Winner Goes to Disney – UAA Preview First Day + Semis

D3Central: This will be a joint preview between the almighty ASouth and myself (Central). The UAA teams were nice enough to make this work out extremely well with the three central teams in the top half of the bracket and the two ASouth teams in the bottom half. We will collaborate on our thoughts in the final. I must admit, that this tournament is pretty awesome as each of the 8 teams have been in our power rankings and seven out of the eight are currently ranked in the last ITA national polls. UAA for life!

D3ASowth: I was going to leave the introduction in Central’s hands, but I just feel like I bring a different set of skills to all the intros I write.  Call it my speciality.  Anyways, the UAA is the conference tournament that I definitely look forward to the most.  Reason being is that it has two of my best teams, along with 2 of Central’s best teams.  Not to mention the biggest rivalry in my book (Emory/WashU) as well as a budding rivalry between CMU/Case.  Oh, and did we mention that the UAA tournament is played in Orlando now?!  What a great place to play.  I want to see Eric Halpern riding Splash Mountain in Disney this weekend.  Or maybe Abhishek Alla on Test Track.  Okay, enough bullsh*tting.  This tournament is featuring seven top 30 teams this year.  Yes, I said SEVEN top 30 teams.  That’s insane.  With the depth of the UAA this year, it only makes sense we do an in-depth preview for your reading pleasure.  I’ll now pass it off to Central for his analysis on the top half of the draw, but I know that y’all will be looking forward to when I get on the google doc and start writing up a storm.  Oh wait, before Central gets into it – the Chicago Case matchup is HUGE right now.  If Chicago wins against Case, they would get the best win of all the Pool C contenders (between Bowdoin, Williams, Pomona) and they’d most likely make the tournament.  With Bowdoin and Williams losing to weaker opponents, Chicago has it in their hands to make the tournament in a last-ditch effort.

D3Central:

1 Wash U vs. 8 Brandeis

I don’t want to spend too much time on this match as we all know Case/Chicago and then the semi final will be good matchups to talk about. With that, I don’t want to short change Brandeis as they are a solid team. The biggest problem they will face is their lack of doubles strength and with Wash U, that is a going to make it next to impossible to put a scare in the Bears. I fully expect the Bears to sweep doubles and then clinch the match pretty quickly at 2 and 3 singles with the rest of the team following close behind. I am not sure if they play these matches to decision or not, but if they do, I predict a 5-0 score and if they play it out, I would say 8-1 which would be a victory for Brandeis getting the one match.

4 Case Western vs. 5 Chicago

Case won this earlier match up rather comfortably just two weeks ago 7-2. However Kranz did not play and he is an integral part of the lineup. Assuming he is healthy, this match could get dicey for the Spartans if they let it. Even with Kranz in the doubles lineup, I would still heavily favor Case to take a 2-1 lead going into singles. The combinations of Krimball/Klawitter at 1 and Drougas/Healey are just too strong. Chicago took three doubles in the first meeting and this is a must win for them if they want to pull off the upset. Case has shown a major weakness at this spot and I think the Maroons will be able to win it again. Case is more than capable of a sweep and if they do, they should cruise to victory. A 2-1 lead leaves the door open. While they played earlier in the year, inserting Kranz back into the singles lineup will change all of the match-ups so this is like playing a whole new ballgame. Krimball still will be favored over Sabada, but Deepak is playing well as of late so you never know. Krimball still is undefeated in the region and honestly he could go 0-3 and still make nationals. His team needs him though so I expect him to win. At 2, Kranz will take on Drougas. This one could go either way, but if Kranz is healthy, I’ve got to go with him as the favorite. At 3, Chicago has one of the hottest players right now and I think he continues that trend dispatching Klawitter. Klawitter is one of those guys that you better bring your A game or else he will take you down. Reinbold has made the move up to the 4 singles spot and I like the move as the senior plays better in big matches. Brian Sun is no slouch though so he gets the nod in three sets. So let’s take a look and recap what I have just said. Case is up 2-1 after dubs, but I have Chicago favored in 3 out of the first 4 singles matches. Could an upset be looming? At five singles, the freshman Fojtasek should take care of Szabo as he has a direct win (albeit at 4 singles) earlier this year. And finally, Healey will take on Max Hawkins at 6. I am always high on Healey as I love a great doubles player and I am going to stick with that thought process as Hawkins hasn’t shown much and has lost the majority of his last ten matches. If all plays out like I predicted, this match will end 5-4 in favor of Case Western. I am hopeful this is true, but for some reason I just don’t see it. Even after laying it down match by match, I am going to predict Case winning 6-3. I am not as confident on Kranz being healthy and think Drougas will pull it out. This could be a great match though.

