I got called out by a commenter (one of my favorites) to give you guys an ASouth update and I have to tend to agree. I have been really focusing on the national level and letting Regional take the reins considering I only focus on the four teams this year. However, I’m going to take some time of my day to get you all a FULL ASouth update, with some recaps on teams, predictions for individuals, and just giving my thoughts on things that I haven’t gotten to all that much this year. I apologize to all those that are looking for more ASouth coverage, and I hope this article does well to quench everyone’s ASouth thirst. Let me start with the team by team recaps first with my quick thoughts (you have basically heard them all year) and then get to the individual portion. I think everyone’s been looking for the individual portion from me and we will definitely go in depth about that stuff. Let’s go by ITA rank in a quick team-by-team review.
#1 Emory Eagles
Much like their national ranking, Emory relies on a few results the whole year to have the #1 ranking in the ASouth. After their loss to Middlebury, their #1 seed in the UAA all of a sudden became up for grabs because they simply don’t have that many wins. I think they will take the 1 seed in UAAs but it will be one hell of a tournament for sure. Emory’s season is literally all about the postseason so there is not much to write about to be honest. They’ve done enough to get a #1 seed and need to finish the job. We will see where they are at the end of UAAs.
#2 Carnegie Mellon Tartans
Carnegie Mellon has definitely had an up and down season. They remain a very dangerous team on the national level, but they also remain a team that seems to be unable to put everything together on the same day. I used to think the bottom of their singles lineup was the strength of this team. However, it looks like this is a well balanced team nowadays with Alla playing well again. The one thing that is the most exciting about the Tartans is their two most recent doubles sweeps of Mary Washington and Hopkins. As D3NE tweeted, if the Tartans have gotten their doubles together, other teams may need to watch out. Watch out for CMU as a sleeper team in the UAA, similar to last year.
#3 Johns Hopkins University
Hopkins came into this year with a lot of high hopes, considering they had 3-4 seniors in the lineup that were looking for even more recognition. This season has not been that for the Blue Jays and the seniors can a bit of the blame for that. Tanner Brown has been in and out with injuries, which really hurts considering he is probably the Jays emotional leader. Lim has been inconsistent this year and Hwang has been disappointing. Even with the rise of MVP Buxbaum and Joachim into the #4 spot in the lineup, Hopkins has not had a signature win yet this year and just recently got dropped by CMU 7-2. Hopkins is going to need a late season burst if they are going to reach their high goals for the year.
#4 Mary Washington University
Mary Washington is having the exact season I predicted for them. They are solid top to bottom in both the singles and doubles lineups but don’t wow you with talent at any single position. They have beaten who they need to beat and are not prone to upsets, which has let them hover in the 15-20 range all year long. They will absolutely go on to win their conference and end up as a #2 seed in Kenyon, CMU, Emory, or somewhere around there. If you like a steady team that doesn’t mess things up, Mary Washington is your team this year. Very nice season for the Eagles.
#5 Sewanee Tigers
Sewanee has shown some improvement this year and that is really what I was looking for out of them. They have a talented lineup for a lower tier team all throughout the lineup, especially at the top with guys like Schober, Winkler, Roddy, and others. Their signature win this year came against Washington and Lee, a team they previously lost to 5-4 last year in the hopes of getting into the top 5 in the region. This is a team that needs to keep working on improving because they are still getting dismantled against the top teams (9-0 to CMU, Emory, 8-1 to Wash U). Next year, maybe they should make it a goal to get a better effort against one of these top teams to at least put them in position for a surprising upset. Until then, they will move to the NCAA tournament hoping for another NCAA win and even more good experience.
#6 Swarthmore
Swat has actually been a pleasant surprise this year with the additions of some young guns at the top of the lineup. This was a team trending downwards until the newcomers came in and it looks like they have a good base of talent moving forward. With hopefully another solid recruiting class next year, the Garnet are hoping to get back into the top 30 consistently. They have wins this year against W&L and Depauw which are their signature wins so far. Both of those teams would have beaten them last year or did beat them so this season has been a step forward for sure. Now it is time for their young guys to continue improving, because graduations will still hit and you simply don’t want to lose ground on your peers if you’re fighting to stay in the top 8 of your region.
#7 Washington and Lee
This has really been a down year for Washington and Lee, mostly due to injuries and other circumstances. Michael Holt and Chris Hu have both missed time for whatever reasons, leaving the Generals with only one true player who has had experience at the big time level. Krasner has been a bright spot and is now slated in a better position considering his teammates are back. They have no chance to avenge their losses to Sewanee and Swarthmore, so I guess we wait until next year!
