This Week in West: March 23 – Whenever

Friends, fans, and well-wishers, I want to apologize for providing what I would consider to be a sub-par blogging experience to my West region teams. As much as I love DIII tennis, sometimes life gets in the way. Alas, it is time for my fortnightly State Of The Region article. I will do a brief overview of each team, talk about singles and doubles rankings, and then preview the intraregional matches on the docket for the next fortnight. I will finish with predictions for the other big matches featuring West region teams, and then hopefully provide a “This Week in West Region History” section for you all. Now that I’ve opened this article like the beginning of a high school public speaking presentation, let’s get to it.

If you see a match that I missed or want me to cover something else, just message me on Twitter @d3_west

Where They Stand – According to my brain

#1 CMS

Wins: Brandeis, Bates, Cal Lu, Wesleyan, Wash U, Pomona-Pitzer, Swarthmore, Johns Hopkins

Losses: N/A

The Stags started off their season as everyone expected they would – by dominating the Stag-Hen and generally looking as though nobody in DIII could ever beat them in a dual match. I expect them to stay at the #1 spot at least until the end of the year, and hopefully they’ll be able to take the trophy this year, if only for my sanity. Their lineup is as nasty as we expected it to be. Coach Settles has to be thrilled by the way Butts and Morkovine came together to create a dominant #2 doubles team, as doubles might have been a minor concern going into the year. If they have a weak spot in singles, however, it has to be the man Mork himself. The sophomore can be a little inconsistent, even within a given match, but I have to say that if he’s your weakest link, you’re looking pretty good. Macey can grind fellow #6 singles players into the dust, and the Dorn/Marino two-headed monster at the heart of the lineup has got to be intimidating. If anything else is a question, it is whether or not Wood can win consistently at #1. He has been a great #1 for three years now, but he tends to sprinkle in some head-scratching losses amidst his dominant wins. Over Spring Break, they got a very nice DI win over Georgetown (a weaker DI team, but a DI team nonetheless), and played #61 Penn pretty tight, though they lost 6-1.

#2 Pomona-Pitzer

Wins: Chapman, Cal Lu, Mary Washington, Carnegie Mellon, Bowdoin, Case Western, Trinity (TX), Amherst, Skidmore, Tufts, Trinity (CT)

Losses: CMS, Bates (?)

It was an undoubtedly stellar couple of weeks for the Sage Hens, as they bounced back from their mystifying loss to Bates with gusto. They have direct Pool C wins over CMU, Bowdoin, Case, Amherst, and Tufts, which will frankly make it really tough to keep them out of the tournament at the end of the year, even if things go south from here on out. Doubles has been the key to the Hens success. They took leads in all of their wins except their recent struggles against Trinity (CT), Skidmore, and Tufts, and their doubles lineup looks absolutely fierce. You can’t overstate the importance of Connor Hudson to Pomona-Pitzer either. The top of the singles lineup was a question for the Hens heading into the season, but he seems to win whenever his team needs him. His wins at #1 singles have come in their matches against Mary Wash, Bowdoin, Amherst, Skidmore, and (don’t forget) Bates. By being a passable top dog, Bickham can put Yasgoor at #2 where he rarely loses. The main question for Hens for the rest of this season is what’s going to happen with the bottom of the lineup. They’ve gotten wins sporadically from a bunch of players, but nobody has really stood out so far as a consistent option. The freshman Malech has had a strong recent stretch, and I know the Hens are glad that Maassen seems to be upping his game. Regardless, Pomona-Pitzer needs to address this issue because doubles can be a fickle beast, and we’ve seen how vulnerable they can be without a doubles lead. They have another HUGE week coming up with matches against Middlebury, Williams, and Chicago. The rest of Pool C should be pulling hard for the Hens because, at this point, a win over P-P will go a LONG way for any of these teams.

#3 Trinity (TX)

Wins: GAC, Hopkins, Emory, Kenyon, Cal Lu, Whitman

Losses: CMU, P-P, Wash U

Well, it certainly wasn’t a great Spring Break for the Indoor champs, but it wasn’t exactly a failure. They got a very nice 8-1 win over Kenyon before they were decimated by injuries, and picked up a few regional wins. Trinity, like P-P, seems to be overly dependent on their top two. When Skinner and Krull lose (as exemplified by their loss to CMU), the rest of their lineup may not be able to pick up the slack. Niess at #4 is very clearly their weak spot, but when he wins, the team is going to be really tough to beat. Looking forward, the Tigers have one big match remaining on their schedule, their annual tilt with UT-Tyler. The Pats shouldn’t pose much of a threat to the Tigers, but you never know. TU will be working hard in their little corning of Texas, and hopefully a team ready to take a shot at a national championship will emerge at the end of the season.

