2015 Men’s Season Preview: #7 Johns Hopkins

After writing two previews already this past week, the creative juices are flowing and I’m on a roll.  I seriously have to pick up the slack for our dear friend D3Northeast, because he’s having issues with his previews.  The man has two previews a week for the next few weeks, and he was complaining about not having enough work earlier this year! What a chump.  Well, I’m double dipping and giving you my second Hopkins preview in the past few days.  This time, I’ll be more in my wheelhouse and get you the Men’s preview.

Coach: Chuck WIllenborg, 10^th Season

Location: Baltimore, MD

Preseason Ranking: #7

Twitter Handle: @JHUTennis

Overview

Oh, the Jays.  Johns Hopkins has always been full of talent and promise over the past few years, but never have come through when it counts the most.  They’ve suffered through some devastating losses in the Elite 8.  Unfortunately, they have not reached the final 4 in recent past like their women’s counterparts.  Could this be the year?  After losing in a very competitive match to CMS in the quarterfinals of NCAAs last year, Hopkins comes into this season ranked #8 despite having probably their most successful season in 2014.  The reason why is that they got a pretty tough draw and drew a fresh Stags team at home.  Honestly, if the Jays didn’t take a lot out of the Stags in that first match, I’m not sure if Amherst would have taken home the trophy.  But that is all in the past now and Hopkins is now looking to notch that Final 4 that has eluded them for a while.  The Jays have a great mix of potential senior leadership as well as up and coming talent, so I really do have a lot of faith in this year for them.  Coach Willenborg has always been a steady and well-respected coach who gets a lot out of his guys, and I expect no less from him this year.   He’s even turned up his competitiveness (just my opinion) in recent years as the program has improved, which I love.  Maybe that extra fire will bring something out in what will be the last year for a couple of their storied players.

Lineup Analysis

#1 Singles, Michael Buxbaum

Universal Tennis Rating: 12.71

Michael Buxbaum is a name that everyone should start getting used to hearing – not just for this year, for the next three years.  After ending the year on a tear last year, he picked up where he left off by running through the ITA ASouth draw, defeating defending champion Abhishek Alla in the final.  This was not a surprising win as he had beaten him last year, but still extremely impressive as we all know Alla is no pushover for sure.  Buxbaum then moved on to the semis of Small College Nats, where he eventually lost to Heinrich of Stevens and controversially defaulted from the 3^rd place match.  Anyways, Buxbaum clearly belongs in the conversation for the top 10 in the country and it will be interesting to see how he comes back from the offseason.  So far, it’s been only improvement for the young sophomore.

#2 Singles, Ben Hwang

Universal Tennis Rating: 11.60

Hwang, unlike some of his other teammates, has been a model of consistency for the Jays.  The guy has made the semifinals of ITAs so many times that I’ve lost count.  But, I know it’s been at least 2 times, probably 3.  With his extremely solid ground strokes and serve, you can see why he’s so consistent.  I’d say Hwang was an average #2 last year and that’s mostly because of the variability of playing at #2.  There are so many guys that can turn it on for a day (ex. Halpern, Heaney-Secord) and Hwang does not have as much big game potential as those two.  He’ll take his lumps but you know what he brings everyday to the court, and the Jays are thankful for that.

#3 Singles, Tanner Brown

Universal Tennis Rating: 11.97

If Ben Hwang has been a model of consistency for the Jays, Brown certainly hasn’t in the past couple of years.  That’s not necessarily a bad thing, but it is a strange thing considering Tanner’s game.  He’s a very consistent player who mixes in some solid volleys and returns, and overall he’s an extremely tough player.  However, the past couple of years have resulted in a few disappointing losses but also a few really impressive wins.  Just last year he beat Nikolas Marino of CMS, who was considered the best #3 in the country.  When Tanner is really playing well, he’s really tough to stop, especially if he’s getting pumped up with his teammates.  But, he’s struggled with injuries the past couple of years and getting back his game in the spring.  He had a week ITA in the fall, so I’m not sure where his arrow is pointing.  Tanner should be wary of fellow senior Noah Joachim really pushing him for his spot in the lineup.