#8 NC Wesleyan
Watch out for the internationals. GO ahead and take a look at their roster this year. You’ll see thay have their regulars, but the most important thing is their doubles looks pretty solid top to bottom. They have a billion international freshman on the roster so they are definitely hoping to continue to improve despite losing one of their best players (Kjellberg) after this year. D3West and I were actually talking about this team and the potential they could have as a sleeper moving into next year. I’m sure they have more international players waiting in the wings so who knows how good they can get. Despite a slow start to the season, they’ve seen some traction against their opponents as of late and can definitely hang their hat on that. Also, it helps to play in a cupcake conference.
Singles
I’m going to take a page out of D3Central’s history book and go through singles and doubles the way he did, trying to find what the likelihood of all the different players is. Let’s start with some locks.
Locks (100%)
Michael Buxbaum, Hopkins – The MVP Buxbaum has already won the ASouth fall ITA with a ton of good wins including Carey and Alla. He’s also gotten a few great out of region wins in Krull, Solimano, Carswell, Warren Wood, Pierre Planche, and John Larkin of Swarthmore. His only blemish comes against the streaking Alla of CMU. Buxbaum is going to be easily into the draw and will be a contender for the national title when we get there.
Robert Kjellberg, NC Wesleyan – Hey y’all, guess who is having the quietest undefeated season at #1 singles that you’ve ever seen. That’s right, its none other than the main Battling Beeshop Robert Kjellberg. With in-region wins over Carey and Ruderman as well as out of region wins over Bertolini (Depauw), Veltman (Denison), Planche (Bates), and Heinrich (Stevens), Kjellberg has brought the goods this spring season and could potentially be a seed in the NCAA tournament. If not, I fully expect him to make a deep run. Maybe he’ll win me the bracket challenge.
Abhishek Alla, Carnegie Mellon – I was tough on Alla in the beginning of the year as he started off Indoors very poorly, losing to Ruderman as well as Heerboth. Since then, the dude has been lights out. He’s taken out Krimbill, Heerboth, Krull, and Hudson outside of the region. He’s also taken out Schober and Carey within the region. If I were a seed then I certainly wouldn’t want to see Alla’s name in my part of the bracket. With his strong out of the region wins as well as a few big in region wins, Alla is clearly a lock and will be playing in the NCAA tournament.
Alex Ruderman, Emory – Ruderman is not enjoying the success this year as he did last year, which is not really saying much because last year he was sweet. He has wins this year over Alla, Carswell, Antonio, Telkezhidev, and Leung. However, he has suffered losses to Krull x2, Smoylar, and most importantly, Kjellberg of NCW. His ITA win and win over Alla makes him a lock for the tournament, plus the only person he can lose to the rest of the way in region is Alla, who is already a lock. Ruderman will not get a seed in NCAAs but will be a guy to keep watch for as he has went three sets in most of his losses, making him a tough out in his senior year.
Highly Likely (95%)
Christian Heaney-Secord, Carnegie Mellon – The great news (or not so great) is that the ASouth is a very shallow region, as you all know. This means a ton of #2 singles players will get in and potentially even a #3 singles player (you will see later). Heaney-Secord seems to save his best play for in-region play, where he has beaten Halpern (Emory), Roddy (Sewanee), Gilmore (UMW), and Hu (W&L). He has no bad out of the region losses despite losing to Yasgoor (PP), Drougas (Case), and Geier x2 (Kenyon). Christian also has wins against Entwistle (GAC), Bragg (Bowdoin), and Skinner (TU). Honestly, Heaney-Secord is probably a lock and he probably just needs to win his first round UAA match against Brandeis to be a 100% lock.
Surprises (70%)
Eric Halpern, Emory – I was expecting to look at Halpern’s record this year and be blown away, putting him at a highly likely position. Thing is, I wasn’t. He had a good fall tournament where he reached the finals of the ITA which might be keeping him afloat right now. He has a loss to Heaney-Secord in the region and that’s pretty much it. His out of region wins are Putterman (Wash U), Sanderson (Skid), and Gupte (Tufts). Putterman has had a good year but his only indirect in the ASouth is Dubin (Hopkins) who doesn’t factor into this equation. Halpern is sitting at the #8 spot right now and I’m not sure if he will make it in at this point. His fall ITA holds him up but he has beaten no one in the top 8 as of right now. EDIT: After seeing what everyone else has done, Halpern has a good shot considering Mosetick is also doing well.
