Through the Eyes of D3AS: NCAA Regionals UPDATED

We’ve decided to do NCAA predictions/thoughts for every writer here at D3, if you didn’t know.  It’ll be interesting to see the different takes as to predictions on each region.  I will NOT complain about the bracket in this post, enough of that has been done and I’ve found that complaining doesn’t really get you places.  Other than a penalty box or the locker room, maybe.  Off we go.

Region #1, CMS Region

Well this is clearly the most loaded region of the bunch, as we very much expected.  I think there are a few interesting caveats to this region that really shouldn’t be looked over.  I’m not going to go through matchup by matchup, because that is way too time consuming.  Either way, there are clearly three nice matchups here in this region, starting with CMS/Redlands.  Personally, I think this is going to be a blowout.  I haven’t seen Redlands pull off a massive upset such as this one in my DIII Tennis years, and I don’t think it’ll be on the CMS home courts against a motivated and maligned NCAA team.  To be honest, I think Redlands won’t even think they have a chance and basically hand it over to CMS, for an easy 8-1.  The match I really wanted to get to was CLU/Cruz.  Everyone seems to be counting out Cruz, as always.  The fact of the matter is that Cruz is an experienced, hard-working, playoff team that comes through more often than they don’t.  Unfortunately for them, this match is not at home, and they will be going up against seniors Nick Ballou and Worley.  When you have two seniors at the top of your lineup, one of them being a tennis-crazy slightly delirious young adult, you are going to get into a hole.  That’s exactly where this one will be.  Not to mention, CLU has become a much deeper team with all the additions and improvements in the bottom of the lineup.  I expect Cruz to fight really hard, but once they start seeing that they may go down in doubles, their intensity might suffer.  Personally, I don’t think that the Cruz 3 team that has been dominating all year will necessarily win.  In fact, judging by recent lineups, I don’t even know who will be playing.  CLU showed they can hang with the best in doubles against CMS, and they’ll take the 2-1 lead.  At that point, it’s safe to say they’ll win (1+2 singles are looking great) and another one.  Moving onto the final, this is the match I’m most looking forward to in the regionals.  These teams just played, as we know, and CLU was a tiebreaker away from taking a 2-1 lead without a Ballou/Worley win.  Do I think CLU will win this match?  No, I don’t.  But I think they have a better shot than people are probably giving them.  Ballou and Worley are seniors, and we’re dealing with a CMS team that has well-documented postseason struggles.  It is a different team, but one can’t just brush off historical data.  I’d put the CLU chances at a 25% shot.  They have to play an almost perfect match down at the bottom of the lineup, and I’d really love to see one of the 5 or 6 guys step up and beat Lane/Johnson even though it is a tough task.  It’s a shame both these clearly deserving teams can’t get out of the region together, but that’s the reality we’ve been dealing with for the pat however many years.  If you are a championship team, you get through this match.  My regional winner is CMS, but count me in to the group that would not be surprised if CLU pulls off this upset.

Region #2, Kenyon Region

As much as I love giving attention to the likes of Wilkes, Grove City, Elizabethtown and Franciscan, I’m not going to give previews to those matches ( I actually hate giving them attention.  This is all they’ll get.) Obviously the match of the region is going to be Case vs Kenyon.  Kenyon has the benefits of this being Case’s first NCAA experience, being at home, and just having those championship expectations that they brought into the season.  I don’t expect Kenyon to be nervous, tight, or looking over their shoulder because that’s not what the Lords do.  However, Case is a proud team that will always fight to the bitter end, and they are pretty much scared of no one.  They’ll bring the heat as they’ve already experienced a loss at Kenyon this year and I’m sure will remember that.  Moving to the match, it’ll be interesting to see what kind of lineup the Spartans throw out there.  D3Central

consistently brings up the fact that Case can’t bring more than 8 people to NCAAs, and I’m pretty sure he’s right.  If that is the case, they’ll bench Solove/Brunsting for the Drougas/Klawitter team, who is their #4.  That’s right, I was watching that Odds vs Evens scrimmage, Case.  It’ll also be interesting to see what kind of doubles lineup Kenyon throws out there.  I think they’re vulnerable to an upset, and we all know the blueprint of one.  If this were any old match, I’d say Case has a pretty quality shot at sweeping.  However, this is NCAAs, where Kenyon made the finals last year and will not get swept.  I can pretty much guarantee it.  They’ll take either 1 or 3 doubles, and maybe even both.  I think #2 is a lock for Case.   In singles, Kenyon is probably going to be way too strong for Case.  They have the talent and depth, and that’s a bad matchup for Case singles.  The Spartans lineup picks up on weaknesses, but has trouble dealing with a solid all-around singles team.  We saw that in their last meeting.  Overall, Kenyon will dominate the singles play and come through with a 5-2 win.

