There’s been one of my ranked teams that hasn’t really gotten all that much press lately, despite them playing a lot of matches on both coasts. That team is Mary Washington, who is basically like the rock of the region. They chill in the 15-25 range and make me write about them even though I feel like I know exactly what’s going to happen in every one of their matches. Nevertheless, this team matters in my region and they have a few big matches coming up. I’ll recap what they’ve done the past week or so and then get into some preview work for their matches. The first one is today at 8PM ET against Pomona!
What They’ve Done
They beat Sewanee, 5-4
http://umweagles.com/sports/mten/2016-17/files/umwmt-04.htm
Any other year, this would have been a poor result for the Eagles, but this year, the Sewanee Tigers are here to play. As you can see from the box score, UMW gritted out two tight three setters to win this one, one of them being Brandon Griffin over Avery Schober at #1. This has individual implication, obviously, but the big thing here is that Griffin stepped up over another senior when his team needed him the most. Look for both these teams to hang around the top 25-30 for the season.
They beat CLU and Cal Tech out West to start Spring Break
http://umweagles.com/sports/mten/2016-17/files/umwmt-07.htm
http://umweagles.com/sports/mten/2016-17/files/umwmt-08.htm
UMW has scheduled their spring break this year with CLU and Cal Tech first, to get used to the nice California sun and outdoor courts. Even if it’s 60 degrees and sunny here in NY, that doesn’t mean a trip out to California is all that bad. Actually, it’s pretty damn good. Nothing really to see from the box scores above. I do want to give Cal Tech #1 Pathireddy a nice shoutout as he routined Griffin. Griffin is a real good player so he should be proud of that. Hope to see him at Nationals this year.
What They’re About to Do
UMW @ Pomona Pitzer, Today, 8PM
I know it’s not the best look to get a preview out literally the day before, but we do it for a lot of things so I’m going to go ahead and say that this is KOSHER. Pomona is #12 in our Power Rankings (that will change with today’s edition) while UMW is #23. Do I think UMW has the chance for an upset? A small one. But I think overall, Pomona Pitzer is just too solid across the lineup for UMW to pull it on the road. I’m glad that these two teams are playing because it gives me some context on how good the Eagles actually are this year.
If you’re going to beat Pomona, you’re going to have to beat them in the weak underbelly that is the center of their singles lineup. They’ve been trying to figure their doubles teams out as well which could be a nice place to start for the Eagles. UMW was able to take the top 2 doubles matches against Sewanee and it looks like their decision to have Matt Miles at the #2 doubles spot is paying off. UMW needs that 2-1 doubles lead if they’re going to get the upset because I don’t have the confidence that they’ll be able to take 4 singles matches on the road.
Going into singles, my things to watch are as follows:
Will Michael Fleming play?
If you don’t know who Michael Fleming is, he’s a freshman for UMW. He played as high as #2 singles for the Eagles in their big win against Sewanee, but has not been seen against Cal Tech or CLU. That’s a bad sign for the Eagles because I would assume he’d get at least one of those matches in. I’m going to assume he’s not playing, meaning everyone in the lineup moves up – not a great start at an upset. If Fleming plays, this whole match becomes different because UMW might have the advantage of #3, #4, and maybe #6 singles if he does. That means a 2-1 lead can get them there. Without Fleming, I see UMW potentially going down 6-3.
Brandon Griffin vs Jake Yasgoor, #1 Singles – Griffin vs. Yasgoor is going to be a good one, but I think Yasgoor has found his way in his home state. He’s coming off a 1 and 0 thrashing of Chase Lipscomb, which really has me impressed. He also took out David Reed 3 and 1 of Newport as well. Griffin has an uphill battle here so I’m not feeling to great here.
Patrick Hughes vs. Josh Kim, #3 Singles – PP has been mixing and matching from 3/4/5 singles spots all year, but I expect Kim to be the guy here. Neither of these players are currently considered top at their position, making this a match to watch and a potential decider if it gets close.Again, the home court really favors Kim, but he’s had a rough year so far playing in a spot that might be slightly high for him. Look for a close match here.
The Prediction – PP def UMW 6-3 without Michael Fleming
UMW @ Redlands, 3/11 @ 3PM ET
Again, this match will be way different if Michael Fleming plays. Losing a #2 player is very tough. Redlands is coming off a huge win over Pomona Pitzer and are really making their depth known around DIII. They just beat Swarthmore in a decisive 6-3 win that wasn’t really that close to follow up their 5-4 win against Pomona. Redlands is strong where UMW will struggle, especially if Fleming doesn’t play – the bottom of the lineup. Suchodolski and Avery Davis lost a total of 1 game against Swarthmore in singles. 1 game! Redlands also plays strong doubles all around despite their 2-1 deficit against Pomona. UMW might be able to catch them at the top two spots, where they lost to PP, but going into the Redlands desert and taking swing matches is just not something I’d bet on. The way I see this going, I see Redlands taking 2 of 3 doubles (maybe #2 and #3 doubles) and then taking 5 of hte 6 singles to win 7-2. We used to have close matches between UMW and Redlands but it looks like Redlands is up this year. They have to make sure they avoid an upset bid on UMW’s last Spring Break match.
Well, that’s all I got for UMW Spring Break – not much, but just a quick update on a steady team that hangs around. Tweet at me with questions or mention stuff in the comments. ASouth, OUT.