Women’s Pool C Edition 1

Hello there, it’s NEW coming out of hibernation in time before today’s rankings come out! Here is my very first edition of what the Pool C situation looks like on the women’s side for 2016. Pool C is definitely a crowded place to be! First, let me set some background information regarding the Pools. There are three ways to qualify for the NCAA Team Championships. The first is through Pool A, which are the Automatic Qualifiers (Conference Champions) in conferences that have 7 or more teams. The second is through Pool B, which is for independents and schools from conferences with 6 teams or less. I believe currently there are just 15 Pool B schools, ZERO of which are even regionally ranked. And then there is the ultra competitive Pool C, which are the non-winners of the Conference Championships. In this article I’m going to talk mostly about the Pool C teams.

Here is the breakdown of Pools:
49 team bracket
Pool A: 39 Conference Champions (AQ) (I believe there were 40 spots last year.)
Pool B: 2 spots (I think this was only 1 spot last year. I’m not sure why we are going to 2 spots when Pool B is extremely weak. If anything the added spot from Pool A should have definitely gone to Pool C.)
Pool C: 8 spots

The Pool C spots tend to typically get taken up by the top 15 teams in the country, and this year it will be no different. More than likely, the NESCAC, the UAA and the SCIAC will claim all 8 Pool C spots, with the NCAC having an outside chance at taking a spot. Here are the conferences with more than 1 team ranked in the ITA Top 40 (rankings from 3/31/16). Top team in each conference is the assumed Pool A qualifier, while the rest are Pool C teams.
NESCAC – Williams (2), Bowdoin (4), Amherst (6), Middlebury (7), Wesleyan (8), Tufts (14), Trinity (32)
UAA – Emory (1), WashU (9), CMU (11), UChicago (15), Case (22), NYU (30), Brandeis (31)
SCIAC – Pomona (5), CMS (3), Redlands (21)
NCAC – DePauw (16), Denison (23), Oberlin (38), Kenyon (NR but will be)
NEWMAC – MIT (17), Babson (28), Wellesley (34)
Centennial – Hopkins (12), Washington (40)
Liberty – Skidmore (19), Vassar (NR but may come back)
CAC – Mary Washington (18), Christopher Newport (33)
NWC – Lewis & Clark (20), Whitman (25), Linfield (36)
MIAA – Hope (27), Kzoo (37)
That leaves Sewanee (10), W&L (13), Trinity TX (24), UWW (26), TCNJ (29), UTT (35), and Gustavus (39), all of who should win their conference championships and grab a Pool A spot.

And I make these assumptions about the conferences:
1. For NESCAC, UAA, and SCIAC, I make the assumption that the respective top ranked team (Williams, Emory, and Pomona) will grab the Pool A spot by winning the Conference Championships. If they lose, they will probably only lose to the second ranked team in the conference, therefore safely trading a Pool A spot for a Pool C spot.
2. For the NCAC, I’m going to assume for now that DePauw will claim the title and take the Pool A spot. But things in that conference can get messy, therefore spreading the mess to the other teams that they encounter, directly or indirectly.
2. For the other conferences, Pool A is their only shot for a spot in the NCAAs.

Here’s a rundown of conferences/teams that have a realistic chance of making the NCAAs via Pool C:

NESCAC
The NESCAC Pool C teams owe Tufts a big Thank You for getting that dominant 8-1 win over the University of Chicago to put everyone above the UAA 3-4-5 pack (of which only 1 will make the NCAAs). I see all 5 of the NESCAC teams below getting into the NCAAs via Pool C with relative ease, since they just basically play each other to finish out the season.

#6 Amherst
Wins: #21 Redlands, #28 Babson, #31 Brandeis, #17 MIT, #4 Bowdoin, #32 Trinity
Losses: #5 Pomona, #3 CMS
Verdict: Amherst is on a hAWT 7 match winning streak but they have the toughest stretch of matches to finish up their regular season as they face #2 Williams, #8 Wesleyan, #14 Tufts, and #7 Middlebury. I think they will actually finish strong and win 3 of the 4 heading into NESCACs. They are a lock for Pool C no matter what happens though.

#4 Bowdoin
Wins: #10 Sewanee, #9 WashU, #5 Pomona, #32 Trinity, #21 Redlands, #17 MIT, #8 Wesleyan
Losses: #3 CMS, #6 Amherst
Verdict: Bowdoin also has a relatively tough schedule to finish out the season as they have: #19 Skidmore, #7 Middlebury, #1 Emory, #2 Williams, and #14 Tufts, with the first 3 of those matches being on consecutive days. Again, this team will make the Pool C cut no matter what.

#7 Middlebury
Wins: #8 Wesleyan, #28 Babson, #14 Tufts
Losses: #5 Pomona, #3 CMS, #2 Williams
Verdict: Midd has #1 Emory, #4 Bowdoin, #19 Skidmore, #17 MIT, and #6 Amherst remaining on their schedule. Playing in the NESCAC is no joke! This team should also make Pool C with ease. The MIT match might be tricky, but Middlebury has enough resume wins (in D3AS’s words) to make it through.

#8 Wesleyan
Wins: #22 Case, #21 Redlands, #9 WashU
Losses: #7 Middlebury, #4 Bowdoin, #2 Williams
Verdict: Smart scheduling here, as Wesleyan knocked off some Pool C contenders from other conferences to secure their place. They have #6 Amherst, #14 Tufts, #32 Trinity, and #31 Brandeis remaining on their schedule. I think that the Wesleyan-Tufts match should be a highly anticipated match, not because it has any Pool C implications (both teams will make it), but it should should be a close match and have major ranking implications.

