The season is officially getting hyped up. March Madness means a lot of spring breaks for our Eastern teams (I consider everything that’s not the West to be East) and this is often a time when Pool C bids start to come into focus. Teams can essentially lock in spots in the NCAA tournament at this time with direct wins over their competitors on a neutral court. Not to mention, we have this big thing called the Stag-Hen later on next week. We’ll all be going through each team’s Spring Breaks on a team-by-team basis, but first let’s get to a couple of stray matches that are happening at Redlands as well as a random Northeast match that happens out West between Bowdoin and Skidmore. D3NE has given me his blessing to put his preview in with mine, so obviously that section is being written by him if you have complaints. Feel free to roast him.
#18 Mary Washington @ #13 Redlands, Saturday 5PM ET
I had told you on Mary Washington’s spring break preview that I would be covering this match after we got a better idea of the Eagles’ play this year, and I must say I’m very glad I had done so. I had clearly underestimated the Eagles on this trip as they have already beaten CLU and taken P-P to a thrilling 5-4 match. Now, the CLU may not be that impressive when it’s all said and done, but it was good to see this Mary Washington team beat my expectations so far. They’ve now been ranked #18 in our composite rankings and #17 in the ITA rankings, so that’s a huge plus for them. This match between UMW and Redlands will be absolutely huge for.. Redlands. Being a Pool C competitor, Redlands needs this win as UMW does play a few other Pool C teams later on in the year. On their home courts, they should be able to have a decent advantage against the Eagles but we all know the history of the Bulldawgs struggles in the past. Based on the scores of this year, this looks to be a close match that will test the clutch factor of Redlands and also the conditioning of the Eagles. To the match…
The doubles portion of this match (as usual) will be absolutely huge for the outcome of this match. I believe that this one is going to come down to the final score of 5-4 (spoiler alert) so there will be a ton of swing matches throughout this one that will determine who wins and most likely gets to the top 15 in the nation. Every single doubles match out of the three is going to be interesting and close, in my eyes. Starting at #1 doubles will be two teams that are really looking for a solid win at that spot. Both of these teams have struggled a bit this year against #1 competition, especially the Redlands combo of Lipscomb/Leahy. As you know, I love the doubles play of Charles, but I think Lipscomb will be the best player on the court. I’m going to go with Redlands in a very close one here, maybe 9-7 overall. At #2 doubles, I think UMW has a very slim advantage over the Redlands team of Cummins/Jones. Griffin and Gilmore have been playing lights out for UMW this trip, taking out two solid teams from CLU and PP. I’m going the UMW team by the score of 8-4. #3 doubles will be my swing match of doubles. This match represents a strength for both teams as the veteran team of Blahkin/L-J goes against the young team of Suchodolski/Burchett. In a close one that comes down to many factors, I’m going to go against the home-court advantage and go with the veteran team of UMW, making it 2-1 Eagles into the singles play.
Singles will be a little bit more cut and dry. There are clear advantages at certain spots here, starting with the #1 singles battle between Patrick Lipscomb and Tyler Carey. Lipscomb is yet to win a ranked match this year, but I blame that more on the top competition he’s faced instead of any rust from his studying abroad. In addition, Lipscomb is great on his home courts. This should be a routine win for Redlands to tie it up at 2-2. At #2 is a match I’m really looking forward to for a few reasons. First off, will Charles be able to keep up a head of steam after going through a brutal match on Thursday? Secondly, it will be interesting to see Cummins play a contrasting style of play in the junk ball style of Charles. Personally, I think Cummins talent wins out here and he takes this one as well. If this one goes three sets, I’m still taking Cummins based on the fatigue factor. #3 singles is where the scale might start to tip in UMW’s favor. Stratton Gilmore has been a great find at #3 so far this year, but he will again be coming off a tough three setter the other day against P-P. For Redlands, they’ll send out Parker Wilson who is absolutely no joke at #3. If Gilmore wants to win this one in the hot California sun, he better make it quick. I think he does, and takes this one 6-3, 6-3. That makes it 3-3 overall going into the bottom of the lineup. Here, I love the way that Blahkin has been playing at #5 singles and he should have absolutely no problem at that spot versus Burchett. Blahkin is a tough competitor who has a ton of talent, and mixes lower players up with his lefty spin. He has a lot of experience and I really think he’s got a huge advantage. UMW at #5. At #4, I think it’s the opposite. Suchdolski of Redlands is a freshman, but he’s shown that he can be a consistent player at that spot. He’ll go up against Lunding-Johannson, who is definitely on a roll right now with wins over Wei of PP and Slater of CLU. This is going to be another close one, but I’m going with the Sucho at this spot as L-J fatigues a bit in the second set. That leaves it at 4-4 going into the #6 match. This is a matchup between the 6 foot freshman, Brandon Griffin (UMW) against Teddy Jones of Redlands. With the way Griffin has been playing, I’ve got to go with the hot hand and I’m taking him at #6 for a 5-4 UMW victory!! (Let’s keep in mind Redlands will be playing a pesky Stevens team that morning as well).
