The Stag-Hen General Preview… Quad Box Style.

You’re about to witness history.  Never have we ever done a preview of this style before, with all 4 writers hopping in on a preview.  It’s a collaboration of epic proportions.  The way we’ll do this is ask a general question and have each of our writers provide their thoughts on it in a paragraph or so.  Given that this is a google doc, you may see some more of my tunafish adventures in here, or maybe some other stuff.  Anyways, to the real fun.  The Stag-Hen has always been one of those pseudo-nationals type tournaments. Hosted by two of the best tennis complexes in Division III, CMS and Pomona always put on a great tournament for us spectators and we couldn’t be more thankful.  The teams may change every year, but the results are nothing short of spectacular.  Not to mention, maybe CMS will have live-streaming (Dante Quazzo, where you at?) this year, which would be even more of a treat.  I know we’ll get a good amount of live stats either way so we can’t really complain.  Onto some of our burning questions of the Stag-Hen and our writers thoughts.  To remind you, the participants are as follows:

#1 CMS vs. #8 Swarthmore

#2 Wash U vs. #7 Carnegie Mellon

#3 Emory vs. #6 Gustavus Adolphus

#4 Pomona-Pitzer vs. #5 Bowdoin

Q: Writers, given that all of you will be represented in the Stag-Hen, can you please give me some of your keys to the tournament for each of your teams?  Feel free to be as descriptive as possible and you may provide your take on other teams if you so please.

D3AS: I believe that some of the other writers will be crossing over into my realm, but I’m glad that I will have the most represented region of the Stag-Hen.  That being said, one of them is Swarthmore, and they probably won’t get too much press in this preview.  Sorry, Swatters, you gotta prove yourself against the best of the best.  To me, there are a couple of keys to the ASouth.  Let’s start with Emory, in case you’ve forgotten the national powerhouse team from Atlanta.  The absolute key for the Eagles will be DOUBLES. We know that they’ve struggled so far this year on the Indoors courts, but does that necessarily translate to the outdoors?  Absolutely not.  However, they’ll need to shake off the memories of being swept by Hopkins and being down against Redlands.  The lineup they throw out there will be one of the questions of the tournament in my eyes.  If they can get 2-1 leads against a Wash U or a CMU, there’s no reason they can’t play their strengths and get wins at #2, #3, #5 and maybe another match to vault themselves back into the title talk.  They’ve had a good couple of weeks to prepare for this and I expect them to have a much better showing than last time.  They are the Eagles, after all.  For CMU, I think the keys for them are fatigue and “handling success.”  We know about their great week so far already.  But, they are potentially looking at 3 top 20 matches in two days, right after a 5-4 victory over Redlands.  I don’t want to say they’ll be tired, but they certainly have to come up with some second and third winds to play their best.  They potentially have the toughest schedule of the Stag-Hen, especially because if they lose they don’t have a gimme like Swarthmore waiting for them.  Secondly, as I mentioned, is handling success. This is a team that has struggled the past couple of years but is now back in the national conversation.  With a team made of three freshmen and others with no NCAA experience, this team needs to buckle down and continue to believe in themselves against the giants of DIII.  They’ll face off against teams that sometimes beat you before you step on the court (Wash U, Emory).  It’s time for the Tartans to take that next step and really put their statement out there.  For Swarthmore, there’s not much we can say.  What I’ll say for them is just to go out there and get as much experience as they can.  After an 8-1 beating at the hands of Skidmore, they’ll be in a field with 7 teams that would beat Skidmore.  That’s tough for this team, but it’ll be a great learning experience.  Hey, maybe they can steal a fatigue match on Saturday. Crazier things have happened here with this team….

D3West: CMS: play well? Looking at last year’s results, they never even really got close to losing in the regular season, except when Butts was out against Williams. Assuming they have their full lineup, they have basically 3 guaranteed wins in their lineup against anyone in the country (Butts, Dorn, and Kotrappa/Butts). The rest of their lineup is OK too.