Region #3, Williams Region

To me, this is the first region where there is absolutely no doubt who is getting through.  Williams is a class above any of the teams in their region, and they lucked out that MIT beat that injured Bates team earlier in the season.  This very well could have been Bates had Crampton not been out that one day.  Much like the Kenyon region, the first round matches don’t really deserve much attention.  Skidmore is in this region, but they’re not really anything special with Loutsenko being gone.  Williams will be playing MIT in the round of 16, that’s almost for certain.  Williams strengths are just going to be way too much for the Engineers.  This is a very likely candidate for a doubles sweep, and I’d be surprised if MIT takes any of the doubles.  Their talent has been a bit overrated this year with that Bates win, but everyone seems to know that they are a 25-30 team in actuality.  Look for Williams to sweep the doubles and get two quick wins at the bottom of the lineup with Weiss/Chow for that easy 5-0 win.  One thing I

would like to see out of this match is how Dylan Page continues to play singles.  He could be an X-Factor in the tournament, as the younger Weiss had been struggling down at 6 a little bit and the Ephs could really use the experience and a competitive match at 6 to better their NCAA chances.  He may be shaking off some rust, but this will be a good look at where he stands right now.  I’m taking 5-0 Williams in a pretty easy region to predict.

Region #4, Emory Region

This is probably going to be my favorite region to preview, judging by the teams in it.  All 5 teams are nationally ranked, and the play begins today with NCW and Washington and Lee, which I took a lot of shit for predicting in NCWs favor last time around.  Let’s be frank here, this one isn’t going to be 7-2 W&L again like last time.  Personally, I think Kjellberg/Prostak will step up today, getting their team 3 wins.  For the rest of them, it’ll be real interesting to see where the wins come from.  Last time out these guys split at 5 and 6, and there was a close match at 3 I believe.  For some reason, and it may just be because W&L gets on me all the time, I’m going with NCW 5-4.  For those in the Atlanta region, I think it’d be pretty damn cool to go and see White and Kjellberg’s last NCAA tournaments.  Both have had great careers in DIII and will be going to nationals in a week or so.  On the other side of the bracket, we’ve got the enigmatic UT-Tyler versus the Whitman Squirrels.  I must say, I love this matchup because the two teams are a much different build than each other both personnel-wise and philosophy wise this season.   The story here has to be about Ybarra.  Will he play, and if so, can he play to the level he was at in the beginning of the year?  Let me start off by saying if he doesn’t play, Pomona/Carnegie should be very unhappy.  I’d also be pretty unhappy with UTT’s twitter feed (heh).  I think he will play anyways, and will be back into close to mid-season form.  However, that does not mean the Patriots will win.  In fact, I’m going to go with Whitman here!  If Ybarra is even a little off, that gives Malesovas a big opportunity to win at #1 singles, and for the Squirrels to win at #1 doubles as well.  They somehow lost #3 doubles last time out, even though the bottom of the Patriots lineup is pretty weak, and I expect that to be a closer match.  If you check the past boxscore, there were four three-setters in singles, and two of them were the duo of Ybarra and Brown.  Whitman is the more experienced team, and to me they are also one of the hungriest teams in the nation.  They don’t fly across the country for nothing.  With wins at #1 and #2 doubles, and #2, 4, and 5 singles… Whitman takes this one 5-3.  Moving onto the powerhouse in the region, the Eagles actually lucked out in my opinion.  They could’ve gotten CMU had they made it, which was a close match at UAAs.  Instead, they get three teams with obvious flaws that the Eagles can and will take advantage of.  In the cases of both NCW and UTT, those teams have a strong top 2 and are middling pretty much everywhere else.  Funny thing is the two “weak” spots in Emory’s lineup have been at 1 and 2 singles.  Everywhere else, they are as strong as anyone in the nation.  That bottom of the lineup, plus #1 and #3 doubles, should give them quick 5-1 or 5-2 wins against those two teams.  What will be interesting for the Eagles is how they’re doubles team of

