Good Evening, ladies and germs! The bracket is out, and it seems, given the circumstances, everyone is relatively happy with the result! Each #1 seed has been paired with a top 22 #2 seed, which is pretty remarkable considering the fact that 8 top 25 teams didn’t even make the tournament (including 4 in what will be the top 15 after Williams’ win is taken into account). I’m here to dish on what I think of my regions’ team’s chances, but first, I must complain for a short while:
I know that we all accept “The California Region” as a truthism in the DIII tennis world, but that doesn’t mean we should just complacently ignore the blatant injustice. Pomona-Pitzer directly beat four of the regional #1 seeds in this bracket, yet they will have to get through a team that hasn’t lost a regular season or regional match in three years to make it to the Elite Eight. CMS is the undisputed #1 team by ranking, yet they are the only #1 seed to play a top 8 opponent before the Elite Eight (and that opponent happens to be the only team to have lead against them all season). The injustice is less acute this year than previous because Cruz and Tyler are barely ranked in the top 30, but they will not be afforded the same opportunities similarly-ranked teams like Stevens, NCW, UW-W, Sewanee, and Washington & Lee will get. We all know that it’s unfair, but I think it’s important to voice that fact.
Enough rabble-rousing, let’s start with my regional teams that avoided the calamity before we get into the region that is undoubtedly mine to cover.
Trinity
Mary Washington may be ranked 14th in the country right now (how?), but I’m sure Trinity is pleased with their draw. The Eagles are no slouches, and they’ve been lurking on the precipice of a big victory all season, and they are very much built like the Tigers. They have experience up top with Carey, Gilmore, and Lunding-Johansson, with a younger bottom of the lineup anchored by one senior (Charles). This season, as in past seasons, they have come very close to picking up big victories against Redlands, P-P, Hopkins, and CMU, but they have fallen short. Some would say that it’s only a matter of time before these seniors put things together (on their home courts, no less!) and come up with a big win!
That being said, I’m guessing the Tigers would much rather play them than the likes of Chicago, Bowdoin, or even Gustavus. Every year, somebody forgets how good Trinity is at the end of the season and picks a team like Gustavus (last couple years) or Chicago (2011 or 2012) to beat them in the Sweet Sixteen, and every year Trinity comes up with another 5-3 or 5-2 win. This year will be more of the same. Since I’m not sure if anyone else will be covering this region, I’m going to go ahead and give the full breakdown of the likely Sweet Sixteen match:
Doubles
1. Niess/Jordan Mayer (TU) vs. Charles/Carey (UMW) – This is an intriguing lineup change at the top for Trinity, and now they’ll have a match where Niess is the only non-senior on the court. The TU sophomore played well beyond his years at last year’s nationals, but Charles’ hands are softer than a newborn labradoodle, and I always err on the side of seniors. UMW 8-6
2. Skinner/Krull (TU) vs. Griffin/Gilmore (UMW) – What do you get when you mix an arm sleeve with short shorts? A nasty #2 doubles team. The Big G’s haven’t been fantastic closing out this season, and I have to go with TU here. 8-4
3. Curtis/Chas Mayer (TU) vs. DLJ/Curtis (UMW) – Curtis and DLJ are a relatively new combo for the Eagles, as they’ve been searching for the right mix at #3 all season. Curtis and Mayer, on the other hand, have been consistently rock solid all season for the Tigers. They certainly aren’t an unbeatable combo, but I’ll go with the experience here. It wouldn’t be a TU match if they didn’t take a doubles lead. TU 9-7
Singles
UTR says these teams are basically dead even in singles, which I believe. I’ll list TU players first followed by their UTR’s
1. Adam Krull (12.74) vs. Tyler Carey (12.70) – Everyone knows that Carey is capable of winning this match, as he’s had some big wins in his career, but I’m leaning towards Krull because he’s been very consistent all year. If the UMW senior can win this one, it could really swing the match. TU 6-3, 4-6, 6-2.
2. Aaron Skinner (11.60) vs. Stratton Gilmore (11.46) – In a match between two seniors on relatively slow courts, I gotta go with the Arm Sleeve with no serve. TU 7-5, 6-4
3. Jordan Mayer (11.56) vs. DLJ (11.59) – These two are about as close as they can get when it comes to UTR, and that’s pretty much how I think of them in my mind. It should be an absolute battle, and I’m going to cop out and say that this one doesn’t finish. If I had to pick, I’d go with the senior in Mayer. TU leads 4-6, 6-3, 3-2 Unf.
4. Clayton Niess (10.89) vs. Brandon Griffin (11.05) – Nemo, I know I’ve been picking against you all season, but it’s only because you’re 2-8 against ranked teams on the singles court. Griffin’s season has been full of epic 3-setters, and I think he’ll get this one done with less drama. UMW 6-3, 6-4.
5. Charlie Curtis (11.16) vs. Evan Charles (11.29) – No joke, these are two of my favorite players to watch in DIII. Both play some pretty atypical shots, and they’re both seniors. How could I possibly chose between them!? Good thing I don’t have to: UMW leads 7-6, 6-6 (3-4) Unf.
6. Chas Mayer (11.28) vs. Eric Hurwitz (10.88) – Do I believe in freshman Eric Hurwitz? Not particularly. I think Mayer takes this one fairly routinely. #AllForehandAllDay TU 6-3, 6-2.
