This Week In West: March 13-20

Wow, the Stag-Hen may have started off with a little bit of a fizzle, but it finished with a bang. The other writers are sure to chip in with their thoughts, but here are a few of my observations since the tournament included my three top teams and another one of my top 7:

  • Emory is playing the big matches well – while the Eagles have gone down in doubles a couple of times, they have swept both CMS and Chicago in doubles. CMS was a couple 10-pointers away from being swept 9-0, which just does not happen. I’m stubbornly going to keep Middlebury at the top of my power rankings because I believe in seniors, but the rest of the country should be scared.
  • CMS is very vulnerable. Though they have two great resume wins over CMU and Trinity, the Stags have shown that they have weaknesses that can be exploited. Hull, Mork, and Macey are all good but not great for their respective positions. I was hoping Hull would be able to step into the #2 spot and succeed, and the idea of CMS as a national championship contender was always predicated on that assumption. They have plenty of time to figure everything out, but they really got beat down today. It’s difficult, psychologically, to come back from something like that thinking, “yeah, we could definitely beat that Emory team on the right day. They only barely destroyed us on our home courts.”
  • Trinity needs Deuel to win to be successful. This really isn’t all that complicated. We always knew TU would be relatively weak at the heart of their singles lineup. It looks like Niess might be dealing with an injury, making their depth that much more suspect. If Trinity is going to win big matches going forward, they need both Krull and Deuel to be winning matches.
  • Pomona-Pitzer is really hard to beat on their home courts. This is pretty straight forward, but they just flipped a 3-6 loss into a 5-4 win over Trinity thanks to the change in scenery. I also have a feeling that win over Wesleyan is going to look pretty good at the end of the season. They’re a team that’s playing with a lot of belief, which is something they’ll need going into a stretch against the NESCAC gauntlet.
  • I shouldn’t have gulped the Tyler Kool-Aid. I really thought the Pats were going to be stronger in deep singles than they’ve ended up being. I interpreted Frankie Fischer’s absence from the singles lineup as a sign of Tyler’s strength rather than a sign of Frankie’s struggles. They leave the Stag-Hen without a win despite leading 2-1 with three first sets twice, and that stings. They don’t have a win over a ranked team, and their remaining chances are against Redlands, GAC (again), Wash U, Trinity, and Whitman. If they get shut out, I don’t really know what the ranking committee will do with them.

Be that as it is, we have a huge week ahead of ourselves. The Texas squads are still on spring break, and Whitman is making its annual pilgrimage to Claremont, so we’ll have some West-on-West crime in the coming days. Additionally, the NESCAC teams are starting their seasons, and while D3Northeast is sure to keep you abreast of their comings and goings with Spring Break articles, I would like to give my two cents on a few of the key matches. We’ll do this Regional Round-up style and go by date.

It's a gut-check week for the Bulldogs
It’s a gut-check week for the Bulldogs

March 14: #6 Trinity vs. #16 Wesleyan

I don’t really know what to make of this match, but it certainly is a good opportunity for Wesleyan to pick up a huge win. Teams coming off the Stag-Hen are notoriously fatigued and tend to have some of their worst results. Wesleyan, but comparison, has been having a much more leisurely spring break so far. The Cards seem to be without specific strengths and weaknesses, so, again, the key for Trinity will be taking advantage of their strengths. That and doubles. I’m predicting TU will rebound from the tough loss to P-P with another solid doubles performance to take a 2-1 lead with wins at 1 and 3. Krull will continue his hot play to get TU’s third point, and Mayer will come up big at #4 in three sets to give TU their 4th point. Wesleyan will dominate at 5 and 6, and Lambeth’s long weekend will wear on him enough that he’ll drop another close one at 3. It will all come down to a phenomenal #2 singles match between Deuel and Chen, and I think Deuel will come through after having a day to rest after three brutal singles matches for a 5-4 Trinity win. This one could easily go either way, but I gotta go with my region. (Side note: Wesleyan has easily the worst athletic website of any ranked team in the country).

March 14: #10 Pomona-Pitzer vs. #30 Skidmore

I’m sure either D3Regional or D3Northeast will have a Spring Break preview, but I might as well add my prediction, which is a 7-2 Pomona-Pitzer victory. The Hens are starting to play some good doubles, GMah is looking fantastic, and the Revolving Door may look even better than it was last year. If Yaz can start winning at #1, and the Hens can pick up some sweeps against more good teams, they may very well be looking at another top 5 season.

March 15: #15 Redlands vs. #21 UT-Tyler

Both of the these teams are facing gut checks. Redlands is a team that has started each of the last three years relatively strong before seeing their season slip away after taking a hard knock on the chin. They absolutely have to bounce back this week if they want a shot at making NCAAs. Tyler is coming off two of the most demoralizing losses imaginable. We all know confidence is key in tennis, and maintaining that belief can be difficult to do when losses start stacking up. In order to beat Redlands, I think they’ll absolutely have to win at #1 and #2 singles. That means Budd will have to recover from a couple tough losses. Predictions:

#1 Doubles: F. Fischer/Fagundes (UTT) def. Dulle/Ly (Redlands) 8-6

#2 Doubles: Budd/McIntyre (UTT) def. Lipscomb/Wilson (Redlands) 8-4

#3 Doubles: Patterson/Johnson (Redlands) def. Gomez/J. Fischer (UTT) 9-7

#1 Singles: Budd (UTT) def. Dulle (Redlands) 4-6, 7-5, 7-5

#2 Singles: Fagundes (UTT) def. Johnson (Redlands) 6-3, 7-6

#3 Singles: Lipscomb (Redlands) def. J. Fischer (UTT) 7-5, 7-5

#4 Singles: Wilson (Redlands) def. Gomez (UTT) 6-4, 6-2

#5 Singles: Hunt (Redlands) def. McIntyre (UTT) 3-6, 7-6, 6-4

#6 Singles: Ly (Redlands) def. McCarthy (UTT) 7-5, 6-4

As you can see, I’ve got Redlands winning 5-4 with the two key matches coming at #1 and #5 singles. I’m going with the experience of Hunt at #5 over McIntyre, the freshman who has been the lone bright spot at the bottom of the singles lineup for the Pats. This one could really go either way, but I’m not sure how much emotional gas is left in the tank for UTT after the Stag-Hen.

