.  Unfortunately, they now have a long road ahead of them.  I think they get to the third place match and give whoever they play a huge challenge, but they will ultimately fall short.

Flying Under the Radar – 25% Chance

Chicago Maroons – ITA Rank #13

Remaining Schedule – #3 Wash U, #20 UT-Tyler, #27 UW-Whitewater, #16 Gustavus, UAA Tournament

Notable Wins – #11 Kenyon, #26 Depauw, #24 CLU

Notable Losses – #12 Case Western, #4 Pomona

My Thoughts – Oh, Chicago.  Their schedule has not been all that strong so far this year and the opportunities they’ve had, they’ve failed.  Both Case and Pomona represent big time losses because they are both ahead of them in Pool C.  The Case loss is especially damaging because the Spartans aren’t even in the tournament as of right now.  Chicago has some big matches ahead of them, one of them against Wash U.  Wash U represents their only chance to move up outside the brutal task that is the UAA tournament, so I hope they are ready for the challenge.  They also absolutely cannot lose to any of their remaining out of conference opponents.  I have the Chicago/GAC match on watch right now because that could end up being a tough one for the Maroons.  Chicago needs one of two things to get back into the conversation – either beat Wash U, or finish 3^rd or better in the UAA tournament.

Verdict – I just don’t see it happening.  Chicago is a talented team that simply hasn’t been there yet, as opposed to these other teams like Wash U, Emory, etc.  I don’t see Chicago beating Wash U, especially after another impressive performance today from the Bears.  Wash U knows that they have to beat Chicago and they will.  The UAA tournament will prove to be a tough test for the Maroons and I’m not sure if they can even get out of the first round against Case.  Case is the type of team that gets better as the year goes on.  Chicago is, well, sometimes the opposite.  I see Chicago beating the teams ranked below them, but unable to breakthrough and beat either Wash U or Case.

Silver Linings Playbook – 10-15% Chance

Wesleyan Cardinals – ITA Rank #18

Remaining Schedule – #14 Williams, #22 Trinity CT, #5 Amherst, #36 W&L, NESCAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #11 Kenyon

Notable Losses – #17 Redlands, #1 CMS, #12 Case Western, #9 Bowdoin, #26 Bates

My Thoughts – Now that I look at Wesleyan’s season, they may have less than a 15% chance to make the tournament but I will keep them here because of the talent that they have and the potential they have.  Their remaining schedule gives them the opportunity against Amherst, who is basically the only win they can get to put them in the tournament.  If they beat Williams and also get 2^nd in the NESCAC tournament, they can potentially get in but it would be a toss-up.  The Cards, while being a feel good story this year, have lost to too many competitors (Redlands, Case, Bates) to get into this without a ridiculous run at the end of the year.  Percentage is probably below 15% but I’ll be nice and put them in the bucket.

Verdict – Wesleyan has been a great story this year, but I just don’t think it’s in the cards for them this year (see what I did there).  They could essentially end Williams season by upsetting them next Saturday and the UAA would probably rejoice because it gives them a better shot to get in.  I don’t see Wesleyan taking out Williams with their doubles issues and I think Amherst is a pipe dream at this rate.  They will then most likely play Middlebury/Bowdoin in the first round of the NESCAC, which will probably be a pipe dream as well.  Wesleyan goes on to lose both matches and end up in the top 20 for the first time ever, which is something that they can hang their young hats on.

Redlands Bulldogs – ITA Rank #17

Remaining Schedule – #31 CLU, #4 Pomona, SCIAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #19 Mary Washington, #20 UT-Tyler, #21 Cruz, #18 Wesleyan

Notable Losses – #15 Whitman, #9 Bowdoin, #6 Middlebury, #14 Williams, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Redlands has had so many chances this year and they have simply not been able to come through.  They had that loss after sweeping the doubles against Bowdoin which was inexplicable for a team that needs to do something to make the tournament.  That was a big disappointment and probably their best chance to take down a Pool C competitor.  Now, they basically have to beat Pomona twice to get into the tournament and it’s not even a guarantee at that point.  Does Redlands have the guts to beat their rival both times?  I doubt it, especially considering both teams have a different resume of close matches this year.

