This Week In West: The SCIACs

Fresh off my Ojai Bracket Challenge victory, I’ll be writing this article with renewed swagger! As always, I am short on time, so I will be forgoing the team-by-team recap until after the SCIACs. With the final pre-selection regional singles and doubles rankings coming out later this week, however, I will chip in with my two cents there before previewing the action from what I can no longer argue is anything better than the third best conference tournament in the country 🙁

At least our conference’s seeding criteria make sense unlike the NESCAC’s. Let’s jump in with the singles:

Singles

Not much has changed since the last time I wrote about individuals selections, but here’s a quick refresher. 8 singles players go to nationals, and my region’s #1 players have been remarkably consistent this season

The Locks (100% in)

1. Warren Wood (CMS) – Wood bounced back from his Hudson loss by winning Ojai without dropping a set. With Krull out of the lineup against Tyler, I don’t think he will take the top spot from Wood, but you won’t hear much argument from me regardless.

2. Adam Krull (Trinity) – Krull’s singles record speaks for itself. He has one regional loss to Cardenas and a ton of victories. He’ll be going to nationals, and he’ll probably be seeded.

3. Skyler Butts (CMS) – Butts has just two losses in DIII this year: one in a 10-pointer at the beginning of the season and the one he just picked up against Wood in the Ojai finals. He has notable regional wins over Cardenas and now Lipscomb. He’s very deserving of a nationals seed if he gets one.

4. Moises Cardenas (CLU) – Cardenas may have lost to Lipscomb and Dancu in 10-pointers but he proved his mettle this weekend by beating Marino in three. His win over Krull might carry him into the top half of the regional seedings, but whether he finishes 4th, 5th, or 6th is irrelevant. He’s in

5. Colton Malesovas (Whitman) – Malesovas did just fine coming back from a brief stint on the DL and won both his conference matches. His win over Lipscomb and his overall consistency this year make him a lock to make the tournament. Again, whether he finishes 4th, 5th, or 6th is irrelevant.

6. Patrick Lipscomb (Redlands) – Lipscomb missed a big opportunity to move into the region’s top 3 when he lost to Butts in 3-sets, but his record speaks for itself. He’s a lock to get into the tournament. Depending on how he does this weekend (with potential matches against Dancu, Hudson, and Cardenas/Wood), he could move himself higher in the regional rankings.

Almost Certainly In (95% in)

7. Connor Hudson (P-P) – Hudson is #7 here because he has more losses than anyone else on this list, but there’s pretty much no denying that he belongs in the field. His win over Wood is his cushion right now, but he also has wins over the #1’s from Whittier, Cruz, Chicago, Williams, Skidmore, Trinity, Amherst, Bowdoin, Mary Washington, and Bates. The only way things could go wrong is if he somehow loses to Farmer, then Lipscomb, the Cardenas/Thompson (requiring a P-P loss to Redlands). Farmer has been threatening, but I don’t see that sequence of events happening. He’s pretty much a lock

But wait, you exclaim! How could seven players possibly have locked themselves into bids with so many deserving competitors nipping at their heels? It’s difficult to believe, but I’ve never seen a year when the #1 players from all the teams were collectively so good. You can make good cases for these next few players, but I just can’t make a case for any of them over the seven players that I’ve already listed. I welcome you to do so in the comments below.

Fighting For the Last Spot

8. Jake Yasgoor (P-P) – Yasgoor has had another excellent season at #2 singles with wins at #1 against Tufts and CNU to go with wins at #2 against GAC, Chicago, Williams, Midd, Case, Trinity (TX), CMU, CLU, and Bates. The only problem Yaz has is that his signature regional win came against Dancu in his first match of the year. He has fallen short against Butts twice, and has a loss to Yaraghi on his record. Of the remaining players, he probably has the most upward mobility in that he could have a chance to beat Butts in the finals of the SCIAC. A win over Cummins in the semis wouldn’t hurt either. Right now, he’s probably the odds-on favorite to take the last qualifying spot.

9. Nik Marino (CMS) – Marino has had another great season, but it’s not easy to get into nationals as a #3 singles player. When he accomplished the feat last season, he did it by going undefeated in DIII competition in dual matches before losing to Wood in the finals of the Ojai while beating Littlejohn, Cardenas, and Konstantinov along the way. This season hasn’t quite lived up to that season’s stellar standard. He has one DIII loss to Campbell from Midd, and he only made to the quarters of the Ojai. Ultimately, the three-set loss to Cardenas is probably what’s going to cost him. Without a signature win like that, the only way I can see him getting in is if CMS did something crazy like pull Butts in a SCIAC finals matchup against P-P to give him a match against Yasgoor. CMS doesn’t typically pull those sorts of shenanigans.

