With West region Spring Breaks officially over, it’s that time of the season when the California teams shift gears into conference play. It’s no mystery who will be winning the SCIAC this year, but there are several important matches being played in terms of national rankings, Pool C standing, and individual competition. It’s always fun to see how the teams match up not that they’ve been basically comparing themselves to each other against common competition. On the docket this week, we have CMS vs. Redlands and Cal Lu vs. Whittier
#1 CMS vs. #15 Redlands
The Dawgs have already played 10 ranked teams this year (4-6), so we have a pretty good idea of what they’re bringing to the table at this point. They have good doubles depth with a relative weakness at the top, and that have a fantastic 1-2 punch in singles with depth difficulties. Leahy has provided a very nice boost at #6 singles for the Bulldogs, and they would be legitimately dangerous to Pomona if they could get Hunt back from injury.
All of that is a moot point in this match because CMS is just better at every position. In doubles, I see the Stags sweeping this one with relative ease. I would be mildly surprised if they surrendered more than 5 games in any proset, but you just never know with doubles. The two matches to keep an eye on here are the #1 and #2 singles matches.
Lipscomb is on a tear at the moment (in fact, he is 9-0 in outdoor matches after going 0-3 at Indoors), and, despite beating Alla, I think Wood is going to give him something he hasn’t seen yet this year in terms of ball-striking. Of course, that won’t be any secret to Lipscomb as he and Wood have played four times. Wood has won all three of those matches that finished, and the two were locked in a tight one in the SCIAC tournament last year when the match was called. Cummins is undefeated at #2 singles since Indoors, and he has a nice win over Nichols, but my enthusiasm for the guy was dampened by his loss to Dancu at the #1 spot. Nevertheless, Dorn has had some struggles lately, losing two of his last three and going 3 sets with Schommer from Whittier. Both guys need this win to make nationals, and I think Dorn will come away with a straigh-sets win. At #1 singles, I’ll take Lipscomb in the big upset to make the final score 8-1 for CMS.
#20 Cal Lu vs. #21 Whittier
This match is absolutely massive for Cal Lutheran. After losing to Chicago, there’s nothing keeping them in the national rankings right now, and they need to put a W on their resume before the next set comes out to avoid falling out entirely. Looking at their schedule, this match, a match against Cruz in two weeks, and a probable rematch with Whittier in the SCIAC championships are their only chances to make that happen.
Interestingly, these teams have a very similar makeup. They both rely very heavily on their #1 singles and #1 doubles, and I think that’s where this match will get decided. Against Chicago, Treacy and Nichols lost just their second DIII match of the season (to another Central region team, no less), and was probably what ended up costing them the 5-4 decision. Both teams have exhibited a lack of singles depth, so it’s really hard to tell which team is more deep than the other.
Prediction-wise, Cal Lu feels like a slam dunk at #2, but I’ll take Whittier in a close one at #3. I think Treacy and Nichols will bounce back from the Chicago loss to pick up a huge regional victory in a tiebreaker at #1 to give the Kingsmen the lead. In singles, I think Cal Lu at #2 and #4, but I’ll take Whittier at #2 and #5. That leaves Whittier needing both #1 and #6 to get a 5-4 win. Unfortunately, I think they drop the last line and lose 5-4 despite another Konstantinov victory. In order for Whittier to win this match, I really think he has to win both his matches, and I think Cal Lu’s experience in doubles is going to push them over the top in this one.
It should be another good match, and if it doesn’t go 5-4, I’m going to be gravely disappointed.