Bajoria/Issacs plays in high-pressure situations.  They won in UAA in impressive fashion, and if they can continue being a solid #2 team, Emory will be a tough out for anyone later on.  Coach Browning knows how to coach a team in the tournament and will make sure to get every last drop of effort out of this young Eagles team.  Moving on to the Sweet 16, if Emory does play Whitman, they’ll just be too strong at almost every spot other than #1 doubles and #1-2 singles.  The blueprint of the Emory win is a total reversal of last year, and it’s almost a good thing that Pottish/Goodwin struggled last year as these guys now know how to win under pressure.  Combine that with a hard-working, hungry team and coach, and you get a championship contender.  Emory is not going to lose this region, and they probably won’t lose more than 3 matches total.  5-1 Emory over Whitman in the regional final.

Region #5, Amherst Region

It seems that the NESCAC powers seem to get some pretty good regions in terms of ranked opponents, probably because they are able to shuttle in tons of mid-range teams to these few schools and make a reasonable region.  This time, the #2 seed happens to be Mary Washington, who has really struggled all year putting a few matches together to get on a big winning streak.  One thing that they can’t do is look ahead to the Amherst match, as they’ll get a tough Stevens Tech team that has really flown under the radar this year.  In all honesty, I think Stevens has a solid chance at pulling this upset.  With Rizzolo out for the Eagles (which is a shame), I think Stevens has the advantage at #1 doubles and can really put the pressure on this UMW team if they take 2 doubles.  Going into singles, Stevens probably has the advantage at #1 and MAYBE #2 with the inconsistencies of the Mary Wash top of the lineup, but everything really stops there.  I can’t see UMW getting out classed at the bottom of the lineup so I have to go with them in a 6-3 or 5-4 score.  Mark my words, this is going to be a close one and either team will need to fight to get the chance to even play Amherst.  Unfortunately, once they do get to Amherst, there won’t be much of a match.  Amherst has shored up their doubles, and literally no one on either UMW or Stevens has the ability to scare the Amherst team.  It will be nice to see Stevens #1 doubles team go up against the Jeffs, who just beat the #1 team from Williams.  There has been a lot of debate about the Ducks #1 team and I think it is a valid argument.  This is a team that just got beaten pretty routinely by MIDD #1, and there are definitely more than 2 teams that can argue they are better in the Northeast.  I don’t expect either UMW or Stevens to win any matches in the Sweet 16. 5-0 Amherst.

Region #6, Trinity TX Region

Hosted at UW-Whitewater (wish it was Oshkosh), this is one of the deceptively intriguing regions of the tournament.  Personally, I don’t think that either Gustavus or UWW can take out Trinity given the blueprint of their team, but I definitely think the match to get into the Sweet 16 will be a nice treat for us.  Last time these two teams played, it was in the bubble over in Gustavus, and in the beginning of the year.  There is a huge difference between playing on the road and at home for Gustavus, as well as playing indoors or outdoors.  To me, Gustavus steps it way up indoors at the bubble, and that played a factor into their early season match against the Warhawks.  The key to this match will be doubles, and although I don’t think anyone can sweep Gustavus if they have an average day, there is definitely a lot of opportunity to go up 2-1 on them.  The match of the day here will be at #1, where we’ll get two nationals teams in Osborne/Shklyar vs. Smith-Dennis/Donkena.  Last time, this went to a breaker, and I’m sure it’s going to be close again.  I really want to go with UWW here, but the Gustavus boys have been playing for a long time, and have the pedigree.  Once GAC takes 2 of 3 doubles, that takes a lot of pressure off of their top 2 singles players.  We shall see if Gustavus Fan’s predictions are correct, as Donkena will get the chance to go up against Shklyar.  Personally, I don’t think he’ll win.  However, definite advantage at #2 and #3 for GAC.  Maybe McGlashen at #3 can fire himself up enough to beat his nemesis, Chu.  This means that UWW will have to take the bottom of the lineup, which is definitely possible.  However, I don’t think that the Warhawks have the strength at the bottom to take all 3.  I’ll take GAC 5-3 in this one to move on to play Trinity TX.  In the past however many years, GAC has played TTX and has not even come close to winning in my opinion.  Trinity TX does everything that they do, they just do it a whole lot better.  They’ll be able to take that coveted 2-1 lead versus GAC and then will be able to handle anything GAC throws at them up and down the singles lineup.  It’s very funny because they are really mirror images of each other, it’s just that GAC looks in the mirror and sees a Herculean version of themselves.  I’m excited to see Trinity back in some real action since before their conference championships (which is a joke), and it’ll be a great idea of how they will perform in the Elite 8 once they make it.  Trinity will win this one, 5-2 in a pretty routine match.

