Another region held in the Central, but with an away team as the top seed, it always brings for an interesting dynamic. Trinity TX knew they would be flown somewhere and should have been confident they were going to be a 1 seed as well. What they didn’t know was where they would end up and I doubt they were thrilled to see that it was all the way up in Minnesota at the Gustavus regional. These Texas boys are going to be in for a different climate playing up north and Gustavus isn’t an easy environment to play in either.
The Favorites:Trinity TX
D3West: Contrary to what D3Central says, I think TU was probably pretty thrilled with their draw. After a couple weeks of gloom and doom talk when it came to bracketology for Trinity, the Tigers sure did come out smelling like roses. Instead of a road date with Case, they get a road date with the considerably less dangerous Gusties. Instead of a potential Elite Eight date with CMS, they could get a considerably more beatable Wash U squad. For all of you predicting a Gustavus upset, let me just stop you there because I’ve seen this story before. With both Donkena and Smith-Dennis leading the way for GAC last year, Gustavus over Trinity was a popular upset pick. My phone was vibrating so much in my bag that I got weird looks going through security with all the smack talk after GAC took a lead in doubles, but then what happened? The Tigers rolled through four singles matches in about an hour and half to end the thing. This Tigers team is even stronger than that team, and I would feel pretty good about TU winning even if they got swept, which isn’t going to happen.
For those of you hoping a little rain (not in the forecast) and a visit to the dreaded GAC bubble could trip up the Tigers, don’t forget that TU has already beaten a higher-ranked team… on the road… on very loud and very fast indoor courts. I see this playing out a lot like last year’s match. A fired-up GAC team take a 2-1 lead in doubles with wins at 1 and 3, everyone freaks out, and TU turns things around in singles with swift wins at the top 4 singles positions. Smith-Dennis and Leisner have really been struggling since opening the season with wins over Wash U, while Haugen and Moreno have been some of the best in the country at those positions. Skinner just isn’t going to lose at 4. Luis Chu has had a very impressive run this season, but inside or out, Deuel just knows how to get it done. GAC could hang at the bottom of the singles lineup, but with Curtis at #6 for TU, I don’t think the Gusties should be counting on their depth to win them this match. 5-2 for TU. Take it to the bank.
The Underdogs:Gustavus Adolphus
The big question here is which Gustavus team actually shows up. Is it the team that barely scraped by Tufts with a 5-4 victory or is it the Gustavus team that pushed Wash U to split singles (got dubs swept) losing 6-3 as well as the team that lost 5-4 to Middlebury in a match they probably should have won (lost a 2 break lead at 3 dubs). I think it’s the team that no one wants to see come tourney time. Let’s not forget that Gustavus also has a 6-3 loss to both Carnegie Mellon and Emory out in California. Those four close losses are all to teams in the top 10 and could threaten to be the national runner-up. (See what I did there? Side note: CMU, Middlebury and Emory can’t be because they are in the same half of the draw as CMS). The only thing I would say hurting Gustavus at this point is the lack of schedule strength over the last month. Even the Depauw and Kzoo wins are 4 weeks ago so that could hurt the Gusties. The lineup is a bit different than it was a month ago with Luis Chu now playing the top spot which bumps down Smith-Dennis and Leisner. If they get past Whitewater which they should, the match-up with Trinity is extremely interesting and I would go ahead and say right now that whomever wins the doubles battle is going to have a big upper hand to win the match. I am predicting a slim 5-4 victory for Trinity.
The Dark Horse: Wisconsin Whitewater
Where oh where have the mighty Warhawks gone? If this was last year’s team I would be worried for GAC, but fortunately for them, it is not. The Warhawks have just one national level win in Chicago (5-4) and had a horrendous spring break with losses to Colby (5-4) and Depauw (7-2). Whitewater still has taken care of the mid level regional teams without too much trouble which is great, but only for regional rankings. The good news is the emergence of Jake Humphreys as a legitimate top singles player. He has quite a resume built which is great as it backs up his ITA win in the fall. The bad news for Whitewater is their former #1 player Ben Shklyar has been AWOL all season. He is a whole 6-9 on the season against D3 competition with no big wins (only Earlham, Colby, and Kzoo? I’m stretching here). This is a kid that qualified for nationals last year as an individual so if Whitewater wants any chance at all, they better hope he finds his game this week. He has been bumped out of the top doubles spot as well with the emergence of Humphreys. Humphreys rise has been awesome, but Shklyar’s fall has been just as detrimental.
Interesting match-up: GAC vs. WW has some intrigue, but only because of past year’s rivalry. GAC had an easy win early in the season 7-2 and I don’t expect this one to go much different. The true match-up that matters is GAC vs. Trinity TX. D3West has already made his prediction above so I will add my thoughts as well. Doubles is where this match could be close and if GAC wants a chance, they probably need to sweep which they are capable of doing. However, Trinity has always been known for strong doubles play historically so it’s hard to predict a sweep against them and I would agree with West with a GAC lead 2-1 after dubs. In singles, the match-up is horrible for the Gusties. I almost think changing the lineup mid-season will hurt them in this match because they are weaker (comparatively) at all spots. If Luis Chu was playing 3 still, he would have a better shot. If Gustavus wants to win this match they would need to search for the elusive 5 points. They could get three from dubs and scrounge up two of the singles matches. Even with that, I would pick Trinity 5-4, but since I don’t think this match will get to that point, I am going with Trinity winning 5-3.