P-P: doubles, doubles, doubles. The Hens have been extremely solid in singles, but their doubles has been a little streaky so far. If they can get up on Bowdoin, I think they win the match. Chuddy has taken a huge step forward, and Weichert is playing like the #1 he’s always been. Meanwhile, Chang and Kim provide some of the best depth in the second tier.

D3NE: Seeing as I only have one team in this shindig, I’ll be talking an awful lot about my Polar Bears. The first key has to be their mental state. They dealt with a couple of difficult losses to CMU and WashU earlier in the week, and now they NEED to recover. If Bowdoin drops their 1st round matchup with Pomona, they will need some serious NESCAC magic to make the tournament. Therefore if Bowdoin is down after doubles, they could fall into a bit of a desperation mode. While desperation mode can spur a team on, it is usually nothing but a detriment as players continue to fall into a destructive spiral of frustration. If Bowdoin can keep their heads (they are supposed to be smart kids afterall) then I believe the key to Bowdoin’s success will be their top 2 doubles teams. Their #3 team has proven to be their weak link (as much as a team can prove something after only 4 days) and Bowdoin will need to take a doubles lead, especially against Pomona, in order to allow their singles players to relax.

D3Central: Before I get into discussing the two teams from my region for this tournament, I want to at least bring up the notion of how good is CMS? Just to put it in perspective, they defeated Bryant University last night 8-1 in a match that was never really in doubt. Bryant isn’t a huge D-1 power or anything, but they compete well against D-1 teams ranked 50-75. Their most result loss to #62 Buffalo 5-2 makes me wonder where (if at all) would CMS be as a D-1 team. I know it’s early and the post season never has been CMS’s friend, but if they run the table, I want to bring up the greatest of all time-team talk now because right now, I don’t think they are beatable.

With that, Wash U and Gustavus represent the Central in the Stag-Hen and I hope they can represent it well. I am a bit worried about Wash U because it is typical of them to drop a match to a team not quite as good as they are early in the season (see Case Western last season) and they have yet to have a let down thus far. I think they are the better team than Carnegie, but not by much. Carnegie seems to have shored up the doubles problems of years past and I see whomever is up 2-1 winning this match. If Wash U wins, they will take on conference opponent Emory in all likelihood and that is always a battle. We have yet to mention it, but how good is the UAA tourney going to be (Wash U, Emory, CMU, Case, NYU, Chicago, Brandeis, Rochester)? Gustavus is going to be overmatched in this tourney except for when they play Swarthmore. They come in as the 6 seed, but we would all agree that CMU is better at this point. They need to play well in their strength in doubles to possibly pull an upset, but I just don’t see it happening.

Q: What first round match are you most looking forward to, and why? And how about player matchup?

D3AS: I think someone is going to take the CMU/WashU matchup (cough, Central), so I’m going to throw you a curveball.  I’m looking forward to the matchup between GAC and Emory.  Why?  Because it means so much to Emory’s success to get their doubles right and their confidence going.  GAC is a team that has always posed a problem to Emory because of their strong doubles play.  I said this in my keys to the tournament for them and I will again reiterate.  Doubles needs to get right for the Eagles.  This will be an awesome test for this team.  In singles, they should be able to take care of business at most of the spots, but GAC does have a fairly strong #1 and #2, two spots that were a bit iffy at Indoor Nationals, especially at #2.  Mosetick is a great player, but he struggled, and that’s the truth.  He’ll get a solid #2 match (if he’s still at that spot) here against Leisner of GAC who represents one of those average to above average #2 players.  I think Mosetick or whoever will be at #2 will handle Leisner, but it would be telling if they didn’t.  This whole paragraph is about looking into the future for Emory and seeing how far they’ve come since Indoors, because we know they were disappointed and have been training their asses off.

