It’s been quite a week in Blog Land, and I’m afraid that the NE isn’t getting enough airtime. The West has the Ojai, the Central and the Atlantic South have UAAs, and all we in the NE have is the most important weekend of the regular season coming up. NESCAC seeding is totally up for grabs, as is the final spot in the conference tournament. D3AS has been pretty anti-NESCAC over the past few days, putting out bold claims like the UAA will get 4 teams into NCAAs. While I’ll admit that Bates’ loss to Tufts on Wednesday does knock them out of Pool-C contention, Bowdoin is still in a good spot to get that final NCAA bid. Looking ahead to this weekend, there are 5 important NESCAC matches on the docket. Friday at 2:30pm: Tufts @ Bowdoin. Friday at 3:00pm: Bates @ Amherst. Saturday at 1:00pm: Middlebury @ Amherst. Saturday at 2:00pm: Bowdoin @ Williams. Sunday at 1:00pm: Bates @ Williams. Your wish is my command, and I’ll be doing nightly recaps/previews over this weekend. A confidant has helped me run the numbers, like the true nerd that he is, and in doing so he determined all the possible NESCAC scenarios. Pretty fancy stuff. It’s too much to post here, but as we work our way through the weekend, I’ll start listing the possible scenarios for all you die hards. For today, we have an updated outline of what each team needs to do to make NESCACs, and of course predictions for the two matches going on later this afternoon.
AMHERST: Clinched a NESCACs berth. Host Bates today and Middlebury tomorrow. If the Jeffs win out, they’ll be the #1 seed. If they lose to Midd, they’ll be the #2 seed. If they beat Midd but lose to Bates, they’ll still get the #1 seed bc of the head-to-head tiebreaker over Midd. As for a prediction for today, I like Amherst to take down Bates 8-1, sweeping the singles.
MIDDLEBURY: Clinched a NESCACs berth. Travel to Amherst tomorrow. Plain and simple, beat the Jeffs, get the #1 seed. Fall at Amherst, get the #2 seed. Check back tonight for a preview of this match, which has BIG TIME NCAA implications as well. Midd gets the short preview today, knowing the match with Amherst tomorrow will get some play.
BATES: Still fully in control for the #2 seed, the Bobcats are at Amherst today, and at Williams on Sunday in the classic Western Mass swing. If Bates takes out both teams (a tall order, I know), and Midd beats Amherst, Bates will still end up as the #2 seed and earn a first round bye. This however, seems quite unlikely given that the Bobcats were just downed quite convincingly by Tufts. If Bates falls to Amherst, Tufts clinches a bid (in the comeback story of the season) and leaves Bates, Williams, and Bowdoin to fight for the final spots. Bates is still in danger of missing NESCACs, and if the Cats drop their final two matches, they will need Tufts and Williams to beat Bowdoin this weekend in order to still gain a bid. Prediction for today’s match, Amherst def. Bates 8-1.
BOWDOIN: Quite a roller coaster for the Polar Bears this season. Early on I thought this team was a legit top-8 squad, but over the past few weeks they haven’t looked anywhere close. They can right the ship and still end the year as the #3 seed by taking down both Tufts and Williams this weekend. The Polar Bears will be favored in both matches, but lately that seems to mean nothing to the 2nd tier of the CAC. All Bowdoin has to do is win either of their matches, and they clinch a spot in the postseason. However, if Bowdoin loses both matches, they could (incredibly) end the year without making the trip up to Midd for the conference tournament. Prediction for today’s match: Bowdoin def. Tufts 6-3, overcoming a doubles deficit to clinch a berth in the conference tournament.
TRINITY: Pretty boring really. The Bants have locked up a bid to NESCACs, but after their loss to Williams no longer have a shot at a Pool-C bid. They don’t play this weekend, but could finish either as the #3 seed (if Amherst beats Bates and Tufts beats Bowdoin today) or the #4 seed (most other scenarios). Trinity could end up playing anyone of the non NESCAC-elite in the 1st round, and will be a virtual toss-up with all of them. Man, NESCACs are gonna be fun!
TUFTS: Ah yes, the team D3AS “woofed” at after their loss to after their April Fools Day loss to Brandeis. Welp, jokes on all of us, bc if Amherst beats Bates today, Tufts clinches a bid to NESCACs, regardless of the outcome of their match with Bowdoin later this afternoon. It’s an excellent turnaround for a Jumbo team that was due. They have a ton of talent, and the roster shake up seems to have done them all the good in the world (who wouldn’t love having Jacobson down at #5?) If Tufts beats Bowdoin today, the Jumbos could start the tournament as high as the #4 seed (they will lose the tiebreaker with Trin), but if they lose to the Polar Bears they could end up all the way down as the #6 seed (just slipping past Williams in a tie breaker due to the head-to-head). Kudos to Tufts on their resilience. I think the Jumbos should be able to take a doubles lead on Bowdoin today, and with the way Gupte and Jacobson are playing, a sweep should be more than enough, but we’ve seen Bowdoin come back from doubles deficits all season long. Given that Bowdoin needs to win, and they’re at home, I’ll take the Polar Bears over the Jumbos in a battle of wonderful mascots, 6-3.
WILLIAMS: WIIIIILLLLLIIIIIIIIIIAAAAAAAAAMMMMMMMMMMSSSSSSSSSSS. Wonder how many times that joke has been made? At least 3 by me alone. A Knight’s Tale is a pretty phenomenal movie. Really any movie with Paul Bettany is a great movie (VISION!). But I digress (what else is new?) Just like every other team out there, Williams controls their own destiny this weekend, as the Ephs get to host two matches against teams fighting for their postseason lives. One of the three teams, Williams, Bowdoin, or Bates will be following the live stats of NESCACs from their dorm rooms. It’s not too complicated, but stick with me here. If Williams wins both matches, they’re in and can reach as high as the #3 seed (by virtue of a head to head tie break with Trinity), if Williams loses both matches then they’re out, end of story. The fun stuff comes if the Ephs split their two matches. If Williams beats Bates, they’re in no matter what; but, if they beat Bowdoin and lose to Bates, their fate rests in today’s Tufts vs. Bowdoin match (which I know is counterintuitive because those matches are after this one, but deal with it). If Bowdoin beats Tufts, Williams beats Bowdoin, but Bates beats Williams, then Tufts would get the #6 spot over Williams due to a head-to-head tiebreaker. If Tufts beats Bowdoin, Williams beats Bowdoin, but Bates beats Williams, then Bowdoin is the odd Polar Bear out, and Williams is in as the #6 seed (earning a favorable matchup with #3 Trinity in the 1st round). Fun stuff, right?
PHEW! I’ll be back tonight to update you on today’s happenings, and predict some fun Saturday matches. Until then, enjoy an excellent day of UAAs (NOW), OJAI (11am start), and NESCAC play (afternoon).