The other writers seem to like my preview style (and who wouldn’t) so I’m sticking with it. This regional is admittedly less interesting than Middlebury’s, but there are a few potential sparks here and there. Big question for me is whether or not Dale will be in Amherst’s lineup. I’m not sure they need him before Cali, but it would be a nice boost. I’m going off the assumption that Christopher will play, and Amherst will be at full strength. This is the Jeff’s region to lose…
AMHERST
Where they’re strong: #1 doubles, #1/#5/#6 singles
Where they’re weak: #4 singles
Why they’ll get out of the region: They play ½ decent doubles, they have the best player in the regional, and they have the most depth in the regional. The is a reason the Jeffs are the overall #3 seed, and they should not have too much trouble flexing their purple muscles and powering through to the Quarterfinals. Plus this Amherst team has already taken care of the #2 and #3 regional seeds during the regular season.
Why they won’t get out of the region: Realistically MIT poses no threat to the Jeffs, but on their worst day Bowdoin might. When Amherst and Bowdoin squared off during the regular season, Amherst won 7-2, but it became uncomfortable after the doubles sweep. Granted, the Jeffs were playing without Dale, but 4 matches went to 3-sets, with Amherst winning 3 of the 4. The Jeffs will be fresher, coming off an easier Saturday match, but Bowdoin is one of the few teams in the country whose depth could (again on their best day) give Amherst a few issues.
Player to watch: Michael Solimano (#3 singles/#3 doubles). Solimano will need to step up for the Jeffs if Amherst is to make a run past the quarters. There is a chance for a sticky situation with Dale pulling out of NESCACs, and while Solimano stepped in admirably at #2, he’s much more suited for the #3 spot. Many of the pundits believe Amherst is weak at 3&4, but if Solimano is on his game then he is both a solid #3 and an extremely strong 3rd doubles player.
Odds of making it to Cali: 91%
BOWDOIN
Where they’re strong: #2/#3 singles
Where they’re weak: Doubles
Why they’ll get out of the region: Considering the season the Polar Bears have had, being the #2 seed with a weak-ish #3 seed should have Coach Smith smiling. Bowdoin matches up very well with the Engineers, considering MIT is one of the few ranked-ish teams who play worse doubles than the Polar Bears. While Bowdoin couldn’t get past Amherst earlier this season, the Polar Bears has had a few major upsets in its past few post seasons, and certainly has the singles strength to hang with the Jeffs.
Why they won’t get out of the region: If Bowdoin were in a different region (non-CMS of course) I’d say they might actually have a shot to get to the Elite 8. HOWEVER, as it is their doubles are simply too weak. You can’t go down 3-0 to Amherst and expect to come back. Even going down 2-1 spells likely doom. With Amherst starting Yaraghi and Reindel at 5/6, that’s almost 2 guaranteed points for the Jeffs. Combine that with Fritz/Dale/Solimano only needing 1 point and the Polar Bears are done. I’d like to believe that Bowdoin has a chance, but I’d put their chances of upsetting Amherst at less than 10%.
Player to watch: Chris Lord (#4 singles/#3 doubles). Lord has certainly had his ups and downs over the course of his college career, but he (along with King) has a chance to go out on top. Lord will have a say in both how the Polar Bears do in avoiding an MIT upset, and (if they get past the Engineers) will have to lead the charge against a heavily favored Amherst team.
Odds of making it to Cali: 8%
MIT
Where they’re strong: #1 singles
Where they’re weak: Doubles, DOUBLES, D-O-U-B-L-E-S
Why they’ll get out of the region: Honestly, they wont. HOWEVER, the Engineers cannot be too upset with their draw after their highly questionable regular season. They pushed a similarly underachieving Bowdoin team to 5-4 earlier in the season, though that was without Bragg, so there may be some confidence there. This is a team of really smart kids (shocker) so a little confidence/break from school might actually do them good. If BlackSwanTennis comes out firing and leading his team, they just might (10%) have an upset in them.
Why they won’t get out of the region: Their doubles have just been shot to hell this year. The Engineers were swept by Bates and more recently by Brandeis. Even on the off chance that their doubles clicks, they swept Bowdoin (without Bragg) in the beginning of April and still couldn’t get the job done. Bowdoin overcame two 1st set deficits to win both #2 and #6 in 3-sets. If MIT sweeps Bowdoin and can’t beat them without their best player, they’re not going to beat them regularly (let alone take on an Amherst team that blanked the Polar Bears).
Player to watch: Curtis Wu (#4 singles/#1 doubles). Wu has always been a bit of a mystery to me. I have friends who knew this kid in the juniors, and they always talked about him like he was the next best thing. Obviously he is super-talented, but on some days he just doesn’t give a monkey-fart about tennis. Now in his senior-NCAA run and last hurrah, Wu will need to act like he gives a crap if this team has any upset potential.
Odds of making it to Cali: 1%
STEVENS TECH
Where they’re strong: #1 singles
Where they’re weak: #5/6 singles
Why they’ll get out of the region: Realistically, they won’t get out of the region. HOWEVER, the Ducks are significantly more talented than either of the teams below, so they deserved their own little write-up. Heinrich is a straight baller (or pest depending on if you listen to A-South) and will be able to play with almost anyone in the draw. Stevens shouldn’t have an issue with Southern Maine, and from there who knows? Maybe they’re momentum will carry them to a point against the Jeffs. I doubt it.
Why they won’t get out of the region: It’s pretty plain and simple. For the Ducks to get to the regional finals, let alone all the way to Cali, they’re gonna have to beat Amherst. Fritz is one of the few regional players who will totally negate any advantage Stevens has at #1 singles, and this Amherst team quite literally might be 3-times as deep as the Ducks. Stevens, you’ve had a good run. Heiny, good luck at NCAAs
Player to watch: Matt Heinrich (#1 singles/#2 doubles). As I said above, Mattgic can ball. He’ll be representing the Ducks, the region, and most of all MEEEEEEEE at NCAAs in a few weeks. I’d love to see him battle with Fritz now, though I highly doubt that match will go to completion.
Odds of making it to Cali: <1%
SOUTHERN MAINE/NICHOLS
Where they’re strong: Unfortunately, compared to these other teams, they are not.
Where they’re weak: See above
Why they’ll get out of the region: Nope, nope, nope, nope, nope, nope. This year can already be considered a success for both teams
Why they won’t get out of the region: This is the same vaunted Nichols team who took a point off Williams early in last year’s tournament. Remember all the haterz? Hilarious! Neither of these team is playing a top 30 team in the 1st round, but the idea of either the Huskies or the Thunder winning a 1st round match is simply farfetched. Then again…black-hole?
Player to watch: Tyler Adams/Brandon Roode (#1 singles/#2 singles) Adams has been USM’s best player this year, continuing his strong freshman campaign into his sophomore year. Roode on the other hand, used to be the Thunder #1, but as a junior has stepped back a spot. Roode has the potential to beat most #2’s in this draw, and should have a good match with MIT’s #2.
Odds of making it to Cali: <<1%