D3West: Well, since we all know who I’m taking to win the tournament, I’ll take some time here to talk about what is arguably the most important match in terms of NCAA implications. Now that CMU has direct wins over both Bowdoin and Redlands, they’re pretty much assured of a Pool C spot barring some sort of loss in a rematch with Bowdoin and then a collapse down the stretch. Wash U clearly doesn’t have to worry about making the tournament this year with their win at ITA Indoors. Therefore, the Pomona/Bowdoin match becomes absolutely huge. The Hens missed a big opportunity to bolster their resume against a tired TU squad, but they have still looked very solid early this season, especially in singles. Bowdoin hasn’t exactly come charging out of the gates, but their results against Wash U indicate that they are every bit the team we thought they were. Still, a bunch of close losses won’t do them any good come tournament time, and since they won’t be winning the NESCAC this year (seemingly), they absolutely need a signature Pool C win on their resume. This tournament is their last chance to snag one outside of NESCAC play.

D3NE: Seeing as I only have one team in the tournament, it behooves me to pick the Bowdoin/Pomona matchup. However I would not be surprised if all 4 writers pick this matchup. I’ve already stressed this, but Bowdoin absolutely HAS to have this one. Pomona has played some good/tight matches, but they have only played one match at full strength. Bowdoin is in a similar boat. Sam King has a nagging injury (word on the street is that his back is an issue) and although he played (and won) vs WashU, the Polar Bears need him healthy. There have been a rash of 5-4 matches of late, and it wouldn’t be much of a shocker to think this could end up that way. Because we are just fantastic, there will be individual 1st round match previews posted later in the week, therefore I won’t delve into too much detail now. All you need to know is, this match has the potential to be as good as any we’ve seen this year.

D3Central: Why didn’t anyone pick CMS/Swarthmore? I will give D3ASouth props for choosing the Emory/GAC match, but even if GAC sweeps, I still don’t think they have the fire power in singles to pull it off. Clearly I am going with Wash U/CMU as the match to watch. As I previously mentioned, doubles will be very important here. While I give the edge to Wash U, I think that may be more rooted from the history of the two programs and not the actual talent each team has. Doubles will be big and a lot will depend on Carnegie’s capability to bounce back from some tough wins they’ve had. Heaney-Secord laid an egg last night and got beat pretty badly. Wash U will probably be the most rested team in the tournament in terms of matches played. Carswell and Bush will be keys once again for the Bears and I see them fairing well. This will be a close match no doubt and it will be interesting to see how close and how that could affect the second round match against whomever that may be (likely Emory).

Q: CMS is obviously the favorite of the tournament, but who is your favorite to hold a runner-up trophy/best chance to surprise the Stags? (Don’t say Swat)

D3AS: Tough question, because the obvious favorite is Wash U.  You don’t pick against the Indoors winner, for the most part.  However, I honestly do believe that Emory has the goods to make it out of the section and make the finals.  Reasoning #1 is because Wash U has the toughest first round matchup with CMU.  If they get past that, which should be a battle, then they have to turn and play most likely Emory on the same day.  That’s a tough task but if anyone is up to it, it’s the Bears.  Reasoning #2 is because I think Emory is coming into this tournament with a chip on their shoulder.  They really were hit hard by that Indoors tournament and it’s never been in the Eagle DNA to continue down a slippery slope.  I like how the outdoor game translates for a lot of their players, especially at the top of the lineup with the Ruderman/Mosetick/Halpern trio.  Reasoning #3 (and I know West is going to say this) is the rivalry.  Everything about this rivalry seems to even out this match.  When it comes down to it, I have to go with the fresher legs and pick the Eagles. Come on, they’re from my region.

D3West: Well, there are really only three choices for runner up because P-P and Bowdoin are on the same side of the draw as CMS, and I don’t think anyone here believes GAC can beat Emory and Wash U on back to back days. Wash U is also the obvious choice to be runner up considering they have an indirect win over Emory and they just won Indoor nationals. Nevertheless, I’m gonna be a rebel and go with Emory as the runner up. They always seem to to do well at the Stag-Hen, and trying to pick the result between Wash U and Emory is pretty much useless because so much emotion goes into that rivalry match each and every time. I think Emory wins this one because they’re juniors will be more used to the raw intensity of the rivalry, and I don’t think Halpern was at 100% at Indoors. That could be two more matches for Emory right there. Needless to say, if I could pick an X-factor in this tournament, it would be him. I think he brings it in this tournament and picks up two victories for the Eagles in a 5-4 semifinal victory over the Bears.  If I could pick an X-factor for my life, it’d be the 45 year old bombshell I met on Tinder a few weeks ago.

