WEEKEND PREVIEW: 3/24-3/26

WEEKEND PREVIEW: 3/24-3/26

Happy weekend, boys and girls. Instead of posting six or seven short previews throughout the day, we decided it would be easier for everybody if we condensed all the top-30 ranked matches into one larger weekend preview. If you want to read more about #10 Williams’ weekend (vs #4 Chicago, #11 Redlands, and #1 CMS), check out the preview that came out earlier this morning. We have a number of important matches this weekend as multiple teams are still out or just beginning their spring break trips. I apologize in advance for D3AS’ ramblings. He wrote way more than I did here, which is really saying something. Any thoughts on the matches, predictions, or general wonderings about the world, please leave them in the comments section below. Here is your (Williams-less) weekend in chronological order.

#18 Tufts @ #12 Pomona-Pitzer, Friday at 4 pm

NE: I know i wrote a little ditty about this earlier in the week, so this will stay on the shorter side, but now at least we’ve seen Tufts go against Chicago and Colby. So far the Jumbos are pretty close to what we thought they were. Their lineup remained close to the same through the week, which allows us to have at least some idea of the individual matchups. PP is coming off a tough loss against Williams, but will undoubtedly be ready for this one, as basically every match the Coop hosts during the month of March has Pool-C implications. Both teams have struggled in doubles against top competition, so a doubles lead will be crucial here. Yaz is going to be favored at #1 against almost anybody he plays right now, but the rest of the lineup should feature some good matches. It’s tough for me to believe that one team will totally dominate those five spots, which is why I’m going with a 6-3 win for the Pizzeria.

#20 Bates @ #23 UMW, Friday at 4 pm

NE: Of all the great matches this weekend, this could be the one I’m least sure about. Bates is 1-4 this year with losses to CMS, Midd PP and MIT, all of whom are ranked above them. This will be the first time that Bates is “favored” in our power rankings against another ranked team, and should really show whether or not the Bobcats have anything going for them this year. Bates is 1-20 in singles matches against ranked teams not decided by a super breaker. I’m not beginning to suggest that UMW is as deep as any of the aforementioned teams. The Eagles also lost 6-3 to PP after blowing a 2-1 doubles lead, but have a couple solid wins over W&L and an ever-climbing Sewanee team. However, UMW also got beaten rather badly by a not-quite-full strength Redlands team. I like Bates’ doubles better in this matchup, and probably like UMW’s singles slightly more, but most of the singles matches appear to be too close to call. AS may be able to shed more light on Fleming and UMW’s singles lineup, but I’m taking Bates to jump out to a doubles lead and hold on from there. I think this will be a close one, and I’m taking Bates to hold onto a doubles lead and take the match 5-4.

AS: In my mind, this is a match that Bates just has to win. While it doesn’t mean much for their NESCAC hopes, it means a lot for them to beat a top 25 team in order to get their season on the right track.  A loss here would be way more damaging to the psyche of this team than those may think. UMW is back to their regular schtick this year, which means that Bates should absolutely win this match considering they are power ranked higher. Does that mean I have a lot of confidence in the Bobcats? I don’t think so, as I haven’t answered that question with a “yes” in years. An obvious X-Factor here is whether or not Michael Fleming plays, and how well he plays.  He played in the last match against W&L and the Eagles subsequently looked significantly stronger. This wasn’t surprising. UMW has quietly put together a very good top 4 with Griffin/Miles/Hughes/Fleming, and that makes me scared for the Bobcats. Not to mention this is on the Eagles home courts, where they are obviously extremely comfortable, whether it be indoors our outdoors.  As I talk more and more about it, the more and more I think that this is a match that the Bobcats tend to lose.

UMW has positioned their doubles lineup to be very strong at #2 and #3 doubles, as they are almost incapable of a sweep but very capable of 2-1 leads. The issue for them is that Bates has very strong #2 and #3 doubles teams as well.  When push comes to shove, normally UMW comes up with a couple matches, so here’s what I think – UMW gets one of the bottom two doubles matches to go into singles with a 2-1 deficit. Anything better, and I think this match is a definite win for the Eagles. Moving to singles, #1 and #2 singles should be battles, and Matt Miles could surprise me at #2 by taking a big match at #2 over Chris Ellis. Those are big matches for the Eagles since they should be underdogs there.  UMW should have the advantage at #3, #4 and potentially one of the bottom spots. Overall, it’s really going to matter on one thing. Who raises their game to beat a very evenly matched team.  With the history of these teams and the fact that it means a little bit more to Bates to take this match, I will begrudgingly take Bates 5-4.