NR Stevens @ #13 Redlands, Saturday 12PM ET
This match is really a pre-cursor to the main event that occurs later on in the day between UMW and Redlands. Redlands apparently seems to think so too, considering they scheduled Stevens the day of a fairly important match in the Eagles. It looks like they may have underestimated both of these teams.
Doubles is where Stevens has any shot of winning this one. If they want to take the match, they’ll absolutely need a doubles sweep because Redlands is particularly solid where they are not. Thing is, Stevens simply doesn’t have the talent at the bottom of the lineup to win that #3 doubles spot, especially because the Dawgs are strong there. Not to mention this will be early morning on Redlands campus, so I assume theres some type of familiarity for Redlands there. The match to watch will really be the set of #1 doubles. Stevens #1 of Foran/Perich (got it right this time) have played very well, but all streaks have to come to an end eventually. Redlands is hungry for that win at #1 doubles and Lipscomb takes over this match to send Redlands to a 2-1 lead in a 9-8 breaker. Obviously, Stevens has the advantage at #2 with the team of Heinrich/Drake.
In singles, I think the only competitive match here will be at #1 singles between Heinrich and Lipscomb. The kid has been asking for a match that will vault him into nationals conversation, and this is it. Keeping with my strategy of telling players to prove it, I’m taking Lipscomb on his home courts in a close first before Heinrich falters. I wouldn’t be surprised at all if this one goes 3 sets, but this may be the only close match of the group. Redlands has a clear advantage in the #2-6 spots. The only one I can really see Stevens winning is Foran at #2, but I just don’t think that’s there. I’m going to go Redlands with a singles sweep, taking out the Ducks 8-1.
#10 Bowdoin vs. #30 Skidmore, 2 PM ET
We finally get our first look at one of the top-guns from the NESCAC! The Bowdoin Polar Bears will spend the next two weeks in Cali playing good teams, soaking up much needed sunlight and warmth, and staying far away from any and all Pepperidge Farm snacks (those things go straight to your thighs, and then you blow up…http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=swvfhpRjdR4). Last fall sophomore Luke Trinka (out of nowhere) won the New England ITA and single handedly moved the team forward from its epic “Goldfish-Gate” scandal. Rumors from Maine say that he’s still playing some incredible tennis and likely will start at #1. While the rest of the lineup could shake out in a few different ways, I’ll take a shot at matching them up with their first opponent on their trip, the reeling Skidmore Thoroughbreds. After what can only be described as a “season wrecking loss,” the boys from Saratoga Springs are looking to regroup. How better to regroup than a win over a top-10 caliber team? Much easier said than done, but after last weekend’s disaster vs. NYU I’m sure Coach Simms will have his squad fired up for this match. I’m not taking the upset here, but don’t mistake this Skidmore team as talentless. While they do underachieve to a certain extent, this is a very capable team that (if the stars align) can challenge any team in the country.
If Skidmore has any hope of winning this match, it starts with doubles. Although Ransom/Steerman are not a strength in the 3rd spot, all 3 doubles teams (including Loutsenko/Knight and Sherpa/Hoblitzell) are solid. I know that NYU won at #2 doubles last weekend, but history suggests that Skidmore’s top 2 teams are better than their 3rd and both of their top 2 teams are capable of pushing Bowdoin, especially this early in the season (this is Polar Bears’ first dual match of the season). Last season, Bowdoin’s doubles teams were Caplan/Wolstencraft, Bragg/King, and Trinka/Savage. None of those 6 graduated, so it seems likely that they’ll all continue playing together. If the order stays the same, then #1 doubles should be a battle, I’d give Skidmore the tight edge at #2, and Bowdoin a big edge at #3. Overall I’m taking Bowdoin to come out of doubles with the lead, which will make them the overwhelming favorite in the match.
The marquee match of the day will be Loutsenko and Trinka at #1 singles. Two of the regions best players will battle in a rematch of the quarterfinals of Small College Nationals and both should provide plenty of firepower. While Loutsenko won their match in October, for one reason or another he seems less than 100% at the moment. He lost 2&2 to Wu last weekend and then didn’t play singles vs. Vassar. Loutsenko is a competitive guy and there’s no way he would have allowed himself to be taken out of the singles lineup against a rival, no matter how sure the outcome of the match. That being said, Oliver’s gonna need to be at 110% to be able to go out and beat the new and improved Trinka. Because I do not believe Loustenko to be fully healthy, I’m taking Trinka in straight sets, something like 7-5, 6-2.
While there will undoubtedly be some other outstanding matchups, I don’t believe any will have the same appeal as Loutsenko/Trinka. Still, I’m taking Bragg over Sherpa (making it 4-1 Bowdoin), Knight over King in 3 sets (4-2), Lord over Ransom in straight sets (5-2) Wolstencraft over Hoblitzell (6-2) and Savage over Epstein (7-2). Unless you skip parentheses (in which case f*** off) you’ll see that I do not believe Skidmore will be able to stick with Bowdoin’s talent all the way through the lineup. In fact, I believe this match to be closer to 9-0 than 5-4. We’ll have a better sense of Bowdoin’s lineup after this match, so we’ll wait until Sunday or Monday morning to take a look at the rest of Bowdoin’s spring break trip, including a critical Pool C matchup against Carnegie Mellon on Monday.