Rafe Mosetick, Emory – The ASouth has such lack of depth that Mosetick is going to be firmly in the conversation to make nationals. Mosetick has gone undefeated in all DIII play this year at #3 singles, taking out Zheng (CMU) along the way. He also has two wins over Sikh (NCW) who plays #2 for the Bishops, so you can take Sikh out of the equation. His biggest win, however, came this weekend when he took out Avery Schober of Sewanee. Schober was previously ranked #6 in the region so this makes Mosetick’s season legit and more likely to get in. In addition, his win pushes Halpern up considering there is no way a #3 is getting in over his team’s #2. If Mosetick can escape UAAs by either not playing CMU or simply not losing at #3 singles, I think he has a very good shot to be in. It helps that Browning is the ITA ASouth chair as well, so let’s chalk Mosetick’s candidacy up to a very likely.
50/50 Shots (50% duh)
Tyler Carey, UMW – Here’s another player that I feel is high in the rankings on reputation alone. Carey has only beaten Krasner of W&L in the region, who is ranked somewhere below 15. He does have some nice out of region wins over Bertolini (Depauw), Veltman (Denison), and Planche (Bates) but I am unsure if that’s actually anything worth talking about. He has many out of region losses to boot, notably Heinrich (Stevens), Cardenas (CLU), Hudson (PP), Lipscomb (Redlands), and has two in-region losses to Kjellberg and Buxbaum. Oof, I’m not sure if Carey is going to get in. He does play #1 singles though!
Avery Schober, Sewanee – First off, message to Sewanee. Can you get a statistics page where you can see everyone’s performance? Every other school has it. It makes it really easy to see who has played who in the region. Instead, I am clicking through boxscores. Either way, Schober has had a solid in-region season, beating Flores (Berry), Holt (W&L), Albers (Salisbury) and Reed (CNU). The biggest win is Holt, who notched a win over Alla of CMU. However, Schober put himself in a predicament this weekend by losing to Mosetick (Emory), which could potentially drop him out of the top 8. Additionally, he took a loss against Antonio of Oglethorpe as well. I personally think Schober will be either last one in or first one out, but the losses to Mosetick and Antonio makes this very dicey.
CJ Antonio, Oglethorpe – There has been some discussion of Antonio in the comments section lately because of one very big Oglethorpe fan, but the fandom is not for naught. Antonio has taken out Sprinkel (Coe), Budd (UTT), Delgado (Wabash), and most importantly, Schober of Sewanee. He took Ruderman of Emory to 3 sets. However, he has one loss that is really bringing him down, and that is to Flores of Berry in the beginning of the season. Without this loss, Antonio would be in the top 8 for sure. If the ITA committee decides to value late season play more than early season play (which they normally do), Antonio has a better than 50% chance of making it. CJ has to avoid an upset against Oxford (if he loses he doesn’t deserve to make it honestly) and he has a good case over Schober and Carey. The Ruderman win would have put him in, but he fell short. We’ll see where he ends up but personally, I say get him in.
Others
I will list the other people that may be considered but will most likely not make it/not have a case to make it.
Sebastian Sikh, North Carolina Wesleyan
Michael Holt, Washington and Lee
Stratton Gilmore, Mary Washington
Inigo Flores, Berry
Everyone else
Predictions
- Robert Kjellberg (NCW)
- Abhishek Alla (CMU)
- Michael Buxbaum (Hopkins)
- Alex Ruderman (Emory)
- Christian Heaney-Secord (CMU)
- Eric Halpern (Emory)
- Rafe Mosetick (Emory)
- CJ Antonio (Oglethorpe)
9. Avery Schober (Sewanee)
- Tyler Carey (UMW)
Doubles
Locks (100%)
Ruderman/Wagner, Emory – The Emory duo has had a great year, where they’ve taken out the following #1 teams at the time of play – Wash U, Trinity TX, and Skidmore. They also won the Fall ITA which gives them a big leg up. In region, they beat the previous #1 from CMU, #1 from Sewanee, and the #1 from Oglethorpe. They did take a loss to Kjellberg/Sikh from NCW but that will not hurt their NCAA candidacy, only their potential seeding. Consider this team a lock.
Highly Likely (90%)
Heaney-Secord/Duncan, CMU – This has been an up and down team this year and one that also had some injuries in the beginning of the year. They’ve beaten Trinity TX, Pomona, and Case all outside of the region which is nice for them. Within the region, they suffered a tough loss to W&L (Holt/Hu) but were able to negate that a little by beating Carey/Charles of UMW. I think this team is at a stronger position than the Mary Washington or NCW teams despite taking a loss vs. W&L.
