Regional Roundup – Conference Championship Edition!

Yes ASouth I agree, UAA over everything.  However, there are other tennis matches happening in places besides Sanlando, I wanted to talk about them, and what better place to talk about them than in Regional Roundup.  There are also some intriguing conference tournaments, including the ODAC, the SAA, and the CAC tournaments, which should all be closer than in the past.  It’s a beautiful day out right now, and I’m sitting out on my porch finishing up Roundup.  What could be better?  Before we get to the previews, here’s a quick note of the big regional results from this past week:

• #14 Amherst def. MIT 6-3
• #2 Bowdoin def. #23 Brandeis 7-2
• Cal Tech def. Chapman 5-4
• #21 Stevens def. #27 CNU 7-2
• #22 Swarthmore def. #29 Franklin & Marshall 5-4
• Rochester def. NYU 6-3
• #18 Gustavus Adolphus def. #37 Kalamazoo 7-2
• TCNJ def. #27 CNU 9-0
• Trinity (CT) def. #23 Brandeis 6-3

All right, let’s get into the championship previews!  Most of these have a clear winner.  For each school, I’m predicting the top spot I think they could finish in, the worst place I think they could finish, and where I actually predict they’ll finish.  Here we go.

#23 Brandeis: UAA Championships

Tournament dates: 4/21 – 4/23

Favorite: Emory

Best scenario: #4 (yes I know this is now out dated)

Worst scenario: #8

Prediction: #6

Summary: Well, after today’s loss to Wash U, we now know that the best scenario isn’t going to happen, but I just left it in to be dramatic.  Brandeis will take on Rochester tomorrow afternoon in a rematch of a March match that Brandeis won 7-2.  However, a lot can change in a couple of months, especially in doubles, and I’m not feeling as confident about the Judges as I was a month or so ago.  Check out my preview of this match in our UAA day 2 preview, but I went with the Judges for the 6-3 win.  If Brandeis wins, they will likely have their hands full with Case Western on Day 3.

#25 Washington & Lee: ODAC Championships

Tournament dates: Quarterfinals 5/1, semis and finals 5/7 and 5/8

Favorite: W&L

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #2

Prediction: #1

Summary: The Generals have won this conference tournament year after year, but they are coming off of a 5-4 loss to Virginia Wesleyan, their first conference loss in I don’t know how long.  The Generals should still be favorites in this tournament, but the Marlins (VA Wes) aren’t bad by any stretch.  They lost 5-4 matches to both F&M and Oberlin, two solid schools.  The Generals should rebound and win the conference tournament, but you never know.  Jordan Krasner is back in the lineup for the Generals, so with a few more matches under his belt, maybe he’ll turn that 6-2 in the third loss to Graham Wilson of VWC into a win.  This is definitely still a match to keep your eye on in a couple of weeks.

#27 CNU: CAC Championships

Tournament dates: 4/20 – 4/23

Favorite: Mary Washington

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #3

Prediction: #2

Summary: The “Mary Washington” conference as the CAC is commonly known was thought to be in danger this year with their struggles and CNU’s great play.  However, Mary Wash destroyed CNU 9-0 in season, and CNU has not rebounded, also losing 9-0 to TCNJ.  They did manage to get past Salisbury today, winning 5-1, so my Worst Scenario portion is a little out of date.  They will go back up against Mary Wash on Saturday, where at this point, they will be big underdogs once again.  David Reed is finally back in there for the Captains which is a good sign, but he’s been struggling a little, as he was down a set against Eric Spangler of Salisbury when the match was called.  It will be interesting to see if CNU can make a match of it against Mary Washington.

#29 Franklin & Marshall: Centennial Championships

Tournament dates: 5/4 – 4/8

Favorite: Swarthmore

Best scenario: #2

Worst scenario: #4

Prediction: #3

Summary: The Centennial Conference tournament is very intriguing this year, especially the seeding.  Swarthmore will be the #1 seed with a 6-0 record in conference, but Haverford and Hopkins are tied for 2^nd at 5-1.  F&M is 5-2, but they will play Haverford this Saturday.  Haverford also still has to play Swarthmore, so it’s very possible F&M could jump up to the three seed, which of course isn’t great as it means a date with Hopkins who they lost to 9-0.  Regardless, F&M battled Swarthmore really well just five days ago, losing 5-4 and winning two matches in third sets.  I think they are still clearly the third best team in the conference, and in a best case scenario, maybe they shock the world once by taking out Hop or Swat.  I can’t see them doing it twice though.  If they are the #4 seed, I don’t think they lose the 4-5 match against Dickinson, but if they are the 3, they will likely start with Hopkins.  F&M has had a nice year, but they will be hard-pressed to get that Centennial bid.

#30 Lewis & Clark: NWC Championships

Tournament dates: 4/23 – 4/24

Favorite: Whitman

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #4

Prediction: #3

Live Stats: http://athletics.whitman.edu/sports/2016/4/18/2016-nwc-tennis-tournament.aspx

Summary: The 2016 NWC Championships will take place this Saturday and Sunday at Whitman, and Lewis & Clark will be the #3 seed, facing off against #2 Pacific in the semis.  L&C fell 6-3 to Pacific back in March, and although they are ranked higher nationally due to the Whitman win, I still have them as a slight underdog.  L&C won their three singles matches all in super breakers in that match, and Pacific won in straights at #1 and #2.  L&C is capable of winning this whole thing given that they beat Whitman 5-4 just a couple weeks ago.  However, Whitman looks to be back on track after the win over Tyler and the close match with Trinity TX, and they have to be the favorites.