10. Josh Dancu (Oxy) – I’m usually a huge proponent of the little guy, but I pretty much jumped off the Dancu bandwagon when he skipped the CMS match. By skipping the CMS match, he denied both himself and Marino a chance to pick up another big regional win. Right now, he’s got one big regional win over Cardenas in a 10-pointer to go with a slew of other wins and one big regional loss to Yasgoor. Oxy is the #7 seed in the SCIAC, which means he’s got a date with Lipscomb from #2-seeded Redlands. Even if Dancu does earn himself a lead, there’s next to no chance that he finishes the match in the SCIAC quarters, which are played to decision. If he wins the match, it’s going to be hard to keep him out of the top 8. If he doesn’t beat Lipscomb, he’ll have to beat Farmer in the backdraw, have Oxy somehow beat Whittier, and hope Chapman somehow beats Cal Lu so he can pick up another big win over Cardenas in the 5th place match. This is obviously a ridiculously convoluted and farfetched scenario, and I’m not sure why I even wrote it down. Now you know that it exists.

11. Daniel Budd (Tyler) – Last week’s player of the week really put himself behind the 8-ball regionally by going 0-3 against Lipscomb, Malesovas, and Littlejohn at the beginning of the year. Since then, he’s acquitted himself quite nicely with wins over Sprinkel, Carswell, Humphreys, and, most recently and most helpfully, Skinner. He was unfortunately denied a chance to play Krull due to injury, but the win over Skinner is big nonetheless. This guy has a good resume, and I know a lot of people will argue against him, but I think he has a shot. When all other things are equal, it definitely helps to have your coach on the selection committee for the good old Bizot Bump (patent pending). Additionally, the NCAA committee has traditionally weighted regional win percentage more heavily than the ITA committee, making all of Budd’s ASC wins immensely valuable for him. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him sneak in the 8 spot.

All other challengers, better luck next year.

Doubles

The Locks

1. Wood/Dorn (CMS) – Wood and Dorn have been phenomenal all season. They could lose to Cal Lu/Chapman and Redlands/P-P and still make the tournament. I’m sure they were really hoping to finish their careers with a win at the Ojai under their belts, but they will have a chance to make up for that at individual nationals.

2. Fischer/Wootton (Tyler) – It’s (pretty much) official! Old Man River is headed to nationals. The 98-yearold and his parter Fischer finished an incredible season with just one DIII loss to Chicago to go against wins over Whitman, Redlands, Cruz, Coe, Wash U, Whitewater, and (most importantly) Trinity. They didn’t slip up in their conference (which is harder to do than it sounds), and I can think of nothing that will keep them out of nationals.

Near-Locks (70%)

3. Chudalavada (P-P) – I really hate to do this to you again, Chuddy, but this one isn’t quite nailed in. This senior-freshman combo made it all the way to the finals of Fall ITAs, importantly picking up a win over Butts/Mork along the way, and has wins over Cal Lu, Trinity, Bowdoin, Skidmore, Midd, Cruz, Case, and Redlands. The only problem for these two is their cavalcade of out-of-region losses (that still matter) to Bates, Mary Wash, CMU, CMS (x2), Amherst, Trinity (both), Williams, Chicago, and GAC. This is the sort of uneven performance we’re more accustomed to seeing out of #1 doubles teams because consistently winning prosets is difficult. Nevertheless, the Hens probably have to beat Whittier and Redlands to assure themselves of a spot.

Control Their Fate (50%)

4. Lipscomb/Cummins (Redlands) – The senior Dawgs have had a phenomenal season with a bunch of great wins, but they’ve left the door ajar in recent weeks by losing to CMS, P-P, and then Kim/Maassen at the Ojai. I will always pick a #1 team over a #2 team because of the day-to-day scrutiny they face, but now we have precedent for a committee picking a #2 team in almost this exact situation, and I don’t know what they’re going to do this time. If these two can beat Oxy and P-P (and CLU/Chap in a potential 3rd place match), they’ll make it for sure. If not, there will be some chance involved.