#4 Singles, Noah Joachim

Universal Tennis Rating: 11.82

If the Hopkins tennis team is going to take a huge leap this year, it may be because Noah Joachim has found a singles game.  Out of nowhere, he had a massive ITA where he beat Kirkov of CMU, who happened to be one of the best #4s in the country last year.  He went three sets with #1 singles player Tyler Carey of Mary Washington as well.  That’s a big tournament for a player who has played minimally in the singles lineup and is well known as a doubles specialist.  Just to ensure that we were noticing, he beat Russell Einbinder of Amherst in the dual match post ITA.  Joachim has really taken on a heavy responsibility this summer and fall and looks poised to have his best season yet.

#5 Singles, Jeremy Dubin

Universal Tennis Rating: 11.69

Jeremy Dubin is the sophomore that people seem to forget because the shadow of Michael Buxbaum is a rather large one.  Dubin had an excellent year last year as his big game and serve surprised a lot of people at the #4 position.  This year, I currently have him slated at the #5 position, which should really scare a lot of teams across the nation.  Barring a sophomore slump, this guy should be one of the very best in the nation.  If you don’t believe it, he crushed Andrew Schiener of Amherst 2 and 1 this past fall at #5.  While Schiener may not be a true #5, beating a player at the bottom of Amherst’s lineup so handily should signal to the rest of the nation that Dubin is going to be a force.

#6 Singles, Erik Lim

Universal Tennis Rating: 11.68

How the mighty have fallen.  Once considered one of the best #4 players in the nation, Lim has fallen all the way down to the bottom of the lineup.  I believe he didn’t play in ITAs or the fall this year, so he was either injured or studying abroad.  I find it hard to believe that this is the same kid I touted as one of the most clutch players in the nation just a couple of seasons ago.  One thing that Lim can bring is his extreme competitiveness and gamer attitude, which oftentimes pumps up the rest of his team.  Having Lim at 6 would be a big win for Hopkins.  He just has to get there, first.

Doubles

Doubles has gone from a relative weakness to an absolute strength for the Jays in the past two years.  Much of that is due to the dynamite combination of super sophomores Michael Buxbaum and Emerson Walsh.  Dubbed “Peaches and Cream” by the tennis team, this is a team that has won the past two ITAs and has had some huge wins in nationals.  I consider this team a force at #1, but also a team that will most likely continue improving for the rest of the season.  The rest of the lineup will most likely be filled out by the tandem of Joachim/Garcia, who had an excellent year at #3 last year as well as a potential combo of Brown/Hwang/Lim.  Brown and Lim are the chemistry team, but again, it depends on Lim’s play this spring.  Brown/Hwang is a good combination but I am worried about Hwang’s serve and volleys in the doubles atmosphere.  Either way, this is going to be a tough Jays lineup from #1-3 as there are no easy outs that you see on some competitors.  Good luck sweeping this team.

Schedule – Key Matches

Indoor Nationals.  As always, that’s the name of the game.  Hopkins will travel to Minnesota to be the #4 seed at Indoors, where they draw a date with the always upstart Case Western Spartans.  This will be uncharted territory for the Jays because they will finally be a favorite at the start of Indoors.  I won’t speculate as usual on the match, but I think the Jays would be really disappointed if they didn’t bring home a top 3 trophy.  They have to believe they are better than one of Emory or Trinity TX, who are the teams they will most likely play in the third place match if they get there.  They better not overlook the Spartans, who are probably training hard for another huge year.

After Indoors, things really slow down for the Jays.  That being said, they actually start their year by hosting none other than CMS on their home courts.  This will be the first match on their newly christened tennis complex, and what a match it will be.  CMS knocked them out of the Elite 8 last year, but Hopkins absolutely gave them a scare.  They’ve proven to be beatable and maybe CMS gets affected by the colder temperatures and traveling on the road.  If you don’t give Hopkins a chance in this one, you should probably think again.  Luckily for the Jays, this is a match they can absolutely afford to lose.