Region #7, Wash U Region

Well, the most infamous region in the history of DIII Tennis.  This obviously is one of the worst regions we’ve seen in a long time, and who knows what was going on in the committee’s minds when this thing was built.  Wash U essentially has a free path to the Elite 8.  Hell, even the Kohawks think so and they are the Bears biggest challenge.  I really don’t know what to say about this region, considering there is only one ranked team in it, and the #2 seed is Coe College.  Yeah, they have a solid player in Noah Sprinkel, but he’ll  have to go up against Putterman who is my bet to get runner up depending on the draws of the individual championships.  Wash U should cruise through this region losing 0 matches, and they’ll get another week of practice with a Top 3 experienced and skilled coach in Follmer.  What a gift, as Wash U wins this one 5-0.

Region #8, Middlebury Region

This is definitely the most evenly matched region by far, which will eventually pit Middlebury at home versus the same Hopkins team that knocked them out of the tournament last year.  You have to think Coach Hansen remembers that and will bring out the big guns for  this match.  What really matters here is what kind of doubles lineup Middlebury puts out there.  We’ve seen from Hopkins that they have to put Brown/Lim at #1, and they’ve been mixing it up recently due to Hersh either getting pulled from the doubles lineup or something else.  Middlebury is considered to be “on a roll” since their 5-4 loss to Williams, but a loss is a loss.  Midd’s one saving grace is that I believe Reiter to be out for the rest of the year, and that basically makes the Hopkins 5 and 6 of Garcia and Weissler pretty vulnerable to breakdowns, as they are not NCAA tournament veterans.  Nerves are a big part of the tournament and we shall see how these guys handle it.  Another really weird thing to note is Hopkins in general.  They were considered a title contender at the end of last year, and now they are really being overlooked.  I personally don’t think you should overlook a team that has so much singles depth and talent, especially with the way Brown has been playing and the fact that this is Andy Hersh’s senior year.  We all know Hersh is not going to go down unless someone runs on the court and breaks his leg, so players are going to get frustrated playing him and he’ll just get balls back all day.  Either way, depending on what doubles lineup Hansen puts out there, I still think that they’ll end up taking 2 of 3.  Hopkins has not enjoyed much doubles success as of late and are tinkering with their lineups.  I actually think that the Jays are vulnerable to a sweep, it’s just that there is too much variability.  Moving to singles, I think Hop can count on two spots to win – #3 and #4 singles in Hwang and Lim.  Both guys have already come up huge for the  Jays in both last year and this year, and they sure as hell won’t forget those moments.  They’re hard workers, gamers, and in the case of Lim, really know how to get under your skin.  With those two matches in hand, they obviously have to win #1 and either #5/6.  Given past results, I see no reason to think that Hop will sweep.  It’s going to come down to either #1 or #2 singles, and Middlebury better.  Hopkins is going to be tough up and down the lineup, something that Middlebury is pretty adept at also.  No matter what, I still think that Hopkins will be stronger at most of the singles spots, and they know that.   They’ve got the cards right if they get at least 1 doubles victory and focus on singles.  As you can see from my master predictions, I do believe Hop will come back and win this.  They may win at every top 4 singles spot, and they definitely have a chance down at 5 and 6.  Either way, I’ve got Hopkins in a semi upset of moving into the tournament, 5-3.

That’s all I’ve got! Please see the predictions post for everyone’s predictions.

Elite 8 Next Week