March 15: #10 Pomona-Pitzer vs. #5 Amherst

I’m going to leave this one to D3Northeast because I have no idea how good Amherst will be. I will add that it’s a good opportunity for PP to pick up a key Pool C victory in what is likely Amherst’s first significant outdoor action of the season.

March 16: #14 Whitman vs. #7 Bowdoin

This is also a defacto Whitman spring break preview
This is also a defacto Whitman spring break preview

This Bowdoin match will be a great measuring stick to see where Whitman is at this year. The Squirrels have traditionally struggled over spring break, especially in their first match in the California heat, but they’ll be playing a relatively heat-naive team in the Polar Bears (though Bowdoin will have one match against Trinity CT to acclimate). I’m not going to try to preview this match because I have no way of knowing what the Bowdoin lineup will look like, but I’m going to predict a 6-3 Bowdoin win and refer to D3Northeast for further analysis.

March 17: #14 Whitman vs. #3 CMS

Whitman is actually a team that has played CMS relatively tight the last couple times out (relative to how badly CMS was beating the rest of the 10-20 teams), and they’ll have a slight advantage in the fact that CMS will be coming off a match against UConn earlier that morning. CMS is pretty deep, so they might shuffle around their 5 and 6 singles players, but I’m assuming the Stags will be playing basically a full lineup for both matches. I think the keys to the match will be doubles, #1, #2 singles. Readers of the blog can plainly see that I’m pretty high on Hewlin right now, but he hasn’t really played against echelon #1 singles players yet in his career. We can safely call Butts an upper echelon player. If Whitman is going to score an upset, they’ll need their #1 and #2 doubles teams (Hewlin/Locklear and Hoeger/Jivkov) to build on their solid recent play to give them a 2-1 lead. Then they’ll need Hewlin to play phenomenal and beat Butts and Locklear to take advantage of a struggling Hull. Then they’ll need someone at the bottom of the singles lineup to take advantage of a tired opponent. More likely, I think CMS takes 1 and 3 doubles, wins at 1, 3, 4, 5, and 6 singles routinely with Locklear coming through in a 10-pointer for a 7-2 final score.

March 19: #14 Whitman vs. #15 Redlands

This might very well be the match of the week. Whitman has beaten Redlands the last two times out in a pair of tight matches, and you know the Bulldogs will be aching to exact some revenge. Whitman will probably be looking for the win that keeps them in the top 20. This is another match where a lot of pressure falls on Hewlin and Locklear because Redlands has looked more vulnerable at #1 and #2 singles than anywhere else thus far. We’ll do a brief match-by-match

#1 Doubles: Hewlin/Locklear (WC) def. Dulle/Ly (Redlands) 9-8

#2 Doubles: Lipscomb/Wilson (Redlands) def. Jivkov/Hoeger (WC) 9-8

#3 Doubles: Patterson/Johnson (Redlands) def. Carter/Rapoport (WC) 8-6

#1 Singles: Hewlin (WC) def. Dulle (Redlands) 7-5, 7-6

#2 Singles: Locklear (WC) def. Johnson (Redlands) 7-5, 1-6, 7-6

#3 Singles: Lipscomb (Redlands) def. Friedman (WC) 4-6, 7-5, 6-1

#4 Singles: Wilson (Redlands) def. Jivkov (WC) 7-6, 3-6, 6-2

#5 Singles: Hunt (Redlands) def. Carter (WC) 7-5, 6-4

#6 Singles: Rapoport (WC) def. Ly (Redlands) 6-4, 5-7, 6-3

As you can see, I think these two teams are nearly identical in ability, and it should be a great match. Neither team is especially experienced, so neither team has that X-Factor going for them. Ultimately, I’m guessing the home court advantage will push Redlands over the top in another 5-4 win, and I don’t know when the last time I picked Redlands to win two 5-4 matches in a row was.

March 19: #3 CMS vs. #5 Amherst

Check back later this week (after we’ve seen Amherst play) for a full preview.

March 20: #14 Whitman and #23 UCSC vs. #22 Tufts

Remember UCSC?!?!? I know it’s easy to forget about them because they’ve been busy playing DI teams. Tufts was accommodating enough to schedule them after the Slugs had a couple rain outs, which was huge for Cruz, but I have to say it was probably a bad idea for the Jumbos. (I know they had to play on the same day because of the dates, but they might be setting themselves up for failure). Now, they’re scheduled to play Whitman and Cruz back-to-back on their second day playing outdoor tennis. I have no idea how good Tufts is, but I don’t see this ending well for them. They very well might be a tired Whitman squad at the end of their Spring Break, but I think they’ll end up losing to Cruz 5-4 on the back end of the double header, which would be an absolutely huge win for the Slugs. We have them at #23 in our Power Rankings, but they’re much lower in the ITA rankings mostly because of poor scheduling. A win over Tufts could vault them back in the top 25, which is where they belong. Both D3Northeast and I will give these matches a more thorough preview after the Tufts/Vassar match.

March 20: #3 CMS vs. #7 Bowdoin

Check back later this week (after we’ve seen Amherst play) for a full preview. I’ll be updating this article periodically.

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