Ok D3 Tennis fans, it’s finally here. The road to the national championship (or whomever gets second behind CMS) starts this weekend. The blog will be covering each regional with different analysis. I am excited to say that I think the NCAA committee did a great job in putting together the bracket. I believe it is fair and doesn’t give much bias to anyone. Like I mentioned in my tweet, Hopkins has an easy region, but then will face CMS so it all balances out. Last year the extremely weak Wash U region is now bolstered by flying in a solid 2 seed and bringing in some other mid level teams that will make it interesting. Here is the breakdown:
Favorites: Wash U Bears
I don’t think anyone would argue that Wash U is the overwhelming favorite to come out of this region. They have only lost to CMS this year and have proven they are the #2 team in the country by taking care of winning the UAAs as well. I think I could argue that Amherst is on equal footing as this Wash U team, but we will wait until the second week of the tournament to discuss that. It’s tournament time so that means Wash U will bring it’s best. Follmer has an impressive streak of final four appearances (I think 7?) and they look to extend that again this year. Doubles and the heart of the lineup will equal success for this team as it has all year. Putterman has had zero success at the top of the lineup against regional opponents, but has pulled out some great national level wins. It is funny because the success of Carswell will probably vault Putterman in to individuals only because the ranking committee doesn’t want to look bad by putting a 2 player in over a 1 player. But with Carswell, Bush, and Noack at 2-4, Wash U is comfortable after taking a lead in doubles. I think Whitman can definitely scare the Bears as they are usually a strong doubles team and have great depth as well. I just think that Wash U will have too much. By no means is this a guarantee, but you never bet against Follmer and I wouldn’t do it here. Wash U will benefit from being on their home courts and Whitman is a long way from home.
Underdog: Whitman Squirrels
D3West here. I’m going to address the elephant in the room right off the bat. Whitman hasn’t won an NCAA match since 2007. Their Round-of-32 match with Sewanee feels eerily similar to their 2011 loss to Whitewater in that they’re playing an unranked team that has shown flashes of competency this season while flying under the radar in St. Louis. If the Squirrels don’t do their homework and get up for this match, they’re probably going to lose. Schober should have an edge over his old academy-mate, and that will be enough for the Tigers if Whitman comes out flat in doubles. That being said, if they can get the monkey off their back, they could pose a pretty serious threat to Wash U.
They’re one of the few teams in the country with three consistently good doubles teams, and if their singles depth has come together, they’ll put a scare into the Bears. Unfortunately, they don’t match up very well with Wash U. Putterman hasn’t been very good for Wash U, but Malesovas has been worse for Whitman. La Cava has been great for Whitman, but Carswell has been even better for Wash U. Riggs’ heavy balls will sit up in Noack’s strike zone. He’ll just flatten it out and pound away. Kratky is gonna slaughter the freshman, Jivkov. It just feels like a beating to me. The two places in the singles lineup I really think Whitman can win is at #3 where Roston hasn’t lost a singles match all season, and #6 where Rivers seems to be finding his form. All told, it looks like the Whitties will need a doubles sweep to beat the Bears, and I don’t see them winning at #1. I think they win #3 dubs in a 5-1 loss with a couple close singles matches still hanging in the balance at the time of decision. If Malesovas can sneak up on Putterman like he did on Ybarra in last year’s NCAAs, it could get really tight.
Dark Horse (as Dark as they come): Sewanee Tigers
I am giving Sewanee some credit just because they deserve a small blurb. Conference player of the year Avery Schober has led this team into the national discussion, but I don’t actually think they will come out of this region. They would have to pull off two rather large upsets to do so and they just aren’t ready to do that yet. Sewanee may be a team to look for in the future, but for now they are just a dangerous team that might make you sweat for a moment.
Interesting match-ups: I think there are two interesting matches of note besides the potential final between Wash U and Whitman. The first happens in the first round between Coe and Earlham. These two teams played last season in the second round of nationals as they were a part of the unbelievably weak regional. Coe was the 2 seed and Earlham was the 3. This time around, Coe is the 4 seed with Earlham as the 5 which I think is about right and what it should have been last season. I think both teams aren’t quite as good as they were last year, but this one could be close. Coe won last year 5-3. I think Coe is a more seasoned team and will win again. I will go with a 5-3 victory this time around. The second matched will occur in the second round between Sewanee and Whitman. Sewanee has to defeat Elmhurst in the first round to get here which I believe they will. This was a pretty terrible draw for Elmhurst making their first appearance in nationals ever. Sewanee is on the edge of breaking through, but hasn’t quite gotten there yet. They had a horrendous spring break in California losing to Trinity CT 9-0 and Tufts 5-4, but bounced back to compete well against some of the big boys like Kenyon 7-2, Emory 7-2, Middlebury 7-2, and Washington & Lee 5-4. Yes those are all losses, but they have shown they have some talent. Schober has had a great year and he will need to continue that if he wants his team to pull an upset. I don’t think they will, but depending on doubles, this match with Whitman could be close.