Please God, No. This Can’t Be Happening Again (50%)

5. Butts/Mork (CMS) – We’re in essentially the exact same situation that we were in last year with Butts/Kotrappa in that we have a #2 doubles team from a dominant Stags lineup coming off an Ojai victory at the end of the year. I was adamantly opposed to Butts/ Trap taking the qualifying spot last year, and they subsequently validated my thoughts by losing to Cruz’ and Midd’s #2 teams during team nationals and bowing out in the 1st round of nationals. I point this out again because the committee seems to forget the massive difference between playing #1 and #2 doubles. Pretty much every top team can put together a very dangerous #1 doubles team, which makes winning consistently at the top spot difficult (which makes what Wood/Dorn have done all the more impressive). Lots of teams can field a dangerous #2 team, but outside the top 15 or 20, the #2 doubles teams thin out and it’s easier to win consistently. Nevertheless, I could live with Butts/Trap making it last year because they were, after all, undefeated in DIII play. Butts and Mork have lost twice this season, once to P-P’s #2s (who they beat at the Ojai) and once to Wesleyan’s #2s. Any team can get hot for one weekend and win the Ojai (see Hammond/Wong 2011), but that doesn’t mean they deserve to go to nationals. The same is true for these two, as good a doubles team as they are. If they were playing #1 all season, they would have a ton of losses, and they do not deserve to go to nationals over Lipscomb and Cummins. As was the case last year, I’m sure the committee isn’t listening, and I have a feeling they’re gonna put these two in the tournament.

Living on a Prayer (15% each)

6/7 Skinner/Mayer (Trinity) and Rivers/Malesovas (Whitman) – We should not forget the Fall national champs, but their losses to Whitman, CLU, and Tyler are probably going to do them in this year. Sad to see the Trinity #1’s fail to make nationals after such a great year for their. In the same way that Budd has a chance, the Whitman seniors may find themselves in the #5 spot because of all of their regional wins. They avenged their conference loss this past weekend, and they have a bunch of strong wins on their resume, but they will probably be doomed by the fact that they weren’t playing together for SBWW. So it goes.

The SCIACS

Quarterfinals

1. CMS vs. 8. Caltech – This will not be a close match. The Stags will mix up their lineup and win 5-0 relatively quickly. Caltech is still an improving team that I’ll be keeping my eye on.

2. Redlands vs. 7. Occidental – SCIAC seeding is based on conference results, making Redlands the #2 seed based on their 6-1 conference record. The only thing to look at in this match is the Lipscomb/Dancu match at #1 singles. Dancu will need to win fast in order to make nationals. I don’t see it happening. 5-0 Redlands.

3. Pomona-Pitzer vs. 6. Whitter – The Poets have had a very forgettable year, and I don’t think they’re going to pull off the miracle in this match. The Whittier #1 doubles teams have a chance to play a big-time spoiler, but it’s unlikely. Keep an eye on whether or not Yaz is good to go in this one. 5-0 P-P.

4. Cal Lutheran vs. 5. Chapman – I was very tempted to take the Panthers in the upset here before this past weekend when Valdez and Scott played some great tennis at the Ojai. This will obviously be the closest of the quarterfinals, and Chapman could make things interesting if they can take 2/3 doubles again. Ultimately, I think the Cal Lu top 3 will be too strong and the Kingsmen will come away with a 5-2 win (Chapman points coming at #2 dubs and #4 singles).

Semifinals

1. CMS vs. 4. Cal Lu – Again, this won’t be much of a team match, but there are some interesting individual components to it. The Cal Lu #2 doubles team will be looking to play spoiler for CMS’ #2s and Cardenas/Wood will have themselves a rematch of the Ojai semifinal. I expect CMS to come out on top in both matchups, but some good tennis will assuredly be played. 9-0 CMS.

2. Redlands vs. 3. Pomona-Pitzer – Awwwww yeah, this is what I’m talking about. I’m gonna bust out the UTR match-predictor on this thing, but first for a little editorialization. This is the only match this weekend that is meaningful at all for Pool C. Pomona-Pitzer is locked in and Redlands needs this one to make a case for themselves. With losses to Bowdoin, Midd, and (most damagingly) Williams on their resume, they need to prove they can beat Pomona-Pitzer at full strength to show that they deserve to go to nationals.

Regarding the actual match, Redlands has been a top 10 doubles team this year. Their #3s beat CMS’ and they have taken doubles leads against the likes of Midd, Bowdoin, and Whitman. Unfortunately, they’ll be going up against probably the 2nd strongest doubles team in the country this weekend, and they’ll probably need a doubles lead this time if they’re going to win (obviously they can do it without the lead since they’ve done it before, but I think they’ll be going against a P-P singles lineup that is both more energized and Yaz-ful this time). Both teams are incredibly deep, but P-P has been just a bit deeper over all this season, including taking 2 of the bottom 3 singles spots when the Dawgs upset the Hens last time around, so Redlands will be looking once again to their senior leaders at the top of the lineup to put them over the top.