#14 Tufts
Wins: #20 L&C, #15 Chicago, #28 Babson, #32 Trinity
Losses: #5 Pomona, #14 MIT, #7 Middlebury
Verdict: This is incredible! We are 6 teams deep into the NESCAC and they are ALL in the Top 15! In any case, I cannot understate enough how big the win against Chicago is. Tufts essentially made the NCAA tournament because of that match. The JUMBOS did not even qualify for NESCACs last year (got edged by Trinity!) so this must feel great. The matches they have left are #34 Wellesley, #31 Brandeis, #6 Amherst, #8 Wesleyan, #4 Bowdoin, and #2 Williams. Unless they screw up against Wellesley or Brandeis (I don’t foresee that), they are in as a Pool C team. Again, I’m really looking forward to the Wesleyan-Tufts matchup.

UAA
The UAA should get 2 teams into the NCAAs via Pool C. This will make the UAA Tournament in Florida ultra exciting. Actually the UAA seeding call might be more exciting than the tournament itself. Whoever can get the #3 seed at least gives themselves a chance to play against CMU for a Pool C spot. Whoever winds up with the #4 and #5 seeds play each other, then Emory.

#11 CMU
Wins: #38 Oberlin, #16 DePauw, #12 Hopkins (x2), #13 W&L, #18 UMW
Losses: #5 Pomona (x2), #3 CMS, #10 Sewanee
Verdict: CMU is pretty much a lock for Pool C. They just have UAAs remaining, and should go in as the 2nd seed. If I had to guess they will wind up playing Chicago in the semifinals, which can be a dangerous matchup, but I think CMU will prevail and secure their spot as a Pool C team.

#15 Chicago
Wins: #37 Kalamazoo, #23 Denison, #16 DePauw, #25 Whitman, #26 UWW, #9 WashU
Losses: #14 Tufts, #22 Case
Verdict: Chicago is an extremely talented team and I think they can do some damage at UAAs but they may run out of time. If they had played some more NESCAC or SCIAC teams during spring break they might have given themselves more chances to prove what they can do. I’m guessing (pure speculation…if anyone knows how the seeding works in UAAs, please enlighten us) that they will snag the #3 seed at UAAs to set up a possible matchup with CMU in the semifinals. If they can win that match, I believe both Chicago and CMU will head to the NCAAs via Pool C.

#9 WashU
Wins: #10 Sewanee, #17 MIT, #16 DePauw, #13 W&L, #21 Redlands, #39 Gustavus, #22 Case
Losses: #1 Emory, #5 Pomona (x2), #8 Wesleyan, #4 Bowdoin, #26 UWW, #15 Chicago
Verdict: WashU actually has their last regular season match against UWW tomorrow, which is actually a great match for them because they can avenge their loss from the Midwest invite, which I think they will. I don’t know how the seeding call works for UAAs, but if WashU can somehow snag the #3 seed, they put themselves in a good position to make a final run for the last Pool C spot.

#22 Case
Wins: #27 Hope, #37 Kalamazoo, #29 TCNJ, #23 Denison, #38 Oberlin, #30 NYU, #15 Chicago
Losses: #21 Redlands, #8 Wesleyan, #18 UMW, #9 WashU
Verdict: Case was not in the picture a week ago. They are hanging on because of their dramatic 5-4 win over Chicago. Just from looking at their key wins and losses, I think they will wind up with the #5 seed, as their only win against a team ranked Top 20 is Chicago. But if they can make a miracle happen at UAAs…

SCIAC
The SCIAC will get one Pool C team into the NCAAs with relative ease. I list Redlands below because they do have the win over Case, but it is not likely they will get a Pool C spot unless they make the finals of the SCIAC.

#3 CMS
Wins: #31 Brandeis, #11 CMU, #6 Amherst, #25 Whitman, #4 Bowdoin, #24 Trinity, #7 Middlebury
Losses: #2 Williams, #1 Emory, #5 Pomona
Verdict: CMS has #21 Redlands and SCIACs remaining. I think it’s a tossup who is going to win the SCIACs this year between CMS and Pomona but the runner up is going to get a Pool C spot. But the SCIACs should be extremely exciting with a lot on the line. For Pomona, it would be their first time winning SCIACs in a while, and for CMS, it would avenge their regular season loss.

#21 Redlands
Wins: #36 Linfield, #25 Whitman, #24 Trinity, #31 Brandeis, #33 CNU, #22 Case, #35 UTT, #38 Oberlin
Losses: #20 L&C, #8 Wesleyan, #9 WashU, #6 Amherst, #4 Bowdoin
Verdict: Redlands is hanging in here on this list because of their 5-4 win against Case. Redlands probably won’t be able to knock off SCIAC powerhouses Pomona or CMS in the conference tournament, but they do have a sliver of a chance if Case can make some magic happen at UAAs. Probably not but you never know.

NCAC (DePauw, Denison, Oberlin, Kenyon) – I really don’t think that there is a Pool C team here. But their conference tournament should be dynamite, as there is some parity in this conference. Well deserved trip to the NCAAs for the Pool A winner!

Well, there you go boys and girls, Pool C analysis of the ITA Top 40 Teams!  Would love to hear your comments below!