Bracketology Scenarios – ASouth Style

With all the talk about Pool C happening and us nearing the end of the regular season, it’s about that time for the Blog to start sending out a ton of Bracketology articles.  Since the Guru has limited time, he hasn’t been sending out the different scenarios that could happen, which tends to mislead some people into thinking that the Bracketology is the end-all be-all of the NCAA Tournament seeding.  The fact of the matter is, we don’t even know which teams are going to make the tournament through Pool C.  We can give our best guess, but we can never be totally sure.  OR, we could give you three separate scenarios with different teams getting in.  That’s what I’m here to give you today.  In the below, you will see the following constants in all 3 scenarios:

*Wrtier’s Note: Please note that the “As the Crow Flies” picture on this article is a total joke and do not put any weight into that at all.

Assumptions

Pool A teams are assumed by the current leader or winner of their conference.

Pool B teams are as follows: UW-Whitewater, UC Santa Cruz, and TCNJ

Pool C teams are as follows: Bowdoin, Wash U, CMU, and two teams indicated in the scenario title.

Another important assumption here is that all the #1 seeds put in hosting bids. You will see that not all of them get the coveted host site, but host bids are really important.  There have been years where teams don’t put in host bids (whether due to preference, men’s/women’s logistics, or whatever else.  This is assuming that they all do so in order to make this exercise easier.  I obviously can’t predict who is going to put in host bids because I don’t follow every coach around 24/7.  

Bracketology Scenarios

Okay! Let’s get to the three different scenarios that seem to be possible at this time.  Of course, there are endless scenarios with so many teams involved, but we only work in the realm of reason. As always, the little asterisk denotes the regional host.

Scenario 1 – Chicago & Case make the tournament

1. Emory, Swarthmore/Hopkins, NC Wesleyan*, Virginia Wesleyan, Messiah
2. CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Cruz
3. Midd*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Hunter, Juniata
4. Bowdoin*, Stevens, MIT, Yeshiva, Southern Maine, Ramapo
5. Wash U*, UW-Whitewater, Sewanee, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Edgewood
6. CMU*, Kenyon, Wilkes, Nichols, Colby-Sawyer, Gwynedd-Mercy
7. Chicago*, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, Rose-Hulman
8. Case*, Trinity TX,  Mary Washington, John Carroll, Grove City, Franciscan

*denotes regional host

This is the scenario I personally think is the most possible, but the world does not.  Me against the world, just the way I like it.  Anyways, Case and Chicago are your two final seeds that get in, meaning they are supposed to get your toughest #2 seeds.  Fortunately for Chicago, they get Gustavus because GAC is in the middle of nowhere and can’t go anywhere but Chicago or UW-Whitewater.  Both the seeds of Chicago/Case can flip flop, but it doesn’t really matter.  GAC is going to Chicago.  It seems as if UW-Whitewater is locked into going to Wash U assuming they host as well.  I think one of the biggest losers here is CMU, who has to play their rival Kenyon in what should be a pretty damn good match.  The last one was 5-4 and damn, I would not want to play a 5-4 match in the Sweet 16. Also interesting to point out is that Emory will not be hosting and instead will be going to NC Wesleyan.  Reason being is that Swarthmore can’t get down to Emory and I have to put them somewhere.  If Hopkins makes it, they also can’t make it to Emory within 500 miles.  That makes the NC Wesleyan Bishops the lucky host.

Scenario 2 – Chicago & Williams make the tournament

1. Emory, Swarthmore/Hopkins, NC Wesleyan*, Virginia Wesleyan, Messiah
2. CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Cruz
3. Midd*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Hunter, Juniata
4. Bowdoin*, Stevens, MIT, Yeshiva, Southern Maine, Ramapo
5. Wash U*, UW-Whitewater, Sewanee, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Edgewood
6. CMU*, Kenyon, Wilkes, John Carroll, Grove City, Franciscan
7. Chicago*, Gustavus, Coe, Grinnell, Rose-Hulman
8. Williams*, Trinity TX,  Mary Washington, Nichols, Colby-Sawyer, Gwynedd-Mercy

*denotes regional host

This is the scenario that most of the readers and voters seem to think is the most likely.  If Williams gets the 8 seed, they’re getting Trinity TX. I’m almost sure of that considering TTX is the highest #2 seed plus they can really travel anywhere that makes sense.  Everything else in the bracket stays pretty much the same, because everyone that can go to Case Western in the first bracket can go to Williams in the second bracket.  Great times when that happens.  I think this is the most likely bracket with the teams we’re talking about.  If we’re talking potential Elite 8 matchups, those two middle matchups look really damn juicy.  Middlebury/CMU and Bowdoin/Wash U could be on their way to 5-4 contests in what will be big UAA vs. NESCAC battles.  Also, don’t sleep on Chicago righting the ship at NCAAs as they did last year as they take on the defending champions CMS.  I think this is the bracket I might be rooting for, but unfortunately I don’t think it’s the bracket that will come to pass.

Scenario 3 – Case Western & Williams make the tournament

1. Emory, Mary Washington, NC Wesleyan*, Virginia Wesleyan, Messiah
2. CMS*, Whitman, Tyler, Cruz
3. Midd*, Skidmore, TCNJ, Hunter, Juniata
4. Bowdoin*, Stevens, MIT, Yeshiva, Southern Maine, Ramapo
5. Wash U, UW-Whitewater*, Gustavus, Kalamazoo, Carthage, Edgewood
6. CMU*, Swarthmore/Hopkins, Sewanee, Wilkes, John Carroll, Grove City, Franciscan
7. Case Western*, Kenyon, Coe, Grinnell, Rose-Hulman
8. Williams*, Trinity TX,  Nichols, Colby-Sawyer, Gwynedd-Mercy

This might be the least likely scenario to come to pass, but it is a scenario that I think is feasibly possible.  I’m a UAA homer at this point so I think Scenario 1 is the most likely, but at this point who knows.  This was actually the hardest bracket to put together because I lost a central team in Chicago that could take Gustavus.  I had to move Gustavus to go to UW-Whitewater where Wash U will act as the #1 seed.  That left a #2 seed spot open, meaning that a #3 seed had to move up into the #2 realm.  That happened to be Mary Washington, who can’t go to Emory, so I’ve made NC Wesleyan the home point again and made UMW the #2 seed for the Eagles there.  CMU now gets the Swarthmore/Hopkins winner, considering both can go there and both teams should be ranked higher than UMW if they win their conference.  The NE teams have been pretty much locked in depending on who you want to send where.  Williams again gets Trinity TX since they are the highest #2 seed.  They also get world-beater Nichols, who caused quite a stir the last time they were in Williams bracket.  Again, the #7 and #8 seeds are interchangeable but should not change the bracket all that much based on geography.  This is a total mind jumbler (I wanted to say something else) but this is my best guess.

To conclude, I would like to point out that there are potential scenarios within scenarios and these are not indicative of what 100% might happen if the teams get in.  There are plenty of schools that can go to multiple places, but I follow the same NCAA criteria that they do, so these have a good shot at being decently accurate. I think these three scenarios present the most fair draws possible given the teams that are getting in and that is what we are going for, right?  I’m really glad that this year UW-Whitewater is a strong #2 seed because that means Wash U can’t get away with geography as they have in previous years (Coe as a #2 seed).  Again, lots of tennis is still to be played and Williams has the chance to up their seed if they beat a damn good team in Middlebury or Bowdoin (or play themselves out as well).  These are not set in stone but are more to give you a good idea of what could happen. Got it? Got it. ASouth, OUT.