Upset Alert! Who to watch out for at NCAAs

Before I begin my article, just wanted to quickly plug our 2016 NCAA Tournament Bracket Challenge!!!  It works the exact same way as the NCAA Basketball Tournament, and apparently the winner gets interviewed by D3NE.  I’m not sure if that’s a prize or a punishment.  All kidding aside, this is always extremely fun, and I spend way too much time researching first round matches between Yeshiva & Goucher, Grinnell & Edgewood, and Franciscan & Grove City.  I actually tied for first with NYU’s Matt DeMichiel last year (DeMichiel was closer with the score of the final and technically won but I say it’s a tie), and those first round matches played a big part in determining the winners.  Click on the link above to learn more about the challenge and ENTER!  Now back to your regularly scheduled article.

With this year’s tournament kicking off tomorrow, the blog is hard at work putting together regional previews.  However, as D3 Regional, I’m not really assigned to a region, meaning I’m left out in the cold.  However, as the underdog representative, I wanted to take a closer look at the #2 and #3 seeds across the draw, and determine which teams had the best shot at upsetting one of the eight #1 seeds before the quarterfinals.  First of all, here are all of the #2 and #3 seeds, ranked by blog power ranking.  This is using last week’s power rankings because D3ASouth is currently doing his Excel formula voodoo right now on this week’s rankings, so this may change slightly, but not significantly.  I think Hopkins will probably move up a few spots and ultimately be above Mary Washington.  Anyway, in parentheses after each team is our power ranking for each school.  Here’s the list:

1. Emory region #2 Trinity TX (14): Our highest ranked team is stuck in Emory’s region.  Sorry Tigers.
2. Wash U region #2 UW-Whitewater (16): Whitewater is the clear #2 in this region, and should battle Wash U in the third round for a chance at the quarters.
3. Case Western region #2 Kenyon (17): Assuming they take out a tricky Kalamazoo team, Kenyon looks to be on a collision course with Case.  This reminds me of an absolute battle these teams had in the 2013 NCAA third round, where Kenyon took out Case 5-4 to make the quarters.
4. Chicago region #2 Gustavus (18): GAC is always a tricky team, but Chicago swept singles just about a month ago after losing 2 of 3 doubles.  Two three-setters though, so there’s a chance.
5. CMS region #2 Whitman (19): It’s strange not seeing PP in the draw this year, but Whitman moves up to the #2 seed after rolling through the NWC tournament.  They’ll have to get through UT-Tyler first, who they beat 5-3 a month ago.
6. Middlebury region #2 Skidmore (20): Skidmore has been a darn consistent team this year, dominating the Liberty League and coming close against both PP and Amherst.  They gave Midd a little trouble literally ten days ago, with Leung taking out Noah Farrell, but ultimately fell 7-2.
7. Bowdoin region #3 Stevens (22): Stevens has a case to the #2 seed in this region over MIT, as they’ve probably had the more consistent season.  Either way, they’ll likely face those Engineers in the second round in what should be a terrific match.
8. CMS region #3 UT-Tyler (23): UT Tyler has had a year without a big win, though they’ve come close many a time.  They’ll have a great chance once again this Friday against Whitman.
9. Bowdoin region #2 MIT (24): MIT is playing confident tennis right now with wins over Brandeis, Tufts, and a dominating win over Babson to win NEWMAC’s.  They have to get through Stevens first, but they have the talent to pose a challenge to Bowdoin.
10. CMU region #2 Mary Washington (26): Mary Wash gets the #2 seed over Hop after beating them 5-4 at UMW.  This match should be a battle once again.
11. CMU region #3 Johns Hopkins (28): Hop’s power ranking should move way up in a few hours after their easy wins over Haverford and Swarthmore, and they also have the talent to give CMU some trouble, who they lost to 5-4 in mid-April.
12. Chicago region #3 Coe (32): Coe didn’t just lose 9 matches to Chicago on 1/30, they actually lost 14-1.  I love the Kohawks, but they will be hard-pressed to beat GAC and then Chicago.
13. Emory region #3 Sewanee (35): Sewanee is playing much better tennis now than they were a few weeks ago, and I think they can pose a challenge to Trinity.  To Emory though, I unfortunately think not.  These teams did play this year and Sewanee won 2 of 3 doubles, but Emory rolled through the singles with ease.
14. Middlebury region #3 TCNJ (38): TCNJ will be hard pressed to make the third round as they fell 8-1 to Skidmore in April.  If Pierce Cooper can find his swag again at #1 and TCNJ can play better doubles, you never know.
15. Case region #3 Kalamazoo (41): Kalamazoo will be big underdogs against Kenyon in the second round, but they have played well against ranked teams this year, losing 5-4 to both Denison and Whitewater.  Branden Metzler vs. Sam Geier should be a great match as well.
16. Wash U region #3 Rose Hulman (UR): The Fightin’ Engineers get a bye to the second round to take on Whitewater, where they will be huge underdogs as they’ve lost 8-1 to Wash U, Coe, and DePauw this year.