#4 Whitman

Wins: Redlands, Tyler, UCSC, Whittier

Losses: Trinity, Case Western, Kenyon Bowdoin

Whitman had a Spring Break to forget. They very nearly salvaged it after sweeping Bowdoin in dubs, but their freshmen at #2 and #3 couldn’t come through against their more experienced counterparts. I was criticized for being too harsh on the Whitties in the Power Rankings, but, as usual, I was right to question their youth. One freshman, Hewlin, has held his own at #2, but another, Friedman, is punching a little above his weight class at #3. Locklear, Whitman’s other newcomer, went from going 3-0 at #3 over the Walla Walla quad to 0-4 against ranked teams this spring break at #5. The problem is probably between his ears, but this is what happens when you have three legitimate upperclassmen on your whole team (Locklear doesn’t count because he hasn’t been in the program). Among bright spots, the seniors Malesovas/Rivers have been rock solid at #1, and the #2 team of Hewlin/Hoeger seem to have captured some of the magic that won them the ITA Regional in the Fall. The sophomore Jivkov at #4 may be the strongest singles spot in the lineup, and Malesovas is clearly having his best singles year in his senior season. If the newbies can grow up in a hurry, Whitman could pose some problems for a team like Emory or Hopkins at the end of the season, but they’ve got to get some work done in Walla Walla. First, they have to take care of business in an improved conference.

#5 Redlands

Wins: Tyler, Cruz, Mary Washington, Wesleyan

Losses: Whitman, Bowdoin

Sometimes, I feel like we are unduly tough on Redlands for losing close matches. If I can borrow from my Intro to Psych class, I would say that this is confirmation bias. Example: we didn’t say anything about Redlands winning close matches when they toppled Mary Wash and Wesleyan, but we harped on them when they lost to Bowdoin. That being said, serving for the team match against a Pool C team like Bowdoin and losing is absolutely devastating. Though Redlands may not be making the post-season this year, they still have a very solid team. They’re basically a poor man’s Pomona-Pitzer right now, as their doubles is great and they rely a lot on their top two singles players. Their depth is always a question, but Leahy is a strong #6. Looking forward, they can’t overlook Pacific and Chapman, but they should be able to take out the Boxers and the Panthers on their home courts. Then, they’ve got a shot at redemption in matches against Midd and Williams

#6 UT-Tyler

Wins: Cruz, Coe

Losses: Whitman, Redlands

So far this year, Tyler is doing what Tyler does: they’re working hard an taking care of business against lesser teams, but they’re not surprising anyone with a big victory. Among non-California West region teams, Tyler has the meatiest remaining schedule: they’ve got a quad with Wash U, UW-W, and Chicago in early April and their annual Trinity match. The Pats beat Coe in impressive fashion over Spring Break, which gives me hope that they’ll be able to beat Whitewater at the very least, but I have a hard time believing they can take down a team like Chicago or Wash U. Budd has picked up a couple impressive wins lately over Sprinkel and Aboitiz (from McMurry), while the Fischer/Wootton duo continues to play like a top #1 doubles team. Additionally, Tyler’s depth seems to be better than predicted with Elwood and Puckey filling in admirably after Spencer’s graduation. Ultimately, there’s not much to say about these guys until we see how they do in April. They’ve got to take care of business in their conference, and Fischer/Wootton have to win every single doubles match they play against West region foes to stay in the drivers’ seat for nationals. It’s nice to see a West region team overachieve for once: oh wait, that’s what we alway do.

#7 UC Santa Cruz

Wins: Whittier, Cal Lutheran

Losses: Tyler, Whitman, Redlands, Kenyon

The Slugs have been playing, much, much better since they got back from Walla Walla, but they missed their golden opportunity to hop into the top 20 (or even top 15) when they lost to Kenyon in a 3rd set tiebreaker. Unfortunately, that may have been their best chance to get into the top 20 this season, as their only remaining matches against ranked teams are Midd, CMS, and Pomona-Pitzer. Middlebury didn’t inspire confidence with their play against Chapman yesterday, so that’s probably Cruz’ best chance, but they’ll still be massive underdogs tomorrow. Littlejohn and Richter have an outside shot at playing their way into doubles matches. Otherwise, they have to be wary of a dangerous Pacific team, and they’ll hope for a favorable draw to get a rematch with Whitman or Tyler at nationals or something so they can improve their national ranking heading into the offseason.

