This Week In West: A SCIAC Showdown and a Texas Triad

Alright you worthless peons, I’ve got an upsetting amount of free-time on my hands, as I’m in between jobs at the moment (read: unemployed), which means I do what any self-respecting adult does when the chips are down, waste time on an unpaid leisure activity. I’ve been setting the NESCAC apologists straight in the comments of the Pool C article, but it’s probably time for me to actually write an article of my own.

http://www.division3tennis.com/asouth-favorite-2017-pool-c-update-1/

This weekend, five of the top six regional teams – seven of the top nine if you count LC/Pacific, which will be previewed in a separate article – are playing some huge interregional matches (my favorite kind of matches), and I don’t think I can trick Regional into covering these. Let’s start in the Golden State

#1 CMS vs. #11 Redlands

What’s at stake?

Redlands’ last regular season chance to lay claim to Pool C pole position and CMS’ 149-year SCIAC winning streak. If Glenn “Sunshine” Hull remains out, this is probably the Bulldogs’ best opportunity.

Who are the stakeholders (players listed in order of likely singles lineup position)?

CMS Power 6 (no Hull): 76.35. Niko Parodi (12.95), Daniel Morkovine (12.96), Patrick Wildman (12.90), Daniel Park (12.40), Max Macey (12.37), Alex Brenner (12.77). Hull’s UTR is 13.46 for a team rating of 77.04 with him in.

Redlands Power 6: 72.15. Chase Lipscomb (12.40), Parker Wilson (12.52), Joey Dulle (11.95), Jake Ly (12.11), Tom Suchodolski (11.65), Avery Davis (11.52)

Can Redlands win?

The UTR rarely tells us anything we don’t know, but, even without Hull, the Stags are clearly the heavy favorite here. What UTR doesn’t say anything about is doubles, which CMS is still clearly struggling with. They’ve played 11 different ranked DIII teams and have only lead after doubles once (s/o to CMU), so the Bulldogs will have to hit them early. The Dawgs have traveled a serpiginous course in doubles, but they’ve certainly shown some sweep potential (2-1 lead against Williams ain’t bad). If Trinity can do it, Redlands can do it too. #3 doubles, being CMS’ strongest position at the moment, will be the key spot, and, with a duo of seniors down there (Suchodolski/Parker), it’s probably Redlands’ strongest doubles position too.

For the sake of argument, let’s say Redlands does manage to sweep the doubles. Where do they get two more points? Mork has been having a surprisingly tough time his senior season, and Wilson can make you play a lot of balls. Parodi is obviously excellent, but he hasn’t really been blowing people out, and Lipscomb is one of the best players in D3. I don’t envy Redlands’ chances at the bottom of the singles lineup, but senior Jake Ly (Redlands) vs. freshman Daniel Park (CMS) at #4 singles would be another spot to look at. Basically, no Hull + a doubles sweep + wins at 2 and 4 singles is Redlands’ best chance at victory.

What will actually happen?

It’s not like I have insider info with CMS, but I get the sense that Hull’s injury wasn’t serious, and he’ll be back in the lineup. CMS may have looked vulnerable, but in losses to Midd and Emory they were playing without their undefeated #2 singles player, which makes a difference. Against Emory, they were playing on quasi-Indoor courts, which is something most of the CMS players have probably only heard about in the stories. I’m not going to hit the panic button on CMS, and I’m going to predict a comprehensive 7-2 victory for the Stags, with Redlands’ wins coming at #2 doubles and #5 singles (with Hull in the lineup).

The Texas Triad

Power 6’s listed in order of likely lineup appearance:

Whitman Power 6: 71.40. Zach Hewlin (12.48), Petar Jivkov (12.07), Chase Friedman (11.48), Robert Carter (11.86), Gary Ho (11.97), Daniel Foster (11.54)

Trinity Power 6: 71.44. Chase Mayer (12.51), Wilson Lambeth (12.42), Jordan Pitts (11.98), Liam Crawley (11.84), McKenna Fujitani (11.35), Clayton Niess (11.34)

UT-Tyler Power 6: 70.82. Arthur Fagundes (13.13), Vinivio Hadlich (11.67), Daniel Rodriguez (11.75), Pablo Gomez (11.36), Joey Fischer (11.76), Jose McIntyre (11.15)

Doubles:

Whitman: #1 Hewlin/Jivkov, #2 Hoeger/Carter, #3 Ho/???

Trinity: #1 Tyer/Lambeth, #2 Niess/Mayer, #3 Pitts/Crawley

Tyler: #1 Fagundes/McIntyre, #2 Gomez/Fischer, #3 Cunningham/Elwood

As you can see, the Power 6’s are about as close as you’ll find between three relatively highly ranked teams, and I’ve always had a pretty strong affinity for all three of them. They all occupy their own niches, Whitman being the only strong program in the PNW for a long time, Trinity being the best liberal arts school in Texas (get at me Rice), and Tyler being the rare DIII public school with favorable financial aid that brings in international recruits/transfers. All three schools know how to stay in their lane, and have found ways to be successful despite not fitting the typical DIII powerhouse mold. When they play, the matches are uniformly barnburners. Here’s a quick history lesson.