D3NE: Ok fine, I was going to try and explain why Bowdoin could surprise CMS, but we all know that would only be half-hearted regional nepotism. I’m gonna say that the biggest threat to CMS is…CMS! Shocked? I know. I have that effect on women people. What’s the freakin name of the tournament people? STAG-HEN. That means the CMS team will be sleeping in their own beds. While some might see that as an advantage, I believe it to be something of the opposite. CMS at Walla Walla, bitchin. CMS with the opportunity to go out the night before Swarthmore (because hey, what can Swarthmore really do???) is just a recipe for trouble. Cop-out answer? Perhaps, but I do believe that without some STUDENT leadership, there is always a chance that dumb college kids will just act like dumb college kids. It happens.

D3Central: I truly want to pick Emory here, but I think they aren’t the Emory we all have come to expect. Szczurek hasn’t won an important match all year (lost to Christopher Newport at 3 singles). His win against Rosensteel isn’t impressive because that is Kenyon’s weakest spot. Their doubles has been disappointing as well and while I don’t think Gustavus will have a shot at them, they can definitely make Emory’s doubles confidence stay down. With that, I have to choose Wash U. Again, I don’t want to because as I mentioned previously, Wash U usually has a let down at some point in the season. I honestly think the let down could be against CMU and not Emory, but I can’t get behind Emory enough to choose them either. Can CMS’s B squad enter the tournament on the other half of the draw and get 2nd?

Q: Quick, provide your rankings prediction for the Stag-Hen and maybe a quick blurb on why.

D3AS: #1 CMS – no blurb needed

#2 Emory – Eagles stop their season bleeding and show us why you don’t underestimate them.

#3 Wash U – They just beat Bowdoin easy. What makes you think they wouldn’t dismiss Bowdoin or PP in a third place match?

#4 PP – With Bowdoin hurting, and PP on their home courts, this is the time to pull a nice upset for the fans.

#5 CMU – CMU gets a rematch with Bowdoin and shows us that they’re still legit. They’ll be tired, but they’ll fight for that win again.

#6 Bowdoin – The Polar Bears finish off a pretty disappointing Spring Break by losing to CMU twice in the fifth place match.

#7 GAC – I wish better for GAC, but they’re stuck in a stacked quad and I think they’ll be outclassed.  Doubles could save them, but they really have to bank on it.

#8 Swat – No brainer unless they pull that crazy upset.

D3West: #1 CMS – look at last year’s tournament. QED

#2 Emory – everything I just said about the match between Wash U

#3 Wash U – could easily be #2, but I definitely think they respond to the potential loss with a drubbing of P-P or Bowdoin.

#4 Bowdoin – as you can see, I’m picking Bowdoin to win the big first-rounder over Pomona odesperationon alone, if nothing else. I’m not about to pick them against CMS or in a rematch against Wash U (which I’m sure would be war).

#5 CMU – I think the Wash U/CMU match will be really close, but comparative results tell me to go with the Bears. It also seems like CMU’s 2-1 lead over Bowdoin might have been a bit of a fluke, and there’s no way they’re winning this one if they go down 2-1 to Wash U.

#6 Pomona-Pitzer – The Hens could easily beat either Bowdoin or CMU, but I think their best chance is against Bowdoin. Their singles has been so solid, and Bowdoin’s doubles have been vulnerable. Against CMU, however, the Tartans have the singles strength to completely neutralize P-P. Look for Chuddy to be a huge X-factor for the Hens this weekend.

#7 GAC – I’ll defer to Central on this one, but we might be severely underestimating GAC. The doubles powerhouse showed in their 6-3 loss to Wash U that they’re a serious competitor this year. Ultimately, I think their lack of outdoor experience costs them against CMU and Wash U.

#8 Swat – just lost 8-1 to Skidmore. ‘Nuff said.