#8 Cal Lutheran

Wins: Brandeis, Chapman

Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Santa Cruz, Trinity (CT), Skidmore

Cal Lu is a team headed in the wrong direction. The only thing keeping them in the top 30 at this point is a win over an injury-laden Brandeis team. Their match against Chapman was incredibly close: they won 7-5 in the third at #6 singles to clinch it before #2 went on where I feel the Panthers would’ve been favored in the deciding match. We’re still waiting on the return of Treacy, who could really transform this team, especially with his doubles prowess, but he’s already missed the bulk of Cal Lu’s schedule. If he comes back, the Kingsmen could give Redlands and Chicago trouble. Without him, they’re going down. I don’t want to think about what’s going to happen to this team with Cardenas, Treacy, Knight, and Slater graduate this year *shudder*.

#9 Chapman

Wins: Rochester, Vassar

Losses: Pomona-Pitzer, Brandeis, Bowdoin, Amherst, Cal Lu, Middlebury

When looking at this team at the beginning of the season, I didn’t realize the elder Justin Thompson would still be around. Him being there makes this Chapman team completely different. The younger Justin P. Thompson is a very solid #2, and has a bright future at #1 ahead of him. Sophomore Charlie Werman is having himself a season in both singles in doubles. He provided the lone singles point for Chapman in their matches against both Midd and Cal Lu. This is a big week for them when it comes to maintaining their ranking, as they face a couple NWC teams looking for their first ranked wins in program history. Unfortunately, these guys have nowhere to go but down, as they’ve already exhausted their opportunities against teams ranked higher than them in the regular season. If they can beat Whittier, they can look forward to a rematch with Cal Lu in the first round of the SCIAC tournament.

#10 Pacific

Wins: George Fox, Lewis and Clark

Losses: Whitman

When non-Whitman NWC teams come south for Spring Break, they typically get spanked repeatedly and mercilessly. Pacific is the first team since PLU that I’ve been even remotely optimistic about. They’re playing Midd today, which should be a good warm up loss before they get into the more important matches against RPI, Redlands and Santa Cruz. I don’t think they have a real shot against the Dawgs, but they could put a scare into the Slugs, so that will be a match I keep an eye on. Battaglia has an outside shot at making singles nationals if he can take down both Lipscomb and Littlejohn. He already has a win over Hewlin on his resume.

#11, #12, #13: George Fox, Whittier, McMurry

George Fox has taken doubles leads on Whitman, Pacific, and Vassar, but they lost all three of those matches. They play Chapman and RPI this week, where they’ll be be underdogs. Whittier has lost seven straight matches, and, with their upcoming schedule, they might not win another match this season. Occidental will probably be their best shot at a victory. McMurry is better than their lack of ranking, but they won’t have a chance to prove it this season after they got smoked by Coe without their #1 singles player.

Singles

As I mentioned above, individual regional rankings come out for the first time this week. Below, I have the players listed as I would ranked them right now followed by where I think they’ll end up by the time the season ends (in parentheses)

Virtual Locks

1. (1) Warren Wood (CMS) – Wood hasn’t gotten much regional play in, but he’s pretty much a lock as well. He routined Hudson and has a ton of regional tennis left to play.

2. (2) Adam Krull (TU) – Krull has a handfull of good wins from the Fall and wins over Malesovas and Hudson from spring break. He’s pretty much a lock. The loss to Cardenas wasn’t great, but a win over Budd would surely put him in the tourney.

3. (3) Skyler Butts (CMS) – Butts is undefeated and has a three-set win over Cardenas on his regional resume. If history has taught us anything, it’s that CMS’ #2 singles play is almost surely getting into the tournament. I don’t see any reason why this will change.

Work Left To Do

4. (5) Colton Malesovas (Whitman) – Malesovas is in excellent position. His only regional loss came against Krull and he only has conference foes on his schedule. If he wins out, he’s in, but that’s a lot of pressure in an improved NWC.

5. (6) Moises Cardenas (CLU) – Cardenas is another guy who will almost surely make it. He’s got wins over Krull, Hudson, Littlejohn, and Thompson, but losses to Butts and Dancu make him less than a lock. As long as he goes chalk the rest of the way, he’ll make it.

6. (10) Jake Yasgoor (P-P) – Looking only at regional resumes, Yaz is in better position to make nationals than Hudson, as he’s got a win over Dancu. It’s hard to make nationals as a #2, but if he keeps winning, there’s no reason he shouldn’t. A win over Butts would’ve done wonders for him, but he’ll have to play well the rest of the season.