D3ASowth:

3 Carnegie Mellon vs. 6 Rochester

If you think I’m not going to go in depth on CMU versus Rochester, you are definitely wrong. I told Mr. Ben Shapiro prior to this match that I’d give this one my best shot (as well as Matt DeMichael from NYU, who was clamoring for a preview on the plane) so I think I’m going to put out a good prediction here.  That being said, I haven’t always been the best at predictions.  Looking back at the Rochester season, they’ve got a few nice wins over NYU and Vassar, but when they’ve come against top competition they’ve faltered.  They played a fairly similar team to CMU in Wash u and ended up losing 7-2 and actually have one common opponent with the Tartans in Stevens Tech.  Well, Rochester lost to Stevens 7-2 on a neutral court and CMU beat Stevens 9-0 on a neutral court.  I’m going to go ahead and throw it out there that Rochester probably has less than 2% chance of winning this match.  I do think that they will come out pumped up and really fighting for every point they can get.  Let’s get into the matchups and see where the Jackets can potentially get a point.

#1 Doubles – Danko/Zhao (UR) vs. Duncan/Heaney-Secord – This Jackets team has some solid results as they beat NYU and played close with Stevens.  They seem to be a talented team, but H-S/Duncan are CMU’s strongest team by far.  I see this one potentially being close but i like CMU in this one, 8-4.

#2 Doubles – Shapiro/Baranowski (UR) vs. Beisswanger/Kirkov (CMU) – This is the best chance for the Jackets.  Shapiro is one of the blogs favorite players and this is a brand new team for CMU.  This has the makings of doubles rearing it’s ugly head and Rochester takes this one! UR, 8-6.

#3 Doubles – Borovcanin/Leeman (UR) vs. Kumar/Zheng (CMU) – For some reason I just really like this team from CMU with Zheng now in the lineup.  Kumar has been in the doubles lineup all year and this #3 team from UR just lost to NYU.  I’m taking CMU for 2-1 lead.

Singles – I’m not going to go matchup by matchup for this one because I don’t think that its necessary.  Alla should take care of Shapiro pretty handily at #1 singles.  At #2, this might be an interesting match between Danko and Heaney-Secord.  Danko has some solid performances this year and most recently beat Leong of NYU who is not a bad player at all.  Heaney-Secord is going to have a tough battle here but I’m taking him as he’s really been on a roll.  At the bottom of the lineup, UR just has no shot against Kirkov, Zheng, and Wadwani.  Those three have barely lost on the year and UR just doesn’t have the talent to match up, unfortunately.  At #3, Borovcanin vs. Duncan will be a nice match to watch and it will be very telling if Duncan struggles in this one.  The first match is always a good chance to see who’s playing well on the outdoor courts and if Duncan struggles here.  Overall, I’m taking CMU to win this match 8-1.

2 Emory vs. 7 NYU

Alright, moving on to the next match! Emory is always one of my favorite teams to cover (check my cover photo, boys!) and they’ll be taking on an NYU team that broke into the top 30 and has really cooled off since then.  One fun fact about NYU is that they’ve actually been not too bad at the UAA tournament in the past.  I remember either last year or the  year before when they took CMU to a 5-4 decision in the first round.  The thing about NYU is that they really, really struggle in doubles.  If you’re going to take points off of Emory when you’re a weaker team, it has to be in doubles.  NYU recently lost two doubles to Wilkes and that’s not a good sign.  Let’s get to the matchups.

#1 Doubles – Wu/Meltzer (NYU) vs. Ruderman/Wagner (EU) – Ugh. Wu and Meltzer are just not a great #1 doubles team and they’re going against a rising team in Ruderman/Wagner.  I expect Wagner to take over this match and EU rolls, 8-2.

#2 Doubles – Zumwalt/Lai (NYU) vs. Bajoria/Issacs/Adams (EU) – The story of this match will be interesting because we will see who gets the Emory #2 doubles team for the UAA tournament.  I thought it would be Bajoria/Issacs, but against Washington and Lee it was Issacs/Adams.  Either way, EU takes this one easy as well. EU 8-3.