#33 Pacific (OR): NWC Championships

Tournament dates: 4/23 – 4/24

Favorite: Whitman

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #4

Prediction: #2

Summary: I won’t repeat myself here, but Pacific has had a very nice year under the radar, with a 17-3 record and wins over Oberlin, Cal Tech, Colby, and of course, Lewis & Clark.  These schools have battles every year and I will expect nothing less this Saturday.  As I said above, I like Pacific in a very close match, I’ll go 5-4.

#34 Sewanee: SAA Championships

Tournament dates: 4/29 – 5/1

Favorite: Sewanee

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #2

Prediction: #1

Summary: I thought that Sewanee had this conference completely wrapped up until they inexplicably lost to Oglethorpe, thus creating a three way tie atop the conference between those two schools and Birmingham-Southern, who beat Oglethorpe.  The seeds for the tournament will be based on the 4/28 NCAA rankings, so I’m not sure if Sewanee will be the #1 or #2 team.  Regardless, I do think they will rebound in this tournament, but it won’t be easy as the Petrels are a pesky bunch led by CJ Antonio.  Keep your eyes out for this match next weekend.

#36 Coe: IIAC Championships

Tournament dates: 5/6 – 5/7

Favorite: Coe

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #1

Prediction: #1

Summary: I don’t think anyone can beat Coe in the IIAC.  Coe has lost one match in conference, and by one match, I mean they won one match 8-1, and the rest 9-0, and that loss was a 9-7 doubles loss to Buena Vista where they sat a few guys.  The only team that could give them any type of a scare would be Luther, who they haven’t played yet this year.  I can’t see it happening though.  Go Kohawks!

#37 Kalamazoo: MIAA Championships

Tournament dates: 5/5 – 5/6

Favorite: Kalamazoo

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #1

Prediction: #1

Summary: Kalamazoo has dominated the MIAA longer than most people in this country have been alive.  They love their streak so much that they even have a section of their site devoted to talking about it.  This one section of their site is more robust than some team’s entire athletics web site’s.  Anyway, led by junior Branden Metzler, Kalamazoo is having a solid year, with wins over Oglethorpe and Wabash, and close 5-4 losses to Whitewater and Denison.  They have gone 5-0 in conference so far with five 9-0 wins, so I don’t see that streak ending this year.

#39 Oberlin: NCAC Championships

Tournament dates: 4/29 – 5/1

Favorite: Kenyon

Best scenario: #2

Worst scenario: #5

Prediction: #4

Summary: The NCAC is a good tournament, and I’m not just saying that to get you to keep reading.  Oberlin should be the 4 seed behind Kenyon, Denison, and DePauw, with Wabash as the #5 seed.  I don’t think Oberlin can beat Kenyon, but they lost 5-4 to Denison and 6-3 to DePauw, so both of those teams are definitely within their grasps.  They also beat Wabash 6-3 in a match featuring five 3-setters, so a win in the 5-4 matchup is not guaranteed either.  Oberlin has been getting better and better this year (except for the recent 9-0 Kenyon loss), and they should be confident about out-performing their seed next weekend.

#40 NC Wesleyan:

The Bishops have already won the USA South conference tournament with a 9-0 win in the semis over Piedmont and an 8-1 win in the finals over Methodist.  Congrats to NC Wes on their tournament berth.

MIT: NEWMAC Championships

Tournament dates: 5/7 – 5/8

Favorite: MIT

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #2

Prediction: #1

Summary: MIT still is not nationally ranked, but they battled Amherst really well just a couple weeks ago, so they should be big favorites in the NEWMAC tournament.  They take on Babo tomorrow afternoon so we will really see where both teams are at.  These two teams are far ahead of the rest and I can’t see another team winning it, at least not over MIT.

Babson: NEWMAC Championships

Tournament dates: 5/7 – 5/8

Favorite: MIT

Best scenario: #1

Worst scenario: #3

Prediction: #2

Summary: Babson hasn’t gotten that big win this year, keeping them from the rankings, but they’ve been a tough out for sure, falling 5-4 to Tufts and 6-3 to Brandeis.  They also had a solid 7-2 win over Colby.  They are definitely #2 in the NEWMAC and they should have their sights set on taking out MIT, but Coast Guard shouldn’t be counted out either.  They played Babo pretty close to a 6-3 loss, and although Babson is a pretty solid favorite, Coast Guard always has firepower and could definitely get hot.  I don’t think they are talented enough to beat MIT in the finals though.

Are there any other conference tournaments I’m missing that will be battles? Let me know in the comments!  (Yes I know I’m missing the SCIAC and the NESCAC, other writers have those covered.)  I know I’m missing the Liberty League tournament, it’s not until 5/7 so I’ll do a little write up on that next week.

Some of the other big matches coming up in the next week (and my predictions):

MIT @ Babson: Babson has the talent to keep it close, and Roberto Perez at #1 has been playing very well.  I think MIT is just too good in singles though.  MIT 6-3

#40 NC Wesleyan @ #28 Johns Hopkins: It’s been a while since NC Wesleyan has played a ranked match (besides TCNJ).  I think Hopkins is starting to play better and they will be fueling up for Swarthmore in the Centennial tournament.  Johns Hopkins 7-2

#29 Franklin & Marshall @ Haverford: Big match for Centennial Conference seeding, although both Swat and Hop are clearly tough matchups.  Haverford is not bad (they split singles with TCNJ early in the year) but I think F&M is more battle tested.  F&M 5-4

#23 Brandeis @ MIT: This is MIT’s best shot at breaking into the rankings.  Brandeis is struggling mightily in doubles.  Maybe they play well in the rest of UAA’s and turn it around, but I’m not sure.  Brandeis has done a great job at grinding down the Engineers over the years, but they aren’t grinding well at the moment.  MIT 5-4