#13 Case Western @ #26 Kenyon, Saturday at 1pm

MW: This is the biggest central region matchup of the weekend, and I’m so pumped! Both teams haven’t had the best starts to the season, with Kenyon especially falling big time. Thus far, Kenyon has played eight ranked teams, suffering sevens losses. Their lone win came against Stevens, a team that is barely hanging on to its national ranking. In every loss, Kenyon has been down in doubles, and there have been three doubles sweeps. It’s tough to see the Lords clinching a win without having a lead after doubles against Case.

Meanwhile, Case has had several 5-4 matches against tough teams go the wrong the way. Keep in mind, however, that these have been opponents that are top-tier teams.

I see Case having the doubles advantage, and leading 2-1 heading into singles. I like Kenyon’s Nick Paolucci and Jacob Zalenski at 1 and 2, respectively, so I give them the advantage at those spots. That said, the Spartans have depth on their side. Although this match is on Kenyon’s home courts, I think Case takes a 6-3 win.

AS: I’m being roped into this preview because I’m AS and I know everything. Or at least I know things about Case and Kenyon.  Neither of these teams have done that well this year, with Case taking two pretty bad losses against Pomona and losing their chance to surprise a Rozenvasser-less CMU team on their home courts at Indoors. Case needs to be perfect from this point on and I am not sure if that can be done.  Kenyon, on the other hand,has had a nightmarish season.  They pretty much have one highlight and that’s winning the Sportsmanship Award at Indoors (which I think is awesome, by the way). Other than that, we’re seeing losses to Kalamazoo, Trinity, Pomona, Amherst, and others. However, this could get interesting because they should be bringing all the energy they can muster against a Case team that they have some bad blood with. I think the home court advantage here should also not be overlooked – I can imagine the Kenyon team being able to bring out a ton of intoxicated Kenyon fans to the courts on a Saturday at 1PM. It’s a pretty well-connected campus.  A lot will depend on how the Case players play under the pressure of having a must-win match and being on the Kenyon courts.

Kenyon notably has not taken a doubles lead against any of the ranked teams that they’ve played and that will potentially rear it’s ugly head here. They probably need a doubles win as Midwest mentioned, and I think it actually happens here. For some reason, I love the crowd boost that they’ll get. Emotions running high might cause some variability in an already variable portion of the match.  From there, Kenyon needs to capitalize on the top 2 singles spots and just taking ONE of the bottom singles spots. I’m not going to comment on the matches that I think Kenyon can win, but I do want to point out one thing. Not sure when the last time Kenyon’s 5 or 6 has won a match other than a super tiebreaker win at #6 over Trinity TX. Senior Mike Roberts has won 0 matches at #5 singles. This was a guy I expected to be way better this year and I picked as a backup on my fantasy team. That, like all of my backup fantasy picks, has totally been a bust. Kenyon needs some big performances and this could finally be the match where they get them.  For some reason, I’m feeling a Kenyon win here. Give me the Lords, 5-4.

#20 Bates vs #14 Hopkins, Saturday at 2 pm

AS: Hopkins finally gets to play a team that can give them a bit of a challenge, and I am excited to see what the first impression of the Blue Jays will be this year.  The problem with previewing this team is that they’ve basically made it so you never know what you’re going to get, based on recent history. I think that the whole Tank and Tree thing last year may have been this particular Hopkins team turning a corner, but I’ve been made to look like an idiot with this team in the past. Hopkins performed well in doubles in ITAs, but like clockwork, they have changed their doubles lineup for the Spring.  Their doubles lineup currently is as follows:

Buxbaum/Dubin, Cartledge (who) and Walsh, Perez/Thygesen (at least this is familiar).  For some reason, that Buxbaum/Walsh will not play together in the Spring for the second or third time in their careers.  It will be interesting to see if Hopkins can pull out the doubles portion of this match.  If you’re looking at box scores, Hopkins did beat W&L 6-3 while UMW beat them 8-1. Could this be one of those matches that Hopkins loses so we don’t talk about them for the rest of the season until they make the Elite 8? Hopkins shouldn’t be struggling with teams UMW is crushing.

Quickly what I expect – Hopkins will probably take a 2-1 lead because I believe in Buxbaum and Walsh. I also believe that Hopkins is a bit more prepared this year to take on top ranked teams than they were early in the year last year.  I believe this match is going to be played indoors, assuming Hopkins actually secured indoor courts this year. Indoors benefits the Jays in this one.  After the doubles lead, Hopkins should flex their singles strength that got them to the Elite 8 last year and within 1 point of taking out the national champion Polar Bears.  Give me 5 singles matches, so 7-2 Hopkins.  If that happens, I’d feel really comfortable with myself putting them within the top 10 of my power rankings.