Slightly Less Likely (80%)
Carey/Charles, Mary Washington – The Carey/Charles duo has a couple of wins that make them look legit. They have their NCW win over Kjellberg/Sikh as well as a win against the West ITA winner Hudson/Chadalavalada (spelling issues pardoned). They’ve taken out Swarthmore #1, W&L #1, and CNU’s #1 to strengthen their resume and stave off potential takers of their spot. However, they did duck Salisbury last time and didn’t play against them. Seriously? Woof. Also, it looks like UMW doesn’t have the CMU loss at #1 on their statistics page either. They have a big match against Hopkins this weekend that will be interesting to watch.
Kjellberg/Sikh, NCW – The NCW international duo is currently being held up by a big in region win over Ruderman/Wagner of Emory. They have lost to Carey/Charles (UMW) and have two out of region losses in Stevens #1 and Depauw’s #1. This duo doesn’t have the big resume that I expected but I am unsure if anyone else does to knock them off the top 4.
Wild Card (25%)
Hopkins #1 team – The reason why I just list Hopkins #1 team is because they have jettisoned Buxbaum/Walsh from the top of the lineup and inserted Dubin/Joachim there instead. This team for sure needed to beat CMU last week and were unable to do so. They do have two matches remaining – against UMW and NCW, no less. If they win both, they could knock out the NCW team or the UMW team depending on who the committee picks. NCW has the bigger win in Emory #1, so the UMW duo could get knocked out.
Predictions
- Ruderman/Wagner (EU)
- Heaney-Secord/Duncan (CMU)
- Kjellberg/Sikh (NCW)
- Carey/Charles (UMW)
- Joachim/Dubin (Hopkins)
- Spangler/Albers (Salisbury)
ALERT!!! A QUICK MARY WASHINGTON/HOPKINS PREVIEW!!
As you may or may not know, Mary Washington and Hopkins will be battling this weekend on the beautiful UMW campus in what measures up to be a pretty meaningless battle. Both will be #2 seeds in the NCAA tournament when they make it, it just depends if one’s going to Emory and where the other one is going. Let’s do a quick preview of where I think each team will win their matches and why.
Mary Washington Advantages:
If Mary Wash is going to win this match they will have to take advantage of both doubles and the middle of the lineup. Last week was a tough go of things for both these teams in doubles and this is going to be the decider of the match. Carey/Charles have a great shot against a newly formed Hopkins team that I simply don’t have a lot of faith in. Additionally, the #2 team of Buxbaum/Walsh for Hopkins has been downright bad lately and this is another opportunity match. All three of the doubles are tossups and if UMW can take 2 of 3, they are in good shape.
Additionally, UMW lucks out because their strengths actually match up with the weaknesses of Hopkins. UMW is strong at #2-4 singles, with Gilmore, L-J, and Griffin manning those spots. Dubin is a beatable #2 for Hopkins and Hwang has simply fizzled at #3. Griffin vs. Joachim at #4 should be a doozy and probably the decider match if UMW takes a doubles lead. I don’t see UMW winning at #1, 5, or 6. IF Mary Washington is going to win this one, they need to take two doubles and singles spots #2-4 for a 5-4 victory.
Hopkins Advantages:
We kind of already went through it but Hopkins needs to find their doubles prowess. They are playing on the road so it will be tough, but they should have advantages (albeit slight) at #2 and #3 doubles. They simply have more talent down there. Hopkins has shown that they can stick with good teams and honestly they were only a few games from going up 2-1 on CMU last week. I personally think Hopkins will take #2 and #3 doubles as they have the Lim/Brown combo at #3 and a former ITA champ Buxbaum/Walsh at #2. When I say former, I mean just this year. This should be an advantage for the Jays but last week’s performance was pretty underwhelming.
The good news for JHU is that their advantages in singles are pretty clear. I don’t think Buxbaum loses to Carey 8 or 9 out of 10 times. Brown should not lose to Charles by the same odds as well. #6 is kind of up for grabs right now considering Lim and Reiter are anything but guarantees, but they should be able to take out Hurwitz despite everyone splitting with Kirkov (CMU) last week. There is experience down at #6 and if it comes down to that I’m picking Hopkins.
Overall Prediction:
Hopkins by the score of 6-3. I think they take #2 and #3 doubles, #1, #5, #6 singles, and a surprise win from the struggling Hwang at #3 singles as well.
I think I’ve sufficiently been through the ASouth today and even got you a match preview to boot. I’m sorry to the lower ranked teams in my region as I did not cover everyone in depth, but hey, take what you can get I guess! ASouth, OUT.