Thoughts on the bracket:

Overall, I think the committee did a pretty solid job, with geographical restrictions taken into account.  After the #1 seeds, the next six teams in our power rankings are all #2 seeds, which makes sense.  Mary Wash and Johns Hopkins as the #2 and #3 seeds in CMU’s region seems to make sense as well.  Rose Hulman as a #3 seed is certainly a stretch, but it goes back to the restrictions.  NC Wesleyan and W&L should both be seeded ahead of Rose Hulman, but they are unfortunately in this year’s “region of death” with Emory and Trinity TX.  I also don’t see why Trinity TX is going to Emory instead of UT-Tyler.  Both of these would have been a flight from Texas.  UT-Tyler is ranked behind Trinity, so I feel like Emory as the #1 seed should get the lower ranked team.  That would have been a region with a #2 seed about the same power ranking as Bowdoin’s and CMU’s regions, though I guess that then makes CMS the region of death once again.  Either way, I think CMS and Emory both come out of their regions, it’s just a tougher path for Emory than I think such a dominating season warranted.

#UPSETALERT:

What #1 seed is in most danger of falling before the quarters?

The Guru himself answered this in his Q&A piece, but let’s look at the numbers above.  I think our power rankings certainly tell the story.  Trinity has a chance, but without Adam Krull, Emory is heavily favored.  I think that’s a special case because of geography, because I think the next two #2 seeds have the best shots at pulling upsets.  Here are the likely matchups:

Wash U vs. UW-Whitewater:

Here’s the box score from the 5-4 battle about a month ago.  The two teams split three setters at #3 and #5, with senior Tyler Kratky at #3 ultimately getting the win.  I think Wash U is playing much better now than they were a month ago.  For instance, I think Jason Haugen at #5, with more match experience this year, now has a great chance to take that third set against Zane Navratil.  Jake Humphreys destroyed John Carswell the first time around, and I think Carswell is playing much better now as well.  I think the experienced Warhawks will come into this match confident, and if they can take a couple doubles matches like they did the first time, things can definitely get close.

Case Western vs. Kenyon:

Oh boy.  We will finally find out who the 5^th best team was at the Stag-Hen!!!  Anyway, this match has been a long time coming, and I think it will be an absolute battle.  Case, although always studs on the doubles court, just didn’t look that great in singles at UAA’s, losing four matches to Brandeis.  Kenyon obviously struggled at Indoor Nationals with two 5-4 losses and an eighth place finish, but they did beat UT-Tyler 5-4 and almost took out Carnegie Mellon, also losing 5-4.  I think CJ Krimbill should be slightly favored over Sam Geier in an outdoor match, and I also like James Fojtasek at #2.  D3Central will get more into the specific matchups, but I honestly think the rest of the singles matches should all be really close.