NE: Whatever the result of the Bates/Mary Washington match, the Bobcats could be emotionally drained from a close match the evening before. While they did beat Hop a few years ago (one of the biggest wins in program history), the Jays have dominated this series the past few years. Last year the two teams were forced to cancel their match, and I hope that there are backup plans this year in case of inclement weather. We haven’t seen too much of Hopkins yet, but they will likely be favored at almost every singles spot. Bates plays good doubles, but has struggled in the singles portion of matches so far this spring. Hop’s depth is too much, and the Jays overcome a doubles deficit for a 6-3 win.

#23 UMW @ #35 CNU, Saturday at 3 pm

RegAS: “If you ain’t first, yer last,” which means that if you believe the words of Ricky Bobby, the loser of this will by default become “last” in the CAC. That joke, really probably wasn’t as funny as I thought it was, but I digress. All kidding aside, this match will most likely be pretty straight forward. CNU was playing some pretty good tennis to start to season, but seems to have slipped recently with two 4-5 losses to NC Wes and W&L. Mary Washington on the other hand has been the same solid team we have come to expect, beating everyone who they were supposed to and losing to everyone who is better than them. CNU has not beaten Mary Washington since joining the CAC in the 2013-2014 season and I just don’t see the trend breaking. There will be an interesting matchup between David Reed/Brandon Griffin that could have NCAA individual implications. Overall I don’t think this will be too close though, I’m going with Mary Washington 7-2.

AS: This is a match that UMW wins. They’ve lost it before, but for the most part, they win it.I’ve been doing a lot of Mary Washington analysis lately and that gets a little monotonous at times. CNU is coming off a weak loss to NC Wesleyan. UMW is coming off a strong win against W&L. The one thing that could be going for the Captains is that UMW might be coming off a tough  loss against Bates the day before. You never know who’s going to be tired, and who knows if Michael Fleming is going to be able to play in a back to back. That’s really what CNU can hope for and even then, I still have to go Eagles blue. Give me Mary Wash, 6-3.

#5 Middlebury vs #21 UT-Tyler, Sunday at 5 pm

NE: The Panthers begin their spring break with a couple of teams we have ranked in the (INSERT RANGE HERE). Tyler has a couple of strong spots, but unfortunately for them one is Fagundes at #1 singles who will be an underdog against Lubomir Cuba. For those Pat fans who are thinking, well maybe this will be Midd’s first time playing outdoors, the Panthers actually have matches scheduled for the day and morning of this match. If anything, Midd could be a little wiped from all the outdoor tennis they’ve been playing over the past 24 hours. Midd has already beaten Bates, Brandeis and RPI, and while none of those teams are probably quite as good as Tyler or GAC, this should still be a comfortable win for the defending runners up. Midd 8-1.

West: Time for a little game of “Exactly How Good Are They, Actually?” It’s a great game for mid-to-late March as the NESCAC teams start to swing into gear, and we really have no idea how good they actually are. In their action so far this year, Midd has been good in doubles and very strong at the top of the singles ladder, but they depth has been unusually suspect (going a combined 2-4 at #4-6 singles against Skidmore and Brandeis). The surprising Pats are about to put Midd’s goodness to the test (in a tennis sense, not a spiritual sense), as a team that appears to be pretty solid from top to bottom. Ultimately, I think Midd is going to do to Tyler what Amherst did to Tyler, which is just overwhelm them with their slightly-betteritude from top to bottom, but Tyler will pick up wins at #1 doubles and #4 singles for a 7-2 Midd victory.

#5 Middlebury vs #19 GAC, Monday at 10:30 am

NE: I like how Coach Hansen starts the Panthers off on this trip. They get a couple of solid teams just around #40 in the country, then ramp it up to teams closer to #20, followed by their important matches against other national championship contenders (more on that later next week). True, the early matches are packed pretty tightly together, but even if somebody sits in order to stay healthy for the matches against Emory or CMS, I think Midd should be fine against GAC. Like Tyler, GAC can play strong doubles, so it should be a good test for the Panthers, but Hansen’ homies should roll through singles, especially at the middle/bottom of the lineup. Midd 7-2.

MW: Unfortunately, there’s not much to say because the Gusties are simply outmatched. Basically, if the Gusties want to win, they need to take a 2-1 lead in dubs, and win at 1-3 singles. Luckily, they have one of the best players in the country in Mohanad Alhouni, and Zach Ekstein and Patrick Whaling are very good at the 2 and 3 spots. Still, I take Middlebury 8-1.