D3NE:

#1 CMS – I don’t actually believe anything I wrote in the last question. #stagsonaquest

#2 WashU – Emory’s Indoors showing wasn’t simply a fluke, WashU’s young guns are playing very good tennis, I think they match up well with Emory because they do play good doubles.

#3 Emory – Even though GAC might propose a few matchup issues for Emory (as in, they know how to play doubles) I don’t see that upset happening. Emory/WashU should be a battle, but how can you not take Indoors into account. We haven’t seen much of Emory since then and I’m guessing they will be a popular “upset” pick. That being said, I would lean Emory closer to 4th then 2nd.

#4 Bowdoin – I wanted to pick them 3rd, I really did, but I can’t in good conscience pull the proverbial trigger. I do think they will beat Pomona, and I do think they will lose to WashU. Then I’m calling a 5-4 battle vs Emory. This tournament will remind us why we were excited for Bowdoin to begin with, they’re deep and they fight like hell. I think this team will build off their early season struggles. I don’t foresee them playing CMU again, but if they do…ohhh if they do…REVENGE!

#5 CMU – A 5th place finish wouldn’t be the worst thing for the Tartans, in fact they’d have to come away pleased. Tartan fans might be a little upset by that insinuation, but let’s be realistic, you’ve already accomplished any goal you came into spring break hoping to achieve. Wins over Bowdoin and Redlands are monstrous for obtaining that coveted Pool C spot. A win against Pomona in that 5th place battle would give enough wiggle room to please Flubber.

#6 Pomona-Pitzer – We’ve been making such a big deal of Pomona’s 1st round matchup, but realistically it matters a lot more for the Polar Bears than it does for the Sage Hens. Pomona will control its own Pool C fate when it plays Whittier, Redlands and Cal Lutheran later in the season. Direct wins over the rest of the SCIAC (excluding CMS of course) should be enough. Even though the Hens do have a shiny new twitter account, I don’t think they have the depth to beat the Polar Bears. It also depends on whether or not they will be playing their full lineup. Full lineup, and Pomona will challenge either Bowdoin or CMU.

#7 GAC – I feel as though GAC is kind of like your plain 2nd cousin in this tournament. You definitely don’t wanna spend much time with her at family reunions, but she does have many redeeming qualities. Her doubles are good, she has a 1st round matchup with a team whose doubles are weak, and she has been losing weight so far this year. She is sort of a project. But hey, if you get on board now then maybe you’ll have the “in” when she shows up next year as a smoking hottie (the equivalent of pulling the 1st round upset). After all, she’s only your 2nd cousin…

#8 Swarthmore – NOT GONNA HAPPEN! NO NOT GONNA HAPPEN! (HEY-HEY)

D3Central:

#1 CMS: These guys are good.

#2 Wash U: In a very distant 2nd place. I think they will get blown off the court in the final if they make it there. They are strong (1 and 3 doubles, 2-4 singles) where CMS is almost unbeatable.

#3 Emory: A semi-easy first round get’s them here. They will be a bit fresher to take on whomever in the 3rd place match.

#4 Bowdoin: This is 100% on if Bowdoin is at full strength. If they are, they 4th will be doable as they take out Pomona. If not, just switch the spots.

#5 Carnegie Mellon: I honestly think they are the 4th best team in the tournament, but they won’t get a chance to show that with a first round loss knocking them into the backdraw.

#6 Pomona: See Bowdoin

#7 Gustavus: I hope they surprise me, but I don’t think they have the ability to take out anyone unexpectedly. A solid win over Swarthmore will be a good showing for these guys.I don’t know about everyone else, but what they hell is D3Northeast talking about? 2nd cousin?

#8 Swarthmore: CMS’s B squad?

Hope you all enjoyed the first ever Quad-Box Preview, and I hope it wasn’t too repetitive for you.  It’s tough to get these collabo previews out in good time so we may have rushed this one a bit. I will also have a match by match preview of the first round that you can view before the tournament begins as well.  And if you haven’t remembered anything from the past 5 minutes of your life… I don’t like tunafish and this is all #ForTheBlog.