There are a couple other matchups that, should they happen, I think have the potential to be close.  However, these two teams are big wild cards, and there’s a strong possibility they don’t even make the third round.

#2 MIT

MIT could very well lose in the second round to Stevens, or they could take out Bowdoin and have a trip out to Kalamazoo.  Considering MIT beat Tufts who beat Bowdoin, it’s not out of the realm of possibility.  However, MIT also lost badly to Bates, so the first scenario is almost just as likely.  MIT is playing much better doubles lately, and Alex Cauneac at #1, Tyler Barr at #3, and Sean Ko at #4 have turned into locks at their spots.  However, Bowdoin is so good at grinding and should be big favorites at #2, #5, and #6.

#3 Johns Hopkins

Hopkins is in the same boat as MIT.  They have a second round match against Mary Wash that they could very much lose, but then they could also play great and take out Carnegie Mellon.  Buxbaum is still hit or miss, bit Jeremy Dubin and Nicholas Garcia are playing better at #3.  I like Emerson Walsh at #6, but I still have my concerns at #4 and #5.  Who knows which Hopkins team will show up, but if Hop does play CMU, there should certainly be fireworks.

What are the best second round matchups?

The other bloggers will go more into depth on the specific matchups, but some regions have really good 2 vs. 3 matchups, while others do not.  Here are some of the best second round matchups in my humble opinion:

#2 Trinity TX. Vs. #3 Sewanee

Trinity should definitely be favored, but Sewanee is a real tricky team.  They play good doubles, and although Paxton Deuel should be a big favorite against Avery Schober, it wouldn’t be out of the realm of possibility for Schober to win.  Eric Roddy has had a terrific senior year and him vs. Chas Mayer should also be a nice match.  Sewanee has bounced back extremely well from their loss to Oglethorpe with a 7-2 win over Washington & Lee and also a dominating performance in their conference tournament.  Trinity is the favorite, but Sewanee has the doubles play to make it a close match.  Trinity 5-3.

#2 Whitman vs. #3 UT-Tyler:

Here’s the score from the first match which was a battle.  I think Whitman has the advantage with depth, but #1-4 should all be toss ups.  I’ll leave this to D3West to preview more in depth, but I think Whitman will once again win a tight match.  However, I think both of these teams lack the firepower to give CMS a scare.  Whitman 5-3.

#2 MIT vs. #3 Stevens:

This should be an absolutely terrific match between two very evenly matched teams.  MIT is a huge wildcard and we know Stevens will bring the firepower.  I think MIT should be slightly favored at #2-4, though Charles Drake at #3 battles with the best of them.  Matt Heinrich vs. Alex Cauneac at #1 is a battle of experience versus youth, and I honestly think that one could decide it.  #5 and #6 are both toss-ups for me, as Stevens is probably more consistent at these spots.  MIT is talented but they are very off and on.  I think it really will come down to doubles and #1 singles.  Unfortunately for both of these teams, they will tire themselves out to face what should be a well-rested Bowdoin team.  MIT 5-4

#2 Mary Washington vs. #3 Johns Hopkins

ASouth already covered this one in his CMU region preview, and I also think Hopkins will win and turn around their earlier match.  Once again, both of these teams will tire each other out for the chance to face a CMU team that should roll through Yeshiva/Goucher.  One match at a time though fellas, one match at a time.  Johns Hopkins 5-4

Are there any other teams I should watch out for?

It’s a tough world out there for the #4 seeds and below.  #4 seed NC Wesleyan and #5 seed Washington & Lee in Emory’s region are two strong teams, but they’ll beat each other up in the first round for the chance to play a nicely rested Emory team on the Eagles’ courts.  #4 seed UCSC is talented but I don’t think they can put it all together against CMS.  Those three teams are all talented enough to make some noise, but are all huge underdogs.

Look for much more coverage from our team all tournament long and be sure to enter our bracket challenge!!!