2016: Trinity def. Whitman 6-3, Whitman def. Tyler 5-3, Trinity def. Tyler 5-4, Tyler def. Whitman 5-3

2015: Trinity def. Whitman 6-3, Trinity def. Tyler 6-3, Whitman def. Tyler 8-1

2014: Trinity def. Whitman 5-4, Trinity def. Tyler 9-0

2013: Tyler def. Whitman 5-4 x2, Trinity def. Tyler 6-3

As you can see, they’re mostly close matches, but one thing you’ll notice is that Trinity hasn’t lost a match to either of their two rivals for the past five years (Whitman beat Trinity 5-4 in 2011). Will this be the year one of TU’s little brothers gets off the schneid?

What’s at Stake?

NCAA bracket positioning. With the SCIAC likely to be left out of Pool C, the NCAA is probably going to end up sending two of these teams to the California region like last year. In general, the highest-ranked team will avoid the California region and be sent elsewhere to act as a #2-seed. This may sound like a bunch of hand-wavy mumbo jumbo, but basically, if a team goes 2-0 this weekend, they’ll get the chance to play someone like Wash U with an Elite Eight trip on the line, as opposed to having to go through a top 20 west school and CMS. It’s kind of a big deal.

#17 Trinity vs. #19 UT-Tyler, 4/7

Looking at the scores, you can see the Pats have been inching closer to TU over the past three years. I know Tyler would L.O.V.E to finally notch a win over their in-state rivals, and they have a great opportunity to do it here on their home courts. Early-season returns had Tyler looking like the stronger team with 6-3 losses to both Amherst and Middlebury, combined with a resounding win over Kenyon, but the Pats’ season took a turn for the worse last weekend when they lost to GAC. Despite losing three matches at home, it appears Trinity is playing better in the Lonestar State than they were playing indoors. I got a chance to see Trinity’s freshmen play last weekend, and I was impressed. Pitts has several weapons, and after watching Fujitani’s vicious returns and stylin’ bucket hat in action, I think he might be a matchup nightmare for Fischer. Here’s how I see it going down:

Trinity takes a 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 3. Fagundes evens things up with a relatively quick win over Mayer, but Trinity eventually takes over with their depth, picking up straight set wins at 2, 5, and 6 for an early clinch. The teams will split garbage-time 10-pointers to make a 6-3 final score, and Trinity continues their gradual arc of improvement that will hopefully end in a run at NCAA’s.

#17 Trinity vs. #14 Whitman

Whitman might be ranked higher, but given the UTRs, the location of the match, and the history between these two schools, you have to figure the Tigers are coming into this match as a slight favorite. If Whitman has any advantage it’s that Trinity may be coming off a long and hard-fought match against Tyler the previous day. Matchup-wise, Whitman has two good but zero great doubles teams and a #3 doubles team in flux. Trinity has been one of the better doubles teams in the country all season (putting aside the weird whooping Amherst laid on ’em). Accordingly, I think Trinity will take a 2-1 lead with wins at #1 and #2.

If that happens, it will be very difficult for Whitman to come up with four singles wins. I can definitely see Jivkov’s solid returns neutralizing Lambeth’s serve for one win. I can see Foster out-grinding Nemo (Niess) at #6 for two wins, and Hewlin is certainly capable of taking out Mayer on a good day. Ho and Fujitani will be like watching two Kirby’s go at it in Super Smash Bros because they have all the same moves, but one of them will be wearing a bucket hat. That’s got three sets written all over it. After that, Pitts will be a huge favorite over Friedman, and Crawley will have a slight edge on Carter. I see this match coming down to the wire, but I think Trinity will win 5-4 when Chas Mayer gets his first big victory of the season in 3 sets over Hewlin after straight-set victories by Pitts and Crawley at #3 and #4.

#19 UT-Tyler vs. #14 Whitman

Last year, these two teams played a couple strange matches last year. In the first, Whitman took a 2-1 doubles lead and squeaked out a 5-3 win when Hewlin saved a couple match points to beat Budd in a 10-pointer (they had decided to play 10-pointers because they were racing rain). Later, the Pats beat Whitman at NCAA’s when they swept doubles and held on for dear life to reverse the 5-3 scoreline. This is me biding time because I really don’t have a lot to say about this match up.

I think doubles will be key. Both teams have been good-but-not-great, but Tyler will have home court advantage, and they will have played high-level doubles more recently. I think they come away with a 2-1 lead with wins at #1 and #3. Singles is even more of enigma for me. Fagundes has been en fuego, so I think he’ll win in straights against Hewlin, but after that, I have no idea. If Whitman is going to win, they’ll need big days from the juniors (Friedman, Carter, Ho) at the heart of their singles lineup, because that appears to be where Tyler is strongest. In the end, I’m going to go with a 5-4 Tyler victory with wins at #1, #3, and #4 singles in a match featuring four three setter and three tiebreakers.

There you have it! It should be a fun weekend, and it all gets started with Tyler/Trinity at 3PM tomorrow. Get out there and stroke some fuzzies.