Last weekend of Division III Regular Season tennis? Check. Pool C teams separated by one ranking spot in the latest ITA rankings? Check. One Pool C spot to be determined? Check. D3ASowth went to Happy Hour and is now writing this article a little bit buzzed? You got it. You know what time it is. It’s time to go through our Pool C Scenarios and see who has the best shot at the Pool C 7th spot. This time, there are almost 6 teams that are basically locked in, so this should be much easier. I will quickly go through some of the rules and rankings for all of you just in case you do not know what the hell is going on. I blame you for that, because this is my third Pool C article. Let’s get with the times, people! Pool C gets kind of boring sometimes, so I’ll try to make this thing interesting. I don’t know how the last team getting into the damn NCAA tournament isn’t interesting, but who knows. Might be the alcohol talking. Let’s get into some of the rules and scenarios really quick so you all understand.
Pool A – This is for winners of Pool A Conferences. Pool A Conferences 7 or more teams (I checked this shit in the handbook that I was issued, so don’t come at me saying that it’s not 7 teams. It’s in the handbook. That thing normally costs 20 dollars). Winners of these conferences get automatic bids.
Pool B – Independents, non Pool A conferences, people that are in LALA land, stuff like that.
Pool C – Non-winners of their Pool A Conference that are looking for a true “at large bid.” These guys are ranked high but their conferences are just slightly too good.
Got that? Good, because I’m going to probably post that at another time anyways. You know what, I’m not going to go through all the teams because I don’t think that’s a good use of my few hours outside of work. If you have questions about why certain teams aren’t in the Pool C, you can comment in the article. Let’s get to the nitty gritty. There are currently four Pool C spots that are absolutely locked in. Those teams are Carnegie Mellon, Amherst, Emory, and Case Western. These teams are locked in because they essentially will not falter for the rest of the year, or simply have no more matches. We will go through the rest below.
Basically In – >90% In
Pomona Pitzer – Currently ranked #10 in the country (above Williams, FYI), Pomona essentially has to do one thing to get in. They have to win their first round against California Lutheran in the SCIAC tournament coming up. While that is certainly not an easy task with CLU playing host for SCIACs, Pomona has the talent and the drive to do so and I do not think they falter. Basically, if they win that match, they are into the tournament and will be the #2 seed in the West Region bracket. However, if they lose to CLU…. They will have to beat Redlands in the third place match and hope for the best. I think they have enough wins on their resume to get through to the NCAA tournament but they could definitely help one of these bubble teams get into the tournament. Count on Pomona winning and not making this a question.
Williams – The defending champs see themselves sitting at #11 in the country after a head scratching loss to Skidmore. Luckily for them, the ITA committee determined that this was probably a fluke and Williams was actually top 12 worthy. While I will doubt that, that doesn’t mean that they aren’t Pool C Worthy. With wins over Pomona, Redlands, CLU, Bates, and Bowdoin, this is a team that shouldn’t really be worried about their Pool C standing. Essentially, they are in. They only have the NESCAC tournament left this weekend where they will play the #6 seed Tufts. If they lose this match, they could run into some trouble. However, they beat Tufts last time by the score of 7-2 and there really is no reason that we should think they will lose a match to the upstart Jumbos. Unless Brian Tan plays some crazy jedi mind tricks on them, they will come away unscathed and with a fairly solid #2 seed in the NCAA draw. Don’t worry about Williams, because I highly doubt they get knocked out. Now, onto the fun Pool C stuff.
Last One In – 60% Chance In
Bowdoin Polar Bears – Polar Bears! Bowdoin has really decided to make things interesting the past few weeks by inexplicably losing to a Bates team that has lost to everyone under the Sun at this point. Bowdoin currently is starting people at #6 that I doubt will win against any top 15 team, let alone top 10. They only have wins against Pomona that is keeping them floating above the rankings. Thing is, their recent play has not been good and they are currently on the brink of missing the NCAAs after two pretty damn good years, especially if we take a soup cracker out the equation. Bowdoin has already lost to Williams and Bates this year, which is deflating their ranking down to #16 in the ITA. If any dark horse team is going to make the draw, Bowdoin will be the one they pass like Ricky Bobby on a day he pisses excellence. So, what do the Polar Bears need to do to get in? Well essentially, they need to f*cking win today (May 2nd, its already May damnit). They are playing Trinity CT at 3:30 PM so tune in because D3Northeast is going to be live tweeting. If he’s not, then we have to seriously question his dedication to a life with no life and writing for the blog. If they win that, they will keep their #16 ITA ranking no matter what and be ahead of all the teams that are chasing them. Seems like a pretty damn good deal. Read D3Northeast’s preview to determine what you think is the correct course of action for the Polar Bears. I got like 28th in the Ojai Tournament Bracket challenge so you’re probably smarter than me anyways.