The rest of the year really presents one big match and a couple of other small matches that Hopkins should take care of.  The big match will be the annual rivalry against Carnegie Mellon, which will take place this year on the road.  Big match for seeding purposes in NCAAs, but not a big match for Hopkins as they will in all likelihood win their conference.  Hopkins also gets Bates at home as well as Mary Washington and North Carolina Wesleyan at home.  In the end, the story will be the same, as Hopkins will win their conference and make the tournament as most likely a #1 seed.

D3ASouth’s 5 Keys To Success

1. Can the players who made strides this fall keep it up? – I’m mostly looking at Michael Buxbaum and Noah Joachim with this question. These two guys have made major improvements in their games over the summer/fall.  Buxbaum notched his first ITA title and showed why he could be an MVP of this season if he keeps up this level of play.  Joachim turned himself from a decent #6 player on most teams to potentially a strong #4.  It’s teams that get unexpected contributions from their players that really make people start to notice them.  Other guys who you should probably keep tabs on are Jeremy Dubin and Emerson Walsh, as they had great falls as well.
2. The Ghost of Erik Lim – I mentioned this in the lineup analysis, but Erik Lim is going to be a big factor in Hopkins success. We know the talent this guy has and the big game experience.  He simply hasn’t showed up in the past year and it’s starting to get tiring.  Lim is in his senior year, so I would expect him to take one final swan song of a season and finish it strong.  That is, if his priorities are in the right place.  Lim can turn this team into one of the strongest teams in the nation by shoring up the #6 spot.  If he doesn’t, they’ll have to go with other relatively unproven options like Weissler or Emerson Walsh.
3. Seniors, of course – In what looks to be a theme in the ASouth this year, this is a team that is heavily laden with seniors. I mean the potential #2, 3, 4, and 6 guys could all be seniors.  Not to mention both the #2 and #3 teams in doubles as well.  Will this group of seniors find the extra gear and bring Hopkins to the Final 4 they have never achieved?  It looks like it has been a good start with Joachim upping his game, but this will take a full team effort.  You don’t beat a team like CMS or Wash U without getting an otherworldly performance from an upperclassman player.
4. Simple as the Draw – Last year, the NCAA draw really shafted the Jays as they got the undefeated #1 team in the country on their home courts. It was a tough way to end the year as they got a great effort from a lot of their players, but were unable to overcome the huge odds against them.  They need to focus this year on getting a seed that doesn’t draw the top 2 in the first round of the Elite 8.  They have the talent to beat any of the other teams in the draw, but I don’t trust them to beat the top 2 without some things breaking their way.  The best part about making a Final 4 is that you get another match even if you lose.  Hopkins should really be aiming for their best season with so many seniors, and the draw will definitely determine how far they can potentially go.
5. Indoors or Bust – Since I don’t believe that Hopkins can beat CMS, even on their home courts, Indoors becomes the most important tournament in the Jays season. They only have a match against CMU that really has a lot to do with seeding, so any slip up in Indoors will put them potentially at the #8 spot again.  That would be such a huge disappointment and would probably drive a stake into the Hopkins season in the Elite 8.  Let’s hope this team is training hard this next month.

Conclusion

Hopkins is another team of mine that has the outside of chance of throwing the top 2 teams for a loop at the end of the year.  The combination of talent and senior leadership is present, there is momentum on the team, and the team should be motivated for sure.  Hopkins has the experience now in NCAA tournament play and none of these guys is known to shy away from the big moment.  Indoors will be extremely interesting for this team as they could really use a performance like last year’s.  I’m personally a fan of this Hopkins team, so watch out for them potentially pulling another upset somewhere along the lines this year.  ASouth, OUT.