Verdict – Redlands has had an okay season and not anything they should be disappointed about.  However, they haven’t done nearly enough and they won’t be able to beat Pomona twice to get into the tournament.  As D3West would say, does anyone think they can pull out two close matches against the battle-tested boys from Claremont?  I highly doubt it.

Needs CPR – <5% Chance

Bates Bobcats – ITA Ranking #26

Remaining Schedule – #9 Bowdoin, #6 Middlebury, #23 Tufts, #6 Amherst, #14 Williams, NESCAC Tournament

Notable Wins – #4 Pomona, #18 Wesleyan

Notable Losses – #27 NC Wesleyan, #19 Mary Washington, #10 Hopkins, #1 CMS

My Thoughts – Oh, Bates.  They had everything going for them and then they lost Schwartz for whatever amount of time and ended up free-falling.  Losses to NCW, UMW, and Hopkins are way too much to get back into this one, so they basically have to win the NESCAC tournament to get in.  Or, they could sweep Bowdoin/Middlebury/Amherst/Williams in the regular season.  But, that would basically be winning the NESCAC would it not?  If they win 3 of those our matches in the regular season THEN get second in the NESCAC tournament, that would put them in.  I mean, they did beat Pomona after all, so they have indirect wins over everyone and their mother right now.  They also lost to NC Wesleyan 7-2, which is downright tragic.

Verdict – I have faith in a Bates team making the top 20, I don’t have faith in a Bates team beating their highly ranked NESCAC foes.  Bates will potentially give Williams or Bowdoin/Midd a scare, but they will falter and end up thinking to themselves what would have happened if Schwartz didn’t miss a huge weekend of tennis.

Trinity CT Bantams – ITA Ranking #21

Remaining Schedule – #23 Tufts, #5 Amherst, #31 Brandeis, #18 Wesleyan, #14 Williams, #26 Bates

Notable Wins – #31 CLU, #33 Denison, #28 Skidmore

Notable Losses – #4 Pomona, #9 Bowdoin

My Thoughts – Trinity CT has flown under the radar this year and I almost missed them in this article completely.  They’ve done basically nothing this whole year other than be status quo.  With losses to Pomona and Bowdoin already, nothing here makes me think they can make a great run and beat Pool C teams to sneak their way into the final spot.  They have to beat a ton of the teams left on their schedule because they’ve basically made no moves this year yet.  I’d give that less than a 5% chance, would you not?

Verdict – I’m sorry, it’s just not happening.  Trinity CT will go tough with Wesleyan, Bates, and Tufts, but it might be a very tough run for the Bantams if their goal is the NCAA tournament.  I see them hovering around #20 but not ever being in this conversation from here on out.

Looking to Next Year – <2% Chance

I’m not going to go through these teams because this article is already long and people want to read this article before the Kenyon/CMU and Amherst/Wash U matches tomorrow.  The following teams have a low chance of making Pool C considering they have lost way too much already and probably can’t make it.

Tufts Jumbos – ITA Rank #23

Brandeis Judges – ITA Rank #35

Swarthmore Garnet – ITA Rank #29

Cal Lutheran Kingsmen – ITA Rank #31

Depauw Tigers – ITA Rank #32

Alright, alright, alriiiiiiiiiiight.  How you like them apples?!  That was my first Pool C article update for this year and I will have some more stuff for you this weekend and later on this year.  My final thoughts tell me that the Pool C field will be a barn burner at the end of the year.  The NESCAC has so much tennis yet to play and there are a few teams I could see just dropping off unexpectedly (Amherst, Midd, or Williams).  Bowdoin has done its job by beating CMU and they are looking pretty good.  In the UAA, CMU is sitting pretty but they still have a long way to go as well.  They have to be scared of the NESCAC jumble that may happen.  Pomona is looking good obviously and should be in.  Anyways, with the reduction of Pool C teams down to 5, it looks like we have to embrace the drama within the regular season for some of these teams instead of the tournament.  Shame on you, NCAA.  And with that, congrats to Wisconsin and Duke, ASouth, OUT.