#3 Doubles – Xu/Smithline (NYU) vs. Halpern/Mosetick/Someone Else – Another interesting match because we don’t know who Emory will throw out there.  I expect it to be Halpern/Mosetick and with that talent at #3 doubles, NYU doesn’t have a shot I think.  EU, 8-2.

Singles – The singles should be a lot closer for this match, especially at the top of the lineup.  I am really looking forward to the match between Wu and Ruderman.  Wu has had some really good results over the years and he actually beat Loutsenko (might have been injured) 2 and 2 and this match versus Ruderman will be a doozy.  Call me crazy, but I’m going to go ahead and pick WU for this one in three sets!  The rest of the way is not as good for NYU.  Leong vs the ex-#1 Halpern is going to be a lopsided EU matchup.  Meltzer vs. a heating up Mosetick will be tough under the Orlando sun, and I see Meltzer breaking down here and Mosetick rolling.  I believe at #4 will be DeMichael vs Wagner, and we’ll see if Wagner can come back from that loss to Krasner he had a week or so ago.  Wagner should be ready – he’s experienced and has won a national championship, so I’m going with Wagner in a quick one.  At the bottom two spots, look for an easy win from Szczurek as he blows through the Lim of NYU, and then Adams should easily take care of Wu.  Overall, 8-1 Emory.
Semi Finals

 

D3Central: Wash U vs. Case?

Unfortunately since the Chicago/Case match-up won’t be a fore gone conclusion, we don’t know who will play Wash U in the semi final. However, if everything goes chalk which I expect it to, Wash U and Case will finally be able to finish the match they started when they got cancelled due to a hail storm. That match ended early in singles, but Wash U had a 2-1 lead as they took 1 and 3 doubles. If Case wants a chance for an upset, it is imperative they are up 2-1. I favor Case at 2 and Wash U at 3 heavily so that leaves the swing match at the top spot. Putterman/Bush have given Krimball/Klawitter their only loss this season, but this match could go either way. Both teams are disciplined and both very capable. I am actually going to give Case the nod for excitement sake in hopes this match is closer than it could be. If Case goes up, they will still need a big effort to pull the upset. Krimball should take care of Putterman without much of an issue, but Wash U will be heavily favored at 2 and 3 as Carswell and Bush are that good. Normally I would pick Noack over Reinbold, but the Spartan was up 4-0 when play was stopped the first time around. I have a gut feeling this one goes three sets as Noack is a nightmare to play psychologically. I think Kratky will take out Fojtasek and Chu should better Healey at six. All in all that leaves the match in favor of Wash U 5-4. Like my assessment of the Chicago/Case match, my gut says this will be 6-3 so I would give Noack the edge at four singles. It won’t be a comfortable win, but a decent win nonetheless. Wash U will be wanting to end this quickly as a long drawn out battle will hurt their chances against Emory or Carnegie in the final.

Emory vs. Carnegie

Now, this is the match I was waiting to preview (other than the finals, of course).  Emory and CMU are two teams that are matching up very similarly and this one might be a lot closer than some of you think.  Remember, both teams have struggled a bit in doubles and have very strong, deep singles lineups.  Let’s remember that Emory was down 2-1 to Kenyon w/ Raz while CMU was up 2-1 with no Raz.  These doubles matchups will be absolutely monstrous and if CMU wants to prove a point, they will have to take 2 doubles matches in this one.  The reason why I say that is because Emory has hit its stride and I’d dare anyone to bet against Emory in the UAA tournament.  Just last year, they took a team that was worse than Wash U and almost beat them through grittiness alone.  Emory brings it at the end of the year and we all know that.  CMU, meanwhile, is a team with very little experience.  This is when having seniors and juniors matter and I think Emory has that clear advantage.  That doesn’t mean CMU can’t win if they go down in doubles, but I’d love their chances a lot more if they took the lead.  Let’s go into every matchup.

#1 Doubles – Ruderman/Wagner vs. Duncan/Heaney-Secord

Swing match #1 right off the bat.  Both of these teams have virtually played together the whole year, so this should be a matchup where both teams have good continuity.  Almost all of Emory’s doubles teams rely heavily on returns, which should work in the favor of the big serving Duncan/Heaney-Secord combo.  Thing is, the CMU team has been just as inconsistent as the Emory team.  This one is going to be very close and it all depends on what kind of streak the CMU team goes on.  If they come out fired up… this one might swing to CMU. CMU, 8-6.

