Williams #SB15 Precap Part I

It’s gonna be tough to follow AS’s scoring format article, but I’m gonna try. Yet another top 15 team has left the NE has for sunny California skies, and though I’m not bringing the readers a coach’s perspective today (not so subtle hint about future articles) I do have my final Spring Break Precap for you.  Williams, not even two years removed from sitting atop the DIII world, will be one of the more interesting teams to watch this season. While their ceiling is very high (the Ephs could end up hosting their own region of NCAAs), their floor is also quite low (it’s conceivable to say this team might even struggle to make NESCACs). We’ve seen the Ephs’ new look lineup against a couple of non-DIII teams over the past two days, so let’s review those matches before moving on to today’s big match with Pomona.

RREEEEEEEEEEEEEEEECCCAAAAAAAAAAPPPPP

Williams has lost it’s opening two matches, though I doubt that’s weighing too heavily on Coach Greenberg’s mind. The scheduling was smart, and biggest thing to come out of either 5-4 loss is experience. I’ve recently found out about these thing called böxe scórês (pronounced box sk-ore) and they’re pretty darn enlightening. The box scores from Williams’ first two matches can be found here http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/releases/20150323nt86zo and here http://ephsports.williams.edu/sports/mten/2014-15/releases/20150324th39eh. Here are a couple of important take aways from these two matches:

1) Doubles. Williams is one of those rare NE teams that always seems to play good doubles, and it’s a good sign to see them taking 2/3 doubles points with new teams this early in the year. Schidlovksy and Astrachan have been playing doubles since the beginning of their Williams careers, and as is Greenberg’s way he has split up the old team to have each guy be able to lead a different duo (Schidlovsky and Sadowsky at #1, and Astrachan and Harron at #3). Raventos and Shastri at #2 should be a very tough team as well. “Rosé” (combo of the first names) as the boys call them, played together all of last year and make a formidable pairing.

2) Freshman? Only one of Williams 3 highly rated freshman is in their current starting lineup. Jordan Sadowsky, the lowest rated of the three freshmen, has slotted in at #1 doubles and #5 singles for the Ephs’ opening matches. The freshman is still looking for his first singles win, but is a welcome addition to the Ephs’ lineup. As for Grodecki and Raghavan, they had an exhibition win in Williams’ first match, but for now the 4-stars appear to be on the outside looking in.

3) Lineup switcharoos. The Ephs have been starting Raventos at 1, Schidlovsky at 2, and Harron at 3, and Shastri at 4, Sadowsky at 5, and Weiss at 6. While the bottom two spots make sense, the top four are flipped around from the Ephs’ fall dual match with Vassar. In the fall, Harron played #1, Shastri #2, Raventos #3, and Schidlovksy #5 under Weiss. Just goes to show you how much can change over the offseason.

4) Harron at #3. If you’re an avid reader, you all know by now that I think very highly of the blonde bomber. Conrad is entering his sophomore spring, and this is a crucial time in his development. The freshman excuse is no longer there, and the five stars mean about as much as Chris Broussard’s views on gay marriage. Traditionally sophomore spring is where a highly touted recruit either shines or crumbles. That is not to say he or she can’t recover from a tough sophomore year, but generally there isn’t much middle ground to a sophomore spring. I also believe that an improvement between freshman and sophomore year is a true testament to both a coach and a player. The coach has finally had the time to affect a player’s long term game, but the coach can only be effective if the player is willing to put in the work. Harron has started off this season well, and it wouldn’t surprise me if he gets moved up ahead of Schidlovksy in the not too distant future. For now, much like Chen at Wesleyan and Solimano at Amherst, it’s simply a luxury to have a player like that in the middle of the lineup.

TODAY’S MATCH: Williams @ Pomona 7pm EDT

Enough recapping, time for the fun part. D3West has already gone on record calling for Pomona to win its 817th 5-4 match of the season. Upon first glance I’m inclined to agree with him, but it will also depend on the lineup that Pomona throws out. Unfortunately, we just have no idea who will play what spot for the Hens because they literally change on a daily basis. At some point, I’m going to look back and total the season records for each player in order to get a better sense of the revolving door, but that will be saved for another day. For now, let’s just get to the matchups.