First Two Out – 35% Chance In
Redlands – The reason I put Redlands ahead of Chicago is this: they still have some tennis to play ahead of them. If they beat CLU in the SCIAC third place match, they might be able to chalk their previous loss up as a fluke and then move up in the rankings. They have a nice resume builder match against Whittier in the first round of SCIACs, and obviously they have to win that thing if they want to end their season on the CMS courts (NCAAs) instead of ending their season on the CLU courts. I’d personally prefer the CMS courts, because at least you get your meals paid for. Been there, done that. So let’s assume they beat Whittier, and they play the loser of the Pomona/CLU match. If they WIN over CLU, they will avenge their terrible loss there and be ranked appropriately. This gives them a better resume than Chicago and basically discounts their earlier loss to CLU, which in turn discounts that indirect loss to Chicago. Essentially, if Redlands wants any chance in the tournament, they need to beat Whittier and beat California Lutheran. Good news – Tom Suchodolski just tweeted me a picture that Nick Cummins is ready to go for SCIACs. That’s a big boost to Redlands chances.
[BREAK – I fell asleep while drunk writing this and now I am continuing in a sober state. Nice before and after for you guys]
Chicago – Again, the reasoning behind Chicago being behind Redlands is that Chicago’s season is over. They are now the team that “needs help” as professional sports broadcasters like to say. Chicago’s resume exists almost entirely on the fact they beat California Lutheran, which is in turn putting them ahead of Redlands and CLU. Redlands can erase this advantage by taking the third match of the three match series this weekend if it happens. What Chicago needs to happen is that Bowdoin loses to Trinity CT today at 3:30, and Redlands loses to either Whittier or California Lutheran at the SCIAC tournament. If both of those things happen, then Chicago can sneak into the last spot in the Pool C landscape.
Praying to God – 5% Chance In
California Lutheran – Some people would say that California Lutheran has a better chance than 5% in given that they are ranked #18 in the country, but I would beg to differ here. CLU is another team that only has the SCIAC tournament left and their biggest match is against Pomona Pitzer. If they beat PP, they would split the season series with the Sagehens. However, CLU has already lost to Chicago, which is really crushing them right now. So, even if CLU beats PP, PP might get knocked out and that would put CHICAGO into the Pool C bracket. That essentially means that CLU has to beat PP AND CMS to get into the tournament, which we basically know isn’t going to happen. Another way that CLU can get in is they beat PP and then the NCAA committee strongly talks about late-season play (which has happened before) and lets CLU in over Chicago. I don’t expect them to have this conversation anyways, but CLU is not sitting pretty right now.
Alright, alright, alriiiiiiiiiiiiiight. If you didn’t want to read all those scenarios, I have a brief outline for you below as to who gets in in what scenarios. Hopefully it helps all of you that are reading this on a team van or something. That’s probably most of you actually. These are the only teams that have a shot of getting in.
Pomona Pitzer
“In” Scenario – Pomona beats CLU in the SCIACs.
“Out” Scenario – Pomona loses to CLU in SCIACs. NCAA committee does ‘shrooms and throws resumes out the window and only looks at late-season results.
Williams
“In” Scenario – Williams beats Tufts in the first round of NESCACs.
“Out” Scenario – Williams loses to Tufts in the first round of NESCACs. Bowdoin beats Trinity CT in their match OR CLU beats Pomona-Pitzer OR Redlands beats CLU AND NCAA Committee penalizes Williams for losing to Skidmore and Tufts in the same season.
Bowdoin
“In” Scenario – Bowdoin beats Trinity CT in the first round of NESCACs.
“Out” Scenario – Bowdoin loses to Trinity CT in the first round of NESCACs. CLU beats Pomona in SCIACs OR Redlands beats Whittier and CLU/Pomona in SCIACs AND Bowdoin loses the argument amongst the NCAA Committee that they should be in based on resume.
Redlands
“In” Scenario – Redlands beats Whittier AND beats California Lutheran AND Bowdoin loses to Trinity CT at NESCACs.
“Out” Scenario – Redlands loses to Whittier OR Redlands loses to California Lutheran OR Bowdoin beats Trinity CT.
Chicago
“In” Scenario – Bowdoin loses to Trinity CT AND California Lutheran loses to Pomona AND California Lutheran beats Redlands.
“Out” Scenarios – Bowdoin beats Trinity CT
California Lutheran
“In” Scenario – California Lutheran beats Pomona Pitzer AND beats CMS. Bowdoin loses to Trinity CT AND California Lutheran beats Pomona AND NCAA Committee values late-season success.
“Out” Scenario – Bowdoin beats Trinity CT.
I hope that was pretty clear for all of you. I like the Jekyll and Hyde act that my writing did in the middle there, but hey you gotta keep it interesting sometimes. I’ll try and provide some thoughts on rankings later on today as well as my thoughts on the ASouth rankings. Maybe after today’s matches, we’ll get some more clarity on who’s going to be our last two Pool C competitors. ASowth, OUT.
WRT to LoveD3Tennis’s comments about P-P v. Williams, there are always going to be mitigating factors. P-P had 4 freshmen in the line-up against Williams, one playing for the first time. They also had several match points. Frankly the match could not have been any closer on the courts Williams won, save for possibly 2nd dubs.
Judging by Universal Tennis Ratings (UTR), the players on P-P are finishing the season stronger than they started (+2.5%), Williams slightly weaker (-1.6%). Right now they are even, but trends favor the team on the rise.
Different courts, new players, indoors vs. outdoors, some players/teams on the rise, others trying to regroup — That’s what makes D3 tennis so interesting.
For SCIAC, first round is PP v. Oxy and CLU v. Chapman. Second round, PP v. CLU, if they both win.