#2 Doubles – Issacs/Adams vs. Beisswanger/Kirkov

This technically might be a swing match, but I don’t see CMU winning this one.  This is a match between what I think are the two weakest teams in the starting lineup.  The one factor you may want to take into account is Kirkov/Beisswanger taking over the net and winning this one, but Issacs/Adams have been playing well lately and Emory should take this match.  EU 8-5.

#3 Doubles – Halpern/Mosetick vs. Kumar/Zheng

I wish CMU’s bottom two doubles teams weren’t such question marks, because they honestly could have a shot at these two matches.  The advantage that Halpern/Mosetick have is that they’ve been playing together for most of the season while Kumar/Zheng are a newly formed team with about 2-3 weeks of experience.  That plays the difference between two teams that aren’t necessarily the msot fundamental of teams.  EU 9-7, EU Leads into Singles 2-1.

#1 Singles – Ruderman vs. Alla

This is the marquee matchup of the tournament right here! Ruderman and Alla are two of the best in the Atlantic South and the best part about it is they have two very different game styles.  Let’s remember this is in the heat of Orlando, as well.  Ruderman’s grinding style has been turning people to dust recently and despite Alla’s great win over Heerboth as well as a stellar season, I have to take Ruderman and the elements by a tight 3 set score. EU 7-5, 3-6, 6-4.

#2 Singles – Halpern vs. Heaney-Secord

Another great matchup here between two former #1’s.  Halpern has come on as of late as we know, but Christian has done so as well.  This is a matchup between a big hitter and a grinder, and again the elements may come into play.  That being said, for some reason I think H-S is going to come in hot and take a quick first set.  The second set will be closer, but who knows – maybe he keeps the fire.  Gonna give it a shot in the dark and take CMU 6-3 7-6.

#3 Singles – Mosetick vs. Duncan

This matchup between Emory and CMU singles is really a dream come true.  What great matches all the way down the board.  Mosetick is ANOTHER grinder from Emory and if you remember from last year, this dude puked all over the court and still won his match in the UAA final.  That’s what you call grimy.  Duncan on the other hand was sitting out with injury and I’m not sure if he’s back to his old form.  Mosetick has the advantage here and I’m picking him to take this one.  CMU 6-2, 6-2. Oh, I mean EU, 6-3, 6-2.

#4 Singles – Wagner vs. Kirkov

The veteran Wagner versus the freshman Kirkov?! What a great #4 matchup that reminds me of the old greats.  Wagner is coming off a couple losses and potentially some confidence issues, while Kirkov has been lights out for most of the year.  Not to mention, he’s been clutch.  But again, this is the time for the Eagles to step up and Wagner is a great example of their culture.  Wagner steps up bigtime for Emory, by the score of 7-5, 6-3.

#5 Singles – Szczurek vs. Zheng

Kenny Zheng has been a god amongst men at #5 singles this year.  The kid has not lost once at #5 in any DIII match.  Meanwhile, Szczurek has been very solid at both the #4 and #5 spots this year.  Emory and CMU actually flip flop the matchup here as Zheng (I believe) is more of a grinder, and Szczurek hits a clean flat lefty ball.  This will give Zheng some trouble at first, but I like Zheng + elements + courts and I take CMU, 6-4, 6-4.

#6 Singles – Adams vs. Wadwani

Prepare for this one to be a long one.  Watching the boxscore of last week’s Kenyon/CMU match seems to tell me that this one is going to be a marathon.  Adams is a player that always sits at a rock solid #6 spot and I’m really unsure of who to pick here.  Adams has already beaten Lim of Hopkins this year, played tight with Frons of Midd, but also lost to Fiaschetti.  That being said I think he controls the match from the baseline and wins in a real tough one.  EU 7-6, 7-5.

When it’s all said and done, I have EU taking the match by a score of 6-3.  But if you look at the matchups, CMU could probably come away with a lot of those matches on the right day.  This is a matter of a team that’s already been there versus a team that’s trying to get to the top.  It won’t happen until it actually happens, but it would be something if it did (did u get that?).  Take a look at Hopkins season after beating Emory – there’s just a confidence there and we view them as a top tier team.  CMU can make that jump, but I think that’s not in the cards at the conference tournament.

D3ASowth Conclusion: Well, that’s all for our first edition of the UAA Tournament.  We WILL be back after tomorrow’s matches for a brief preview of some of the consolation matches and of course back for the Finals Preview which will come out sometime Friday.  Be sure to check back on this tournament because wow, there are so many good teams out there.  Anyways, I need to get this thing out before the players sleep. ASowth, out.

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