The A-South Does Pittsburgh

ASouth, here. While I’m not working on coordinating that thing called the Recruting Hub, I’m supposed to be writing articles about the Atlantic South. While I don’t really have that many teams, all 4 of my teams were in the top 20 in this past ITA rankings and that makes me at least a little bit proud.  A majority of the attention will be on the NESCAC this weekend but that does NOT mean there are not other important matches happening in the AS. In fact, three of my teams are playing this weekend, all in the same place.  That place happens to be Pittsburgh, PA. I just checked the weather forecast in Pittsburgh and somehow it’s snowing today and is 60 degrees on Saturday. It’s also 70 degrees on Sunday. What the hell?  Anyways, CMU will be playing Mary Washington on Saturday and Hopkins on Sunday. That’s really all there is to it, so here are my thoughts on both matches.

#10 CMU vs. #24 Mary Washington

I’m not going to do that fancy thing that D3West does where he lists out Power 6 and projected lineups and stuff, but I will give my thoughts. I’ll break it down into a few categories so I don’t have to go match by match.

Injuries – A key story here has to be the injuries that have occurred for both teams. Michael Rozenvasser of CMU has been in and out of the lineup for the Tartans, and the last time we saw him play was on the losing side of a match versus Glenn Hull of CMS.  He didn’t play last week against Kenyon and there’s really no reason to believe that he’ll be back.  The Tartans shouldn’t miss the big lefty in this match, however, because of a potential injury to a Mary Washington player. That player is none other than Brandon Griffin, who happens to be UMW’s best player and currently a NCAA qualifier. Griffin has been missing the past few weekends, including last week’s loss against a struggling Swarthmore team. The loss of Griffin basically moves every UMW player up into a position where they are not accustomed to, and the team really isn’t deep enough to be able to muster up enough strength to combat the Tartans talent.  Even without Rozenvasser, CMU has multiple contributors at the bottom of the lineup to combat that. UMW just does not right now.

CMU’s Lineup – CMU has shuffled around their lineup from #2-6 basically all year this year. This is a little because of the injury to Rozenvasser and a little because they haven’t found consistent options at #4-6 as well.  They have the talent to win those matches, but finding a rock at those positions is key.  Last week, we saw Vayum Arora and Kiril Kirkov at the #5-6 spots, and expect to see something similar this week.  At #4, Mark Prettyman has simply shown he might be just a tad bit raw for playing that high in the lineup. He’s given up a few leads this year and could really use this match as a confidence booster.  CMU doesn’t give me the feel of a top 10 team right now despite their ranking and they really need their bottom of the lineup to be rock solid to scare anyone in the top 10.

Prediction – This is a bit of a boring prediction, but I honestly don’t think that CMU/UMW will be that interesting especially with no Griffin in the mix. CMU played some decent doubles last weekend and it will be interesting to see Levine/Arora. They’ve had an up and down year and the team really goes where Arora will take them. If he’s playing well, they are a NCAA caliber team. If not, they are a middle of the pack team at best.  CMU should have the advantage at #3 doubles and they’ll probably split the rest, with a very important regional ranking spot on the line at #1 doubles.  After that, I only see UMW having the goods to win one singles spot, potentially with a nice win by a #3 or #4 player over Zheng or Prettyman, both of whom lost against Kenyon.  7-2 is my prediction for CMU.

#10 CMU vs. #15 Hopkins

This is the premiere match of the weekend for my region and I’m always excited about these two teams rekindling a rivalry that they do every year.  If you want a brief history lesson, CMU took out this Hopkins (I believe 6-3) in the regular season last year, only to be beaten by them on their home courts when it really counted – the Sweet 16.  This is something I mentioned last year, but this match always seems to tilt in Hopkins favor if the match is played indoors. Dubin gets his notorious indoors boost and the bottom players in the Hopkins lineup feed off that momentum and end up taking matches that I wouldn’t favor for them. Luckily for the Tartans, it looks like Sunday will be nice and sunny and I’m sure that they will try everything that they can to get this match outside.

What it Means – This match means way more to CMU then it does Hopkins, as it always does when a Pool C plays a Pool A team. This is CMUs last chance to get a top 20 win for their struggling resume. While they have the ITA ranking behind them, they simply don’t have many quality wins. A win over Hopkins would give them at least another one. Also, a loss would severely damage their Pool C hopes and they’d have to probably take the 3rd place match in UAAs to make the tournament. So, basically the Tartans are dodging bullets until the UAA tournament.

For Hopkins, this obviously doesn’t mean as much, but from a team perspective I think it does. My knowledge of the Hopkins team says that these are the types of matches the Jays get super serious for. They want to prove to the rest of the nation that they can hang with the top 10 teams. This is their first chance to do that, with Emory happening next week. Currently ranked at #20, this is their chance to potentially sneak a #1 seed if they beat the Tartans. That’s a big deal because they could host and potentially get a team like W&L as their #2 seed. So, this match means something for the Jays.

Why CMU will win – Because they are the team that’s been battle tested this year and also have a lot of talent to spare. Their doubles is going to be tested here and they need to figure out what that looks like if they are going to win this match. Also, their bottom of the lineup in Arora and Kirkov will be looking to continue some momentum from last week. CMU lucks out because the Hopkins middle of the lineup is similar to theirs. CMU should win this match, especially at home, where the Jays have not historically played well on the outdoor courts.

Why Hopkins will win – As I already mentioned, if this match is indoors I can see Hopkins taking it to the Tartans. However, it doesn’t look like it will be so they’ll have to find a way outdoors. Hopkins has star power on their side as MVP Buxbaum can take two matches at any point in time. This would counter the fact that Levine has basically been an MVP for the Tartans this year as well. Whoever wins that matchup might win the match. Buxbaum is a senior and has been through this many times. If he goes into MVP mode, Hopkins has the upper hand. Also, a key player will be David Perez, who seems to be playing 3 or 4 singles. I don’t know if Prettyman will contour to play for the Tartans but that’s a winnable match. This one is going to go down to the wire.

Prediction – This match is going 5-4 either way in my eyes and if it doesn’t, kudos to the team that does better and wins. CMU absolutely needs this match and hasn’t really given us a reason to be confident in them over the past three weeks. Hopkins hasn’t been a team that I’ve had confidence in in the regular season in years. This is going to be very interesting and while it pains me to say this, I believe CMU steps up and keeps Hopkins in the low 2 seed range with a 5-4 CMU victory. This sets up a potential for these two teams to meet again in the Sweet 16 if both teams make it. That’d be pretty awesome. ASouth, OUT.