#1 Doubles: Chudalavada (P-P) vs. Lipscomb/Cummins (Redlands) – The Hens won this one by a break when these two teams met last, but this match will be pretty much entirely dependent on which P-P #1 team shows up. They’ve been up and down this whole season, and I’m gonna go out on a limb and guess that they’re down for this one. The Redlands duo takes it 9-7 to secure a nationals berth.

#2 Doubles: Kim/(Yasgoor/Maassen) (P-P) vs. Burchett/Leahy (Redlands) – Bickham has himself another decision to make at #2 doubles. Kim/Yasgoor was a great team for most of the season, but Kim/Maassen has been playing phenomenally in Yaz’ abscense including wins over CMS’ #2’s, and both of Redlands’ top teams. No matter what P-P team gets put out there, I think they’ll win by a break: 8-5 Pomona-Pitzer

#3 Doubles: Bello/Simonides (P-P) vs. Dulle/Ly (Redlands) – And here we have the swing match. Bello and Simonides have been the better team overall this season, but Dulle and Ly won when these teams met last time. The twin towers were a little off on their first serves that day, and I think they’ll come to play today, getting an early break and holding on for an 8-6 P-P win.

#1 Singles: Hudson (P-P, UTR 12.45) vs. Patrick Lipscomb (Redlands, UTR 12.68) – Lipscomb beat Hudson in a 3rd set breaker to clinch the team upset the last time these two teams played, and he had a nice run at the Ojai. Hudson was home working on his thesis. This should be a great match, but I’m going to take Lipscomb to win in 3-sets again: 2-6, 6-4, 6-3 Redlands

#2 Singles: Yasgoor (P-P, UTR 12.78) vs. Nick Cummins (Redlands, UTR 12.49) – Cummins was coming on strong until he fell to Macey in the Ojai. Yasgoor will be coming off an injury, but he hasn’t lost much this season, and he’ll be able to get some good match play in against Whittier in the quarters. This should be a great #2 match, and I think having Yasgoor back in the lineup will shift this match between SCIAC rivals towards the Hens: 7-6, 4-6, 6-2 Pomona-Pitzer

#3 Singles: Jon Kim (P-P, UTR 11.49) vs. Parker Wilson (Redlands, UTR 11.58) – Both of these guys have had OK years singles-wise with a few good wins and a bunch of close losses. Wilson’s sophomore campaign has probably been the more disappointing for him, as he lost close 3-setters against Whitman, Midd, Williams, and Wesleyan. He seemed to be turning it around with a nice win over Bello, but he got smoked by Hull at the Ojai. Kim has been more consistent, and for that reason, I’m gonna go against UTR and pick him in a 3-6, 7-6, 6-3 win for Pomona-Pitzer.

From here on out, lineups are pure conjecture

#4 Singles: Anthony Bello (P-P, UTR 11.90) vs. Taylor Hunt (Redlands, 11.49) – Man, another tough match. Bello has been all over the place this season with flashes of brilliance followed by flashes of something else. Hunt is far from the consistent performer he was his sophomore year, but he has been good. This should be another close match, but I’ll take Bello to win 6-2, 7-6.

#5 Singles: Graham Maassen (P-P, UTR 11.35) vs. Joey Dulle (10.74) – Here we have to two hot-hands for their respective teams, and I have to say that having Yasgoor in the lineup gives P-P a much more favorable matchup. Dulle is a big server, but not a fantastic mover, and Maassen will punish him for that in this match. Maassen 7-5, 4-6, 6-1

#6 Singles: Josh Kim (P-P, UTR 10.78) vs. Gram Leahy (Redlands, UTR 10.69) – Who knows what this matchup will actually be. P-P has about six guys who could play here, and we haven’t seen Suchodolski for a while for Redlands. By default, I’m just going to go with the senior Leahy to win 6-3, 6-4.

There you have it, folks. I’m picking Pomona-Pitzer to win by a score of 6-3 (Why not 5-4? I don’t know) by going 3-for-4 in 3-setters. Obviously, this match could go either way, and I’m very excited to see how it all pans out! I’ll preview the finals match when I know who will be playing in it! Until next time!