7. (11) Josh Dancu (Occidental) – Dancu is looking good right now with wins over Cardenas and Thompson. His only regional loss came against Yaz, and there’s not a ton of regional tennis on his schedule. If he can win against Willamette, Lewis and Clark, and Whittier, it might be enough to get him in. A win over Lipscomb or Wood would definitely get him in.

8. (4) Patrick Lipscomb (Redlands) – Lipscomb will almost surely end up making nationals, but his current regional resume has him on the bubble, as his wins are over Littlejohn and Budd, and he has a loss to Malesovas.

9. (8) Connor Hudson (P-P) – Hudson has a bunch of good wins this season, but his best regional victory was a win over Justin Thompson in a 10-pointer. He needs to win in some of these key SCIAC matches to assure himself a place at nationals despite the fact that he’s playing #1 for the second best team in the West.

10. (7) Nic Marino (CMS) – I’m not sure what the criteria are for a #3 singles player making the tournament. If he goes undefeated and makes a decent run at Ojai, he’ll probably make it. My ranking is low right now only because he hasn’t played much regional tennis

11. (9) Joe Dorn (CMS) – See above.

Dark Horses

12. (13) Giancarlo Battaglia (Pacific) – Battaglia, despite losing to Ozarks the other day, is still undefeated in the West region and has a win over Hewlin on his record. He’s got matches with Malesovas, Lipscomb, and Littlejohn coming up. Winning 2/3 would probably be enough to get him into nationals, but it’s a tall task.

13. (12) Aaron Skinner (TU) – Skinner probably isn’t making nationals, but he deserves to be in the conversation. The three-set loss to Yaz is going to doom him.

14. (14) Daniel Budd (UT-T) – Budd is definitely on the outside looking in after going 0-3 in Walla Walla, but a win over Krull might be enough to get him in.

Doubles

It is so difficult to predict what’s going to happen in doubles that I’m just going to write a few sentences about the teams that are in contention. A lot will surely change between now and the end of the year, but these are my favorites.

My Top Four

1. Wood/Dorn (CMS) – These two haven’t seen much regional action, but their wins over P-P and CLU are good. It’s only a matter of time before they play more regional competition

2. Chudalavada (P-P) – The Fall national finalists have been sporadic this Spring, but wins over CLU and Trinity have them in good position.

3. Fischer/Wootton (Tyler) – Undefeated in the region with wins over Whitman, Redlands, and Cruz. If they beat Trinity, they’re in for sure. If not, they’ll have to wait and be nervous.

4. Skinner/Mayer (TU) – The Fall National Champs have picked up losses to P-P, Whitman, and CLU in regional matches this Spring. It’s hard to know how far Fall results will take them.

In the Conversation

Butts/Mork (CMS) – If last year taught us anything, it’s that a #2 team can make nationals. These guys have to go undefeated to even have a chance. I don’t particularly like the idea of putting a #2 team in nationals, but if anyone deserves it, it’s these guys.

Lipscomb/Cummins (Redlands) – Wins over Whitman and Cruz so far. Lots of West region matches on their schedule. These guys are in control of their destiny at the very least

Cardenas/Knight (CLU) – These two beat Chapman and Trinity’s #1’s, but they were united after Cardenas and a couple other partners picked up some losses. Lots of tennis left to be played

Littlejohn/Richter (UC Santa Cruz) – Lost twice at SBWW and lost to Whittier’s #1s, but they still have plenty of matches on their schedule and wins over CLU and Whitman on their resume.

Malesovas/Rivers (Whitman) – The only way these guys get in is if they go to Ojai. They were reunited after Hewlin/Hoeger struggled at the beginning of the season and have since beaten Pacific, Trinity, and Whittier. They need to win a lot.

This Week In West

Intraregional

March 24 – Pacific vs. Redlands

Pacific has a very nice spring break lined up, particularly if they’re interested in giving Battaglia his best chance at making nationals. Good scheduling doesn’t mean they’re good enough to take advantage of it, however, and the Lipscomb/Cummins combo should be enough to neutralize Pacific’s strength at the top. I’m taking Redlands 6-3 with wins at 1 and 3 doubles, 1, 2, 3, and 6 singles.

March 25 – CMS vs. UCSC

This was once a phenomenal rivalry, but it has obviously lost its luster in recent years. Still, expect the Slugs to come out fired up in doubles. I will be particularly interested to see if Littlejohn/Richter can get another doubles win over CMS. Unfortunately for them, CMS is just too deep, experienced, and talented. I’ll take an 8-1 CMS victories with Cruz’ win coming at #1 dubs.

