Mary Washington Travels West

It’s about that time of year where we get into the official “Spring Break” schedule.  Spring Break is almost like our very own March Madness, unless you’re Bates, when it’s just a depressing blow to your season.  Sorry, Bates fan.  Today marks the first slate of Spring Break action as Mary Washington embarks on their week-long trip into the depths of the California region.  They’ll have three top quality matches on their schedule and history tells us that this might be one where they surprise us.  In fact, one of their matches will take place at 2PM (PT) today, I believe.  Correct me if I’m wrong.  Below, I’ll go through the three matches the Eagles will play throughout Spring Break and some implications from them.  Overall, none of these matches are truly that important for the Eagles, as they should win their conference at the end of the year, but it will definitely impact seeding and where they are sent for NCAAs.

Mary Wash @ Cal Lutheran, Today, 2PM PT

I’m not going to put rankings in the title name because at this point the rankings are basically useless.  The inaugural UMW/CLU match is one that has seen the Eagles upset the Kingsmen in surprise matches in the past.  This match presents the Eagles’ best chance for an upset on their Spring Break trip as CLU is reeling from an 8^th place finish at Indoors.  Thousand Oaks is a notoriously tough place to play in, so keep that in mind when you go through your expectations for this match.  Despite this being a good opportunity for the Eagles, I think this match will be tough for them because the two teams are strong in the same places.  In doubles, both #1 teams are very strong with Nichols/Treacy (CLU) going against Charles/Carey (UMW).  Charles and Carey are a good team, but I don’t think they have the type of doubles firepower to beat a very strong CLU team that has been playing together for a good 1.5 years at least.  This isn’t even mentioning the fact that both CLU guys are playing great doubles right now and they have the home court.  I’m taking CLU at the #1 spot, winning with a couple of breaks and a final score of 8-5.  #2 doubles is where CLU has a clear advantage.  The UMW #2 team of Griffin/Gilmore had a tough time against NCW’s #2 and now they have to take on Cardenas, who is one of the very best players in the country.  No contest for me at #2 and I’m taking the Kingsmen.  Luckily at #3, UMW has the experienced team of Blahkin/L-J going up against a team with a few question marks in Handley/Johannson.  The #3 team for CLU might even be changed after a fairly underwhelming Indoors performance.  Either way, Blahkin/L-J have good enough doubles fundamentals and experience to lose, so I’ll take them in a 8-5 or 8-6 victory.

Moving onto singles is where you’ll see some similarities between the two teams.  Both teams are very proud of their top 2-3 singles players and follow that up with fairly suspect depth at the bottom of the lineup.  Thing is, CLU’s top of the lineup features 3 very strong players in Cardenas, Treacy, and Nichols.  All three of those guys proved competitive in their singles matches at Indoors.  Cardenas at #1 should be able to hit through Carey and I think that match will be a quick one in the Kingsman’s favor.  The match of the day will be at #2, with Charles of UMW taking on Treacy of CLU.  Charles is a player with a lot of touch and different shots, which should give Treacy something to think about while playing.  This will be a match in which both guys are pretty fresh and I like Charles’s game too much to go against him.  I think he’ll take this one in a 3-setter.  At #3, the experience of Nichols should be too much for the junior Gilmore of UMW.  Gilmore is a bit outplaced at #3, and he’ll have his hands full with Nichols who will be sure to grind him down on his own courts.  I expect a tight first set from adrenaline, but eventually a score of 7-5 6-2.  The bottom three spots are going to very interesting to see.  CLU proved at Indoors that their bottom 3 is a lot better than we expected.  I think the Eagles are going to have to win all 3 of these spots to even have a chance of winning.  They should have the advantage at #5 singles, where I’ve always been a fan of Blahkin and his outdoors game.  At #6, I really like the way Fergus Scott of CLU has been playing and he definitely has an advantage there.  CLU and UMW should split those two matches.  #4 is the true unknown as I only know the game of L-J, but I’m really unsure of how he’s playing right now.  In a toss-up, I’ll go with my own region and the experience of L-J.  Overall, I’m predicting the final score to be 5-4, but honestly it’ll be one of those not so close 5-4’s.  Most of the matches should be pretty clear before things get tense.

Mary Washington @ Pomona-Pitzer, Thursday, 4PM PT (correct if wrong)

This is another match I’m really looking forward to.  Other than Bates, PP hasn’t played anyone for the most part.  This should be a better indication of where the Sagehens are at than where the Eagles are.  Truthfully, a top 15 team should be able to beat Mary Washington right now in the 6-3 or 7-2 range.  This will be a good test especially on their home courts.  If the Eagles want to have a shot at this upset, they’re going to have to really bring the rain in doubles.  Pitzer showed they were potentially weak in doubles by dropping 2-1 to Bates earlier this year.  The surprise of that match was Bates taking the #2 and #3 doubles spots, which to be honest aren’t the Bobcats’ strength.  On the right day, the Eagles can come into Pomona and potentially sweep the doubles play.  They have strength at #1 doubles with Charles/Carey and should be able to take that match if they come through on clutch points.  I don’t see that doubles match being a blowout for either team so it will, as always, come down to execution.  I always have my faith in Charles when it comes to doubles so let’s go with the Eagles there.  #2 doubles will be the real game-breaker for UMW.  I don’t think they have a very strong #2 team, but luckily PP struggled there too.  Thing is, that home court and outdoor advantage really worries me, especially against a team like the Sagehens.  PP has been shuffling the deck at #2 so far but lost to Bates and were close with Chapman which is not encouraging.  Still, I’m taking the Hens here to avoid the sweep.  This one may come down to a tiebreaker and be the last match on – the difference between a sweep and a 2-1 deficit.  Obviously, I believe that the Eagles have the advantage at #3 doubles as well.  Definitely.  That should be the only easy match in the doubles slate as UMW takes that 8-4.  I’m taking 2-1 UMW into singles.

Singles is where the Hens will try and take control.  They have advantages up and down the lineup, starting with their rock Chris Weichert at #1 singles.  He should have his way in this match with his solid groundstrokes, and take it in straights.    At the #2-4 spots, P-P should have the advantage.  Normally I’d like Charles at 2, but Yasgoor is coming off an impressive victory versus Planche of Bates, who I think is a better player.  With Maasen and Wei at #3 and #4, you get two players that I think are clearly better than their Eagles counterparts.  The two spots up in question in my mind are #5 and #6, especially #6.  Chang is a bit of an unknown for the Hens and was tight with a weaker Bates player.  Meanwhile, Griffin of UMW should have enough talent to take that match.  Taking UMW at #6.  Lastly will be Blahkin at #5 versus Kim of P-P.  This is a really big match considering the scores that I predicted.  Kim of P-P is debuting in singles this year, which is a question mark.  However, Blahkin’s play seems to always be a question mark and I don’t think he comes through under the pressure.  I think P-P takes 5 singles matches en route to a scary 6-3 win over the Eagles.

Mary Washington @ Redlands, 2PM PT on Saturday

For obvious reasons, I’m going to re-evaluate this preview after the two matches happen this week.  It doesn’t make sense to make an early prediction when there is more data to be had! I’ll be sure to update you fans via twitter when I have a prediction, and it’ll probably be posted in one of our weekend previews.

Rooting for the Eagles this week, good luck to you guys – hope you can pull off an upset.