Doubles: Normally there is one doubles spot that is somewhat of a swing match, but today I think we’re lucky enough to have 3 DIFFERENT SWING MATCHES. That might just be my way of saying that I have absolutely no idea who’s going to win at each spot. Schidlovsky/Sadowsky vs. Hudson/Chadalavada at #1 should be a battle. The Hens #1 team can be somewhat streaky, but we really haven’t seen a ton from this Williams team yet. I think this is the spot that PP will be most favored to win, albeit slight. At #2 we should have Shastri/Raventos vs. Yasgoor/Kim. This #2 Hens has been crazy good this year, going 11-2 on the year. However, their second loss was in yesterday’s match vs. Midd, so we’ll see how the Hens respond against arguably the Ephs’ best doubles spot. Finally at #3 we should have the resurgent Bello paired with Simonides vs. Astrachan/Harron. Astro/C-Rad haven’t lost yet this year, but this #3 PP team serves bombs and is tough to break. Overall I’m predicting some tight doubles, with all 3 matches being close. #2 should be the “swingy-est” of swing matches, but I’ll take PP to go up 2-1 heading into singles.

#1: Hudson vs. Raventos. Both guys are fiery and this is an awesome first DIII test for Raventos at the top spot. Raventos was the hero last year, taking #5 7-5 in the 3rd to clinch the match for the Ephs, but Chuddy has come up big time and time again when the Hens needed him most. He went down pretty quickly to Smolyar yesterday (I think he was the first match off), so you just know he’s itching to get back out there. This should be a fun match, but I’ll go Pomona in 3-sets

#2: Schidlovsky vs. Yasgoor. Yaz has been the man this year, and I don’t see him having too much trouble with Schidlovsky. Alvin can be a streaky player, and on the right day can roll through anybody, but he doesn’t have a ton of experience playing this high in the lineup. Yaz will be just too solid for the Williams Junior. Pomona in straight sets

#3: Harron vs. JK1. John Kim didn’t play singles yesterday vs. Midd, but I’m assuming that has more to do with Pomona’s ever changing lineup than any significant injury. Kim has been filling in at #2 of late, but even Mbithi and Battle don’t quite stack up to the Blonde Bomber. I’m going Williams, but in 3 sets. 

#4: Shastri vs. JK2. Josh Kim got blown out by Palmer Campbell at #3 yesterday, but Kim’s task won’t get much easier today if he’s slotted in at #4. Realistically, Yosh has played more matches at other positions than #4, but I believe that’s where he fits into Pomona’s best lineup, so that’s where I’m putting him. I’ve always been a fan of Rohan and the local boy makes good angle, so I’ll take him to win today. Williams in straight sets.

#5: Sadowsky vs. Maassen. G-Mahney has been back on his game of late, and had a HUGE win, 7-5 in the 3rd, over Frons yesterday to help put Midd away. I haven’t seen Sadowsky play at all this spring, but I have a hard time believing the frosh will take down Maassen here. Pomona in straight sets.

#6: Weiss vs.  Low/Malech/Mandic/Simonides. We know what we’re going to get with Williams here, Weiss struggled last year, but it’s nice to have a former competitive #2 singles guy (he took down Yaz in 3-sets last year) at the bottom of the lineup. I’m going with the known entity here, and taking Lil Weiss (I had to throw it in somewhere, old habits die hard I guess) over whichever member of the revolving door gets the chance for Pomona today. Williams in 3 sets.

Welp, I guess those totals do add up to a 5-4 Pomona win. Bummer. Here’s hoping that Williams can pull off some of last year’s magic, and take down the streaking Hens. I feel badly, I’m always rooting against Pomona these days. I really love their team. They have an engaging twitter, give videos of match points, and seem like a friendly group, but region comes first. If the Ephs are to pull this one out, I think the best way for them to do it is by taking a doubles lead. It may sound like an obvious and simplistic formula, but they have the capability to do it.

Williams will finish up their break later in the week with Redlands on Saturday, Gustavus on Tuesday, and CMS on Wednesday along with some other non-DIII competition mixed in. I’ll be back to preview their weekend action, along with some other NE battles between ranked teams, at the end of the week. Until then, look out for a couple more articles with different topics, similar to the recent D3AS article on scoring formats. If you haven’t read that yet, I highly recommend it. Just click the little link at the bottom of the page above any of the (hypothetical) comments.