March 26 – Pacific vs. UCSC

This is a legitimately intriguing match. UCSC demonstrated a penchant for losing doubles matches when underestimating their opponent (see Whittier match), and Pacific doesn’t have the obvious weak spots previous NWC #2’s have had. Still, the fact that I’m writing this means that UCSC is aware of the upset potential the Boxers pose. The Slugs will play with energy and pull out a close 5-4 win here with victories at 1 and 2 doubles, 2, 3, and 6 singles.

March 28 – UCSC vs. Pomona-Pitzer

As we saw last week, no match is safe for the Sagehens. Given the fact that P-P will be coming off a double-header, there’s a pretty good chance someone will be sitting, and we’ve seen how vulnerable the Hens are when either Yaz or Chuddy sits. If the Slugs can get on top of the Hens in doubles, this could get close. Nevertheless, I’m leaning towards the Hens to take 2 and 3 doubles with relative ease and then cruise to a 6-3 P-P victory with wins at 1, 2, 4, and 6.

March 28 – Chapman vs. Redlands

I don’t actually think this match will be all that close, but I’m going to write something about it because these are two ranked teams in my region. When Chapman has given ranked teams trouble this year, they’ve won on the doubles court, and Redlands’ dubs have been consistently excellent. Redlands should win with ease a 1 and 3 doubles. I’ll take Chapman at #2 to keep things close. After that, the Dawgs should roll in singles, but I’ll take Werman at #4 to give Redlands a 7-2 victory.

April 3 – CMS vs. Redlands

The only drama in this match will come on the individual front. Lipscomb and Wood have had some battles, but Wood has always come out on top, and I think that will be the case again here. Redlands could do themselves a big favor at #1 doubles with a win here, but I don’t believe they’ve ever come close to taking out the Wood/Dorn combo either. I’m going to take CMS with a 9-0 sweep.

Interregional

March 23 – UCSC vs. Middlebury. Prediction: Middlebury 6-3

March 24 – Pomona-Pitzer vs. Middlebury. Prediciton: Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

March 25 – Cal Lutheran vs. Chicago. Prediction: Chicago 7-2

March 25 – Redlands vs. Middlebury. Prediction: Middlebury 5-4

March 25 – Pomona-Pitzer vs. Williams. Prediction: Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

March 27 – Pomona-Pitzer vs. Chicago. Prediction: Pomona-Pitzer 5-4

March 27 – CMS vs. Middlebury. Prediction: CMS 7-2

April 1 – CMS vs. Williams. Prediction: Williams 5-4

This Week In West Region History

The Trinity Quad – 2011

After riding excellent doubles to the quarterfinals in 2010, TU entered the 2011 season with a senior-heavy lineup and high hopes. Their hopes were so high that they ponied up some dough to attract CMS, Cruz, and Wash U to San Antonio, and the four top 10 teams competed in what became one of the best Quads in DIII tennis history. The home crowd was R-O-W-D-Y, but it wasn’t enough for the home team. On the first day, Parizher (Wash U) took out Halabi (Cruz) in a third set to give Wash U a 5-4 win over Cruz, while CMS thumped the hosts. On the second day, Woods (Wash U) beat Cocanougher (TU) 7-6 in the third to give Wash U a 5-4 win. That same day, Cruz shocked the country by recovering from a doubles deficit to beat CMS 5-4 with two three-setters. The next day, Cruz narrowly avoided a sweep and withstood a furious TU comeback to win 5-4 the, with the clincher coming from Koenig over Cocanougher 6-4 in the third. CMS also won a couple three-setters to take out Wash U in a barn-burning 6-3 match.

5 thoughts on “This Week in West: March 23 – Whenever

  1. Anon

    Love this kind of analysis and depth! Really amazing stuff that the blog and players alike should be excited about. I thought this article was totally on point…until predicting Williams to upset CMS? Anyone else reeeally not convinced? Definitely would like the writer to back this one up.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      he thinks he’s funny and does this every year.. check the date 🙂

  2. LoveD3Tennis

    I don’t know how many singles and doubles players qualify for nationals in each region, which is useful information to know while reading about the chances of the singles and doubles players mentioned above getting into nationals. Probably many other readers don’t know, as well. It would be great if the author could provide that information by responding to this post.

    BTW, a great article. You really know your stuff.

    1. D3AtlanticSouth

      It’s 8 Singles players and 4 Doubles teams from each region.

    2. D3West

      Frankly, I’m astounded that you could read this blog for four years without knowing this, but you are correct that it may not be common knowledge. 8 singles players and 4 doubles teams qualify, which made CMS’ 4 singles qualifications and 2 doubles teams qualifications that much more impressive last year.

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