Happy Friday morning, boys and girls. Quick post from me today (when does that ever happen?) In a span of days that should be totally dominated by UAA coverage, I’m here to bring you a little light to help you through these dark times. Later on I’ll get to the Tufts vs Bates match happening this afternoon, but for now I want to look at the bigger picture. CMU beat Case 6-3 yesterday morning, opening up the very real possibility that the UAA could get four of five Pool-C bids this year. This is a nightmare scenario to any NE lover like myself. It puts Williams in an absolute must-win situation every time they’re not playing a team named Middlebury or Bowdoin, and even if they succeed in that mission there’s no guarantee they make NCAAs. The most concrete consequence of CMU’s win today is that teams like Wesleyan and Amherst have virtually no shot to make NCAAs without winning NESCACs. Wesleyan has only one “bad” loss so far (PP, although we’re in a tough spot when a top-10 loss qualifies as a bad loss), but now all 5 UAA teams have better resumes. Wesleyan still has a slim chance, but even if the Cards make a run to the NESCAC finals, there’s no guarantee that they’ll make NCAAs (although it would certainly put them back into the conversation). Basically, with CMU’s “upset,” the NE’s overall hopes for Pool-C shrunk significantly. I still believe the Ephs will win the matches they need to, and be the last team in, but even if everything goes according to chalk, there will be a big 3-way debate for the final two spots (UAA 4th place, Case, and Williams). For now, NE fans, shrug your shoulders, root for the Ephs, and let’s look ahead to Friday’s NE action.
#12 Tufts @ #24 Bates, Friday at 4 p.m.
Intro/Doubles: Tufts lineup hasn’t been the same in back to back matches since midway through the Jumbo’s spring break trip (13 matches ago). Therefore, it’s almost impossible to predict who will be playing in what spot on Sunday, but here’s my best guess. Tufts’s weakest points have been its doubles, and the tip-top of its singles lineup, conveniently where Bates is the strongest. This has the makings of a somewhat closer match than originally anticipated (at least what I anticipated). Bates will also be desperate here. After their 6-3 loss to Wesleyan (the fact that their match was less than 48 hours ago is super helpful when it came time to write this preview), they REALISTICALLY need to win this match if they want to have any shot of making NESCACs. There was a whole ordeal last year with a protest and I honestly never fully understood it. This year could be heading in a similar direction with a Bobcats win, but let’s see if that happens before I get all up into my NESCAC handbook again. A Jumbo win later today effectively eliminates Bates from postseason play. Yes, they still have Williams and Bowdoin to go, but they would need to win both matches in order to qualify (due to head to head losses against both Amherst and Tufts). For Tufts, their top-15 ranking will be on the line, and their precarious hold on the 5th spot in the conference. The only way Tufts is making NCAAs is by winning the conference’s Pool-A bid (or by beating Bowdoin twice, once at the end of the regular season and once in the tournament, en route to a NESCAC Finals loss, but even then it could still be murky.) For today’s match, Bates should be favored at #1 doubles, but the lower doubles are more toss-ups. Bates got a nice win at #3 against Wesleyan this week, so perhaps that team has finally turned it around. All in all, I’m going to go with another 2-1 lead for Bates, heading into singles play, where Tufts will probably be favored at five of six spots.
#1) Gupte (Tufts) vs Rosen (Bates). Here is the spot where the Bo’s won’t be favored. Rosen’s loss to Chen on Wednesday wasn’t helpful, but he’s still in pretty decent shape to make NCAAs. A loss to Gupte (or whoever plays #1 for Tufts this afternoon) could put him behind some of the #2’s (Smolyar, Trinka, etc.) and would be very damaging. Gupte has been all sorts of up and down this season, but he’ll need his best tennis to take down the steady Rosen. Bates, 6-2, 6-4.
#2) Glickman (Tufts) vs Ellis (Bates). Two feisty guys who usually leave a lot on the court, this one is going to come down to Glickman’s shot making. If he’s on, he’ll get his team back on track, which is exactly what I think will happen, Tufts, 7-6, 4-6, 6-1.
#3) Ali (Tufts) vs Scott (Bates). A week ago I would’ve taken Mista Zain in a heartbeat. But Scott’s beatdown of Eusebio on Wednesday was very impressive. That being said, while one win can impress me, it does not make a believer out of me. Ali is kind of like that utility guy that makes his career in the majors by playing any position asked of him. I’m pretty sure he’s played #1, #6, and basically every spot in between so far this year for the Jumbos. Gimme the utility man. Tufts, 6-3, 6-1.
#4) Jacobson (Tufts) vs Ordway (Bates). As impressive as Scott was earlier this week, Ordway was the opposite. Samson beat him 0&0. Jacobson is a pretty consistent player, who has been having a good senior year, and I like him to take down Ordway in straight sets. Tufts, 6-2, 6-1.
#5) Cary (Tufts) vs Quijano (Bates). Quijano has been a mainstay in the Cats’ lineup this year, while Cary has been in and out more times than a California burger. However, Cary has done well with his time in the lineup, while Quijano has struggled in his first year, going 1-8 against ranked teams. Cary’s superbreaker loss to Raghavan (Williams) last weekend should be encouraging, not disheartening. Tufts, 7-5, 6-4.
#6) Coran (Tufts) vs Feldman (Bates). Like Cary, Coran has made the most of his time in the Tufts lineup this spring. Like Quijano, Feldman has struggled in big matches, but he did take a set from Roberts on Wednesday. I’ll take Coran here, but perhaps a bit closer than expected. Tufts, 6-3, 4-6, 6-3
MATCH PREDICTION: Some drama here as I have Tufts winning both 3-setters to earn a 6-3 victory, but if Bates doesn’t take a doubles lead, then this match could be quick. Something to note, it might rain today in Maine, and if they play indoors then all bets are off.