When it’s all said and done, I think this will be a closer Sweet Sixteen match than many may anticipate, but Trinity has always gotten it done, and I think they’ll come away with the key points to beat Mary Washington on the road.
Whitman
The NCAA committee basically said, “Hey, people weren’t totally upset with last year’s draw, so let’s do it again!” I’m not going to get into the specifics because I think D3Central is covering this regional, but I think this is about as good a draw as Whitman could have hoped for. They got the NCAA monkey off their back by beating Sewanee to make it to the Sweet Sixteen last year, and they’ll have the opportunity to do it again before playing a potentially more beatable Wash U team. Make no mistake, the Squirrels will be huge underdogs against the Bears, and I think they will lose, but they have a better chance of making it to the Elite Eight than a team like Pomona-Pitzer in my book. They absolutely cannot look past Sewanee, but I’m going to because I’m a blogger and I’m aloud to do whatever I want. To beat Wash U, they absolutely have to take a doubles lead, which means they pretty much have to win #1 and #2 doubles matches because their #3 doubles has been a disaster all year, while Cogan/Kratky are one of the best #3 teams in the country (8-2 Wash U). #1 doubles is a tossup, but I think Putterman’s big serve will ultimately shift things in their favor over the Whitman seniors (8-6 Wash U), but I think the duo of Hoeger/Hewlin will prevent the sweep with a tight win at #2 (9-7 Whitman). In singles, Malesovas finds himself in the unusual position of potentially being favored, and Whitman basically needs him to win at #1 because it’s tough sledding for them at the bottom of the lineup. The only other spots I could see Whitman winning are at #5 (with Friedman) and #6 (if Rivers can give them some senior magic against the freshman Haugen). Realistically, I see this finishing as a 5-1 Wash U win with quick wins at #3, #4, and #6 for the Bears.
Region of Death
1. CMS vs. 4. UC Santa Cruz – Slugs, I’m very sorry, but I’m really busy and I just can’t spend the time to give this a full preview. You guys had a terrible Ojai, and I know LJ is a little bit beat up. CMS is just too strong, and you guys just don’t have much of a chance. Best case scenario: LJ/Richter play inspired doubles and upset a mopey/distracted Wood and Dorn, while the Cruz #3’s catch Marino napping early and hold onto a break for a 2-1 Cruz lead. The Stags get pissed off and rattle off four straight singles wins, but not before Munugala improbably jumps all over Mork to make the final score 5-3 for CMS. In reality, I think the Stags sweep doubles relatively routinely before getting easy wins at #3 and #6 in a 5-0 win.
2. Pomona-Pitzer vs. 3. UT-Tyler – Again, I’m not going to give this match the full preview that it deserves. Tyler has already shown us what they can do to beat a top 10 team when they went 5-4 with Wash U: they have to win at least two doubles matches, get a good match out of Budd and pray for a good performance from the heart of their singles lineup. If they can get that doubles lead, they could push the Sagehens, but they will be going up against what is arguably the best doubles team in the country. With or without Yasgoor, the Hen #2’s and #3’s basically don’t lose, and when they get a good performance out of their #1 team, they’re lights out.
Anyways, here’s what I think is going to happen:
#1 Doubles- Wootton/Fischer will keep their dream season going with an 8-6 win
#2 Doubles – P-P will cruise at #2 (by an 8-3 count)
#3 Doubles – Will be a battle, but Simonides/Bello will get a late break and hold on for a 9-7 P-P win.
#1 Singles – Budd will win a tiebreaker set over Hudson, but Hudson will be up a break in the 2nd when the match is finished
#2 Singles – Wootton will get to the net and beat Kim 6-4, 6-3
#3 Singles – Maassen and Kelleher will play a very close match, but Maassen will be up 7-5, 2-2 when the match is completed.
#4 Singles – Bello and Fischer will have a lot of short games, but Bello will get a late break in each set for a 7-5 7-5 win to clinch the match.
#5 Singles – Malech will continue to roll and beat Elwood 6-2, 6-3
#6 Singles – Simonides will come back in and take down Puckey 6-4, 6-3
1. CMS vs. 2. Pomona-Pitzer – I’m going to cop out here and say that I predict that what happened on Sunday is basically exactly what will happen this weekend. This match deserves a full write up, but at this point, you guys know exactly who plays for these teams and where they play. They’ve played three times this season, after all. The only thing that could change things is if Yasgoor can play. I assumed he would play in the conference championships last weekend, but if he didn’t play there, he’s not going to be ready to go this weekend. If he plays, he could really turn things with a miracle win at #2. We’ll have to wait and see.
I don’t know if I ever remember two teams playing four times in the same season, but this is probably what we’re going to get. It’s unbelievable that the Hens could finish with six DIII losses and have four be to CMS and the other three to Redlands and Bates. It’s a crazy world we live in.
Individuals
One final note: I fully expect individual selections to be identical to the most recent ITA rankings. Marino could potentially snag the last singles spot over Budd or Whitman could snag the last doubles spot over P-P, but I really feel that the ITA committee got things right (even though I feel bad for Marino – all-time CMS singles wins record holder).